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About AU-panther

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  1. Trading up with the Titans

    Personally I would hate to lose our 3 round pick. That pick might be needed to draft a CB like Harlan Miller. Also its going to take a lot more then just the 3rd to move up a substantial amount in the second round. I think we can stay put and still get a player that can help in an area of need. Maybe we don't get Shepard but Braxton Miller or Tyler Boyd is still there. Maybe Shon Coleman, Shalique Calhoun or Cravens is still on the board. Either way I think there is a chance of getting a good player at the end of the 2nd.
  2. 5th year option importance?

    With the draft about to start I thought might be a good idea to look at some of the math behind the 5th year option. At times I think we might be overstating its value. For the sake of this discussion lets look at the 5 yr cost if you we stay put in the draft and select a CB. According to our pick is slotted to earn $6.1m over 4 yrs. The 5th year option for CBs this year is roughly $8m. Picks 1-10 earn more then 11-32. Total 5yr cost would be: 6.1 + 8 = $14.1m Lets look at the same player if we move down 10 spots into the second round. 4yr cost of the 41st pick is roughly $4.2m. Since we drafted this player in the second round there is no 5th year option. In this scenario this player would be in the first year of their second contract. To get a number I decided to look at the average annual value of the 5th highest at their position. in the case of a CB that would be $14m. Total 5yr cost would be: $4.2m + $14.m = $18.2 As you can see the 5th year option saves the team about 4m over the course of the first 5 yrs. Not really the financial windfall some would have you believe. Also by trading down you pick up another pick that could potentially turn into a really cheap starter. The first pick in the 4th round will earn about $2.4m over 4 yrs. Needless to say a starter averaging $600k per year for 4 yrs is a pretty good deal for the team. For a running back the numbers are even worse. 1st round pick is $6.1m for 4 yrs, just like above. 5th year option for RBs is $5.8m Total 5yr cost for a RB took at pick 31: $6.1m + $5.8m = $11.9m If that same player is picked at 41 salary is $4.2m for 4 years. Average annual price of the 5th highest paid RB is $6.4m Total cost of RB picked in second round: $4.2m + $6.4m= $10.6m As you can see in this situation the total savings is only $1.3m This kind of illustrates another reason that RBs don't go in the 1st that often. RBs tend to earn less then most other positions so therefore there isn't as much value in the fixed prices of the rookie wage scale. Either way this is really basic way to look at the two options. There are plenty of variables to factor in. For example if the player you draft turns into the best player in the league at his position the value of the 5th year option goes up. If he turns into just an average starter maybe his value does down. Also a lot of second contracts are structured where the 1st year is a lower cap hit then the later years. Here again there are a lot of variables but with us picking at the end of the 1st round I'm not so sure the 5th year option is as big of a deal as some would have you believe. Also the position you draft influences the value of that 5th year option.
  3. Gettlemens Negotiation with Norman

    He wasn't under contract, what was he going to trade?
  4. Gettleman's 1st round options

    I'm still hoping some team overpays us to trade up in front of the Broncos for a QB. Seems like we have met with a good many players that could be there in the second.
  5. Gettleman's 1st round options

    Option A You can draft 7 players and hope to find3 good ones. Option B You can trade up with some of those picks and draft 4 players and hope to find 3 good ones. With option A you give yourself more chances to be right. With option B you increase your odds with the the chances you do have. Statistically speaking I would guess option A would be better over the long term. Falling in love with certain players is a dangerous habit to get into. Evenifyou are correct on your scouting, which nobody is 100% of the time, you still can't account for injuries. Look at some of the past trading up that this franchise has done. I really don't see DG trading up in the early rounds on a regular basis. I think last year we chased some needs because the board didn't fall like we wanted.
  6. I'm not a huge fan a taking a running back in the first unless it is a AP or Gurly type of talent and I don't think that isthe case with Henry. With that being said I wouldn't be surprised if we did draft him for two reasons. The Giants had success with a similar running back (Jacobs) and the coaches might feel like Henry can take some of the punishment off of Cam in short yardage situations. If we do end up drafting him I hope weat least trade down to do so. I really can't see anyone else drafting him in the first. If we could trade our 1st for a 2nd and 4th we could use that 4th to move our original 2nd up some in the second round. A Henry/Shepard type of combo would be nice. Personally I think after the first 20 or so players the next 20 or so are fairly similar. Would be nice to get 2 of them.
  7. Denver's Cap Space?

    I would guess both numbers are based off of just the top 51.
  8. J-No wants 16 million a year

    And why would Cleveland want to trade their good CB for one that wants more money and is older?
  9. J-No wants 16 million a year

    With the increased cost of the 2nd tag you might as well sign him to a long term deal. Depending on the long term deal is structured your 2 year cost could be close to the same if you decided to cut him after 2 years. So at worst you give yourself the option of having him for extra years if you want. This is why you very rarely see guys get tagged two years in a row.
  10. J-No wants 16 million a year

    For a team to trade for him they would probably want him to agree to a long term deal before the trade. How many teams would be willing to pay Norman what he wants and give up a good draft pick? Probably not many. Also by keeping him for one more year you give whatever rookie you draft time to develop. I'm not saying we shouldn't or wouldn't trade him if the right offer came along but I would be surprised if it did.
  11. J-No wants 16 million a year

    There is probably some truth to this. If you make the argument that he is one of the top 5-6 defensive players in the league then $16m is fair. If you make the argument that he is one of the top 3 corners in the league then $14m is fair. Unfortunately for Josh "fair" really doesn't matter in negotiations.Leverage does. With thefranchise tag the Panthers have the leverage. He can hold out and makezero. or He can sign the tag and earn roughly $14m or He can accept whatever offer the Panthers give him. Even if there were 10 other teams in the league willing to offer Josh that type of money it doesn't matter this year unless they are willing to give uptwo 1st round picks. If Josh wants to play under the tag this year and become an unrestricted free agent next year then he would gain leverage by having offers from other teams. (The chance of a 2nd tag is unlikely) If he has a down year or gets hurthe could ultimately lose money versus taking a long term deal now. What kind of money would Josh get on the open market next year? I have no idea. Would a team offer him a 4yr/$64m? All it takes is one. How much of it is the system? Is he more of a Zone corner? Would other teams value him as much as Revis or Peterson? At what point does his age start to hurt him? I wish the best for Josh in whatever he does. I have no problem with a player trying to maximize their income, but I understand the team has to do what is best for them. The question isn't' "can we afford him?", it is whether or not that is the best use of that cap space, which is a limited resource. You have to decide what the player is worthto your team.
  12. A Josh Norman holdout looming?

    I doubt he really expects top QB kind of money, but I would guess he expects to be paid as one of the topCBs in the league. Based on last year you can make the argument that he deserves something in the range of 5yr/$70m. If the Panthers don't want to go that high then Josh is going to have to decide: Take $14 million this year and try to get paid as one of the top CBs next year. or Take a little less per year now for a long term deal that has more then $14 million guaranteed. If Josh hits the open market next year would there be a team willing to pay him as much or more then what Peterson or Revis make now? Those are the type of questions he and his agent have to ask themselves. I am all for everyone making as much as they can. I think the idea of "hometown discount" is a bit overplayed by a lot of fans. More times then not that is an older player chasing a ring, one that has made a lot already. Usually when you see a player take a little less per yearit is for long term security opposed to a short term deal.
  13. Cj says something brewing

    Why would it affect our comp picks in 2017?
  14. According to Sharper signed a 1yr/$1.2m deal the year before they won the super bowl. If you are going to count him you have to count Coleman and Oher. Charles Woodson signed with the Packers in 2006 and they won the super Bowl in 2011. 2010 was an extension. You could almost view Olsen the same way, just lower per year average. Plaxico signed in 2005 with the Giants and they won thesuper bowl in 2009. Seattle won the SB in 2014. Bennett was on a 1yr/$4.8m deal and Avril was on a 2yr/$13m deal. Neither of which were the mega deals that some would have you believe. While the Revis deal sounded huge at the start it turned out to be a one year rental at $12m. Less then our one yearrental for Hardy or Norman. Same with Browner. One year rental for a lot less then the overall salary made it sound. His one year cost probably wasn't much less then Harper. We spend as much as almost any team. Just so happens alot of our "big money" goes to our own guys. CJ, DWill, Stew, and Kalil were all huge contracts when they were originally signed. Now it is Cam and Luke and Olsen. Inthe future it will be KB, Ealy, Turner, Star, and Short. I'm not saying we won't sign a big time free agent or we shouldn't, but this idea that winning a a Super Bowl is as easy as signing a big time free agent is a bit exaggerated. Also fans always think other teams are doing more then their teams. Patriots sign Revis for one year for $12m and that counts for spending but us signing Hardy for one year for $13m doesn't? New Orleans signs Sharper for $1.2m for one year and that counts as spending but Coleman for 2yrs for $2.8m doesn't? With that being said we are finally to the point that we can spend some if we decide to. What people have to look at is not only our cap space this year, it is also the cap space the nest few years I'm not worried about affording Star and Short. We could sign a few quility free agents this year and still make it work. The following draft class of KB, Ealy, and Short is the one that could make finances tights if we spend too much this year. Can we sign 2 free agents to 5yr/$50m deals this off season without hurting ourselves in the future? probably not 2 free agents making 3yr/$24m? probably Personally I wouldn'tmind us signing a few this year. I don't see the compensatory pick formula working for us that well this year, we really aren't losing anyone who is going to command a large salary. From that perspective it might be a good year to sign some UFAs.
  15. Breaking - Charles Johnson Released

    Sometimes a player has to hit the open market to realize an offer was in line with market prices. or We lowballed him and he can make a lot more elsewhere. Either way it is the business side of football. He played a lot of good football for us over the years. I wish him the best.