Mr. Scot

The Athletic's NFL Quarterback Betrayal Rankings (yes, that's really what they're calling this) The idea behind this chart is to measure which quarterbacks got the most help from their defensive and special teams units and which others had higher obstacles to overcome. Author Mike Sando explains it as follows: The index highlights differences in where these quarterbacks’ teams ranked on offense compared to defense/special teams, using TruMedia’s EPA model. The better a quarterback’s team was on offense and the worse his team was on defense/special teams, the more “betrayed” the quarterback was in the games he started. For example, Brees’ teams ranked second on offense and 51st on defense/special teams in his starts over the past decade, relative to where the other 53 quarterbacks’ teams ranked. Subtracting the defense/special teams ranking from the offense ranking produces a minus-49 differential, making Brees the “most betrayed” quarterback on the index. To summarize, being ranked highly means you did "the most with the least", whereas ranking on the low end means you got decent to good help from your team's other units...but still managed to look bad. Mind you, there's more to it than just that, and Sando tries to add more info to it in his analytical comments about each quarterback. I'll state up front that this kind of stat heavy ranking and analysis isn't my thing, but it looked like something others on here might find interesting and it does touch on some of our own recent quarterback performances. The overall rankings are summarized in this graphic: Sando's comments on current and recent Panther quarterbacks are quoted below: 16. Baker Mayfield OFF 30 | DST 42 | Betrayal Index: -12, W-L: 30-31 (.492), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 10-23 (.303, 24th best) Mayfield’s least probable starting victory: 37-34 at Cincinnati in 2020 Week 7, when the Browns prevailed despite finishing with minus-17.1 EPA on defense/special teams. Mayfield averaged 10.6 yards per attempt and tossed five touchdown passes with only one interception in that game. 23. Cam Newton OFF 21 | DST 24 | Betrayal Index: -3, W-L: 72-62-1 (.537), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 18-44-1 (.294, 28th best) The Newton-era Panthers peaked on defense/special teams with a No. 2 combined EPA ranking in 2015. They went to the Super Bowl that season. 28. Teddy Bridgewater OFF 24 | DST 23 | Betrayal Index: +1, W-L: 33-31 (.516), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 8-26 (.235, 36th best) Players on this list won 75 percent of their starts when their teams finished with positive combined EPA on defense/special teams. Bridgewater beat that average with a 25-5 record in those games (.833). 54. Sam Darnold OFF 54 | DST 8 | Betrayal Index: +46, W-L: 17-32 (.347), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 2-18 (.100, 52nd best) It’s a little surprising to see how well Darnold’s teams have played in the defense/special teams component, but the Jets and Panthers have had their moments on defense. Quarterbacks from around the NFC South, with two old foes ranked at or near the top: 1. Drew Brees OFF 2 | DST 51 | Betrayal Index: -49, W-L: 84-58 (.592), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 37-49 (.430, ninth best) The “Bountygate” investigation and punishment dismantled a defensive culture that, while effective on the field, became outdated overnight. Brees could have structured his contracts more favorably to help the Saints build around him, but he was under no obligation to do so. 3. Matt Ryan OFF 8 | DST 49 | Betrayal Index: -41, W-L: 81-86 (.485), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 37-75 (.330, 20th best) The Falcons never ranked higher than 24th in combined defensive and special-teams EPA in any of Ryan’s final nine seasons with Atlanta. The offense ranked in the top 10 five times during that stretch. 15. Jameis Winston OFF 28 | DST 41 | Betrayal Index: -13, W-L: 33-44 (.429), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 10-33 (.227, 40th best) Winston’s teams have matched Kyler Murray’s teams for offensive EPA per game. Winston has the worse won-lost record because his teams haven’t been as strong on defense/special teams. 30. Marcus Mariota OFF 34 | DST 32 | Betrayal Index: +2, W-L: 30-33 (.476), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 11-23 (.324, 22nd best) The average offensive output for Mariota in his starts matches the average for games with Tyrod Taylor in the lineup. 25. Tom Brady OFF 3 | DST 5 | Betrayal Index: -2, W-L: 138-44 (.758), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 42-34 (.553, second best) Brady’s top-five rankings on both offense and defense/special teams over the past decade separate him from Rodgers, Brees and the other great quarterbacks. The glittering record in betrayal games is also notable. His Super Bowl comeback victory against Atlanta qualifies as one of those victories. Others of general interest: 2. Justin Herbert OFF 9 | DST 53 | Betrayal Index: -44, W-L: 15-17 (.469), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 8-15 (.430, 17th best) The Chargers struggled on defense and/or special teams long before Herbert’s arrival, which is why you’ll be reading about Philip Rivers shortly. With a defensive-minded head coach and an offseason spending spree on defensive pieces, the 2022 outlook should be positive. A tough schedule of opposing quarterbacks will be challenging, however. 5. Aaron Rodgers OFF 5 | DST 43 | Betrayal Index: -38, W-L: 105-53-1 (.664), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 42-44-1 (.489, 5th best) The last time the Packers ranked among the top 10 in combined defensive and special-teams EPA, they won the Super Bowl. That was after the 2010 season, when they were third. The team has averaged a No. 20 ranking since 2012. 6. Patrick Mahomes OFF 1 | DST 37 | Betrayal Index: -36, W-L: 58-16 (.784), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 29-16 (.644, best) The Chiefs have ranked 18th or better on defense/special teams twice in four seasons with Mahomes as their starter. Those were the two seasons Kansas City reached the Super Bowl. Mahomes’ Kansas City offenses have averaged 9.3 EPA per start, easily the best figure associated with any of the 54 quarterbacks. That’s how Mahomes has gone 29-16 in games his team finished with negative combined EPA on defense and special teams, by far the best win rate among the 54 quarterbacks. The Chiefs are 29-0 when the they finish games with positive combined EPA on defense/special teams. No one else on this list is better than 38-3 (Luck). 8. Deshaun Watson OFF 12 | DST 45 | Betrayal Index: -33, W-L: 29-27 (.518), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 10-24 (.294, 26th best) The Texans were a mess around Watson in Houston, which is how they went only 29-27 with him in the lineup. 9. Andrew Luck OFF 13 | DST 39 | Betrayal Index: -26, W-L: 57-37 (.606), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 19-34 (.358, 15th best) The Colts’ lack of support for Luck went beyond the offensive line. The defense also lagged during some of his seasons, although the special-teams EPA was generally pretty good. Luck’s 38-3 record in games when the Colts had positive combined EPA on defense/special teams was the second-best mark behind the 29-0 record for Mahomes in those games. 10. Matthew Stafford OFF 19 | DST 44 | Betrayal Index: -25, W-L: 77-81-1 (.487), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 30-62-1 (.328, 21st best) Expanding beyond the 2012-21 time period to examine Stafford’s full career, minus his injury-shortened 2010 and 2019 seasons, we can say this about his won-lost record: Stafford is 49-32 (.605) in the five seasons when his teams’ combined defensive/special-teams ranking was best, compared to 33-63 (.344) in the other seasons. 13. Dak Prescott OFF 7 | DST 22 | Betrayal Index: -15, W-L: 54-35 (.607), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 22-24 (.478, sixth best) The Cowboys ranked third in combined defense/special-teams EPA last season, posting four of their five best single-game performances of the Prescott era. Similar production could be helpful this season if Dallas falls off on offense with a lesser receiving corps. 19. Peyton Manning OFF 4 | DST 10 | Betrayal Index: -6, W-L: 50-15 (.769), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 14-12 (.538, fourth best) It’s no shock that Manning owns the best win rate in the extreme betrayal games with a 5-4 mark, except for the fact that this timeframe excludes his physical prime years. Manning owns the most extreme victory for any of the 54 quarterbacks over the past decade, 51-48 against the Cowboys in 2013. That game saw Romo top 500 yards passing, only to have his late pass picked off by Danny Trevathan. Denver won that game despite finishing with minus-27.0 combined EPA on defense/special teams. 26. Jimmy Garoppolo OFF 10 | DST 12 | Betrayal Index: -2, W-L: 37-16 (.698), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 12-10 (.553, third best) The league views Garoppolo as a Tier 3 quarterback who wins largely because of superior offensive scheming paired with a strong defense. It’s interesting to see Garoppolo with a winning record in games his team finished with negative combined EPA on defense and special teams. Those victories include 48-46 against Brees’ Saints in a 2019 game that saw San Francisco win despite finishing minus-20.9 in EPA on defense/special teams. 27. Kyler Murray OFF 27 | DST 28 | Betrayal Index: -1, W-L: 22-24-1 (.479), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 6-20 (.231, 39th best) Murray actually won the start in which his Cardinals performed their worst from a combined EPA standpoint on defense and special teams. That victory: 34-33 against Atlanta in 2019 Week 7, when Murray passed for 340 yards and three touchdowns. 33. Russell Wilson OFF 15 | DST 7 | Betrayal Index: +8, W-L: 113-60-1 (.652), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 24-39 (.381, 14th best) Seattle finished 36 percent of Wilson’s starts with negative combined EPA on defense and special teams. Only Trubisky and Lamar Jackson have had it better by that measure over the past decade. 34. Lamar Jackson OFF 11 | DST 1 | Betrayal Index: +10, W-L: 38-15 (.717), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 7-10 (.412, 12th best) Jackson has gotten greater support from his defense and special teams than any quarterback on this list. He has also won some of the most difficult games. Jackson is 3-3 record in those extreme betrayal games when Baltimore finished with especially bad EPA on defense/special teams (minus-10 or worse). Peyton Manning (5-4) is the only quarterback on this list with a better record in those games over the past decade. Mahomes is 10-11 in those games, followed by Jackson, Herbert (3-4), Burrow (2-3), Brees (16-29), Brady (8-15) and Rodgers (13-26). 37. Carson Wentz OFF 25 | DST 11 | Betrayal Index: +14, W-L: 44-41-1 (.517), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 10-26 (.278, 30th best) Wentz’s Colts finished six games last season with positive EPA on offense. His new team, Washington, had five such games. 40. Josh Allen OFF 20 | DST 2 | Betrayal Index: +18, W-L: 42-24 (.636), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 11-14 (.440, eighth best) Allen has shown he can win a solid percentage of games with less support from his defense and/or special teams. He hasn’t had to do that frequently because Buffalo has generally been very strong in those phases. 42. Jared Goff OFF 32 | DST 13 | Betrayal Index: +19, W-L: 47-40-1 (.54), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 17-25 (.405, 13th best) Offensive EPA per start for teams with Goff in the lineup rose from minus-20.5 in 2016 to 3.3 in 2017 and 7.9 in 2019 before falling each season since then. Can he turn it around this season? 43. Daniel Jones OFF 50 | DST 29 | Betrayal Index: +21, W-L: 12-25 (.324), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 3-16 (.158, 46th best) Jones’ offenses have been about as productive as offenses with Brock Osweiler in the lineup. Will that change with new coaching? 46. Joe Burrow OFF 36 | DST 9 | Betrayal Index: +27, W-L: 15-14-1 (.517). W-L with negative team DST EPA: 5-7 (.417, 10th best) The Bengals jumped to 13th in offensive EPA last season after ranking 27th in Burrow’s injury-shortened rookie starts. The defense has been Cincy’s strength in his starts overall. 53. Mitchell Trubisky OFF 40 | DST 3 | Betrayal Index: +37, W-L: 29-23 (.558), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 4-13 (.235, 36th best) The Bears went 12-4 in 2018 with Trubisky ranking third in Total QBR, boosted by his own rushing production. Chicago ranked 13th in offensive EPA that season while leading the league in combined EPA on defense/special teams. Chicago ranked among the top 10 in defense/special teams in every season Trubisky started, contributing to his winning record as a starter overall.

Nah For my own part, I guess I got "fooled" because when I first read it, I thought it was genuine. But again, AB has shown himself to be crazy and narcissistic enough to write something along these same lines. And voila Wonder what David Tepper's would be. Sam Darnold's? Jimmy Clausen's?

His biggest regret is not getting cast as The Joker. Someone else's is casting Jared Leto

I'm not a big fan of his statement here either... Yes, great players help you win in college. In the NFL though, everybody has great players. Sure, some are better than others, but the gap in talent is nowhere near what it often is in college football. As someone else said, at the pro level you're playing Alabama every week. You need way more than just great players. Things like great coaching, a solid scheme, good roster management and more are also necessary. Put that together with gobbledygook like "they'll win when they're ready and it all comes together", and...yeah. Stuff like this is why I still question whether Rhule truly "gets it". He still seems to believe his "process" is working and will eventually get him to The Promised Land.

You are, of course, free to start a thread of your own that provides what you would consider good content. That's not really your thing though, is it?

No but their team is consistently good, and even flashed winning seasons early on. (hell, even their losing seasons involved winning more than five games) So I wonder, if we come back after this year, or the next, or the next, and not much has improved, will you be changing your mind about Tepper or is it going to be like when they kept moving back how many years it would take Michael Vick to learn the West Coast offense? Also, for the record, the Pegulas bought the Bills in September 2014, then hired Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane under 3 years later in early 2017. Since Beane and McDermott were key to the Bills becoming consistent playoff contenders, it doesn't really sound like three or four years is such an unreasonable time frame to expect good things after all.

Actually could be in the sense that I wonder, for example, what people would suggest Matt Rhule's biggest regret is (among others).

How long did it take the Pegulas?

Yeah...don't really know that I'd laugh at this if I were him given that it signifies most people believed he was legitimately dopey enough to say something of that sort It has produced some funny imitations though...

Not quite on that level, but interestingly enough...

And Michael Vick finally learns the West Coast Offense

As an aside, Roger's last name is now "Goodle". Rob Walton mispronounced it and nobody wants to correct him

Should we be patient with Sam Darnold as well? Tepper being bad isn't just a matter of opinion. It's based on objectively very poor results from his efforts, both on the field and off. You can choose to say that might change. I choose to say my verdict on him will change only when he gives me a reason to do so and not a single moment before. Yes, patience is a virtue. Patience without wisdom is an enemy of progress. You have to be wise enough to recognize when being patient just isn't going to pay off.

An option, though one I wouldn't describe as the "that's possible" kind so much as I'd put it in the category of "I'll sh-t in my hat if that happens"

Ah hell...

The guy that Goodell appointed has worked with the NFL before, and generally given them what they wanted. Theoretically he could lower the suspension, but I don't think anybody is taking that idea too seriously. (least of all Watson and the Browns)

There's a very simple way to answer... Point me to the things that make you think Tepper and/or the Panthers are going to be great. Not opinions. Not maybes. Not hypotheticals. Not hopeful ideals. Not optimistic musings about how "anything can happen". Give me specific indicators that, in your opinion, point to future success. My opinion is based on the frankly embarrassing lack of success Tepper has had so far tied together with one very problematic indicator. Tepper has shown an unfortunate tendency to trust the wrong people. Until he learns to be smarter about that, I don't expect things to change much. You want me to believe that better days are over the horizon? Fine. Give me a real, valid reasoning why I should.

Heck, I might have been willing to believe that Haslam was trending in the right direction. But after what happened with Deshaun Watson...Oy Four years in, heading into year five, isn't premature at all. Tepper is, as of this point, a bad owner. I don't really think that's even in question if we're being objective. As mentioned before, the debate isn't about what he's been up to now. It's about whether he can become something else in the future. And until we see genuine signs of improvement, I'm not convinced.

I don't really see too many people who are down on the franchise's future acting aggressive right now. If anything, they seem defeated.

Quick Sam Howell clip... Damn that's good ball placement

I've not said that the team under Tepper will always be a failure. I'm saying that's what it's been so far. Can he get better? Sure, but the fallacy is to act like that's somehow guaranteed. People talk as if Tepper just needs a few years to learn the ropes and then he'll be great. That's far from certain. Heck, from what we've seen to date, I'm not even sure I'd call it likely. There are plenty of NFL owners who have been at it way longer than Tepper and still run mediocre franchises. it's just as possible that he becomes one of those longtime "also ran" owners as it is that he rises to the elite ranks. And frankly, at least for the moment, there's more indicators pointing to the former outcome than there is the latter.

What I love about that clip is that when Moore starts trying to make peace, the one guy is pointing at the other and defending himself like a little child telling their dad "he started it"

Yep. Results say otherwise... I hate to tell you, but that's not guaranteed. There are owners that have been in the league way longer than Tepper who are still running mediocre franchises. Have they learned lessons along the way? Probably, but they still don't have what it takes to build a winner. We have no assurance that Tepper won't turn out to be yet another one of the guys who lacks that knowledge.

Haven't we all generally agreed that a single preseason game doesn't tell you everything you need to know? Willis might turn out to be good or he might not, but I'd say it's a little early for anybody on either side of that debate to start crowing that they've won.

Does Tepper? Evidence gathered to date would suggest the answer is "no".