Week 13 WIN against the Saints - Stats & Analysis

[KB_fan]

Great Cam stats & short video about his performance the past few weeks posted here by @TN05

*In the last four weeks, Cam has 244 passing yards per game, 67.7% completion percentage, 11-1 TD to INT ratio, plus 33.3 rushing yards per game and 2 rushing TDs.
*Cam is tied for 6th in passing touchdowns. He is also tied for 4th in rushing touchdowns.
*Cam has as many or more rushing touchdowns than 13 NFL teams.

 

UPDATE: the Bucky Brooks "Move the Sticks" video link is here:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/move-the-sticks/0ap3000000596523/Where-does-Cam-Newton-rank-right-now

What's included in the OP I've linked is just a screenshot, not the actual video.

[KB_fan]

Thanks to @thomas96 for posting updated drops data in another thread.

Earlier in the season, we were worst, so it's great to see we've dropped down to #5.

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Team Dropped Passes and Drops Percentage

	Team	Targets	Drops	Drops Percentage
1	Houston Texans	496	27	5.4
2	Philadelphia Eagles	449	24	5.3
3	Oakland Raiders	456	23	5.0
4	New York Giants	463	22	4.8
5	Carolina Panthers	371	17	4.6
6	New York Jets	451	20	4.4
7	Atlanta Falcons	476	21	4.4
8	St. Louis Rams	368	16	4.3
9	Jacksonville Jaguars	467	20	4.3
10	Chicago Bears	402	17	4.2
11	Denver Broncos	440	18	4.1
12	San Francisco 49ers	370	15	4.1
13	Green Bay Packers	422	17	4.0
14	Kansas City Chiefs	370	14	3.8
15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	371	14	3.8
16	New England Patriots	504	19	3.8
17	Minnesota Vikings	348	13	3.7
18	Cincinnati Bengals	380	14	3.7
19	Washington Redskins	393	14	3.6
20	Miami Dolphins	433	15	3.5
21	Detroit Lions	476	16	3.4
22	Cleveland Browns	464	15	3.2
23	Indianapolis Colts	466	15	3.2
24	Buffalo Bills	353	11	3.1
25	Dallas Cowboys	354	11	3.1
26	Tennessee Titans	394	12	3.0
27	Arizona Cardinals	413	12	2.9
28	New Orleans Saints	492	14	2.8
29	San Diego Chargers	497	12	2.4
30	Pittsburgh Steelers	422	10	2.4
31	Seattle Seahawks	338	6	1.8
32	Baltimore Ravens	489	7	1.4

 

Cam for MVP

 

[KB_fan]

Adam Schein is now fully on the Cam for MVP bandwagon

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000596444/article/fact-or-fiction-cam-newton-for-mvp-vikings-wont-win-the-north

Here's an excerpt:

1) Cam Newton will win his first MVP award.

This is a fact.

Tom Brady was leading this race by a hair entering Week 13, but now my vote is going to Cam Newton, who tossed five touchdown passes for the second time in three weeks and survived seemingly countless Ted Ginn Jr. drops in guiding the Panthers to a huge win over the Saints. Carolina's 12th victory of the year -- a nailbiter against an NFC South rival that involved five lead changes, four of which came in the fourth quarter -- was all Cam. And it was brilliant. He completed 28 of 41 passes for 331 yards, including a clutch fourth-down completion that kept alive the drive that ended with Newton throwing the clinching scoring toss with just over a minute left. He's been on fire lately, notching a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 14:2 and a combined passer rating of 113.9 over his past five games -- and his Week 13 performance might have permanently shifted momentum in his favor.

Remember, voters for this award only vote for one player; we don't rank it like baseball or the NBA with a weighted point system. That said, my top three candidates are Cam, Brady and Carson Palmer, with Cam in the lead to get my vote heading into the final quarter of the season.

[Ace_Aladdin]

On December 7, 2015 at 3:03:44 AM, KB_fan said:

WOW!   12 & 0!!!

What a game!  Amazing that on a day when we had a lot of errors, we still came away with the win, winning a shoot out with Drew Brees in the Superdome.   WAY TO GO PANTHERS!!!  KINGS OF THE SOUTH!!!

Here's a thread to round up and gather various statistics and analysis from this week.

Good game but I want be satisfied until we get the win # 19! Keep Pounding! 

[KB_fan]

Panthers PR Dept. ‏@PanthersPR 2h2 hours ago

#Panthers QB Cam Newton in the red zone this season: 111.5 passer rating, 19 TDs, 0 INTs

[KB_fan]

More on Cam's 4th Q excellence this season.  Really good article from David Newton:

http://espn.go.com/blog/carolina-panthers/post/_/id/17738/panthers-cam-newton-has-become-the-nfls-best-fourth-quarter-quarterback

Here's an Excerpt:
 

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CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton playfully referred to wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery as "Clutchery" last week.

The real clutch player is Newton.

He’s been almost unstoppable in the fourth quarter this season, particularly when his team is behind. Sunday’s 41-38 win at New Orleans that improved the Panthers to 12-0 was a prime example.

Newton completed 9-of-13 pass attempts for 149 yards and two touchdowns in the final frame, including the game-winner to Cotchery with 1:05 remaining.

For the season, Newton has completed 20-of-26 pass attempts (76.9%) when trailing in the fourth quarter. Throw in the victory over Indianapolis and he’s 24-for-32 (75%) for 359 yards and three touchdowns when trailing in the fourth quarter and overtime.

 

Cam Newton's fourth-quarter Total QBR improvement by years:

Year	QBR
2015	91.9*
2014	67.5
2013	40.6
2012	51.3
2011	38.5
*First in NFL

Newton’s overall Total Quarterback Rating of 98.8 in the fourth quarter ranks 1st in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information. That’s a huge jump from his ranking of 21st (48.1) from 2011-2014.

 

 

[KB_fan]

Joe Person ‏@josephperson 30m30 minutes ago

TE Greg Olsen needs 83 receiving yds to become 3rd Panthers player w/ back-to-back 1,000-yd seasons (Steve Smith, Muhsin Muhammad).

[KB_fan]

Nice analysis by Max Henson:

http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/Panthers-Negating-Negative-Plays/2ad090d1-2f59-4091-ba68-3432b752169b

here's an excerpt

 

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Panthers Negating Negative Plays

If you’ve watched the Panthers offense closely this season, you’ve probably noticed a valuable quality develop.

They don’t let negative plays ruin drives.

Runs stopped in the backfield, penalties, sacks – those plays can be drive-killers, and in previous seasons, Carolina struggled to move past them.

But this year, the Panthers are confident, and to a certain extent, relaxed when adversity strikes during a possession.

Their red zone success is a product of such resilience. Carolina currently ranks fifth in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage, finding the end zone 65.3 percent of the time. Last year, the Panthers ranked 26th in that category, scoring touchdowns just 48.1 percent of the time.

"Number one, we’ve had less negative plays," offensive coordinator Mike Shula said. "When you lose yardage in the red zone, it’s hard. Now that being said, the last few weeks, we’ve lost yards and had the ability to overcome it with good execution and not trying to force the ball."

Consider some examples:

In the latest victory at New Orleans, the Panthers faced third-and-goal from the 3-yard line in the third quarter. A touchdown pass to running back Jonathan Stewart was nullified due to a holding call on right tackle Mike Remmers . Next play, quarterback Cam Newton stood tall in the pocket and found wide receiver Ted Ginn, Jr. for a 13-yard touchdown.

On the very next possession, Carolina had first-and-goal from the 8-yard line and a Newton rush was stuffed for a 5-yard loss. Next play, Newton calmly delivered a strike to wide receiver Devin Funchess

for another 13-yard touchdown.

It should be noted how brilliant Newton has been inside the 20. He’s posted 19 touchdown passes and zero interceptions for a passer rating of 111.5.

 

 

[KB_fan]

More detail on the week 13 PFF grades via this article at C-S-R

http://www.catscratchreader.com/2015/12/8/9870760/panthers-41-saints-38-handing-out-the-grades

• Cam Newton (+8.0) was terrific, earning his highest grade of the year by a wide margin.  Notably, he was great under pressure (+4.0), when he completed 10 of 14 passes for 154 yards with two touchdowns and no picks (passer rating of 147.0).
• He doesn’t put up gaudy statistics, but Jerricho Cotchery (+1.0) was solid again in his limited role (played just 27 of 83 offensive snaps).
• Mike Remmers (-0.8) received a negative grade for the fourth straight week.
• Although Trai Turner (+0.8) was solid overall, he had his worst game in pass protection (-1.3) as he allowed four hurries.  He had not allowed more than two hurries in a game all season.
• Greg Olsen is an excellent receiving TE, but continues to struggle with run blocking (-2.1 this week).  He’s only graded positively in the run game once all year.

Charles Johnson (+2.3) was the top performer on Carolina’s defense.  He registered four QB pressures (one hit and three hurries).

For the first time this season, Luke Kuechly (-0.5) graded out negatively.  He made just one stop (solo tackle that constitutes an offensive failure).

Despite having a key interception, Kurt Coleman (-2.7) received his worst grade of the season.  He missed three tackles and was responsible for two catches that went for 85 yards and one touchdown.

Jared Allen (+1.8) played his best game since joining the Panthers; he was credited with three QB hurries.

In his first game as a Panther, Cortland Finnegan (-0.1) was solid.  He played 33 of 64 defensive snaps.

Colin Jones was (-0.4) on 9 snaps.

Graham Gano (+2.9) was once again very good on kickoffs.  Six of his seven kicks went for touchbacks.

Brad Nortman (+1.0) was solid.  He pinned one of his three punts inside the 20.

Signature Stats:

• It’s no secret that Carolina’s receivers have struggled catching the football this year.  Devin Funchess has dropped 6 of 25 catchable balls (24%) and Ted Ginn has dropped 8 of 43 catchable balls (18.6%).  Funchess and Ginn have the second and fourth highest drop rates, respectively, among all NFL receivers.

• Thomas Davis has rushed the passer on 77 of his 500 snaps (15.4%) and generated 16 total pressures, giving him the fifth highest pass rushing productivity rating among all 4-3 OLBs.

[KB_fan]

Excellent film analysis by Mike Craft re: the game winning touchdown from Cam to Cotch.  Very very nice play!

http://www.panthers.com/media-vault/videos/Self-Scout-Newton-finds-Cotchery-in-the-clutch/ff85d48c-624a-4ee6-9f5c-be3c93ac7e33

[KB_fan]

I've had a chance to dig into our Red Zone efficiency stats a little bit.   In particular, it is interesting to note that we already have more Red Zone attempts so far this season with 4 games left to play than we had all of last season.

2014:  46 Red Zone attempts,  22 Touchdowns =  48%

2015 to date (12 games):  49 Red Zone attempts, 32 Touchdowns = 65%

I'll post a graph showing the week by week red zone success for each season later today.

 

[KB_fan]

Here's a simple table showing our red zone success % and ranking ever since Cam arrived.  One can see how the Shula hate accelerated as Red Zone success deteriorated.  Football is a LOT more fun when your team is getting in the Red Zone and scoring TDs!

[KB_fan]

Here are the graphs comparing Red Zone attempts & scores (TDs) for 2014 & 2015 to date (regular season only):

WE HAD 5 GAMES IN 2014 WITH NO SCORES FROM THE RED ZONE (including 1 game where we didn't even get in the red zone.)

In 2014 we had 3 total games with 4 or more red zone attempts.  So far in the 12 games played in 2015, we've already had 7 games with 4 or more red zone attempts.

 

[KB_fan]

Related somewhat to Red Zone scoring, here's a quick look at our total touchdown numbers (regular season only)

2015 (12 games):  38

2014:  33

2013   38

2012:  40

2011:  47