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fieryprophet

Member Since 15 Dec 2008
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#2431584 My friend's theory on why we've passed on so many receivers

Posted by fieryprophet on 16 October 2013 - 09:34 PM

The fact Keyshawn Johnson was once on this team invalidates that theory.




#2431582 Panthers In Pink Contest

Posted by fieryprophet on 16 October 2013 - 09:33 PM

I PIEd you for that last line.




#2431560 RG3 is fragile and sucks

Posted by fieryprophet on 16 October 2013 - 09:17 PM

Has nothing to do with what I hear on television.  It was what I witnessed with my own eyes.  My only comment was that I would not want that type of behavior from my leader of the face of my franchise.  If you're alright with it that's all that matters.

 

. . .look dumbass, we've been over that particular interview as a fanbase over 50,000,000 times, we know exactly what was said and the context it was said in and the reporter who wrote the piece (Peter King) and the media blowback and the blowback to the blowback and. . .

 

If there's one thing we know, it's that you're not remembering it right. So please find some other thing to nitpick.




#2431539 Who is our emergency QB?

Posted by fieryprophet on 16 October 2013 - 08:56 PM

Isn't it obvious? Nate.




#2431485 Riverboat Rivera - ESPN article (by David Newton)

Posted by fieryprophet on 16 October 2013 - 07:44 PM

Do those studies weight for time and score, human psychology, and momentum?

The game of football is more than sheer analytics.

I don't have a strong feeling one way or the other on gambling on fourth down. But I do like for a coach to have a philosophy and stick with it.

Because at the end of the day no matter what you choose will lose some games from being ultra aggressive and you will lose some games being too conservative. Just have a core belief and stick with it and the results will eventually even out.

Since the Panthers have been unlucky as of late we feel we need to be more aggressive, but that isn't always the right call.

 

They don't, and you're right. It's a high-variance sport with a large risk of catastrophe on every play, so simply playing the odds, no matter how favorable or unfavorable, is going to bite you in the ass just as often as save your hide.




#2431483 Riverboat Rivera - ESPN article (by David Newton)

Posted by fieryprophet on 16 October 2013 - 07:41 PM

The sample sizes are plenty large enough to infer statistical significance, there are numerous studies, and the odds of getting a yard on 4th and short are basically the same as the odds of getting a yard on third and short, which is quite common and is obviously game planned against. There is no real controversy here among people who have studied this. I know of no credible study that has come to the conclusion that's it's a good idea to punt on 4th and short on the opponents side of the field regardless of the score and time. There are dozens of good studies that show why coaches should go for it.

 

By numerous, you mean one modern NFL-specific one (Brian Burke's EPA study), and by odds, you mean none, as 3rd and one is simply not the same as 4th and one. Look at the defensive coverages used by NFL teams on a 3rd and one vs. a 4th and one: on third down they're just as likely to play 2 deep safeties as to bring one in the box, while on 4th downs they'll often utilize goal-line style packages with a single high safety. The Vikings put nine in the box on our first 4th down attempt.

 

Again, I'm not saying that the right idea isn't to go for it on 4th down, but the implication of Burke's study had more to do with the expectation of points scored vs. actual points scored, and required him to attempt to normalize that estimate across multiple eras of football, and with zero insight related to the quality of the teams or schemes involved. Let's say you're a team wanting to run for it on 4th and one vs. the '85 Chicago Bears or the 2012 New Orleans Saints. Are the probabilities of success the same against both teams? Hell no. Do the probabilities tell you otherwise? Nope. These theories that dictate that going for it on 4th down is the only right choice are based in a fantasy world where NFL teams don't dedicate hundreds of manhours each week trying to negate as many advantages for the other team as possible.

 

So, while I like that Rivera is willing to be more intutive in his 4th down decision-making, I'm not going to act like that is something we should be doing every single time the opportunity presents itself, as it will negate one of the advantages of the 4th down call in the first place: the element of surprise (which is again not accounted for in any way by those studies, which is a massive blind spot in their conclusions.)




#2431271 Our GREAT defensive AND Offensive drive stats

Posted by fieryprophet on 16 October 2013 - 03:32 PM

Just finished compiling the drive stats from the gamebooks during lunch...since Teeray started this thread already, I'll just add in some observations. Continuing from post last week.

 

Rankings thru 6 weeks all teams: Drives starting from your own 20rd or worse.

% Scoring

  1. Denver - 51% (19 scoring drives out of 37 drives total)
  2. Carolina - 43% (10 scoring out of 23 drives)
  3. Atlanta - 41% (13 scoring out of 31 drives)
  4. GreenBay - 41%
  5. SanDiego - 39%

League Worst: Tampa Bay @ 11% (interesting note: Tampa has not scored a TD on a drive 80+ yards all season. Only team that hasn't.)

StLouis: is 18th @ 25%.

League Average is 28%.

 

Carolina Week to Week ranking (all scoring, 80+yds):

Wk1 - 21st @17%

Wk2 - 6th @40%

Wk3 - 2nd @46%

Wk4 - 2nd @46% (bye week, Denver held onto #1, no one climbed past the Panthers)

Wk5 - 6th @38%

Wk6 - 2nd @43%

 

And before people start yelling FieldGoals instead of TDs,....Carolina (30%) is still 2nd to Denver (43%)if you only look @TD drives of 80+ yds. So right now it's taking Peyton's record setting performance to hold onto that #1 spot.

 

I have total drive data ready also, but the reason I look at 80yd+ drives is my opinion (not yet supported by any data) is that I can try to evaluate if this offense and Schula are actually any good. Requires that your offense HAS to move the ball to score. Some teams operate well on short drives caused by their defense or special teams making plays. But isolated, they are very pedestrian. I.e. SanFran abused Greenbay's poor zone scheme in week 1 (ranked #1 @80%),  but have since fallen to 16th (26%).

 

As for the Panthers, they are a true enigma...just like last week, they are still only 1 of 2 teams (Bengals) that scoring drive % gets worse as I included all drives. Average is an increase is 7%, Panthers at -6% (32nd in the league). Not sure if this is a Schula playcalling issue, Cam rhythm, or just some type of redzone issue. Still needs drilldown.

 

Will provide defensive version later.

 

Correlation not causation data point: Teams who have a better # of drives (than their opponent) starting better than your the 20yd line won 73% of the time. There are quite a few teams who can't score consistently if they have to drive 80yds. Undefeated Kansas City only scores 21% of the time, 26th in the league. On a "soft" schedule. On the flip side, the KC defense is only allowing only scoring drives on 12% of drives.
 

 

Great info. But this team just doesn't make any damn sense, we're like the Mask reincarnated as a football team.




#2431096 Our GREAT defensive AND Offensive drive stats

Posted by fieryprophet on 16 October 2013 - 01:28 PM

The most important stat for our offense is turnovers, period. Our fumble against Seattle screwed us over, the turnover on downs and red zone INT vs Arizona killed us, and Cam even threw an INT deep in Bufalo territory in that game. We keep working on protecting the football and everything will fall into place.




#2429701 Panthers Cheerleader Laura on NFL Network today...

Posted by fieryprophet on 15 October 2013 - 12:48 PM

She teaches science? Ask her what she thinks of Brian Billick's M = F * V equation. . .




#2428302 PFF Grading: Panthers 2nd Overall On Season

Posted by fieryprophet on 14 October 2013 - 04:58 PM

nothing to suggest this

 

Except a snap count that has been cut by a third since Week 3. Star is a monster but he is not well developed as a pass rusher and teams have been chopping his knees. Rather than risk him on the passing downs that teams have been forced to play thanks to our defense, the coaches have sat him out. He'll be fine.




#2428252 Greg Hardy. I Would Dominate Lebron James

Posted by fieryprophet on 14 October 2013 - 04:30 PM

I love you Kraken, but get back to dominating on the football field, mmk?




#2427382 Oh, The Panthers got another cheap win over a another bad team.

Posted by fieryprophet on 14 October 2013 - 01:35 AM

The Jags made the Broncos sweat out a win. This is not the pansy leagues, when you win you damn well earn it.




#2426070 Game ball, who gets it?! Donald Lafell version.

Posted by fieryprophet on 13 October 2013 - 03:52 PM

Davis was terrific.


#2426002 Anyone else bet on the Vikings to win?

Posted by fieryprophet on 13 October 2013 - 03:34 PM

I'll interject to say this: don't bet on the NFL. It's the least predictable of the pro sports. You will lose.


#2425959 post game tweets

Posted by fieryprophet on 13 October 2013 - 03:25 PM

Jonathan Jones ‏@jjones9 7m
Rivera on early fourth downs: it's what we're going to do now


LOL, wow. Better late than never?




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