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The Jake INT

mush

By mush,
in Carolina Panthers

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mush Newbie

mush

Posted
Posted

Let's first start this out with stats......do any of you know what % a 4th down and 10 is completed in the NFL?

About 10% of the time.

So with 4th and 10 here is what can happen:

1. Sack and possession ends about 8 yards behind line of scrimmage.

2. Incomplete, possession ends at line of scrimmage.

3. Fumble, end of possession often behind line of scrimmage.

4. interception, end of possession.

Prolly other variables but whatever. By the time we got to that 4th and 10 situation we were 90% chance to fail on the play.

Jake threw the pass within a foot or two of completion to one of the best receivers in the league.

The end result was that Atlanta ended up getting the ball deep in their endzone. Farther back than if we had gotten sacked, an incomplete pass, or had fumbled the ball.

This is no different than when a team launches the ball up 40 yards on 3rd and long and it gets intercepted. 3rd and longs have a long chance of getting converted as well. So that 3rd and long bomb that gets intercepted is the same as us not converting the down and punting it.

That 4th and 10 had a 10% chance of ending well for the Panthers. Given what happened it was the 2nd best option because ATL ended up getting the ball farther back from the line of scrimmage than it would have been if it was an incompletion and change of possession.

but please, carry on with your blaming the game on Jake on a 4th and 10 when the defense knows you're going to pass.

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