11 teams have an elite QB - will not pick one early
5 teams have spent a 1st rounder in the last two years - will not pick early
7 teams have a decent and consistent vet - will not pick early
1 team has a young rookie who played well - will not pick early
1 team has a young borderline QB - could pick early
1 team has an over achieving vet - likely to pick early
6 teams have no established starters - will pick early
Essentially the questions to be asked are:
* Will Miami stick with Henne another year with a new OC?
* Did Gailey think enough of Fitzpatrick to keep him as their starter?
As there are only really 6 teams that need to pick in the top two rounds, they will be safe in the knowledge that they can pick another thinner position (relative, I think the QB class is weaker but more at a similar level) in round 1, then go QB in round 2.
Since 2006 there has been an average of:
* 2.4 draft in the 1st
* 1.8 drafted in the 2nd
* 1 drafted in the 3rd
Since 2006 there has never been more than 3 QBs drafted in the 1st round and never more than 5 taken in the first 2 rounds.
So on average we should expect either the 4th or 5th best QB to be available at the top of the 3rd. There are on average 11.25 QBs picked in the draft since 2006.
I think having 11 elite QBs in the league is an overstatement and misuse of the word.