86 replies to this topic

[Frizzy350]

In essense..no one disagrees that Williams got an extreme premium for a dual back system HB. You cannot look at post Cam's season to make this judgement or you will easily say this contract is stupid.

After the Clausen season..Williams, is a free agent with significant interest from the Dolphins. Rookie Cam was drafted.

Cam was probally expected to have more a Mark Sanchez year 1 (possibly slightly better) type season than an Arron Rogers yr 1 starter season. A heavy reliance on the run game was expected and having Double Trouble could ease the rookie into year two when he will start to "get it" with a full camp and begining to understand a play call(sarcasam on understanding playcalls)

With the shortened seson, promises to veterans that they "will be taken care of" for their patience on the two years prior bc of the coming lock out..Having veteran Offensive players was at a premium.

Q: what would you say if Cam's season was more like Christian Ponder's and we let Williams go to Miami in free agency?

A: We might be welcoming our new rookie HB Trent Richardson to the Panthers right now.

Cam was Cam and it changed everything to where the HBs were a luxury and lessened the burden while giving Cam a ton of extended reps.

Cam's season makes the DeAngelo contract looked upon as overkill but retaining players on the worst team in the NFL takes some cash. No one wants to be with the ugly girl at the Prom.


IMO, DeAngelo, CJ, Beason, Td's contracts are also impact contracts that give the players on other teams some notice that the Panther's take care of their players to possibly entice some targeted impact free agents in the future.

This is a pretty big deal actually. When was the last time there was a contract dispute or hold out in Carolina? I can't remember (Peppers wasn't a dispute, he flat out did not want to play here). You play for the Panthers, you perform and you make what you deserve. Mike Tolbert is only the beginning, more and more role players are going to be coming to Carolina in the coming years for reduced deals.

[CPF4LIFE]

This is a pretty big deal actually. When was the last time there was a contract dispute or hold out in Carolina? I can't remember (Peppers wasn't a dispute, he flat out did not want to play here). You play for the Panthers, you perform and you make what you deserve. Mike Tolbert is only the beginning, more and more role players are going to be coming to Carolina in the coming years for reduced deals.

Well said.

[CRA]

30 is not the kiss of death... The situation is not black and white, as you're implying...

Emmitt Smith put up over 1200 yards at age 31 and nearly 1000 yards with 9 TDs at age 35...

Ricky Watters put up nearly 1900 total yards (1242 on the ground) at 31...

Curtis Martin rushed for 1700 yards and a dozen TD's at 31...

Check out the stats for pounder John Riggins after 30...

Priest Holmes had a hell of a year at 30...

Other notable post-30 RB successes: Fred Jackson, Fred Taylor, Warrick Dunn, Corey Dillon to name a few...

Now, of course there are many, many examples of RB's that saw STEEP decline after their 30th... But it's not a 'rule'... And the amount of carries DO matter...

As for the miles on DWills tires, he has less than 1000 career carries... All of the RB's I have mentioned had well north of twice as many carries as Williams, and in some cases as many as 4x the number by the same points in their careers...

In regards to which contract is worse, that's certainly debatable based on my perspective vs yours vs everybody elses... It's an unwinnable debate, and certainly subject to perception...

Not the kiss of death...but 30 will always be 30 to a degree. Playing with fire. With Cam and Stewart why play with fire?

And like said look at his college + pro touches vs other RB. Williams had 1000+ in college....most RBs see half or less heading in to the NFL.

Williams is great though...he would be well worth the deal we gave him to LOTS of teams. That is what I don't think so many understand abouty stance....the emphasis on situation

[Mr. Scot]

If you get rid of Double Trouble, the only thing you're left with is Trouble...

Keep in mind that the 'magic number' of 30 is based less on AGE, and more on the MILEAGE that the typical 30 year old RB has on his wheels... In that aspect, DWill is a relatively young 29... It is reasonable to expect that the reduced carries will serve to extend his 'effective' career...

As far as his cap hit, there are so many dynamics that can (and will) change between now and the time it will matter, that debating it now is simply something you do for your own amusement...

Bottom line is simple... If he is contributing at a high level in 3 years, the signing was worth it... If he's not contributing, he will be cut, and cost the team at most (assuming at this point 2 of the 5 years of his signing bonus are done) 9.6M (which also assumes we cut him at the end of this season, which isn't likely to happen)...

I'd actually venture to say that DWill's contract is perhaps not the 'worst' contract the team currently has...

Pretty good analysis.

[NanceUSMC]

Not the kiss of death...but 30 will always be 30 to a degree. Playing with fire. With Cam and Stewart why play with fire?

And like said look at his college + pro touches vs other RB. Williams had 1000+ in college....most RBs see half or less heading in to the NFL.

Playing with fire, I can agree with to an extent...

Some quick comparisons to college carries:

Williams 969 in 4 years

E Smith 700 in 3 years

R Williams 1011 in 4 years

L Tomlinson 907 in 4 years

T Barber 651 in 4 years (but only 16 as a Frosh)

W Dunn 575 in 4 years

F Taylor 537 in 4 years

It's a little tougher to compare the college stats because so many players only played a couple years... Comparatively speaking, yes DWills touches in college were significantly higher in most cases... This would put his total career carries at just under 2000, which is still relatively half of most of the 'success' backs I researched (when taking into account their college touches as well)... Emmitt is sitting north of 5k carries... Walter Payton has nearly 4k touches in the pro's alone, with no post 30 dropoff to speak of...

This has been some interesting research, to say the least... A lot more fail stories than there are success stories, I agree, but fun research all the same...

[CRA]

Playing with fire, I can agree with to an extent...

Some quick comparisons to college carries:

Williams 969 in 4 years

E Smith 700 in 3 years

R Williams 1011 in 4 years

L Tomlinson 907 in 4 years

T Barber 651 in 4 years (but only 16 as a Frosh)

W Dunn 575 in 4 years

F Taylor 537 in 4 years

It's a little tougher to compare the college stats because so many players only played a couple years... Comparatively speaking, yes DWills touches in college were significantly higher in most cases... This would put his total career carries at just under 2000, which is still relatively half of most of the 'success' backs I researched (when taking into account their college touches as well)... Emmitt is sitting north of 5k carries... Walter Payton has nearly 4k touches in the pro's alone, with no post 30 dropoff to speak of...

This has been some interesting research, to say the least... A lot more fail stories than there are success stories, I agree, but fun research all the same...

Missed a key point.

Comparing players old of eras to now is apples and oranges to a degree. Kids played careers in college years ago and don't today.

Williams played a career in college, 1000+ touches (he also had ST touches)

Today, RBs don't....MJD, Stewart, etc all are near half the workload coming into the NFL. RBs don't have the college mileage they did a decade ago

[Frizzy350]

I'm not so sure why people want to break up the greatest backfield in NFL history so badly. You can piss and moan that Stewart is the better back, but that really doesn't change anything.

-I'd argue that DeAngelo is the smoothest and most creative runner in the league. He is extremely lacking in the speed and power department compared to other stud NFL backs and relies entirely on his vision and ability to manipulate would be tacklers. The way he cuts is so smooth and fluid and he doesn't lose momentum. I predicted (this was before we drafted him) he would be a much better NFL player than Reggie Bush simply because when Bush cuts, he comes to a complete stop. Williams' running style is the closest we've ever seen to Barry Sanders.

-Injuries. Runningbacks get clobbered out there, more than any position. They are consistently asked to run into a pile of 9 300+ lb men, and if are lucky they get to run head first at a freaking linebacker. Freak accidents, concussions, twisted ankles - you name it they are at risk. Why not have insurance? Neither stewart or williams have completely injury free careers - both have missed some time here and there. If we decide to part ways with one, and the other goes down in a game then what do we do?

-Stewart and Williams could very well be symbiotic. We've seen hints that stew would be just fine taking the full work load, but only over a few games. Fact is we've never lost either of them for a significant amount of time to see what they do without the other. They work together and play off each other, they are both used in different situations- but yet their differences aren't so cut and dry as the typical powerback/speedback. Stewart is everything you want in a feature back physically- strong as an ox, great breakaway speed and one hell of a stiff arm. Williams is the exact opposite, he doesn't have any of that, but he's got something else and unfortunately that's the one thing that can't be evaluated by combine numbers and workout tapes making it difficult to replace.

-This ain't your grandaddy's running game. Since the arrival of the mad scientist Chud, we finally got a glimpse of both these backs on the field at the same time. When Chud figured it out about halfway through the season our running game was absolutely unstoppable, even better than 2008 and better than when Stu and Dwill both broke 1100 yards (2009?). The standard triple option out of the pistol is an absolute nightmare to defend: we've got stew running right up the middle, Cam passing or taking off with the ball and Williams looking for a pitch. We are putting all of our offensive weapons in their optimal places, forcing the defense to take wild guesses as to where we plan to attack (do you stack the box for stew? play the pass? contain the edge?) yet Cam is still able to take what the defense gives him. We are set up for something special in the running game department, why ruin that now?

[CRA]

I'm not so sure why people want to break up the greatest backfield in NFL history so badly. You can piss and moan that Stewart is the better back, but that really doesn't change anything.

-I'd argue that DeAngelo is the smoothest and most creative runner in the league. He is extremely lacking in the speed and power department compared to other stud NFL backs and relies entirely on his vision and ability to manipulate would be tacklers. The way he cuts is so smooth and fluid and he doesn't lose momentum. I predicted (this was before we drafted him) he would be a much better NFL player than Reggie Bush simply because when Bush cuts, he comes to a complete stop. Williams' running style is the closest we've ever seen to Barry Sanders.

-Injuries. Runningbacks get clobbered out there, more than any position. They are consistently asked to run into a pile of 9 300+ lb men, and if are lucky they get to run head first at a freaking linebacker. Freak accidents, concussions, twisted ankles - you name it they are at risk. Why not have insurance? Neither stewart or williams have completely injury free careers - both have missed some time here and there. If we decide to part ways with one, and the other goes down in a game then what do we do?

-Stewart and Williams could very well be symbiotic. We've seen hints that stew would be just fine taking the full work load, but only over a few games. Fact is we've never lost either of them for a significant amount of time to see what they do without the other. They work together and play off each other, they are both used in different situations- but yet their differences aren't so cut and dry as the typical powerback/speedback. Stewart is everything you want in a feature back physically- strong as an ox, great breakaway speed and one hell of a stiff arm. Williams is the exact opposite, he doesn't have any of that, but he's got something else and unfortunately that's the one thing that can't be evaluated by combine numbers and workout tapes making it difficult to replace.

-This ain't your grandaddy's running game. Since the arrival of the mad scientist Chud, we finally got a glimpse of both these backs on the field at the same time. When Chud figured it out about halfway through the season our running game was absolutely unstoppable, even better than 2008 and better than when Stu and Dwill both broke 1100 yards (2009?). The standard triple option out of the pistol is an absolute nightmare to defend: we've got stew running right up the middle, Cam passing or taking off with the ball and Williams looking for a pitch. We are putting all of our offensive weapons in their optimal places, forcing the defense to take wild guesses as to where we plan to attack (do you stack the box for stew? play the pass? contain the edge?) yet Cam is still able to take what the defense gives him. We are set up for something special in the running game department, why ruin that now?

Double Trouble was a the Fox era.

Time to move forward. Cam era...

We probably ran the triple option and had them on the field together 10 times all season. That is called a gadget play.... not your base offense.

Stewart and Cam running out of the spread option was a basic key to the O....and Williams had nothing to do win the spread option offense that Cam asked Chud for....his option plays were options out of the pistol or traditional sets which were rare

[csx]

I'm not so sure why people want to break up the greatest backfield in NFL history so badly. You can piss and moan that Stewart is the better back, but that really doesn't change anything.

-I'd argue that DeAngelo is the smoothest and most creative runner in the league. He is extremely lacking in the speed and power department compared to other stud NFL backs and relies entirely on his vision and ability to manipulate would be tacklers. The way he cuts is so smooth and fluid and he doesn't lose momentum. I predicted (this was before we drafted him) he would be a much better NFL player than Reggie Bush simply because when Bush cuts, he comes to a complete stop. Williams' running style is the closest we've ever seen to Barry Sanders.

-Injuries. Runningbacks get clobbered out there, more than any position. They are consistently asked to run into a pile of 9 300+ lb men, and if are lucky they get to run head first at a freaking linebacker. Freak accidents, concussions, twisted ankles - you name it they are at risk. Why not have insurance? Neither stewart or williams have completely injury free careers - both have missed some time here and there. If we decide to part ways with one, and the other goes down in a game then what do we do?

-Stewart and Williams could very well be symbiotic. We've seen hints that stew would be just fine taking the full work load, but only over a few games. Fact is we've never lost either of them for a significant amount of time to see what they do without the other. They work together and play off each other, they are both used in different situations- but yet their differences aren't so cut and dry as the typical powerback/speedback. Stewart is everything you want in a feature back physically- strong as an ox, great breakaway speed and one hell of a stiff arm. Williams is the exact opposite, he doesn't have any of that, but he's got something else and unfortunately that's the one thing that can't be evaluated by combine numbers and workout tapes making it difficult to replace.

-This ain't your grandaddy's running game. Since the arrival of the mad scientist Chud, we finally got a glimpse of both these backs on the field at the same time. When Chud figured it out about halfway through the season our running game was absolutely unstoppable, even better than 2008 and better than when Stu and Dwill both broke 1100 yards (2009?). The standard triple option out of the pistol is an absolute nightmare to defend: we've got stew running right up the middle, Cam passing or taking off with the ball and Williams looking for a pitch. We are putting all of our offensive weapons in their optimal places, forcing the defense to take wild guesses as to where we plan to attack (do you stack the box for stew? play the pass? contain the edge?) yet Cam is still able to take what the defense gives him. We are set up for something special in the running game department, why ruin that now?

This is in the running for the biggest homer post I've ever read.

[panther4life]

Very sorry for the terrible op everybody. I was wrong and gladly admit it.

Full breakdown of his contract bonus money (Signing bonus)


21 million dollar signing bonus - 5 million of that in guaranteed salary from his base salary this season.

The cap hit breaks down to 3.2 million per season.

If he was cut now the team would be hit with a massive 17.8 million cap hit.

If he's cut after this season, the cap hit would be 9.6 million (He's due to make 4.75 next season in base, with a cap hit of 7.95)

So the team would lose almost 2 million dollars in cap space by cutting him before next season.


The following season the cap hit moves down to 6.4 Million dollars, his base salary is 5.75 million with a total hit of 8.95 million. The team would save money, but only 2.5 million by cutting him that season.


Now we are down to the final year of his contract and the team would save 6.75 million by cutting him, but would still take a hit of 3.2 million on the season.



So to recap, cutting Williams now = really, really bad.

Cutting Williams next season = pretty bad
Cutting Williams in 2014-2015 = saves the team a small amount of money.
Cutting Williams in 2015-16 = saves the team a fair share of cap room.



Realistically Williams is protected from being cut till at least the 2014-2015 season, but most likely he'll get cut or restructured entering the final year of his deal in the 2015-2016 season.

So this post is on the money, cofirmed by the experts at sportrac and ask the commish's capoligist.

That being said I am still glad we have him on our team.

[TANTRIC-NINJA]

Double Trouble was a the Fox era.

Time to move forward. Cam era...

We probably ran the triple option and had them on the field together 10 times all season. That is called a gadget play.... not your base offense.

Stewart and Cam running out of the spread option was a basic key to the O....and Williams had nothing to do win the spread option offense that Cam asked Chud for....his option plays were options out of the pistol or traditional sets which were rare

I agree somewhat to this arguement based off of last season's results. stewart and Cam was the most effective move the chains offense late in the season. But I do not think it devalues DWills role here in 2012.

IMO Some of the spread option was to ease Cam's transition and I think the result was suprising how most coordinators did not adjust to defending it. The Spread concepts will still be a huge factor but I think it will relied on less and more traditional offensive concepts will be installed. Thus increasing the overall carries for the backs.

I think the fact that Tolbert is here signifies that the burden of run plays will be from the HBs and FBs and less on Cam because

1.) the Team must sustain him for a season and minimize his exposure to big shots
2.) More of Chud's standard offense will be installed
3.) Last season established the "threat" of Cam as a runner and thus will open up other guys as Cam was the No.1 Key in short yardage and Goalline situations. Build off of the established offense from 2011 and play the high percentage plays.

I also think part of last season's offensive play calling had Cam Fling it alot to give him reps in multiple pass situations and coverages with live bullets....Thats why there were a lot of 25 yrd go routes on 3rd and short. Part development, part just rolling the dice for the win from Chud bc he does lust for the big play. Phillip Rivers and SD did that on the regular in short yardage plays for scores.

[CRA]

I think the addition of Tolbert means more of the same.....shotgun and spread option looks. Tolbert despite the FB billing fits perfectly into letting Cam work his spread option and shotgun looks (pass protector and between the tackles running).

Williams fits a more traditional offense with a QB lined up under center.... and a FB leading the way. Yeah, Tolbert could do that.....but Cam is by far the most important player on the field and the offense is being built around him.....not Williams.

We saw a big step in the game geared offense an away from the one Williams would thrive in.....I see no reason why that won't continue. Tolbert IMO is here to pass protect, recieve....and goaline. Blocking for Williams some just bc Carolina simply is forced to get Williams touches but the shift already started

[Frizzy350]

Double Trouble was a the Fox era.

Time to move forward. Cam era...

We probably ran the triple option and had them on the field together 10 times all season. That is called a gadget play.... not your base offense.

Stewart and Cam running out of the spread option was a basic key to the O....and Williams had nothing to do win the spread option offense that Cam asked Chud for....his option plays were options out of the pistol or traditional sets which were rare

Yes the triple option itself was only ran maybe 10 times the season and in itself is a gadget play, but you forget that a standard running play or pass play was often ran out of that formation. Defenses have to account for the option when in that formation, whether we run it or not. What makes you think Cam asked chud to run the spread?

[Frizzy350]

This is in the running for the biggest homer post I've ever read.

Claiming Stewart and Williams may not be able to run effectively on their own and making note that either can get injured is homerism?

[Mr. Scot]

Alvin Harper syndrome.

Guy who looks great as part of a tandem suddenly gets a solo gig, and promptly tanks. Happens a lot.

The Panthers, for the record, seem very happy with the idea of a tandem backfield and, with the addition of Mike Tolbert, even seem to be looking forward to a triple threat like the Giants had a few years back.