Jump to content





Photo
- - - - -

Looks like Obama is gonna get reelected


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
22 replies to this topic

#13 2jakefansinva

2jakefansinva

    SENIOR HUDDLER

  • Joined: 25-November 08
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • posts: 5,068
  • Reputation: 803
HUDDLER

Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:19 PM

Lets face it, Obama is going to win. National polls are a JOKE! We have what, nearly 100 million people voting amd im suppose to believe a national poll of 800 people that Romeny is up by 0.9? Lmao, that concept is more laughable than us choking.

Its all about the state polls, Obama is leading Ohio among other crucial staes.

Also, 7/11 has reported Obama coffee cups have outsold Romney cups by 20% and Obama masks for Halloween have also outsold Romney by 20%. Think thats a stupid concept? Halloween mask sales have been accurate of predicting the election 100% of the time dating back to Clinton in 1996.

Damn!...........all the way back to '96

#14 FugginPoo

FugginPoo

    Senior Member

  • Joined: 31-August 11
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • posts: 2,967
  • Reputation: 485
HUDDLER

Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:23 PM

http://www.nationalr...ied-josh-jordan

For all of the polls that are flying out almost hourly now, there are two common trends emerging: Mitt Romney is leading independents by healthy margins, and who holds the overall lead is entirely dependent on the party split within the sample. As of last night, Romney has a razor thin lead of eight tenths of a point nationally against an average Democratic partisan advantage of 4.4 points. In 2008, Barack Obama won the election by 7.2 points (52.9–45.7) and Democrats outnumbered Republicans by eight points. Compared to the average today, Obama has dropped eight points while only losing 2.6 points of the turnout advantage. That is due entirely to Romney’s strength with independent voters, and reason enough to sound the alarm in Chicago.

But of all the polls that have been released, there are two polls that will have Team Obama waking up in a cold sweat knowing that if these polls are even somewhat accurate they might be on the other end of a dramatic victory on Election Day: The party-affiliation polls from Gallup and Rasmussen.

Gallup released a demographic poll of likely voters from October 1 through October 24. The poll is of 9,424 likely voters — a large enough sample that the maximum margin of error is one point. What that means is unlike smaller national polls, this is a very comprehensive poll of the electorate that has much more reliability, especially in the subgroups, than any current national poll. The headline of the poll, “2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008,” would make Team Obama want to pick up the phone and reserve Grant Park for election-night festivities, but looking at the data inside may have them preferring to rent out a Lou Malnati’s so they could drown their sorrows in a deep-dish pizza as the results pour in.

In 2008 Gallup found the party breakdown of the electorate to be 39 percent Democrats, 29 percent Republicans, and 31 percent independents. That ten-point advantage grew to twelve points when independents were asked which party they typically leaned to, with 54 percent identifying as Democrats and 42 percent Republicans.

From that sample, Gallup has predicted Democratic turnout to be ten points higher than Republicans, and that independents would break to Obama. In 2008 Democrats did outperform Republicans by a slightly smaller margin, seven points, and independents did break to Obama by eight points. So while they might have overstated Democratic support slightly, they were able to see the underlying trend which was a huge jump from 2004, an election that was just about even.

In the current tracking poll, Gallup finds the ten-point advantage for Democrats has now turned into a one-point Republican advantage. The current party breakdown is now 35 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans, and 29 percent independents. And just in like 2008, that one-point advantage increases when independents are asked which party they typically lean to, with 49 percent identifying as Republicans and 46 percent Democrats. That number backs up the trends in other polling showing Romney leading among independents by large margins.

To get an idea of what this shift means, I plugged the Gallup 2008 and 2012 partisan numbers into the actual results from the 2008 election. Under Gallup’s breakdown, Obama would have won in 2008 by 9.8 points (he actually won by 7.2), and would eke out a victory against Romney in 2012 by eight tenths of a point.

But here’s why you can feel the panic emanating from Chicago: Romney is currently doing better with independents than Obama did in 2008. Obama won independents by eight, in 2008 while Romney is currently leading by 10.6 points on average. If the independent numbers are entered in to the 2008 results, Romney would have a victory of over four points. Even if Romney does not take any more crossover votes (Democrats who vote Republican and vice versa) than McCain got in 2008, he would still win by over four points on Election Day.

While Team Obama loudly declares that Gallup has to be an outlier, there is one other poll that has been tracking party affiliation every day as well, Rasmussen. Just like Gallup, Rasmussen runs a daily tracking poll with about 1,500 respondents included in the partisan affiliation breakdown. In 2008 Rasmussen found Democrats with a 7.1 percentage point advantage in turnout, which was a perfect prediction of the Democratic turnout margin on Election Day. In September of 2012, Rasmussen has Republicans now edging Democrats by 2.6 percent, with a split of 34 percent Democrats, 37 percent Republicans, and 29 percent independents. Keep in mind that September was a brutal month for Romney between enduring Obama’s post-DNC bounce, the 47 percent video, and the media reaction to his Egypt embassy statement, meaning October, given the debates, could be even stronger than September was for the GOP.

Regardless, taking the Rasmussen partisan breakdown of 2008 and 2012 numbers and plugging them into the actual results gives Obama a seven-point win in 2008 and Romney a half-point victory in 2012. Taking the same scenario as Gallup and moving the independent results to match the current polling average changes Romney’s half-point victory into a 5.7-point victory. (As with Gallup, I’m assuming the Republican and Democrat voting margins stay the same as 2008.)

If these polls are accurate and Romney captures a popular-vote win of four to six points, there is no chance he could lose the Electoral College. In fact, that type of victory would likely yield Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and possibly even some blue states such as Michigan or Minnesota. Overall it would be almost like 2008 in reverse, with Romney taking states many thought would be impossible a month ago.

We will find out in just over a week which pollsters end up right, but anytime you have two surveys with such comprehensive data showing the same trend it is impossible to ignore. And if you had any question as to whether or not Team Obama sees that writing on the wall, you can just watch their recent campaign activity for confirmation. A campaign with a robust, revved-up base does not sharpen attacks on core base issues like abortion, focus interviews on the Daily Show and MTV, and hold rallies almost exclusively on college campuses. There’s just over a week to go and the real battle should be for the middle. Every minute that the Obama campaign can’t make a compelling argument to the middle is a minute lost to Romney and they know it, and it has them terrified.



Panthers win big

#15 CardiacCats

CardiacCats

    Senior Member

  • Joined: 21-August 11
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • posts: 3,384
  • Reputation: 377
HUDDLER

Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:26 PM

dude we're fuged if romney wins he's the worst candidate i've ever seen. i'd rather have george bush back

#16 teeray

teeray

    THE SWAGNIFICENT

  • Joined: 10-January 11
  • posts: 17,951
  • Reputation: 9,690
SUPPORTER

Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:32 PM

Obama is about to get destroyed if following polling internals, particularly the Partisan trends in Gallup and Rasmussen's larger survey(historically dead on). Along with Independent vote going by 10+ point to Romney.

Long story short, Panthers win


National polls don't matter. Romney hasn't led a single poll in Ohio or PA and if he loses Ohio and PA he simply cannot win the electoral vote.

Romney could very well win the popular vote and still lose.

In regards to Gallup this is the first time they have done a likely voter model in a presidential election so they don't have a track record at all, good bad or otherwise.

Among registered voters in Gallup's poll (what they historically have used) Obama leads by one point.

#17 Guest_shitposting_*

Guest_shitposting_*
Guests

Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:35 PM

I honestly have to question anyone running for president that believes this bullshit . With that said, Mitt Romney would convert to any religion in a heartbeat if he thought it would win him the election.

#18 Keith Moons Liver

Keith Moons Liver

    Senior Member

  • Joined: 25-September 11
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • posts: 1,753
  • Reputation: 501
HUDDLER

Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:36 PM

This reminds me of the 2004 election. Terrible incumbent wins only because the other party is too inept to come up with a real alternative. Country is fuged no matter what happens.

#19 FugginPoo

FugginPoo

    Senior Member

  • Joined: 31-August 11
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • posts: 2,967
  • Reputation: 485
HUDDLER

Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:37 PM

National polls don't matter. Romney hasn't led a single poll in Ohio or PA and if he loses Ohio and PA he simply cannot win the electoral vote.

Romney could very well win the popular vote and still lose.

In regards to Gallup this is the first time they have done a likely voter model in a presidential election so they don't have a track record at all, good bad or otherwise.

Among registered voters in Gallup's poll (what they historically have used) Obama leads by one point.


Your not reading what I wrote, this is not the first time Gallup or Rasmussen have done very large Sample size Partisian Trend Surveys and historically they have been very accurate.

The major polls are assuming a D-R Turnout advantage of +4-9 points, BOTH of these survey's have found the actual Electorate to Be atleast R +1 AND Independents favoring GOP by 10 or so point spread.

the Ohio polls with Obama up are all skewed to show a GREATER Democrat Turnout than they had in 2008. The Dems and Obama are not going to turnout better than 2008, anywhere. Historically Ohio has always tracked National vote slightly favoring GOP.


Panthers win, and win big

#20 Guest_shitposting_*

Guest_shitposting_*
Guests

Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:38 PM

This reminds me of the 2004 election. Terrible incumbent wins only because the other party is too inept to come up with a real alternative. Country is fuged no matter what happens.

To be fair it was a serious clown show in the Republican primary. Only Jon Huntsman and Ron Paul seemed reasonable, and they were basically ignored by the base.

#21 GSO_Pantherz

GSO_Pantherz

    Senior Member

  • Joined: 24-November 08
  • PipPipPipPip
  • posts: 941
  • Reputation: 115
HUDDLER

Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:44 PM

Obama is garbage. Four years of no improvement and crippling debt = a reelection. Country is ignorant and moronic, that's what is screwing us.

#22 teeray

teeray

    THE SWAGNIFICENT

  • Joined: 10-January 11
  • posts: 17,951
  • Reputation: 9,690
SUPPORTER

Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:50 PM

Your not reading what I wrote, this is not the first time Gallup or Rasmussen have done very large Sample size Partisian Trend Surveys and historically they have been very accurate.

The major polls are assuming a D-R Turnout advantage of +4-9 points, BOTH of these survey's have found the actual Electorate to Be atleast R +1 AND Independents favoring GOP by 10 or so point spread.

the Ohio polls with Obama up are all skewed to show a GREATER Democrat Turnout than they had in 2008. The Dems and Obama are not going to turnout better than 2008, anywhere. Historically Ohio has always tracked National vote slightly favoring GOP.


Panthers win, and win big


http://fivethirtyeig...election-right/

In Ohio, however, there are not just three polls: roughly a dozen polling firms, rather, have surveyed the state over the past 10 days.
There are no precedents in the database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state when the polling volume was that rich.

Instead, the biggest upsets in states with at least five polls in the average came in 2000, when George W. Bush beat Al Gore in Florida, and in 2008, when John McCain beat Mr. Obama in Missouri. Mr. Obama and Mr. Gore had held leads of 1.3 percentage points in the polling averages of those states.

If you look at the actual track record of state polling averages, it may even seem as though the FiveThirtyEight forecast is being conservative in giving Mr. Obama “only” a 76 percent chance of winning Ohio. I do not necessarily think that is the case.

The state-by-state polling averages have performed very well in recent years, but that is not likely to have been the case in, for example, 1980, when Ronald Reagan substantially beat his polls on Election Day. Years like 1980 are not represented very well in the tables above, because there were few states with rich polling that year. But they are considered by the FiveThirtyEight model, which calibrates its estimates of uncertainty based on the performance of state and national polls dating back to 1968.



#23 rayzor

rayzor

    shula is who i thought he was.

  • Joined: 24-November 08
  • posts: -28,752
  • Reputation: 8,000
Moderators

Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:54 PM

ok..what's with this thread being allowed in the panthers forum?


do mods take the weekend off?