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How Do You Evaluate A Draft Pick?

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#31 Pejorative Miscreant

Pejorative Miscreant

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 11:03 AM

Hmmm that could be interesting. Maybe I could do GP+(GS*2)+ Assigned value for pro bowl appearances. Then you could literally see the "value" of each pick and then say "oh, a first round pick around the 14th pick should have this type of career". And you see picks that overperform for their slot and are thus good picks. I might look into that, even though, as you said, it would be quite tedious.

I agree you could definitely go in a lot of directions with this depending on how and what you wanted to evaluate a guy on. I think the pro bowl and other stats would be very meaningful in evaluating 1st/2nd round guys because a lot of those guys will get playing time and there needs to be some other variable to differentiate players.. I think you would probably want to adjust your logic based on what type of comparison you are doing so long as you can get to some level of quantitative analysis.

#32 kman72


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Posted 12 April 2013 - 03:17 AM

I look at size and length first. If they have the measurable (height, weight, hand size, arm length) that I am looking for then I look to see if they have the athleticism of the average player at that position for whatever level I may be looking at (NFL,College) If that matches I now want to see if that athleticism translates on the field. If he uses his speed/size correctly then I continue. If he fails is it because of scheme? Can he learn a playbook? Is he a system player, can he translate into other systems?

Does he enjoy playing football? is it fun or just a job? I want someone that wants to play and be the best. Does he have good work ethic? does he work out correctly? Is he a team player? When looking at a player see what teammates and former coaches say about him in workouts, on field, weight room, and daily life.

The key to me is you look at all the facts, and you know what the players measurable and what you believe the intangibles are with someone but in the end its all about your gut feeling. You have to remember when you see for example this 5'8" receiver that everyone wants to compare to (Steve Smith) that he was an exception not the norm. Dont take huge risk on people against the norm and the averages of finding players will come out in your favor.