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Jeremy Igo

2016 Panthers Schedule - Thoughts and Musings

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1 hour ago, thefuzz said:

Nobody starting to think that Carson may be wearing down?

maybe they were potent as a whole. he'd have to really crash hard for them to not still be formidable 

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3 hours ago, PhillyB said:

maybe they were potent as a whole. he'd have to really crash hard for them to not still be formidable 

I hope it doesn't happen this way, but I saw a little Jake meltdown from him in the NFCC game...he is 36 and has had some injury history.

 

We shall see.

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20 hours ago, Cookie Lyon said:

The Panthers play the Falcons on Christmas Eve which will be Chosen's birthday!

I think that's pretty cool.

:)

Yeah but a Saturday game following a Mon. night game ain't cool. At least it's at home.

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i think this team is gonna go 16-0. doesn't matter who it is, i think we are pissed are we are gonna break some teams into pieces this year. had the same feeling before the seattle playoff game. if you thought we were villains last year we are gonna be one of the most hated teams ever by the end of next season. why? because we're not just gonna beat teams anymore we're gonna josh norman-OBJ them. we're gonna be punking teams and brawling teams and just ending them. scorched earth to the super bowl take no prisoners all revenge will be taken.

  • Pie 2

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you appear to be seriously understimating our divisional rivals on the road. i mean... this year we lost to atlanta. and were losing to new orleans with 45 seconds left in the game.

the toughest stretch of the season is by far the first 6 weeks with three division games (two on the road against the better teams), denver, and minnesota.

think 10-6 is the floor but i'm probably predicting 12-4.

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22 minutes ago, Zithers said:

you appear to be seriously understimating our divisional rivals on the road. i mean... this year we lost to atlanta. and were losing to new orleans with 45 seconds left in the game.

the toughest stretch of the season is by far the first 6 weeks with three division games (two on the road against the better teams), denver, and minnesota.

think 10-6 is the floor but i'm probably predicting 12-4.

Meh.  Any Given Sunday maybe, but their ineptitude was not only clear in finishing 7 or more games back last year, but the sheer desperation shown and highlighted in their off seasons and discussed in the free agent thread.  On paper with KB returning, Cam only growing closer to his prime, Brees now 37, and the Falcons highest paid defensive player now backup here, I'd say we're in good shape.

PS-we have a winning record all time in New Orleans and I'm GLAD we get them both earlier on the road this year-it reduces the chances of attrition for the superior football team, i.e. Stew missing the game in ATL last year.  If he plays, we win.

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6 minutes ago, ctrcat said:

Meh.  Any Given Sunday maybe, but their ineptitude was not only clear in finishing 7 or more games back last year, but the sheer desperation shown and highlighted in their off seasons and discussed in the free agent thread.  On paper with KB returning, Cam only growing closer to his prime, Brees now 37, and the Falcons highest paid defensive player now backup here, I'd say we're in good shape.

PS-we have a winning record all time in New Orleans and I'm GLAD we get them both earlier on the road this year-it reduces the chances of attrition for the superior football team, i.e. Stew missing the game in ATL last year.  If he plays, we win.


i... don't think i ever said we're not in good shape or that we are worse than them. i said to not underestimate rivals on the road. and i don't know what basis you have to say we'd win if stew were playing in ATL. furthermore, players are just as likely to get hurt early in the season as they are later in the year. i mean drew brees got hurt in the first month which allowed us to face luke mccown, who almost beat us... in charlotte... imagine what would have happened if they had brees. who, btw, people continuously say is "done" and yet he still plays well every year.

basically you are reinforcing my original point of people underestimating the saints and falcons on the road.

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9 hours ago, Zithers said:

you appear to be seriously understimating our divisional rivals on the road. i mean... this year we lost to atlanta. and were losing to new orleans with 45 seconds left in the game.

the toughest stretch of the season is by far the first 6 weeks with three division games (two on the road against the better teams), denver, and minnesota.

think 10-6 is the floor but i'm probably predicting 12-4.

I agree with this.  I think that having 3 division games back to back to back that early in the season is tough.  I could see a L at the Superdome.  We were pretty fortunate to beat the Saints twice last year.  Yes I know we're the better team by far, but divisional games are a different creature.

I also don't like the Christmas Eve game against Atlanta on Saturday after MNF.  Christmas week, bad weather & bowl games messed up our practice routines prior to our loss at Atlanta last year and I fear this year could be something similar.  (...though presumably Cam will not be dealing with a brand new baby this year!)

Not saying I really think we lose both of these games, just that they're danger spots I see.

Right now I have our floor as about 12-4, but could easily see 14-2 or hopefully better.  I would love to see us make another run at undefeated, but while we're bringing back almost the whole team, I'm just not sure it's realistic to expect another season like last year.  We all know that games can be swung on one or two plays... (witness the Super Bowl, if that call hadn't gone against Cotch early in the game... it could have been a very different game.)  Last year we had so many KEY plays go our way (J-No end zone interception against NO; the blown coverage by Seattle that led to the stunning TD to win over Seattle; TD's onsides kick catch against Seattle in the playoffs, TD's interception of Rodgers.  Luke's interception in overtime against the Colts...)  These were plays that saved games we could have quite easily lost.  Miss one or two of those plays and we could have been 14-2 or 13-3.  

But hey, great teams make great plays when it matters.  I expect we'll do the same in 2016 and we'll win a lot of exciting games.  We play some good teams (6 playoff teams), we'll be getting a lot of primetime airtime...   Should be a GREAT season!

 

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Just had a somewhat random schedule-related thought / question pop into my mind.

Has CLT ever hosted a Christmas Eve game?  If so, what's the attendance like? 

I would think that with holiday travel, family gatherings, church commitments, etc., Christmas Eve could be low attendance?  Probably helps attendance that it's against a hated division rival - Atlanta.  But if we're not playing for anything much at this point (i.e. if we have the division / playoff spot / seed already locked up) I worry that it could be a less-than-capacity crowd.

Any reason to be concerned?

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I thought it would be interesting to compare strength of schedule and Panthers historical win % against our opponents for both the 2015 and 2016 seasons:

Here's 2015:

2015 S-o-S.png

Here's 2016:

2016 S-o-S.png

Based on our opponents' prior season records, our overall strength of schedule is harder in 2016 than 2015:  .512 vs .434

In 2015 we played 4 playoff teams.  In 2016 we play 6.

Here's more comparisons:

2015-2016 SOS comp.png

Perhaps the greatest difference is that we play significantly fewer teams coming off really terrible seasons.  In 2015 we played 5 teams with 4 wins or fewer the prior season (incl Tampa twice).  In 2016 we play only 1 such team (San Diego).

Yet, even though our strength of schedule is harder, we do go into the 2016 season with a higher historical win % and a higher recent win % (since 2011) against these teams.

Looking at the breakdown, I'm a bit more concerned with the Vikings and KC games than I was.  I wasn't aware of our historical and recent losing records against both teams.  Also, I hadn't realized (or more likely I'd just forgotten / blocked it out of my mind) that we've never beaten the Broncos under Cam & Ron...  So... there are some challenges ahead.

The toughest games look to be

  • At Denver
  • Vikings
  • Kansas City
  • At New Orleans (short week, coming at end of intense stretch)
  • At Seattle
  • Atlanta (based on schedule as well as our toughest division rivalry)

Arizona is actually the opponent we face who had the best regular season record last year, but I'm less concerned about that game since we've beaten AZ convincingly twice in the 2014 and 2015 playoffs, and since we'll be coming off our bye.

It encourages me greatly to look back at 2015's strength of schedule and historical record table because it reminds me of the challenge we faced in winning against some teams who had owned us for awhile:  Seattle, Dallas, Green Bay ... heck we'd even struggled previously against Tennessee.  We beat them all.

Let's look forward to getting our revenge against Denver and Atlanta, and wins against Minn, KC, continuing our recent dominance of TB and New Orleans, and continuing our newfound success against Seattle....

We got this Panthers fans!

  • Pie 1

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2 hours ago, KB_fan said:

I thought it would be interesting to compare strength of schedule and Panthers historical win % against our opponents for both the 2015 and 2016 seasons:

Here's 2015:

2015 S-o-S.png

Here's 2016:

2016 S-o-S.png

Based on our opponents' prior season records, our overall strength of schedule is harder in 2016 than 2015:  .512 vs .434

In 2015 we played 4 playoff teams.  In 2016 we play 6.

Here's more comparisons:

2015-2016 SOS comp.png

Perhaps the greatest difference is that we play significantly fewer teams coming off really terrible seasons.  In 2015 we played 5 teams with 4 wins or fewer the prior season (incl Tampa twice).  In 2016 we play only 1 such team (San Diego).

Yet, even though our strength of schedule is harder, we do go into the 2016 season with a higher historical win % and a higher recent win % (since 2011) against these teams.

Looking at the breakdown, I'm a bit more concerned with the Vikings and KC games than I was.  I wasn't aware of our historical and recent losing records against both teams.  Also, I hadn't realized (or more likely I'd just forgotten / blocked it out of my mind) that we've never beaten the Broncos under Cam & Ron...  So... there are some challenges ahead.

The toughest games look to be

  • At Denver
  • Vikings
  • Kansas City
  • At New Orleans (short week, coming at end of intense stretch)
  • At Seattle
  • Atlanta (based on schedule as well as our toughest division rivalry)

Arizona is actually the opponent we face who had the best regular season record last year, but I'm less concerned about that game since we've beaten AZ convincingly twice in the 2014 and 2015 playoffs, and since we'll be coming off our bye.

It encourages me greatly to look back at 2015's strength of schedule and historical record table because it reminds me of the challenge we faced in winning against some teams who had owned us for awhile:  Seattle, Dallas, Green Bay ... heck we'd even struggled previously against Tennessee.  We beat them all.

Let's look forward to getting our revenge against Denver and Atlanta, and wins against Minn, KC, continuing our recent dominance of TB and New Orleans, and continuing our newfound success against Seattle....

We got this Panthers fans!

 

Yes ma'am we sure do. And I for one am loving it. Course after almost 100 years of marriage, it really feels good to love something again.

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eesh that schedule looks rough- and you better bet teams are going to bring their A game against next year 

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On 4/16/2016 at 7:56 PM, Ship said:

i think this team is gonna go 16-0. doesn't matter who it is, i think we are pissed are we are gonna break some teams into pieces this year. had the same feeling before the seattle playoff game. if you thought we were villains last year we are gonna be one of the most hated teams ever by the end of next season. why? because we're not just gonna beat teams anymore we're gonna josh norman-OBJ them. we're gonna be punking teams and brawling teams and just ending them. scorched earth to the super bowl take no prisoners all revenge will be taken.

This. We won't have any holes by the end of the draft and KBs return will help us overmatch just about any team in the league.

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12 hours ago, SOJA said:

eesh that schedule looks rough- and you better bet teams are going to bring their A game against next year 

I take strength of schedule with a grain of salt. Seems like every year a team gets the "toughest" schedule only to find out their opponents poo the bed or are decimated by slumps and injury.

  • Pie 1

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12 minutes ago, OneBadCat said:

I take strength of schedule with a grain of salt. Seems like every year a team gets the "toughest" schedule only to find out their opponents poo the bed or are decimated by slumps and injury.

Exactly why our schedule is "easier" than last year.  You can predict, with a reasonable degree of certainty, how chitty/bad/average/good/elite, a QB will be.  And our opponent QBs this year are worse than last, pure and simple.

  • Pie 1

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