MHS831

More about Ransom, 4th round, pick 122. I found this to be very interesting--look how they used him at Ohio State-- Some of us had him as a Strong Safety, but I just think he is a hybrid. I mean, 60% of the snaps last year he had deep safety responsibilities. In 2023, Ransom was deep 53% of snaps. Note how that transition was gradual when in 2022, where he was deep only 31% of the time-- his primary responsibilities were as a box safety who covered the slot frequently. While his first duties were that of a box safety in 2022, he evolved into a deep safety with some slot coverage abilities. He is described as very smart, and you can see how Ohio State gave him responsibilities that require a very versatile skill set and level of intelligence. I think, when all the dust settles, Ransom will be our steal of the draft. Horn is right there with him.

I find it interesting that TMac was shown here practicing without gloves. Is that a new approach to improving hands because the gloves are so sticky? If you think about the draft and evaluated the talent at each position and rate them by round, you see what the Panthers did--get the best WR in the draft. in round 2, you had WRs like Bech and Tre Harris going--meanwhile, the Panthers grabbed Scourton (late first round grade) and Princely (expected to be drafted in the middle of the second round). Bech and Harris were projected to be third rounders. If you evaluate the draft by your expectations of the performance of the talent, you are guessing and trying for clicks. However, if you understand the depth of talent at each position and align that with needs, the strategy becomes the issue--not a subjective guess. Did the Panthers address WR and Edge wisely, considering the players likely to be available? Yes. Ask yourself this: In the Panther system, is it possible that Scourton would be a better edge than Walker? I think he is a better fit. Princely? Better fit. Morgan had an excellent draft. When you see Ransom play S, you will be convinced that it was a Home Run. That pick was solid and he will be here for a long time.

There are times during the prolonged, pre-draft process that you abandon your gut feelings and allow yourself to be persuaded by popular opinion. My gut was more consistent with what Morgan et al did than my conclusions. Here is why (my theory): 1. With social media, one opinion is often repeated until it seems like the majority. The more you see it, the more you feel that your gut was wrong. You second guess and conform at times. In January, if you told me TMac would be there at 8, I would have been very interested because there weren't other WRs like him and he was dominant on a bad team. I let the comments about film, questions about separation, etc. sway my opinion. I started comparing him to Kelvin Benajamin in my head (work ethic). So I took him off my board. 2. Morgan said something rather profound (parphrasing): "We did not want to be restricted by need." IMO, the biggest needs were Edge, S, WR. We assume that the biggest need is aligned with the first overall pick in most situations. Everyone was talking about Jalon Walker because Micah Parsons is a similar beast and Abdul Carter would be off the board. However, as a former coach at Salisbury High School and someone who vaguely knew Walker's father before he was born, I still could not see the fit here. I think Walker is a great person and will be a good pro, but he did not fill our needs. TMac was the best player who filled a primary need and we could not find another TMac-type player in the draft. However, there would be second round Edges that were, in my view, potentially as good NFL players. The first through early third rounds were loaded with edges. 3. Since edge was our biggest need, Morgan added 2--one in the second and one in the third. They mentioned referring to statistics to see the likelihood of a player being available at 55 as opposed to 59, guiding their trade practices, for example. I noticed the talent grades did not drop as much for edge players into early round three and the WR market dropped rapidly. Morgan mentioned that they only had 3 second round WRs on their board, which is why TMac in round 1 was smart. I also posted the following stats from the internet and it is never wrong: First-round picks in the NFL Draft have a higher success rate than those in the second or third rounds. Whilethe first round boasts a success rate of around 58%, the second round is nearly as good at 49%. However, the third round sees a significant drop, with only a 25% success rate. So let's do math. If you draft 1 edge at #8 he has (since it is early in the round) about a 60% chance of being successful. Morgan would earn 6 success tokens for his Edge need. If you draft an edge in the second, Morgan would earn 5 success tokens for his edge need. If you draft an edge in the third, Morgan earns 2.5 success tokens for his edge need. So Morgan gets the draft's WR unicorn in the first round and by using the second and third round selections, addresses the biggest need by collecting 7.5 success tokens instead of 6. Morgan has a high probability of being successful with 2 of 3 of the teams' biggest needs. He was not needs driven, however, he was market driven. Supply and demand. He was smart. Had we drafted Walker, a player who is a stud and can be most effective as an ILB with versatility, I am not sure we successfully addressed the need. Other players with first round talent either lacked college productivity or had red flags. We would HAVE to target one of the 3 WRs the Panthers had listed as second round possibilities (I am guessing Higgins and Burden III and Beck--all far inferior to TMac). Higgins and Burden III were drafted before they were within trade range and it is not surprising that happened--leaving the Panthers with a only Beck at pick 57. Putting that in perspective, Edge Scourton was taken at pick 51 and Mike Green was taken at pick 59. However, there were 5 edge players taken in the second round. There were 6 edge players taken in round 3. Value TMac was rated #4 by PFF and J. Walker was rated #25. Meanwhile Beck (WR), the only second round WR available in round 2 (I should point out that Tre Harris was rated by PFF at #66, and he was taken in the mid second) was rated 40. Had we taken an edge in round 1, it is likely we would have ended up with J Walker (#25) and in round 2 Beck (#40). Instead, we drafted TMac (#4) and Scourton (PFF #29) and Princely (PFF #50). https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2025-nfl-draft-board-big-board In terms of trade value points, the PFF scores value Morgan's first and second round vs. the probably first and second round (had we taken Walker and then the best WR available in round 2 Beck): So you see, Morgan ended up, using the PFF ranking system, doubling the value he got from the first two picks than if he had taken Walker instead of TMac and then drafted the best WR left at pick 51 or 57. In terms of what actually happened, TMac was drafted at #8 and Scourton was taken at #51--this suggests that the Panthers got great value vs. the PFF rankings. Walker was taken at #15, (10 places higher than his rankings) and Beck was taken at 58, (18 places lower than his rankings.) So how did Morgan do if you compare drafting Walker/WR vs TMac/Edge? So Morgan's value was still 24% higher than it would have been had he drafted Walker. Of course, this does not factor in trades, etc. but you get the idea.

Good stuff. Interesting.

If Mays had not played well last year, I and credit Hunt and Lewis for some of that, he would have done something at C--not a great draft for it. I guess he figured that we could get by with Mays and Corbett for a season. I hope Mays continues to improve.

I am all for playing vets in their primes, but when they show signs of going on the decline, cut them and develop some young players. I really think they are doing this with the OL--the only reason we kept Corbett, the way I understand it, is due to the contract--it was not beneficial to cut him. Might as well see what he has left and then make the move.

That is the other side of the coin and certainly should be the first consideration. However, most UDFAs don't make the roster and $250K right out of college is security. I would also assume that the team that offered that kinda money wants me more that the others. The gave the big bucks to players at positions of need in terms of depth, so if you can rake in $250k AND make the practice squad--you have a shot (and $500K in the bank).

I had the same thought.

I think this is a youth movement and this is a sign. Personally, I see four or five UDFA making this roster for this reason. And veterans on the back end of their bell-shaped curves are not going to be given depth jobs--only developing talent. That is how I would treat the bottom 20 spots, anyway. They want to see what they have in camp first, which is smart. I think the following players should be concerned (and the players who will take their jobs): David Moore WR (Jimmy Horn, sixth round pick) Hunter Renfrow WR (Kobie Hudson, Jacolby George) Yosh Nijman OT (Michael Tarquin) Jarrett Kingston OG (Luke Kandra--if both play well, I would not be surprised to see Zavala traded--he played well last year and has some value) Amare Barno Edge/OLB (Mapalo Mwansa--foreign player with some upside who does not count against the 53--no brainer for Panthers). DJ Johnson Edge/OLB (With the additions of Princely, Scourton, and Jones to add to Wonnum, I see no way DJ makes the roster) LaBryan Ray DE (Jared Harrison-Hunt. After adding Wharton to go with Brown and Robinson, Ray or Crumedy will be cut--or both). Shy Tuttle DE/DT (Cam Jackson, fifth round pick--At DT, we signed veteran in Brown III and drafted a NT. DE is crowded as well. I was surprised we re-signed him, frankly, but he is insurance should Jackson fail to step up. Jaden Crumedy DE (Harrison-Hunt is his competition, but he is also competing with Ray and possibly Tuttle). Akayleb Evans CB (Mike Reid, Corey Thornton. Evans played OK at the end of the season. He was not a liability.) S. Bartholomew CB (Mike Reid, Corey Thornton. Bartholomew drew some difficult assignments last season down the stretch, but in the few plays I saw him, he was decent--got beat by some great throws and held his own.) Jacoby Windmon and Jon Rhattigan, ILBs (Martin-Scott, but watch out for Tuasivi, Nomura. should compete with these two, but all seem destined for the PS or being cut. LB is suddenly a crowded room. They like Cherelus who had a 63.3 PFF grade on 158 snaps--not bad. Rozeboom was just added from the Rams and he should be the third ILB behind Jewell and Wallace. Special teams will be the deciding factor if they keep 5.) Nick Scott S (Jack Henderson, Trevian Thomas, or Isaac Gifford--Scott is 30 and struggled in pass protection and against the run--otherwise, he was great. He is insurance and his contract features no guaranteed money. I fully expect Gifford, Henderson, or Thomas to take the fourth safety spot and one could stick as a special teamer--they may want a pure free safety for cover three packages (if we run them?), but in Henderson they get a player who is fairly similar to the other 3--Moehrig, Richardson, and Ransom. Regardless, it is highly likely that an UDFA makes the roster at S) Best chances (in my view from the outside looking in) for an UDFA to make the roster: Kicker: Fitzgerald (90% sure) Safety: Henderson or Thomas or Gifford (75% sure that one will make the roster--about 30% sure that 2 will) Cornerback: Reid or Thornton (50% sure that one makes the roster; confident that both end up on PS if not on roster) Offensive Guard: (50% sure that Kandra wins a spot. Kingston and Kandra battle it out the for backup LG job) Offensive Tackle: (35% sure that Nijman--29-- loses his job to Tarquin. Cutting him frees about $1.5m. For these reasons, I see 4-5 UDFA making the team. S and K--near locks.

McCarthy ahead of Drake Maye? Well, they mentioned the offense he will play in--compare that to Maye's offense--but this is not really about the offenses is it? A player who won the job in a difficult situation and has played well (over a 70 PFF grade in 2024) with little offense behind him falls behind a guy who played well in college and has not taken an NFL snap? Are we evaluating the player or the player in the system? I'd take Maye over McCarthy all day long if they were in the same offense.

Yeah, I hope Cade wins the job. I am pretty sure Corbett is one and done here, but if he wins the job after 1 healthy season in three, he will ask for a big extension, in my estimation. If Mays shows well early, I would extend him to a decent contract while you have options. Corbett has played 9 of the past 34 games.

People were not that high on Mays during the season. I saw some good stuff from him and felt that we have our center. He and Hunt are tight, fwiw. When the good players accept you, it is because they know and trust you. I am not sold on Corbett as the starter--Mays, in my view, earned it.

We overthunk it. We had a need for big #1 WR. Our coach had Evans in Tampa. The draft was not a good value in the first with edge players, but I really think we got 2 steals in rounds 2 and 3. I think the second round talent at edge (since Pearce and Green seemed to have baggage) was pretty level. Common sense says you grab the Mike Evans-type WR and dip in at edge on day 2. We went after DTs pretty hard in free agency, and the draft was deep there--I think they did this because the plan was WR and Edge and maybe RB and (rather obviously) Safety. The key was making sure TMac was there because there were really no others like him. ---- I dont think Morgan was bad last year; just had some bad rookie GM luck. XL has upside, but was raw...I would not call him a bust yet--too many variables working against him. I think he will be a good #2. I think Coker will be our slot post AT, and I REALLY like the Horn pick. This seems to have been their plan if you consider free agency ---re-sign Horn and Jackson--Moehrig, Roseboom, Wharton, Brown III, Jones--If the focus was WR, RB, S, and Edge, Morgan hit a home run.

I was having the same thoughts. You might need to get some help.

Revisiting the Prediction thread from April 3--a full 3 weeks before the draft. I thought this was interesting because I was just repeating rumors and infusing them with my comments. We trust names like McShay--look how wrong he was! Green indicates the rumor came true in some form. Red indicates that the rumor was wrong-- Rumor: McShay just reported in his podcast that the "winds have shifted" about Shedeur Sanders. He referenced back in October when Dad basically said, "If we tell you not to draft him, don't draft him" to Shedeur wearing a Browns hat. (Nobody thought this would happen in round 5 or with the Browns). Recently, Deion has come out to announce that he is OK with wherever his son goes--while the intentions were good, he is still one-too-many voices in the process. I think it was at the combine when Shedeur responded to a question, "Do you know who my dad is?" while laughing. He was asked about the Raiders during an interview, and Shedeur said, "I ain't going sixth..." (if he meant 'round' he was right--but he meant overall) He was referencing living with criticism, etc. but continually referencing Dad may not be helping--but this shift in his and his father's approach to the draft suggests that they are not quite as confident, now that teams have signed free agents. McShay suggests that Cam will go #1 to the Titans, but the Browns may not think Sanders (who some have a second round grade on--he has him at #19 overall) is worth the #2 pick, and that might lead to them taking the best player in the draft (Carter, but do not rule out Hunter). Side Rumor: There are rumblings that the Browns could land Cousins from the Falcons, giving them a starting QB and the #2 overall pick. The Giants just signed Russell Wilson and J. Winston. Daboll and Shoen may not be ready to put their jobs on the back of a developmental QB--so they take the best player on their board, Hunter (if the Browns take Carter). New England probably drafts an OT, but they would like to trade back. Some mocks have them taking Jeanty--but I do not see Vrabel going RB with so many needs. Side Rumor: The Jets may want to move up for Hunter (if he is there) and the Pats may want to move back and take a T. So if Hunter is on the board at #4, look for a NY-Boston trade. The Jags do not need a QB, but most mocks have them staying put and taking Mason Graham, DT Michigan. Side Rumor: The smart money has the Jags taking Mason Graham, but some think they are in love with TMac. Others have TMac going to the Seahawks later. The Raiders are supposedly in love with RB Jeanty to go in Pete Carrol's offense. I see that as a likelihood. The Jets seem to like Fields and bringing in Sanders makes little sense, but it could not be ruled out. The drama, however, after the Rodgers experiment, is not ideal. Most NY area experts have the Jets taking Membou OT or Warren TE--always take the top OT over the top TE. The Panthers are likely to have Walker on their board and should be fielding offers. According to McShay, a team still needing a QB would be calling the Panthers to get ahead of the Saints. McShay mentions that the Giants could be in play to move back up to grab Sanders, but I see Indianapolis as a more likely candidate, with Richardson and Daniel Jones as their QBs at the moment. For the Colts to move up to 14 it would not require a huge investment in draft capital. The Colts could send Carolina their first (14) and second (45) to Carolina for their first (8) and a fourth (111) and fifth (140). Side Rumor: According to McShay, the folks at FanDuel give the over and under odds for Sanders being drafted at 7.5 to 8.5. The Panthers pick 8th. What does this mean? First, Jon Snow will have to change his user name and I think Special Juan is required to report his status to us to be on this board. Secondly, it means the Panthers could sit at #8 and take Walker or move back, where players like Warren, TMac, Mykel Williams, or a top S (Starks/Emmanwori), Golden, etc. would be in play. In addition, getting pick #45 would land a player like Princely (Edge). (However, Princely was drafted in round 3--Scourton was the selection at pick 51--Princely went pick 77 in the third)

Am I missing something here? Why would any NFL team sign him?

Could this be about flushing out Fitterer's additions?

You are right--might have gotten my stats mixed up--trying to see where I got it. Could not find it---my bad. Sorry for the mistake.

Yes. Nobody saw this coming---however, I thought TMac was faster than Evans in the 40---Evans ran a 4.53....

Hard to say with London--he never ran--combine or pro day. Here is what AI says, and it is always 100% accurate: Drake London's 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine was not recorded because he was dealing with a fractured ankle at the time. While he didn't participate in the 40 at the Combine or his pro day, his coach said his 40 time was estimated to be between 4.4 and 4.53 seconds. Some sources also list his 40 time at 4.58 and 4.6 seconds Unless you are running 9s all day, top end 40 speed is rarely reached. I have always looked at the 3-cone drill. At his pro day, TMac ran a 6.86--pretty good, actually. For context, it is faster that Rome Odunze (6.88) who ran a 4.45 40. Odunze is 6'3" and weighs 216, fwiw, and is considered a very good route runner with no wasted motion. Mike Evans 3-cone was 7.08. To put it in a broader context, through 2022, with all NFL prospect 3-cone drills combined, a 6.86 puts TMac in the.89th percentile- Now consider the fact that he is 6'4" and 220. We might have something here. '

For a WR, 6'4" 220 would be decent size--if you hit the 235 range, I imagine that it costs you speed. I think his speed was an issue. He ran a 4.48 at his pro day. At the combine, he weighed in at 219 (NFL.com). Mike Evans weighed 225 as a rookie and is also 6'4". He ran a 4.53 40. My main and only concern about TMac is between his ears--and it could be nothing. He seems a bit silly, and it seems that he is in celebration mode when I want him to be in "let's get to work" mode. Again, some people are just like that, but when they put the helmet on, they get focused. I want to see that "dawg" before I get overly excited. The pick is growing on me, and if you broaden the scope to consider what was available in free agency and the draft, it makes sense. I don't think we got lesser Edge rushers in the second and third rounds, frankly, than what we could have gotten in the first.

He is a game manager--average. Unless you have a Mahommes or Allen or Burrow--trade your starting qb and draft one. I could pour the money in my defense and OL and draft a promising young QB. Wow.

We have got to have our rookies step up--TMac and Ransom in particular. Princely and Scourton will need to develop quickly, but I do not expect a miracle from either. We still have Wonnum (averages about 8 sacks per season) and Jones. Our CBs need to stay healthy. Expect a run-first, play action pass offense.

Why the hell is XL wearing a tie? Starting to worry me. Nevermind. Just watched it.

They are going to try to make it the Hunter show. We need to welcome him to the NFL.