Jump to content
Carolina Huddle


  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

655 Good

About Manther

  • Rank
    Apparently anyone can label themselves a MODERATOR

Recent Profile Visitors

1,605 profile views
  1. that is a weird looking plate of spaghetti.
  2. You referring to the ones built and filled by Obama and Biden?
  3. State polls have always been poor: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/ "That’s not to say there aren’t reasons for concern. National polls were pretty good in the 2016 presidential election, but state-level polling was fairly poor (although still within the “normal” range of accuracy). But even the state polling errors were well within the normal range. Their 5.2-point average error isn’t far from the 4.8-point error that state polls have had on average since 1972. It wasn’t a year like 1980, when both state polls and national polls were off by almost 9 points, incorrectly showing a near dead heat between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan (Reagan won the Electoral College 489-49)." -Nate Silver
  4. Dude, thats one poll. You said average. Did you not mean average?
  5. Yeah, you're just a pleasant person to be around. I feel sorry for the people in your life. Ok so lets take this PA poll http://www.gravispolls.com/2016/11/multi-state-polls.html?m=1 This poll was done AFTER Comey's announcement of reopening the email investigation but BEFORE he declare there was nothing there. Here they have Hillary winning by 6 with a margin of error of 2.5% She lost by nearly one point. The quote from 538 above stating that her lead is small in the polls only applies to the national polls, and some state polls, but NOT PA, MI or WI. 6 points is not considered a small lead and and error of that size is outside the normal acceptable MOE. When 538 averages them, they ignore MOE. I've never seen an average of MOE and I'm beginning to think you haven't either, mostly because you just swear at people to divert from the fact you can't find a link with an AVERAGE of MOE.
  6. No, you're mean because when someone asked you where you got an average of polling errors, you snarkily send them to the definition of margin of error at dummies.com. Do you look up a lot of stuff there? You never did explain where you found an average of polling errors.
  7. Yes. But averaging the margin error across multiple polls is not. You said average. I tell you people are just mean in here.
  8. I've never seen a margin of error calculated for an average of polls. Each poll has its own margin of error, and they vary from poll to poll. Typically no one does any math on those margin of error because I'm not sure it would make any sense. Where did you find a margin of error for an average polls in PA?
  9. Nationally the polls were barely off. State by state is another matter. In Michigan PPP had Clinton up by 6, the Detroit Free Press had her up by 5, just before the election. In PA, Morning Call/Muhlenberg College had Clinton up by 6. In WI 3 different polls had Clinton up by 6. Based on the state by state polling and national polling, 538 gave Hillary a 71% chance to win with greater than 75% chance she'd win those three states. Those polls were way off...way outside the margin of error. In 2012, Gallup predicted Romney would win national by 1 pt on the eve of the election. Gallup doesn't do election polls anymore so they can't ever be proven wrong.
  10. So Swalwell is out https://news.yahoo.com/reports-eric-swalwell-become-first-172740993.html
  • Create New...