LinvilleGorge

Thr Moderna vaccine is almost certainly going to be a flop. Definitely looking like a good old fashioned "pump and dump". https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/27/moderna-executives-cashed-out-shares-stock-price-soared/

I think people overstate the decline in deaths. We topped out around 2600 per day. We're still over 1000 per day. We topped out at about 38000 new cases per day (with much less testing than we currently have). We're still over 20000 per day. We're still 6-8 weeks out from having any inkling of how many are going to die from these coming spikes. My suspicion is that the overall mortality rate is probably about the same since we're likely catching a substantially larger percentage of the overall cases with more widespread testing - while still missing a lot if not even most of them. What these spikes will likely guarantee though is that COVID has a very strong foothold going into cold/flu season. All the testing and contact tracing in the world won't matter if we still have too many cases to keep track of. We didn't learn poo from our failure to take this pandemic seriously before it reached our shores. We managed to take it seriously for 3-4 months at best even after it did. Strap in folks, it's gonna be a helluva ride this winter.

ICUs will likely be past their capacity all over the country again by the end of June. People will cry, " OMG!!! Who could've predicted this?!" Uh... every virologist and epidemiologist on the planet. Many of whom now support the widespread protests for fear of being labeled racist. Unfortunately, the virus doesn't care if you're wearing a MAGA hat at an Ozark pool party or holding a BLM sign at a protest. As long as large groups are gathering together, it's going to spread like wildfire.

Read the second link.

https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-governor-increases-live-sporting-event-capacity-to-50 Meanwhile... https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases-spike-in-texas-and-arizona-1819ce9f-8565-483a-b367-b678a607154d.html Yikes.

Fortunately, they've been outdoor gatherings. That's a lot better than indoor, but we're still going to see spikes with thousands gathering.

It's possible, but you're assuming people area actually going to stick with it while I'm personally seeing more and more people who definitely aren't. We're definitely trending the wrong direction on it.

Yeah, that's definitely jumping the gun big time. It could also mean that it's largely a less vulnerable population being infected.

Explain the logic behind this.

We're going to see major spikes due in large part to A) people being reckless with reopening and B) the large protests. I'm really disappointed in the public leaders and even public healthcare experts who haven't cautioned against these protests. You can support the idea of the protests while still strongly cautioning that gathering in large numbers right now is a really, REALLY bad idea and a public healthcare risk. The virus doesn't give a poo about your motivation to gather in large crowds. It'll spread just as easily at a social/political protest as it does at an Ozark pool party.

The problem they're going to have is that virtually every major city in a battleground state is going to have Democratic leadership. It's almost as if Trump doesn't think things through before he acts on a whim.

A huge downside from all the large gatherings to protest will be a major spike in COVID cases over the next two weeks.

Officials with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) are projecting a relaxation of social distancing will lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases by mid-summer. During a Zoom conference Monday, officials predicted that continued lax of social distancing guidelines to lower levels (45%) will lead to a surge of sick people that could exceed hospital capacity in the coming months. This model holds true even if implemented with mask wearing, increased case detection and isolation, and higher levels of social distancing by all older adults, officials said. They predict that in most scenarios, the next peak will be larger than the April peak. The CDPHE said there is a continued need for social distancing of at least 65% of the population unless most people 60 years and older maintain high levels of social distancing as seen during the stay-at-home period (80%). Officials also said they won't know the impact of the spread of the virus from recent large gatherings of people during protests for George Floyd for another two weeks.

There's a reason why I turned down a full ride at App even though I love Boone.

This was painfully predictable. We need to start opening the economy back up, but part of being able to do that is having a populace intelligent enough to realize they still need to make efforts to socially distance and wear masks. Just "going back to normal" isn't an intelligent approach.

LOL! That was a quality read.

You hit the nail on the head a few pages ago.

Colorado has actually been one of the more transparent states in terms of numbers. We're actually dividing our numbers between deaths "caused by COVID" and deaths "with COVID" that weren't necessarily a direct result of COVID.

sorry, misinterpreted what you were saying

No. They think we're under-counting. Likely by a lot.

Yeah, virtually every virologist and epidemiologist on that planet who are highly specialized in this regard strongly disagree with this.

Oh lord, so now some quacks on YouTube and a handful of anecdotal accounts equates to proof of widespread fraud? There may also be cases of under-reporting when we had a severe shortage of testing supplies until very recently? Well, ya don't say...

They've made repeated "errors" that forced their governor to publicly apologize. I don't see anyway to paint rearranges dates in data sets to fit the curve you want to portray as an honest mistake. They flat out lied and manipulated data. I don't see why we'd trust them to not be doing it again.

Seems like most of the claims of inflating data have been conspiracy driven. Virtually every virologist and epidemiologist on the planet is onboard with the idea that official cases are far under-reported due to testing numbers. Georgia was straight up changing the dates on their data to show a false downward trend to justify their reopening. Hell, even Trump was saying that Georgia was being reckless.

Georgia has already been caught intentionally manipulating their data, so I'm not sure what to believe out of that state.