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KB_fan last won the day on September 29

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About KB_fan

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    (KB are my initials...no love for KB#13)

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  1. https://www.panthers.com/news/stats-weekly-panthers-at-lions
  2. KB_fan

    Who to root for Week 9

    I'm a bit torn on this. Obviously what St Bugs says is true, but in case we are in a jumble for NFC wildcard, it would be better for Washington to win their division since we have a head to head win over Eagles. If Eagles win division and we are up against Skins for a WC spot, it's trouble. What do you all think?
  3. Didn't 3 other teams make it to 6-0 or 7-0 in 2015? Pat's, Denver, Bengals... Cam didn't start getting serious MVP talk until we started stomping on teams. (Washington, home vs Atlanta, etc) That said, I agree with others who say they don't care about MVP as much as wins and a SB trophy
  4. KB_fan

    Article on Cam in WashPo

    Think they mean 119 games. Cam has missed 3 games in 7+ seasons
  5. Yup. I knew he really had beaten all 32. Kudos to him.
  6. I'll see what I can compile on this over the weekend.
  7. KB_fan

    Nfl turning point segment

    I love Eugene. Mixon is sometimes pretty entertaining once you accept his bizarre side (actually, I haven't heard him talk about Ron's chest recently. I wonder if he was asked to tone that down). Overall they've grown on me. But yeah. Mick is not your go-to guy for someone who expresses a lot of excitement. But Eugene usually makes up for that!
  8. Totally. All 4 teams Cam's never beaten are AFC teams we rarely play.
  9. Someone on Reddit posted that there are only 4 teams Cam has not yet beaten in his career (excluding the Panthers, of course) I updated / corrected the table in the Reddit post, (including post season games) Here it is: If we can beat Baltimore & Pittsburgh this season, only Denver & Kansas City remain...
  10. You're welcome. Those post-Riverboat stats are now a little bit less gaudy with our 2-6 record in close games in 2016 and our 3-2 start in close games this year. (But on the positive side, 8-2 in 2017). I'll have the updated table / graphs later tonight or tomorrow, I hope.
  11. Will Bryan (aka Panthers stats guy) has an interesting article today about Panthers history in close games, with the key point being, Panthers have the best record in the league in close games since 2013. https://www.panthers.com/news/panthers-are-among-the-league-s-best-in-close-games Here's what Will tweeted about this: That reminded me of some research I did on this topic following the 2015 season. Back in the day, Jeremy allowed users to create their own blogs here, and I posted a detailed article on Panthers history in close wins. (A shorter version of it was published as a lead article here: http://www.carolinahuddle.com/2016/07/15/carolina-panthers-close-games/ ) The full version of my article / blog entry is no longer available here, but I thought it might be interesting to re-visit some of what I posted 2+ years later. I'm going to try and re-post my full article here from the version saved on my computer. *** “Riverboat Ron”- the legend grows. The Panthers Amazing Turnaround in Winning Close Games (July 2016) The 2015 Season for the Panthers produced a lot of franchise bests. One of the less discussed or less noticed stats was the Panthers success in winning close games. It turns out that 2015 was a record year for the Panthers in that category as well. In 2015, the Panthers had a franchise best +6 differential in close games. In the Regular Season they played 8 games decided by less than 10 points, and won 7 of them. (7 wins / 1 loss = +6 differential). Thanks to Sporting Charts, here’s a graph of the “small-win-loss differential” over the course of Panthers history 1995 - 2015: Data from Sporting Charts Sporting Charts divides NFL wins & losses into 4 categories: Big Win - a win in which the team won by 10 or more points. Small Win - a win in which the team won by between 1 and 9 points. Big Loss - a loss in which the team lost by 10 or more points. Small Loss - a loss in which the team lost by between 1 and 9 points. Here’s what Sporting Charts has to say about Big Win vs. Small Win differentials: Of course lots of big wins makes for a great season, no denying it. But I don’t think one should overlook the importance of small wins – i.e. pulling out a win in a close game. I’m not so sure I agree with Sporting Charts’ suggestion that a strong small win differential is typically due to a team “getting lucky.” My sense is that there’s very often a less tangible, but nonetheless CRITICAL, “will to win factor” in such games. (Think again of Cam’s nodding his head on the sidelines as if to say “I got this” in the final minute of the Giants game after the Panthers had given up a large lead and the Giants had tied the score.) Yes, the 2015 Panthers had quite a few “Cardiac Cats” moments. They gave up some leads they shouldn’t have. In some cases one clutch play saved the game or led to the win. · J-No’s end zone interception against the Saints; · Thomas Davis’ interception of Rodgers as the Packers were threatening in the final minutes. · Luke’s interception against the Colts in OT which set up the Panthers’ game winning field goal. · TD’s “hands team” catch of the onsides kick against Seattle in the Playoffs that preserved the win after the Panthers had given up 24 unanswered points. But was that “luck?” I contend these “clutch” plays happened too regularly throughout the Panthers season in 2015 for them to be mere luck. The Panthers defense consistently forced turnovers and the offense capitalized on them. Taken together they resulted in 17 wins: 9 “big” wins, 8 “small” wins – but those 8 “small” wins versus · Houston, · New Orleans (twice), · Seattle (twice including divisional playoff win), · Indy, · Green Bay, · Giants were HUGE for the Panthers, and the key to the Panthers extraordinary season. I think Carolina’s experience with the small win differential also points to the critical role coaching plays during close games, because the evolution of Ron Rivera as a coach has been striking to witness. Most Panthers fans know this story well. In Ron Rivera’s first two seasons (2011 and 2012) and into the beginning of 2013, the Panthers struggled mightily to win close games. The nadir was reached against Buffalo in week 2 of 2013 after Buffalo squeaked out a 1 point win on a field goal in the final seconds. It was a heart-breaking loss for the Panthers, and the speculation began that Ron Rivera would be fired. On Sept 15, 2013, Sports headlines screamed: “Carolina is 2-14 in games decided by 7 points or less under head coach Rivera” By his own account, that loss to Buffalo prompted deep soul-searching and re-evaluation of his coaching decisions, particularly his attitude towards calculated risks. Rivera began coaching more aggressively, playing more to win, rather than playing “not to lose,” and the persona Panthers fans now know and love, “Riverboat Ron” was born. The results have been nothing short of amazing. Since the birth of “Riverboat Ron” The Panthers record is 16-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less. That kind of dramatic turnaround and consistent winning in clutch situations seems like a lot more than luck. Let’s take a closer look. Here are all the Panthers games decided by a touchdown or less since Ron Rivera became head coach in 2011: Including the Post-Season, from 2011 – 2015 the Panthers have played a total of 86 games. Of those, 35 games (40.7%) were decided by one touchdown or less (7 points or less). Here’s how it breaks down Pre-Riverboat Ron and Post-Riverboat Ron: 2-14 “Pre-Riverboat” (.125 win percentage) 16-3 “Post-Riverboat” (.842 win percentage) Those results aren’t “luck.” That kind of turn-around is due to attitude. A will and a drive to win, grit, clutch play, and yes, skill too. A great coach. A great team. A team making their own luck. Long may this riverboat keep on rollin’. *** P.S. for the true stat geeks, here’s a bit more evidence that success in winning close games is strongly correlated with overall success. Thanks to Sporting Charts, I was able to import data for all teams’ small wins and losses for 2009 – 2015 into Excel. (That represents 224 seasons of NFL football, i.e. 32 teams X 7 years). I looked closely at the top 50 teams over that 7 year period in terms of wins and losses in close games. All 50 of these teams had close game win % of .667 or better. Only 8 of these teams won fewer than 10 total games in that particular season. The teams that won close games had winning seasons. Grouping the data by average close win % and showing the average number of wins and winning % for each tier: While the summary table above does not show the full data for number of close games played, one thing I find particularly interesting is that there is not a huge difference in the number of close games played between winning and losing teams. The teams with the best close win % played 7 close games per season on average, 1 fewer close game per season than the teams with a worse close win %. Good teams don’t merely rely on big wins when they dominate their opponents, but they find a way to win close games. They make their own luck, just as Riverboat Ron and the Panthers have done since week 3 of 2013. The 2003 Panthers – aka the Cardiac Cats – deserve a special mention in talking about close wins. They played 13 close games and won 9 of them. NFL success is not always about blow out wins. Playing lots of close games, but winning almost all of them is also a recipe for success -- a rare one, a heart-stressing one. But it can be done. It just takes guts. The 2001 Panthers deserve a place in the close game hall of shame. They played 9 games decided by fewer than 10 points, and lost them all. Here’s a look at Panthers History in terms of close games played and close games won: *** Forgive me for the indulgence of re-posting my old article here. But I want to update some of this research in the coming days, so it's helpful to have this old analysis available online....
  12. Great article. This jibes with some stats I was looking at earlier. Our run explosiveness at this point in the season this year (#2 in NFL according to Sharp Football) is hugely improved from this time last year. Look for more from me on this tomorrow. But our run game is our secret sauce for sure.
  13. Thanks so much for posting this. I saw all of Baldy's post-game tweets yesterday, but hadn't seen this.
  14. KB_fan

    Recent Baldy Breakdowns

    And here's Baldy on the field pre-game today: WOW.... VERY WINDY today.