Jump to content

CPantherKing

HUDDLER
  • Posts

    7,361
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by CPantherKing

  1. Yes, they do. Every year it is about how these college QBs are going to be the one to dominate the NFL like Tom Brady, Brock Purdy, and Jalen Hurts. All these 1st round QBs that are the best of the best. I have had QBs make my board, but not every year. The last 5 1st round QBs that made my board with my algo are Patrick Mahomes 2017, Andrew Luck 2012, Aaron Rodgers 2005, Eli Manning 2004, and Peyton Manning 1998. Averaging one 1st round QB every 5 years. The next QB I am expecting to make it on my board as a 1st round value is Arch Manning 2027. Looking for that Mahomes or Rodgers QB to sneak up on me this decade. I believe it is better to miss on a Roethlisberger and hit more often on 1st round QBs every 5 years than it is to hit on a Roethlisberger with the chance of wasting the years of a franchise on a Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, Bortles, Russell, Goff, Wentz, or Bradford every 2 to 3 years. I know 85% of all QBs who are invested in for 2 years as a franchise QB make it to the playoffs. Round does not matter (6th round to undrafted QBs do edge out 1st rounders). You can load up on undrafted QBs and get to the playoffs. I also know that 7.6% of 1st round QBs win for the coach/team that gives them their first franchise QB opportunity. 6th round to undrafted QBs win a SB for the coach/team that gives them their 1st opportunity at 5.8%. So, is a 1.8% increased chance worth the draft capital of a 1st round draft pick? The cost of the first pick in the 6th round is 20 points. The cost of the last pick in the 1st round is 600 points. Defensive players have a better return on value with the 1st round pick for building a SB champion. How much is wasted with a 1st round pick that costs 1500 to 3000 points in draft capital for a 1.8% increase? As for Richardson and Levis, both are out of their league against the top 20 QBs in the NFL, and they will easily be replaced by other QBs that will get an opportunity from past drafts and future drafts. Levis will wow everyone with his accuracy and decision making. He is a great 7 on 7/combine QB. He is average in the clutch/situational football and toughness. His athletic ability in the pocket is poor. He sets and becomes a tree with very predictable pocket movement for edge rushers. If he starts to move out of the pocket he stops looking down field to pass and becomes a RB who will not pass. He rates poorly at moving the safeties. Then you factor in that he is a 3.1% TO QB (Darnold level). Levis will not be on my draft board.
  2. You keep believing that and continue to gaslight everyone. That is always a possibility. There is a big difference between a 54% passer and a 58% passer in football. Comp% for a college QB? I'd want to see them trending up. Posting 60% to 70% in at least 2 seasons with an upward trend is going to be a green light regardless of average. If that 58% average is potential and they transfer that to the NFL, it would put them in the 84th to 92nd percentile of NFL QB decision makers. Stafford, Brady, and Wilson are the last 3 SB champion QBs who have been in this range. I'd be looking for a coachable QB with improved decision making and the ability to make their receivers and the coaching staff better. They would have a pattern from low to high of 45 - 55 - 60 - 62 - 64 - 65. So, 58 is average. Trending up is potential. And I would expect that QB to level off around 63-65% in the NFL. If they are coming from a vertical system while trailing in a high % of games, they would get an even bigger bump in potential. If they are in a horizontal system with high percentage routes and playing with leads, they would be given a neutral to declining status. You want QBs with potential and little to no volatility coming out of college. Richardson is a highly volatile and limited passer that would be some where in the 56 to 58 range at the NFL level. I'd expect him to remain at the bottom of the NFL if he were to be a starter. I'd expect Richardson to fall in the 30th to 49th percentile on the NFL level. Dilfer, Elway and Rypien were the last 3 SB champion QBs in this range. You can win a SB with any NFL QB when it comes to decision making (Doug Williams, Joe Namath, Jim Plunkett, and Terry Bradshaw among the worst in the NFL - 8 SBs among them). This is just decision making. There are other factors that layer over decision making, one of the most important being the clutch factor, and RIchardson is below my cutoff for that too at 23.5% GWD. Give me a 58% COMP with 35% GWD QB from college in a 65%+ vertical passing game with at least one championship. I'll look into their leadership/personality and then possibly put them on my board. Anthony Richardson does not make the cut. There is more to it, but COMP layered with GWD will filter out many of the college QBs that will not win a championship at the NFL level - even with the best coaches in the NFL.
  3. Anthony Richardson can't pass. He's a fastball pitcher that will get picked off 4 to 5 times a game in the NFL. He has 0 touch and can't layer his passes and has little arm talent. His footwork in the pocket is raw. He is a wildcat QB that every NFL defense will challenge to win the game with his arm. Definitely not a QB Reich would want behind center. There is no stability to his game and he is not clutch with his situational football.
  4. There is no CONSENSUS PEDIGREE QB in the NFL draft. Trading up is always a bad move, but it would be a very bad move with this QB class. The best options for a championship QB appear to be in free agency this year.
  5. Jimmy Garoppolo is the 6th best active QB in playoff wins. Rodgers, Mahomes, Flacco, Wilson, Burrow, Garoppolo, Foles, Stafford, Allen, Ryan are the top 10 active QBs in playoff experience. This is what Reich means by stability. 2 of his preferred QBs are on on this list. Expect him to favor these QBs if they are available. Jimmy G would go to the top of Reich's list when he becomes available. Luck and Rivers were in the top 10 before they retired. Be ready for a QB room with the likes of Flacco, Garoppolo, and Foles.
  6. Stability and great foot work with a proven ability to be clutch is what Reich wants at the QB position. That is not Brissett or most, if not all, of the QB prospects in the draft this year. I'm expecting Nick Foles when released and Jacob Eason to be part of the QB plan. Reich's choice of OC, QB coach, and PGC will tell us more. Reich has not favored drafting a 1st round QB. He believed Eason to have the most arm talent in the 2020 draft with Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert, and Hurts in that same draft class. Reich wanted his #2 to be Eason with the Colts, and Eason signed a futures contract knowing Reich favors him.
  7. He is the one who hit Mahomes out of bounds for a 15 yard penalty. Set the Chiefs up for an easier FG. Otherwise the FG has to go 15 yards further. Big mistake when the Bengals defense is playing for OT.
  8. Lombardi said the game comes down to 3 plays and you don't want to be the player to cost your team on those plays so always be ready!
  9. We have a good #2 WR. I'd still take Muhammad as a #2 over DJ. Not sure where DJ would be in the depth chart for the 2003 team. Proehl's route running and hands may have put DJ at #4 at WR.
  10. One day the Panthers will have another #1 WR. Watching Chase makes me miss Smitty. Been soooo long
  11. Bengals get a gift. 49ers, Chiefs, and Refs giving out gifts today
  12. If that were the Eagles, they would have called it complete. Shanahan, take note. This is how you coach in the playoffs even if you may lose the challenge!
  13. And for anyone thinking this is was of the worst NFC Championship implosions, you need to go back and watch the Panthers steam roll in 2005 only to fall on their face in the NFC Championship game. You need good RBs to open up the passing game, average clutch QBs smart enough to keep the defense honest, and deep threats that open up space for the passing and running game. No one player can take over a game. You need all 3 pieces on offense. Defense always has the advantage against an offense who can't bring all 3 pieces.
  14. Not until every team loses a game because of it!
  15. Eagles players are out of the SB who came on the field
  16. Ejection for everyone throwing a punch and no SB
  17. Need to eject some of these Eagles players
  18. MVPs for the Eagles are... Shanahan for not calling a challenge or timeout on that 4th and 3 pass. Josh Johnson for blanking on how to play QB with his fumble and freeze when trying to recover his own fumble in the pocket. Officials for unloading flags on the 49ers defense and coming up with phantom calls on completed passes and running into the kicker. Brock Purdy's ulnar nerve for taking taking the game off.
  19. Shanahan poo'd the bed in this game Setting himself up to use the "We had no QB" excuse
×
×
  • Create New...