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Hypothetical trade scenario


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#1 MHS831

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Posted 19 February 2011 - 03:25 PM

Arizona wants Newton in the worst possible way. They see that Denver could trade with Miami, Washington, or Tennessee, and Buffalo or Cincinnati are likely to take Newton before the 5th pick. So they decide to trade up to assure them of getting Newton. They call Marty, still sensitive about getting horse-laughed for trading up for a small school QB exactly a year earlier. "Marty, we would like to trade up. We offer you our first (5th overall), our second (35th overall) and third (66th overall) rounders and our first rounder in 2012. (That is about equal trade value when compared to previous years and the commonly accepted trade chart)."

Marty makes the trade.

Now we have the 5th pick. Newton goes first, then Fairley, then Bowers, then a surprise-Quinn fourth.

The Panthers are on the clock. The Panthers have the following high on their board: AJ Green, Patrick Peterson, Marcell Dareus, and Blaine Gabbert.

Oh yeah. The Panthers decided to trade Steve Smith--Rivera wanted him out and SS wanted to go. They are given the 60th overall pick (New England) in a trade. They are also trading Deangelo Williams to the Dolphins for their third rounder and a conditional pick no lower than a third rounder in 2012.


Who would you pick?

#2 1989

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Posted 19 February 2011 - 03:49 PM

Whoa... thats way too much to move up 5 spots. That would literally never happen.

#3 Ohio

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Posted 19 February 2011 - 03:52 PM

You'd take AJ Green, the best player on the board, and in the NFC South you need offense to keep up.

#4 Matt Moore

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Posted 19 February 2011 - 04:15 PM

that's really... hypothetical

#5 OneBadassCat

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Posted 19 February 2011 - 04:16 PM

That's just too much complicated hypothetical poo(that will never happen) for me to care.

#6 jramsey4

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Posted 19 February 2011 - 04:17 PM

Whoa... thats way too much to move up 5 spots. That would literally never happen.


Not when your moving from 5th overall to 1st. The Giants gave up the 4th (or I guess it was Rivers but thats semantics) overall and there 3rd as well as a 1st and 5th in 05 for Manning in 04. If anything I think it is low compensation considering a rookie cap may be in place (of course that isn't guaranteed). I think someone will fall in love with Newton so if we don't want him the best course of action is to trade back.

#7 MHS831

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Posted 19 February 2011 - 04:17 PM

Whoa... thats way too much to move up 5 spots. That would literally never happen.


Not really. Trade value chart and NFL draft history say it is in line. I thought so too, but the NFL trade value chart, which is a rough barometer, has the #1 pick valued at 3000 points. (the median 1st rounder is about 1000 points). The fifth overall pick is 1700 points, leaving 1300 points. Since the second rounder and third rounders total 800 points, that leaves 500 points. WHen trading future picks, the rule of thumb is to drop a round. 500 points is upper second round, so it would equate to a 2012 first rounder (everette brown, Armanti edwards, eg.)

Here is the chart:
http://www.drafttek....tradechart.html

Defending your point, the #1 pick in 2011 is probably not worth that. Maybe so, and the Panthers would have to adjust. However, that depends on the rookie cap and the number of desperate teams wanting Newton.

This has nothing to do with the question, "who would you pick?" The details of the trade are irrelevent, except for establishing needs and future picks in this draft. If you want to drop the 2012 pick to a second rounder, we can.

#8 MHS831

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Posted 19 February 2011 - 04:21 PM

Not when your moving from 5th overall to 1st. The Giants gave up the 4th (or I guess it was Rivers but thats semantics) overall and there 3rd as well as a 1st and 5th in 05 for Manning in 04. If anything I think it is low compensation considering a rookie cap may be in place (of course that isn't guaranteed). I think someone will fall in love with Newton so if we don't want him the best course of action is to trade back.


To me the difference between 5 and 1 is amazing. I agree that someone will fall in love with Newton. Three teams at the top who need a QB and will not have to sell the farm to move up. They are already researching him, so I know that a trade is something they are considering. I hope he does well at the combine.

#9 OneBadassCat

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Posted 19 February 2011 - 04:22 PM

Arizona wants Newton in the worst possible way. They see that Denver could trade with Miami, Washington, or Tennessee, and Buffalo or Cincinnati are likely to take Newton before the 5th pick. So they decide to trade up to assure them of getting Newton. They call Marty, still sensitive about getting horse-laughed for trading up for a small school QB exactly a year earlier. "Marty, we would like to trade up. We offer you our first (5th overall), our second (35th overall) and third (66th overall) rounders and our first rounder in 2012. (That is about equal trade value when compared to previous years and the commonly accepted trade chart)."

Marty makes the trade.

Now we have the 5th pick. Newton goes first, then Fairley, then Bowers, then a surprise-Quinn fourth.

The Panthers are on the clock. The Panthers have the following high on their board: AJ Green, Patrick Peterson, Marcell Dareus, and Blaine Gabbert.

Oh yeah. The Panthers decided to trade Steve Smith--Rivera wanted him out and SS wanted to go. They are given the 60th overall pick (New England) in a trade. They are also trading Deangelo Williams to the Dolphins for their third rounder and a conditional pick no lower than a third rounder in 2012.


Who would you pick?


Ok I'll play...

Since we lose Steve Smith I draft AJ Green to pair with Gettis and LaFell.

In the second round I'd be watching how many DT's on the board, if they're still there I'll take the best DT available, or I'd go ahead and take OG J. Moffit.

I'd make to sure nab DT Phil Taylor by the 3rd round. Then I'd go BPA with the rest of the 3rd round picks. So essentially we're talking 4 3rd round picks right? 60th overall is right at the tail end of round 2 I believe. We already have 2 3rd round picks this year because of Peppers compensation. So we can take a TE, QB, CB, maybe even a DE.

Craig Cooper is an interesting late round prospect imo that might be worth the
risk.

Edited by OneBadassCat, 19 February 2011 - 04:26 PM.


#10 MHS831

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Posted 19 February 2011 - 04:25 PM

That's just too much complicated hypothetical poo(that will never happen) for me to care.


Then why post anything? Are we supposed to care that you don't? I think this is very possible. Play or go home, but don't heckle from behind the fence.

#11 MHS831

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Posted 19 February 2011 - 04:26 PM

Ok I'll play...

Since we lose Steve Smith I draft AJ Green to pair with Gettis and LaFell.

In the second round I'd be watching how many DT's on the board, if there still there I'll take the best DT available, or I'd go ahead and take OG J. Moffit.

I'd make to sure nab DT Phil Taylor by the 3rd round. Then I'd go BPA with the rest of the 3rd round picks. So essentially we're talking 4 3rd round picks right? 60th overall is right at the tail end of round 2 I believe. We already have 2 3rd round picks this year because of Peppers compensation. So we can take a TE, QB, CB, maybe even a DE.

Craig Cooper is an interesting late round prospect imo that might be worth the
risk.


Now wasn't that fun? What the hell else have we got to do, Bad Ass CAT? I like your points.

I read somewhere that Taylor might go around mid first. I don't see it, but he showed out at the SR bowl.

#12 jramsey4

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Posted 19 February 2011 - 04:40 PM

I think were idiots to trade SS for only a 3rd. Not that I think he is worth more (actually I would be surprised to get that much) but more that he is worth more to our team then that pick. A: He looked average to terrible last year but look what he had as a QB. B: If we trade Smith we then are left with 2 players that have only 1 year of exp and are still even then unproven at best (even if we then drafted Green he would still be a rookie so no vet in our entire reciever corp unless we bring in a FA). He still has the ability to take pressure off our running game if we can only get a good QB to throw to him.

Thats why I like Newton so much. He fits into the new O scheme we are trying to implement perfectly. Great accuracy on the deep throws. Smith has the uncanny ability to adjust to misplaced throws that would be tremendous in the maturation of a young QB. Let Newton play with Lafell (as a possession receiver) and especially with Gettis (who is a big speedy receiver that could be a great down the field target for years to come). And who knows maybe Edwards will eventually come into his own as a slot receiver.

I don't see anyone in this draft that brings as much to the table to this team as Newton especially when our biggest problem over the last half a decade has been QB play.