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NFC Scout on Gabbert


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#151 TheRealDeal

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 06:47 PM

11 teams have an elite QB - will not pick one early
5 teams have spent a 1st rounder in the last two years - will not pick early
7 teams have a decent and consistent vet - will not pick early
1 team has a young rookie who played well - will not pick early
1 team has a young borderline QB - could pick early
1 team has an over achieving vet - likely to pick early
6 teams have no established starters - will pick early

Essentially the questions to be asked are:

* Will Miami stick with Henne another year with a new OC?
* Did Gailey think enough of Fitzpatrick to keep him as their starter?

As there are only really 6 teams that need to pick in the top two rounds, they will be safe in the knowledge that they can pick another thinner position (relative, I think the QB class is weaker but more at a similar level) in round 1, then go QB in round 2.

Since 2006 there has been an average of:
* 2.4 draft in the 1st
* 1.8 drafted in the 2nd
* 1 drafted in the 3rd

Since 2006 there has never been more than 3 QBs drafted in the 1st round and never more than 5 taken in the first 2 rounds.

So on average we should expect either the 4th or 5th best QB to be available at the top of the 3rd. There are on average 11.25 QBs picked in the draft since 2006.


I think having 11 elite QBs in the league is an overstatement and misuse of the word.

#152 Urrymonster

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 06:51 PM

I think having 11 elite QBs in the league is an overstatement and misuse of the word.


Misuse of the word really. Essentially I meant, players who are considered 'franchise' QBs and are playing well. Just needed a shorter way of saying it.

You really do pick on tiny things people say rather than thinking about the overall content.

#153 mav1234

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 06:54 PM

If 5 QBs are drafted in the first 2 rounds we're already out of all decent projected prospects and knee deep into a great of people who have a lot of unknowns, barring combine workouts.

There's really only a "top 4 QB prospects" in this draft. There's a dropoff after that.

I should have said "I could see all 4 going in the first/second round", rather than the top 5, because I'm not sold who that fifth is exactly, haha.

#154 Urrymonster

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 07:05 PM

If 5 QBs are drafted in the first 2 rounds we're already out of all decent projected prospects and knee deep into a great of people who have a lot of unknowns, barring combine workouts.

There's really only a "top 4 QB prospects" in this draft. There's a dropoff after that.

I should have said "I could see all 4 going in the first/second round", rather than the top 5, because I'm not sold who that fifth is exactly, haha.


Well if 5 are picked in the first two rounds, then that is beyond the averages. Usually at the start of the third round the 4th or 5th QB is picked.

Of the declared players Gabbert, Locker and Mallett are considered 1st round prospects. Cam Newton would likely slide in there as well, or early 2nd.

In 2010 Bradford, Clausen 1st round, The Golden Calf of Bristol and McCoy rated as 1st-2nd round QB prospects, Pike 2-3rd round.

In 2009 Stafford, Sanchez and Freeman were all rated 1st round, White 2nd round.

In 2008 Ryan & Brohm were rated 1st round, Henne 1st-2nd round, Flacco 2nd, Woodson 2-3rd, Josh Johnson 3rd.

Other than 2009 each draft saw highly rated prospects drop a round at least.

If I were to guess, Gabbert will go top 10, Locker will go top 20, Newton will be touch and go at either late first or early to mid second. Mallett would likely drop. There is still Ponder who is rated a 3rd round prospect even if none of the others drop.

#155 TheRealDeal

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 07:06 PM

Misuse of the word really. Essentially I meant, players who are considered 'franchise' QBs and are playing well. Just needed a shorter way of saying it.

You really do pick on tiny things people say rather than thinking about the overall content.


Those are important details though. I understood your point but I just can't let stuff like that go. Maybe I'm OCD about QBs but there are maybe 5-6 elite QBs and a few other good ones. Most are just average but look better or worse based on situations around them and players around them.

#156 KillerKat

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 07:34 PM

I have never heard of Gabbert until Luck didn't declare

#157 mav1234

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 07:38 PM

I have never heard of Gabbert until Luck didn't declare


How much do you pay attention to college quarterbacks? He was getting some press when Mizzou was undefeated earlier in the year and he has been one of the top QBs the last two years, tho obviously much lower last year.

#158 Urrymonster

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 07:41 PM

I have never heard of Gabbert until Luck didn't declare


http://www.cbssports...players/1630777

#159 KillerKat

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 07:41 PM

Not much but usually during the offseason you hear about the top choices. I heard about Newton, Mallett, Locker, and Luck. Now that Luck didn't declare, suddenly this asshole's name pops up and he's suddenly better than the other 3 (not including Luck) that had gotten more attention.

#160 mav1234

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 07:44 PM

Not much but usually during the offseason you hear about the top choices. I heard about Newton, Mallett, Locker, and Luck. Now that Luck didn't declare, suddenly this asshole's name pops up and he's suddenly better than the other 3 (not including Luck) that had gotten more attention.


Almost no-one thought Gabbert would declare this year for whatever reason. He was in the conversation, but he was below Mallett, Locker, and Luck. Locker was expected to keep pace with Luck and show he would be a franchise guy, with Mallett as the big risk/reward guy, and Gabbert was the steady guy nobody really expected to come out so soon. I personally heard absolutely nothing about Newton when it comes to draft stock this last offseason so maybe it's a regional difference?