Anybody have ESPN Insider?

[Stumpy]

They have an Insider story up about Skinner, just wondering if anybody had read it/wanted to post it for Insiderless mooches like myself?

[Double34Trouble28]

I do.

"Selke Trophy winner Ryan Kesler did it.

Calder Trophy winner Jeff Skinner and fellow finalists Michael Grabner and Logan Couture did, too.

So did Milan Lucic of the Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins, Drew Stafford of the Buffalo Sabres and Nikolai Kulemin of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Each scored more than 30 goals for the first time during the 2010-11 season.

Chances are only one or two of them will repeat those performances this season. So who will it be?

From 2000 to 2010-11, 95 skaters scored 30 goals for the first time in their careers. Their average scoring level was 34 goals while taking three shots per game. In the season after their breakouts (defined as when they score 30 goals for the first time in their career), those 95 skaters averaged only 26 goals on those same three shots per game.

Historically speaking, in the season after their breakouts, scorers will see an average goal-scoring decrease of about 24-30 percent. In fact, only 17 of the 95 improved from their breakout season, with Jarome Iginla leading the way. Iginla had his breakout season during 2000-01 and lit the lamp 52 times the next season, winning the Art Ross (top point scorer), Maurice Richard (top goal scorer) and Ted Lindsay (most outstanding player as selected by the players) awards.

However, 78 players scored fewer goals than they did in their breakout season, with Scott Gomez (13 goals in 72 games in 2006-07) and Scott Hartnell (14 goals in 81 games during the 2009-10 season) being some of the worst of the group.

Do these players worsen? No. They simply regress to the mean.

Shooting percentage is a stat that carries with it a great deal of luck, which is why you hardly see players repeating performances that occur at the extremes. If a skater sees a shooting percentage far above the league average of 9.5 percent -- which has been very consistent from the five seasons before the lockout to the seasons following -- he benefited from more good breaks than bad. As a group, the breaks will even out for those players the next season.

As you can see in the graph to the right of players who broke out during the 2009-10 season, it is hard to follow up with a similar performance the next season.

Getting back to our magnificent seven from last season, we can expect one or two of them to have goal totals equal to or better than their breakout 2010-11 campaigns.

Couture has a good chance of repeating. He finished second on the Sharks to Patrick Marleau in goals and sixth with 56 points to help his team win the Pacific Division for the fourth straight season. His shooting percentage of 12.6 percent is not unusually high for a breakout season, and he did it without the help of Joe Thornton, making him a genuine threat on the second line.

Grabner, whose 14.4 percent shooting percentage this season was highest on the New York Islanders, tallied 34 goals. Six of those came while short-handed, which is a long shot to be duplicated. Grabner would need an increase in power-play time to help offset the difference, and there has been no indication that is forthcoming.

Skinner, last season's best rookie, has a chance, but history is certainly not on his side. Only six NHLers have turned in back-to-back 30-goal seasons as teenagers, and only Sidney Crosby has accomplished it since the lockout.

Kulemin, Lucic and Stafford all had shooting percentages in excess of 17 percent, so they would need to see another season of "puck luck" to make it happen, and the odds are against that.

Kesler was terrific for the Western Conference champion Vancouver Canucks, increasing his goal total by 16 to 41 with 31 assists. Offseason hip surgery to repair his labrum makes him doubtful for Vancouver's regular-season opener, but he has shown he can be a consistent 25-goal scorer in this league. With Malhotra bearing the brunt of the defensive zone pressures, Kesler can turn in a 30-goal season again -- if he's healthy."

And here is the summer skate article about the Canes:

Summer Skate -- Carolina Hurricanes

The Hurricanes have a lot of young talent in the system, as Jim Rutherford once again quietly has done an effective job of creating a competitive team, while restocking the team's farm system. Carolina may have lost Erik Cole, but deciding not to sign a 32-year-old veteran forward to a four-year deal is a good move for the Hurricanes franchise, as Cole plays a rugged style and has had injury troubles in the past. Overall, this offseason didn't result in many splashes; Rutherford wants to continue to let his team grow together and become a force capable of delivering another Stanley Cup to the fans of Raleigh.

Trending Up: D Joni Pitkanen

Last Season: 6.3 GVT | VUKOTA Projection: 7.8 GVT

Pitkanen is expected to anchor the Hurricanes' back-end next season. The big defender has been unappreciated for the majority of his career, but VUKOTA sees a little bit of a boost in the smooth-skating defenseman's production in 2011-12. The Finnish rearguard is turning 28 years old in September and has produced at least 30 points in each of the last three NHL seasons. What makes him a coach's favorite is his ability to log big ice time and not look tired when doing so. With a new three-year, $13.5 million contract in hand, Pitkanen looks as if he will flourish in his fourth season in North Carolina.

Trending Down: D Tomas Kaberle

Last Season: 9.3 GVT | VUKOTA Projection: 7.0 GVT

[+] Enlarge

Kirby Lee/US Presswire

Zac Dalpe could contribute this year for Carolina if he adds a little more muscle.

The 2010-11 season was bittersweet for Kaberle, as the Czech defender won the Stanley Cup but was ridiculed continually by Leafs and Bruins fans. His stay in Boston may not have been memorable in terms of his overall play, but the veteran is one of the best passing defensemen in the NHL, especially out of his zone and in the neutral zone. However, his unwillingness to shoot limits his effectiveness on the power play. Playing in Carolina under Paul Maurice, where Kaberle's brother, Frantisek, flourished, may be helpful to his confidence. Of course VUKOTA is not so optimistic about Kaberle's production this season. -- Pollock

Pronman's name to know: C Zac Dalpe

The Hurricanes probably had one of the better sets of forward prospects in the league on their AHL squad, as Dalpe, Zach Boychuk, Chris Terry and Drayson Bowman performed well for under-22 players in the AHL. I could have told you to keep your eyes on Dalpe or Boychuk for this coming season, but I think Dalpe is just a tad better and his development this year was quite impressive in a season in which he earned AHL All-Rookie honors.

Dalpe is an above-average, fluid skater who can really push the pace due to his speed and work ethic. He isn't a flashy offensive player, but there's no true weakness in his game, as he can be a fine all-around offensive player and his defensive game showed notable improvement this season. The only thing holding him back last season was being a tad physically immature. If he has a good summer and comes to camp with some more muscle, expect him to push for NHL ice time. -- Pronman