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Talent, Math, and Luck


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#31 rayzor

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 09:49 PM

That first paragraph makes me wonder why I'm even bothering to respond but you post a lot and seem to sum up the attitude about the Panthers and Rivera that I find so disagreeable.

So, I'm asking what is this big picture you've seen and why do you have no faith in his ability. Please don't give me quasi ethereal answers like, he's a bad game manager and can't lead. If that's you opinion then give me specifics on why you feel that way. Give me example to support your argument.

I'm not blind to the mistakes the Panthers and Rivera have made but it's the whole black and white, he's sucks, we're doomed, we're one of the worst teams in the NFL with little hope to fix anything due to a losing culture and bad meddling owner.

you must not be reading much of what I've said because I've said it over and over.

there are several things but the biggest thing is end of game management. I'd write it all out for you but I've already don it a lot...probably in this thread even.

it all boils down to what is a perfect example...not the only one, but the best one...the atlanta game.

your offense has been torched all day, your offense has been doing pretty well and you have one of the best short yardage guys in the league in cam and one of the best backfields in the country...it's fourth and one and you punt it away with time left on the clock. that is a mistake that costs more games than it saves. the rules protecting the deep pass make it very easy for a team to go the length of the field in a very short time, or at least far enough to get a FG.

that might have been a good call 10 or even 5 years ago, but today it's not. when you have a lead its very easy for a team to come back. if you want to win, you do one of two things, you either score more than the other team can keep up with or you keep them from scoring and the best way to do that...the only way to ensure it is by keeping the ball out of their hands and keeping it in yours.

teams get too comfortable with a league and too confident in their defenses ability to protect it. just this weekend it cost the broncos their game and almost cost the falcons theirs. its a flaw that most defensive coaches have and its one that rivera has. it has cost us games and will continue to as long as he feels comfortable with any lead and/or his defenses ability to stop them.

#32 rayzor

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 09:54 PM

crap i just wrote it again.

#33 TheMaulClaw

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 11:22 PM

Yeah it's not luck....sure there is element of it in games. But if this is true for football then the same could be said for college football. Look at Saban....Alabama is not lucky they're good, they didn't luck out on all their recruits they developed them. I understand that there is more "parity" in the NFL, and maybe this article is solely focused on a talent evaluation perspective. But the problem that we've had in Carolina is development. Their seems to be a lot of players that don't develop well here then go somewhere else and all of a sudden.....developed. Sure, there are a lot of "x factors" in player development specifically from a player psychology perspective but to say that it's nothing but luck is a bit off. In the 6th and 7th rounds.....sure you cherry pick talent there and hope it works out, but you have to maximize development because that's what raises the odds. But there wasn't a whole lot of luck in Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, or Peyton Manning when he was drafted.

#34 iamhubby1

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 11:55 PM

We were successful under Polian, who was a football guy. We struggled under Hurndog, who was a FO guy. We have gotten back to our roots with Gettlemen, who is a football guy.

We blew this team up then signed our core to ridiculous money, which limited our options to upgrade the talent. Don't get me wrong, there is talent. Just not enough to compete with the top teams. Those are some big obstacles to overcome.

Rivera has admitted his mistakes, and that he still has some learning to do. But hell, most coaches can say that. But, I saw a really good Panther team the last half of the year. Better play and playcalling, better disipline with fewer silf inflicted wounds, and most importantly a team and coaching staff playing to win.

Throw in Cam and the future looks good to me. And GOOOOOO CATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Building a winning team is the easy part, winning it all is when luck comes in. We are building what I think is the right team. Gonna be fun watching the results.

#35 TheMaulClaw

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 12:22 AM

We were successful under Polian, who was a football guy. We struggled under Hurndog, who was a FO guy. We have gotten back to our roots with Gettlemen, who is a football guy.

We blew this team up then signed our core to ridiculous money, which limited our options to upgrade the talent. Don't get me wrong, there is talent. Just not enough to compete with the top teams. Those are some big obstacles to overcome.

Rivera has admitted his mistakes, and that he still has some learning to do. But hell, most coaches can say that. But, I saw a really good Panther team the last half of the year. Better play and playcalling, better disipline with fewer silf inflicted wounds, and most importantly a team and coaching staff playing to win.

Throw in Cam and the future looks good to me. And GOOOOOO CATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Building a winning team is the easy part, winning it all is when luck comes in. We are building what I think is the right team. Gonna be fun watching the results.


I can agree with this, but it's very important that our next OC capitalizes on the momentum we gained at the end of the year instead of blowing it all up and sending us back to the stone age.

#36 Panthro

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 12:23 AM

Do you all think Fox could've developed Brady?

#37 Kevin Greene

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 12:28 AM

Do you all think Fox could've developed Brady?


That's a good one.

How about, how much would Cam already have accomplished if he was drafted by Harbaugh in Frisco?

#38 rayzor

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 12:30 AM

That's a good one.

How about, how much would Cam already have accomplished if he was drafted by Harbaugh in Frisco?

cam goes to san fran last year and they're in the superbowl.

harbaugh comes here with cam and we're in the playoffs.

#39 Panthro

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 12:31 AM

Zoinks!

Or Harbaugh/Luck in Carolina

#40 rayzor

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 12:32 AM

Do you all think Fox could've developed Brady?

fox would have gone back to bledsoe.

#41 Kevin Greene

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 12:40 AM

fox would have gone back to bledsoe.



No man, Testeverde.

#42 GRWatcher

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 01:26 AM

Yeah it's not luck....sure there is element of it in games. But if this is true for football then the same could be said for college football. Look at Saban....Alabama is not lucky they're good, they didn't luck out on all their recruits they developed them. I understand that there is more "parity" in the NFL, and maybe this article is solely focused on a talent evaluation perspective. But the problem that we've had in Carolina is development. Their seems to be a lot of players that don't develop well here then go somewhere else and all of a sudden.....developed. Sure, there are a lot of "x factors" in player development specifically from a player psychology perspective but to say that it's nothing but luck is a bit off. In the 6th and 7th rounds.....sure you cherry pick talent there and hope it works out, but you have to maximize development because that's what raises the odds. But there wasn't a whole lot of luck in Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, or Peyton Manning when he was drafted.


I agree with this statement, it happens quite often especially with the defense. And while personalities always play a role between coaches & players, I do think there's a coaching philosophy that Rivera is changing now. Teaching. I remember some of Fox's first words were about hiring coaches that are good teachers. Similar words were spoken by Rivera. Teaching is a damn good thing but it should not be the focus of coaching. Because talking about teaching assumes that there is something you don't know. Teaching and development are two different things. Development puts the focus on building and improving not on learning. Because the players are paid to already know. And I believe that is why we are looking for so many coaches now. A change in philosophy.

I also believe that luck does play a large part in football. Heck, it does in any sport. Luck with the weather, the coin toss (lol), what refs you have for a game, the bus ride, the draft, etc. But good preparation will overcome the impact luck has on any game and that's where the better teams excel.

#43 Marguide

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 01:31 AM

Let me throw my 2 cents in...

Those that don't think coaching makes a difference need look no further than the 2012 New Orleans Saints. Sure, there is nothing more important than a true franchise QB, but coaching comes in at #2.

My complaints with Rivera are a little different than Rayzor's, and there are 3 principal problems that make me think he's in over his head:

1) Rivera coaches scared. From not letting Medlock try an end of half FG because Ron thought it would hurt his confidence, to not going for it on 4th and 1 even when you're down big and have nothing to lose (see last game vs NO in 2011), ron consistently tries to take the easy way out. He loves to talk about guys needing to make plays, but you have to give them the opportunity first. If you don't show confidence in your players, they are not likely to play with confidence.

2) Ron's lack of judgement this year in not reeling in Chud in week 4 or 5 when we still had a chance to make something of 2012 really bothered me. It was obvious to every thinking person that Chud's offense wasn't working, but it took Hurney getting fired before Ron did anything.

3) Ron has been very hesitant to pull underperforming players. We put up with almost a full year of Fua starting at the nose last year when he was being outperformed by the other guys on the roster. He finally goes out hurt and suddenly our defense looked legit. Fast forward to this year and only putting Luke in at MLB once Beason's injuries finally got the best of him. Everyone could see that Jon was playing poorly, but Ron did nothing until there was no choice. Same with Nakamura. Same with Norman.

He'll have my full support to start 2013, but in my opinion, we're going to be disappointed.

#44 rayzor

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 01:54 AM

Let me throw my 2 cents in...

Those that don't think coaching makes a difference need look no further than the 2012 New Orleans Saints. Sure, there is nothing more important than a true franchise QB, but coaching comes in at #2.

My complaints with Rivera are a little different than Rayzor's, and there are 3 principal problems that make me think he's in over his head:

1) Rivera coaches scared. From not letting Medlock try an end of half FG because Ron thought it would hurt his confidence, to not going for it on 4th and 1 even when you're down big and have nothing to lose (see last game vs NO in 2011), ron consistently tries to take the easy way out. He loves to talk about guys needing to make plays, but you have to give them the opportunity first. If you don't show confidence in your players, they are not likely to play with confidence.

2) Ron's lack of judgement this year in not reeling in Chud in week 4 or 5 when we still had a chance to make something of 2012 really bothered me. It was obvious to every thinking person that Chud's offense wasn't working, but it took Hurney getting fired before Ron did anything.

3) Ron has been very hesitant to pull underperforming players. We put up with almost a full year of Fua starting at the nose last year when he was being outperformed by the other guys on the roster. He finally goes out hurt and suddenly our defense looked legit. Fast forward to this year and only putting Luke in at MLB once Beason's injuries finally got the best of him. Everyone could see that Jon was playing poorly, but Ron did nothing until there was no choice. Same with Nakamura. Same with Norman.

He'll have my full support to start 2013, but in my opinion, we're going to be disappointed.

what i posted was my biggest beef, but i agree with your three as well, esp.the first two. coaching scared kind of plays into mine quite a bit. being too reluctant to change things that need to be changed is another big thing. you've only got such a small window of opportunity within a season and within a game that you can't just hang in there and hope that your process will work because it can cost you a game or a shot at the playoffs. if your plan isn't working, find something that will. if teams arent acting the way you thought they would, adapt. if players aren't catching on to what you want to do, adjust what you want to do to fit what they can do. if a player isn't working out and you've got someone else who can, make a change.

you have to be willing to deviate from your plan if you aren't in control of the outcome and you've got to be smart, swift, and decisive. your team is looking at you expecting you to have an answer when things aren't working out the way you hoped and you've got to look in control of the situation.

most of rivera's tenure here he hasn't delivered that.

#45 Marguide

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 02:09 AM

You know, I also was thinking about JR's priority for Rivera last year, the development of Cam Newton. For Rivera and Chud, they seemed too caught up in "the process" and development than in winning games. Being caught up in "the process" continued as we started 2012, and continued until Rivera got his ass put on the hot seat. I have seen an over emphasis on process in a business I was involved in a number of years ago, and it didn't work very well there either.

That's not to say developing a process and culture isn't important, but it has to play 2nd fiddle to results in all but the youngest organizations.

Hopefully, Ron has learned this lesson.


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