Icege

My reaction when I see opposing fans chalk up Carolina as a free win for them in the upcoming season

That's a much fairer point worth exploring as opposed to seemingly blaming him for producing more than what a team would usually want from a 34yr old WR. It also allows us to look at who was available then as well: The same season AT was brought in the team experimented with DJ Chark as the X. Would they have been better forgoing both players and signing Nuk for $13M/2yrs? Maybe... but I don't think that exactly changes anything about the final results at the end of the season. In fact, looking at who was signed (and for how much) makes the AT deal look even better in hindsight. $8.3M avg for a dependable, veteran slot... especially when also looking at this most recent free agency: Yea, the previous front offices whiffed horribly on building the WR room. Marty Hurney and Scott Fitterer did horrible jobs there. However, this is a different GM, HC, OC, etc. The HC + OC are WR coaches. If there's a time for the team to go young and develop, it's now imo.

Wonder if this gets any movement on Shough's deal like @Basbear mentioned earlier.

Yes, remind us all how patient you are with rookies by giving up on them after just one season instead of during the offseason. No idea what Adam Thielen has to do with any of this, but go off?

If he looks even slower this season, JT O'Sullivan is gonna be on DEMON TIME.

Fans that are hating on Andy are mainly doing it because they hate Bryce and want another QB on the roster that they believe can take the starting job. That's really all there is to it at this point.

This keeps circling back to the point of... who was supposed to be targeted? The next best option was a rookie drafted at the end of the first round and he got 84 targets over 16 games. Between Coker's emergence and the additions of TMac + Horn Jr, AT is going to see his opportunities going to younger guys. Fretting that he got so many targets last season when Diontae Johnson washed out, XL struggled, and they were left with David Moore as the next best option seems to be missing the forest for the trees.

We're in alignment regarding Thielen not being a game changer/breaker for the Panthers. Getting the ball into hands of playmakers like TMac and XL is going to open up things more than it is getting it to Thielen underneath (or letting him go after 50/50 balls 20yds downfield in his mid-30s). However, in a room where the other guys are two second year guys and two rookies, having a reliable vet that they can learn from is just as important as it is for the QB to have as a reliable third option. I can see that being worth $8.5M (just 3%) of the $279.2M cap... especially when looking at what's left out there: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/position/wr However, the idea that the team is forcing production to Thielen and leading to losses isn't supported by the data. Targets, not receiving yards, are how you can tell if a player is being "force fed." In the two games mentioned, let's look at the other players available... vs. TB 10 targets - Adam Thielen 9 targets - David Moore 8 targets - Tommy Tremble, Xavier Legette 3 targets - Jonathon Brooks 1 target - Dan Chisena, Feleipe Franks, Stephen Sullivan vs. PHI 11 targets - Adam Thielen 8 targets - Xavier Legette 5 targets - Chuba Hubbard, David Moore 2 targets - Tommy Tremble 1 target - Ja'Tavion Sanders, Deven Thompkins There isn't exactly a bounty of other names to throw the ball to. In those games, AT was one of the top 2 WRs. Diontae had been gone by that point. So... yea. Agreed that Thielen isn't exactly carrying the team in his mid-30s, but it's undeniable that he was the most reliable target last season that still has quite a bit of value this season. Whether or not that value is reflected in a manner folks think on the contract is going to come down to personal taste. However, the idea that the team was forcing production to AT and that was the reason behind some losses couldn't be further from the truth.

You said that we forced production to Thielen. Why are you looking at receiving yards to confirm that rather than targets?

Dunking (HA!) aside, the team looks like they're going to be a lot of fun watching develop and challenge next season. I was really only excited about Kalkbrenner, but seeing KJ light it up, McNeeley surprise, Kon respond, and Tidjane's ascension... shoot... it was an easy choice to snag eight tickets for the preseason game vs. OKC down here in Charleston in October.

"Why is Kon so different from any draft pick we've trotted out over the years? You act like he's your brother in law. These are just conversations. It's not like any of us has any say. You're entitled to your opinion same as anyone else is entitled to theirs."

His only two games where he was targeted more than 5 - 6 times was against Tampa and Philly. Both of those were incredibly close losses. Are you sure that your memory and/or assessment are both accurate here? The data doesn't match either.

It is strange seeing the same Panthers fans that complained about Cam not getting enough help turn around and complain that Bryce has received too much help. All because they drafted a WR high in back-to-back seasons, retained a mentor QB as a back-up, and signed a veteran target just like they did for Cam? Weird...

I really appreciate Bill explaining his methodology here because that gives interested parties a chance to try and recreate the results themselves. I believe that it's safe to assume that despite emphasis being placed on WRs that Chuba Hubbard is one of the Panthers' top-5 weapons. Considering targets, yardage, receptions, etc... Adam Thielen and Xavier Legette are also on the list. Jalen Coker's success might have snuck him in there as well. I can't draw a conclusion on who #5 is though. I've narrowed it down to Diontae Johnson, David Moore, Ja'Tavion Sanders, and possibly Rico Dowdle if they're taking into account his production for the Cowboys in 2024.

Finally got to finish listening to Mina and Dan talk about the resurgence of the importance of the run in today's game. A lot of what they discussed lines up with what the Panthers seem to be attempting to build under Canales + Evero. Teams are running the football more than they have in nearly a decade. The best offenses in the league last year (BAL, BUF, DET, GB) were also the top rushing teams. The old assumption that you could pass your way to being a top-5 offense without a consistent ground game isn't holding up anymore. Offenses are getting under center more and leaning into physicality and time of possession. That shift is happening in direct response to defenses going lighter in personnel to stop spread and RPO-heavy attacks. 12 personnel usage is at its highest since 2007. If you have TEs who can block and catch, defenses can't easily match personnel. Baltimore's Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely were used as examples, and the Bengals (who have mostly used 11 personnel with Burrow at the helm) are also leaning into the model with the as pass catching TE (Gesicki) and a blocking TE (Sample). Condensed formations (tight splits, bunch alignments, etc) are now used more than ever. These sets create traffic, allow WRs to block more effectively, and force DBs to tackle. The goal isn't spacing; it's leverage, angles, and chaos. Defenses are trying to respond with more blitzes from the secondary and by rotating coverages post-snap. The big nickel is ever increasing in their importance on the field. Linemen and linebackers are trading in size and strength for speed and athleticism. This makes them more susceptible to the run. They're also taking greater risks on earlier downs. Fourth-down aggressiveness hit 20% league-wide last year, the highest on record. It's more than just going for it though, it's a shift in offensive philosophy. Teams now call second and third down differently when they know they'll use all four downs. That makes checkdowns, 3yd gains, etc meaningful building blocks instead of perceived failures. Hearing all of that and looking at the Panthers, it's difficult to not do a double take. The Panthers have an RB room built for the grind. Chuba is the workhorse, Dowdle is a more than capable back-up that can also start, and Etienne provides further depth. If JB's year off puts him in place to come back and contribute to the roster after Dowdle's deal expires, look out! The emphasis on time of possession and intelligent decision making fits Bryce's playstyle as well as the returning OL. With defenses getting lighter, having a mauling offensive line is going to make life even easier for the RBs which in turn will make the QBs job simpler. On the defensive side of things, the team got bigger in the trenches and brought in one of the best tackling run-stopping DBs in the league in Tre'von Moehrig. That's a wise investment when looking at the division and realizing that they're going to have to defend against Alvin Kamara, Bucky Irvin, Bijan Robinson, and Tyler Allegeier twice a year. Regarding 12 personnel, Tremble is more of a blocker but is a capable pass catcher. Sanders is more of a pass catcher but might be more effective in the run game with his improved physique. Mitchell Evans is another TE that can both block and catch. While they might not have an elite guy in the room yet, having versatile tight ends has been the shift vs. just having an elite pass-catching TE. The team didn't run as much 12 sets as the rest of the league, but when considering the injuries that took place it (and that TE2 was a rookie) it makes sense. It'll be interesting to see if they lean more into 12 this season. Condensed formations focus on creating match ups on the perimeter rather than working the space inside created via spread offenses. This plays into Bryce's game as well as the receiving corps that the team is working with. TMac and XL provide shot plays on the perimeter which, if successful, will lead to more space inside for Bryce to work with. While he's shown that he's willing to go over the middle despite his size, there is also the reality of congestion over the middle being more difficult for him to deal with unless he buys time with his legs to let things clear up. With Evero's love of the safety position and the addition of Moehrig, expect him to rotate down as the big nickel and occasional three safety looks. Evero wants DBs that can tackle and sent Jaycee on some well-timed corner blitzes last season. With the DL being retooled, he might be able to leverage Wallace/Jewell to provide pressure from the LB position as well by blitzing them on early downs. I don't think I will ever recover from Jimmy Clausen's checkdowns, but it's good to hear that those are no longer the drive killers that they used to be. Taking the checkdown on 2nd & 7 to get to 3rd & 5 to get to 4th & 2 is becoming increasingly viable (though not exactly dependable).

Seeing as how big brother Bryce hater immediately slid in to wax poetic about "waiting and seeing" (after spending the entire offseason doing the opposite), I've got a feeling we’ll be hearing the same old gospel soon: Tampa is the clear division favorite Bryce has size limitations And of course: "They gave up too much for him, so he must throw for 300+ every game or it wasn’t worth it" I've developed a bit more of an exotic palate than some, though--so while some might fear the taste of crow, I've grown rather fond of it over the years. Hopefully I'll be having a nibble after listening, but I've got a feeling they'll have more salt in their diet than I will crow...

Considering how you and a few others were saying that the team needs to move on from Bryce in 2025, that he isn't good throwing deep, and has no chance of being a quality NFL QB... I'd say inevitably incorrect.

Funny how some of the loudest voices now "cautioning optimism" were the same ones spending all last offseason trying to smother any hope or support...

The offseason is when we're allowed to hope and dream! Though I can understand fans lacking in emotional resiliency wanting to be hesitant to hope instead of mope.

Finally getting a chance today to sit down and watch this and per the usual... That Franchise Guy continues to be one of the few content creators out there that isn't Panthers-centric but is still clearly pays attention to the team. About to wrap up the coaching & scheme section, and I appreciate how he points out that Evero was legitimately having to trot out practice squad guys as starters. I knew it had been tough on the defense last season after Derrick Brown and Shaq Thompson went down, but man... it took seeing the total snap percentages at the end of the season to realize just what the team was working with... 2024 DL: A'Shawn Robinson, Shy Tuttle, LaBryan Ray, Charles Harris, DeShawn Williams, Nick Thurman vs. 2025 DL: Derrick Brown, Bobby Brown III, Tershawn Wharton, A'Shawn Robinson, Cam Jackson, LaBryan Ray/Jaden Crumedy/Shy Tuttle (pick one)

While it's fair to question how impactful a player's relationship with a coach is (especially if someone has questions regarding said coach), it's important to also evaluate the difference between the players here. Jordan Fuller was pick #199 in the 6th round while Justin Simmons was #98 in the 3rd round. Jordan Fuller might have gotten a Super Bowl ring while he was with the Rams, but he got it while on the IR. Justin Simmons, on the other hand, is a x2 Pro-Bowler (2020, 2023), x4 second-team All-Pro (2019, 2021 - 2023), and was the NFL co-leader in INTs (2022). Simmons has also fallen off in the last couple of seasons though, grade-wise. He very well might not be that same player, which could be why the Falcons have elected to replace him with Fuller. As far as getting the best out of what he has, asking him to produce with a starting DL of A'Shawn Robinson (63.56% of the defense's snaps), LaBryan Ray (51.48%), and Shy Tuttle (50.08%) isn't reasonable. Wonnum only played in 8 games, but had the second most % of snaps (37.27%) at EDGE behind Clowney (53.53%). The second-string DL based on snap % was... and don't read this if you just ate... Charles Harris (34.48%), DeShawn Williams (27.67%), and Nick Thurman (19.7%). The second-string EDGEs based on snap count would be DJ Johnson (32.27%) and Cam Gill (18.14%). With the investments made in the run defense this season though, especially on the defensive line, it's more than fair to demand a complete turn around from last season.

Couldn't be happier for Shaq. Gets to go to a familiar system with familiar faces in McDermott + Rasul Douglas after a tough injury late in his career. Wish that the team could've brought him back for one more season, but Wallace's emergence made that a lot harder.

Curious to see how Evero adjusts his scheme given the shallow CB room. Does he stick with rotating from two-high to single-high looks more than any DC in the league again, leaning heavily on Cover-3? Or does he shift back toward more Cover-4 with the occasional LB blitz mixed in? Only three months until we find out…