I think your post is very realistic. Looking at things with my eyes, and not my heart, you have to be impressed with the changes that the Saints did this offseason. The signing of Byrd will suffocate the day lights out of most passing teams. The Falcons have no chance against the Saints. Matty will get frustrated by their pass rush and pass coverage. In my opinion their safeties will rival Seattle this year.
Yes, I see Cards and Rams better than Bucs and Falcons. That game versus Arizona was so frustrating.
Honestly, #1 and #2 seed will be hard. We are in a balanced division, NO may be better than us, Falcons won't be the team they were last year and Bucs has improved a lot. That's at least 4 tough games only in our division, so even winning the division you may have a low record.
But I believe in our D, and offense last year wasn't good, so despite OL, brand new receivers and Shula we can improve.
Our success this year will have to come from a solid run game and our stout defense. This will allow KB or one of the other young receivers to start to flash. Cotchery and Avant should be reliable possession receivers.
We still have a stout defense and of course Cam with an above average stable of running backs. Despite what the idiotic analyst say we should be able to compete for a playoff spot.