The problem with you is that you will argue forever making obvious statements which are usually only tangentially related to the topic. For example saying that Dalton is more accurate than Newton is correct if you look at completion percentage. But that argument ignores the fact that across the board WCOs are going to produce higher completion percentages compared to our system for example if all you considered was how many shovel passes and dumpoffs that Dalton has thrown compared to how many handoffs and pitches Newton has made which aren't credited as passes because of the style of offense we run. It is likely that Dalton threw more screens and dump offs than Newton given that Cincinnati threw 66 more passes while throwing fewer deeper balls. But more on that later...
Who said that Newton was running a harder offense? They are different offenses for quarterbacks with different skills and abilities. You make these red herring arguments as if they are the point of the discussion. The issue of which type of pass is harder to make really ignores the fact that Dalton can't throw the deep out with any accuracy. Green makes him look better than he is when he snags a wounded duck out of the air and makes Dalton look like a hero. The reason that Newton is a potential franchise quarterback really rests on his ability to make all the throws and run and elude tacklers so well that he can pressure a defense with his feet and arm. Dalton in his system can be very effective and manage a game much like Jake did for us over the years. Dalton just doesn't seem to be dynamic and a game changer.
When you reported the yards after the catch per completion argument you seemed to omit the critical part which is comparing them based on the number of completions which is a difference of 66 passes. They are within 20 yards of one another in total yards after the catch which for Dalton using your numbers of 5.25 yards after the completion times 296 completons reveals a total of 1554 yards versus Newton who has 6.85 yards ATC times 230 completions or 1575 yards. I suspect the higher average for us is partly due to the routes we throw (seams versus slants for example) and the fact that we passed fewer times. Because we are more of a North South throwing team we concentrate on throwing over the defense instead of throwing under the defense like Dalton. So we could have the same number of big plays with a similar amount of total yards but our average would be higher as a function of completions because we threw the ball fewer times. It likely means we are just more explosive as a function of completions. What it wouldn't mean is that Dalton threw the ball further down the field or had more deep passes. If you figure YAC is equal and look at a more appropriate stat such as the number of 20 yard passes as a function of completions it isn't even close. Newton has completed 48 passes over 20 yards out of a total of 230 completions or 21% of all passes versus Dalton has thrown 33 out of a total of 296 or 11% of all passes. Almost a 2-1 difference. But what would you expect? Dalton plays in an East/West horizontal system with emphasizes short dink and dunk passes down the field. If you compare them on 40 yard passes as a function of completions they are essentially the same: Newton is 10 of 230 (4.4%) versus Dalton who is 13 of 296 or 4.4%.
When you look at how most of Dalton's long completions are going to Green who bails out Dalton on a regular basis, you wonder why Dalton's numbers aren't much better than they are.
The issue here is your numbers aren't germane to the argument and the facts as you describe them are only tangentially related to the real issue. Dalton is good in his system but has distinct limitations. Newton could play in any of the major systems. They are just 2 very different quarterbacks and everyone can think as they like. Just don't waste my time trying to convince me that Newton doesn't have a higher ceiling than Dalton. Anyone who has watched them knows the answer to that outside of Cincinnati or contrarians like you who troll the board looking for an argument.
1. Once again, the idea that overall the WCO is going to produce a higher completion % compared to our system, the spread option,
is just not true and is based on nothing but opinionated drivel, not backed up by any evidence. You accuse me of being tangibly relevant(which I didn't even bring up) or obvious, and yet you say this. This is just flat out pulled out of Teeray's ass.
Compared to a QB who's mainly running a John Fox-like, power running offense, yes, the WCO might do that. Not compared to the spread option
. Every dual rush QB that came out of college, and is running the spread option in the NFL, other than The Golden Calf of Bristol, has tore it up in the completion % department. Even though we go deep, we usually get our guys wiiiide open when the defense is trying to stack the box and defend our running game. This is proven
The idea that we are running the actual Air Coryell is also just not true either so the WCO vs Air Coryell discussion was moot form the get go anyway. We are running the spread option 80% of the time, mostly out of pistol, with a highly concentrated dose of zone read pass/run plays, with very little of what Chud's Air Coryell looked like in San Diego or the original Air Coryell with Dan Foust. Our offense resemble's Auburn offense a lot more than it does the Air Coryell. Go see how many times Dan Foust lined up in the pistol or even shotgun in his career.
Once again, I didn't bring this into the conversation, it was others who have to come up with some explanation of why Dalton would have a higher completion %. All I did is defend the fact Dalton can in fact throw the deep ball. In reality this is just an unnecessary discussion, a completely subjective and opinionated debate when the truth is the QB has the biggest effect on his completion % and opposing defenses. And for the record, Dalton's dealing with both the Steelers and Ravens twice a year, every year. Really the only QBs that are significantly being affected by the low% deep ball right now, is Andrew Luck and Eli Manning.
2. I already listed those total numbers you just did 2 pages back. That's where the discussion actually started, so you are late on that one. I agree, they are almost a wash. The point is, one again, we average more yards after catch per completion. And you are using total passing yards. The only way to figure out who threw more passes through the air downfield is to find those exact stats broken down by AIR passing yards. Drawing conclusion based on completions that include yards after catch is inconclusive. That's why I didn't care to argue Andy's 12 40+ yards completions and Cam's 10 or Cam's 47 20+ yards completions vs Andy's 32. We don't know how they broke down. But I already pointed out, there are
numbers out there for 2011. Dalton was one of only 6 quarterbacks along with other deep ball throwers like Eli and Romo to have at least 15 passes over 30 yards and had the 4th best completion percentage in 2011. Newton attempted more deep balls and completed less. This is a fact.
You and the others keep claiming Dalton is getting advantage in something Cam is too. Once again. Last year, our running back, Stewart, was our #1 "receiver" in yards after catch. He had 508 yards after catch more than even Smith at 474. We were one of overall in yards after catch. Cam had 1975 yards after catch. Dalton's receivers got him 4.8 yac per completion/2.8 per attempt and our guys got Cam 6.1 yac per completion/3.8 per attempt. 48% of Cams passing yards were yards after catch. 42% of Dalton's yards, were yards after catch. This is also a fact. Anyway you look at it, Cam benefited more. So if you want to go there, then who exactly is getting the bigger benefit of padded stats here? Cam was dumping the ball off a lot to his running backs and tight ends last year and still does it this year.
Finally the premise that Dalton couldn't play in another system but Newton could is just a personal opinion not backed by any sort of substantial evidence. This is the same as "ceiling" or "potential" talk and it's silly to box him in and try to limit him to what Jake Delhomme did. He will never be the runner Cam is, that part is obvious. But there's no reason why he can't be a better passer, more clutch, more methodical. Nobody knows this. There's no limit on this.
Also, Dalton ran a similar system Cam ran in college and now Dalton's playing in a different
system. Cam's actually still running a lot of the same plays he ran in college, even this year. In fact Andy ran similar plays that Cam Did in college which were all copied from Urban Myer and The Golden Calf of Bristol anyway. He even ran the inverted deer in college, which Cam used it twice this year
against the Saints.http://smartfootball.../tag/gun-option
So far Dalton's showed he can succeed in two different systems. Spread Option and WCO.
The fact is nobody sits there and breaks down offenses when Comparing QB's stats like completion %, touchdowns, passer rating, yards etc. It's a subjective argument that never gets you anywhere.
The numbers are what they are. Andy's been a better passing QB this year. Not saying he's more productive overall(Cam's TQB is 54 and Andy's is 53), but as a passer, he's been better this year. He's completed at a higher percentage, thrown the ball more, has more passing touchdowns, and not to mention 6 4th quarter comebacks in his career compared to only 2 for Cam. He took his team to the playoffs last year, as a rookie with a rookie #1 wide receiver, in a division dominated by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Ravens defenses, and is in a position to do it again this year. And it has little to do with him being in a more favorable offense, because right now, running the spread option in the NFL is veeeery favorable for anyone with a dual rush QB. He's just been a better passer so far this year. That's all.