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Looks like Obama is gonna get reelected


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#16 teeray

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:32 PM

Obama is about to get destroyed if following polling internals, particularly the Partisan trends in Gallup and Rasmussen's larger survey(historically dead on). Along with Independent vote going by 10+ point to Romney.

Long story short, Panthers win


National polls don't matter. Romney hasn't led a single poll in Ohio or PA and if he loses Ohio and PA he simply cannot win the electoral vote.

Romney could very well win the popular vote and still lose.

In regards to Gallup this is the first time they have done a likely voter model in a presidential election so they don't have a track record at all, good bad or otherwise.

Among registered voters in Gallup's poll (what they historically have used) Obama leads by one point.

#17 Guest_shitposting_*

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:35 PM

I honestly have to question anyone running for president that believes this bullshit . With that said, Mitt Romney would convert to any religion in a heartbeat if he thought it would win him the election.

#18 Keith Moons Liver

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:36 PM

This reminds me of the 2004 election. Terrible incumbent wins only because the other party is too inept to come up with a real alternative. Country is fuged no matter what happens.

#19 FugginPoo

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:37 PM

National polls don't matter. Romney hasn't led a single poll in Ohio or PA and if he loses Ohio and PA he simply cannot win the electoral vote.

Romney could very well win the popular vote and still lose.

In regards to Gallup this is the first time they have done a likely voter model in a presidential election so they don't have a track record at all, good bad or otherwise.

Among registered voters in Gallup's poll (what they historically have used) Obama leads by one point.


Your not reading what I wrote, this is not the first time Gallup or Rasmussen have done very large Sample size Partisian Trend Surveys and historically they have been very accurate.

The major polls are assuming a D-R Turnout advantage of +4-9 points, BOTH of these survey's have found the actual Electorate to Be atleast R +1 AND Independents favoring GOP by 10 or so point spread.

the Ohio polls with Obama up are all skewed to show a GREATER Democrat Turnout than they had in 2008. The Dems and Obama are not going to turnout better than 2008, anywhere. Historically Ohio has always tracked National vote slightly favoring GOP.


Panthers win, and win big

#20 Guest_shitposting_*

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:38 PM

This reminds me of the 2004 election. Terrible incumbent wins only because the other party is too inept to come up with a real alternative. Country is fuged no matter what happens.

To be fair it was a serious clown show in the Republican primary. Only Jon Huntsman and Ron Paul seemed reasonable, and they were basically ignored by the base.

#21 GSO_Pantherz

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:44 PM

Obama is garbage. Four years of no improvement and crippling debt = a reelection. Country is ignorant and moronic, that's what is screwing us.

#22 teeray

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:50 PM

Your not reading what I wrote, this is not the first time Gallup or Rasmussen have done very large Sample size Partisian Trend Surveys and historically they have been very accurate.

The major polls are assuming a D-R Turnout advantage of +4-9 points, BOTH of these survey's have found the actual Electorate to Be atleast R +1 AND Independents favoring GOP by 10 or so point spread.

the Ohio polls with Obama up are all skewed to show a GREATER Democrat Turnout than they had in 2008. The Dems and Obama are not going to turnout better than 2008, anywhere. Historically Ohio has always tracked National vote slightly favoring GOP.


Panthers win, and win big


http://fivethirtyeig...election-right/

In Ohio, however, there are not just three polls: roughly a dozen polling firms, rather, have surveyed the state over the past 10 days.
There are no precedents in the database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state when the polling volume was that rich.

Instead, the biggest upsets in states with at least five polls in the average came in 2000, when George W. Bush beat Al Gore in Florida, and in 2008, when John McCain beat Mr. Obama in Missouri. Mr. Obama and Mr. Gore had held leads of 1.3 percentage points in the polling averages of those states.

If you look at the actual track record of state polling averages, it may even seem as though the FiveThirtyEight forecast is being conservative in giving Mr. Obama “only” a 76 percent chance of winning Ohio. I do not necessarily think that is the case.

The state-by-state polling averages have performed very well in recent years, but that is not likely to have been the case in, for example, 1980, when Ronald Reagan substantially beat his polls on Election Day. Years like 1980 are not represented very well in the tables above, because there were few states with rich polling that year. But they are considered by the FiveThirtyEight model, which calibrates its estimates of uncertainty based on the performance of state and national polls dating back to 1968.



#23 rayzor

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    shula is who i thought he was.

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:54 PM

ok..what's with this thread being allowed in the panthers forum?


do mods take the weekend off?


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