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True or False?


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#16 Epistaxis

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Posted 26 May 2009 - 11:35 AM

Another thing I find fascinating is the impending conflict between "green" and emerging nations.

Organic methods for farming are NOT gonna cut it.
And I don't know about you, but I'm personally not comfortable with telling emerging nations to "knock it off" after we got to enjoy the party and worry about the cleanup later.

The limited potential for land expansion for cultivation—only 17% of cultivable land produces 90% of the world's food crops[35]—worries Borlaug, who, in March 2005, stated that, "we will have to double the world food supply by 2050." With 85% of future growth in food production having to come from lands already in use, he recommends a multidisciplinary research focus to further increase yields, mainly through increased crop immunity to large-scale diseases, such as the rust fungus, which affects all cereals but rice. His dream is to "transfer rice immunity to cereals such as wheat, maize, sorghum and barley, and transfer bread-wheat proteins (gliadin and glutenin) to other cereals, especially rice and maize".[35]

According to Borlaug, "Africa, the former Soviet republics, and the cerrado are the last frontiers. After they are in use, the world will have no additional sizable blocks of arable land left to put into production, unless you are willing to level whole forests, which you should not do. So, future food-production increases will have to come from higher yields. And though I have no doubt yields will keep going up, whether they can go up enough to feed the population monster is another matter. Unless progress with agricultural yields remains very strong, the next century will experience sheer human misery that, on a numerical scale, will exceed the worst of everything that has come before".[21]

Besides increasing the worldwide food supply, Borlaug has repeatedly stated that taking steps to decrease the rate of population growth will also be necessary to prevent food shortages. In his Nobel Lecture of 1970, Borlaug stated, "Most people still fail to comprehend the magnitude and menace of the 'Population Monster'...If it continues to increase at the estimated present rate of two percent a year, the world population will reach 6.5 billion by the year 2000. Currently, with each second, or tick of the clock, about 2.2 additional people are added to the world population. The rhythm of increase will accelerate to 2.7, 3.3, and 4.0 for each tick of the clock by 1980, 1990, and 2000, respectively, unless man becomes more realistic and preoccupied about this impending doom. The tick-tock of the clock will continually grow louder and more menacing each decade. Where will it all end?"[22]

"It is a sad fact that on this earth at this late date there are still two worlds, "the privileged world" and "the forgotten world". The privileged world consists of the affluent, developed nations, comprising twenty-five to thirty percent of the world population, in which most of the people live in a luxury never before experienced by man outside the Garden of Eden. The forgotten world is made up primarily of the developing nations, where most of the people, comprising more than fifty percent of the total world population, live in poverty, with hunger as a constant companion and fear of famine a continual menace."
From his 1970 Nobel Lecture
"I now say that the world has the technology – either available or well advanced in the research pipeline – to feed on a sustainable basis a population of 10 billion people. The more pertinent question today is whether farmers and ranchers will be permitted to use this new technology? While the affluent nations can certainly afford to adopt ultra low-risk positions, and pay more for food produced by the so-called “organic” methods, the one billion chronically undernourished people of the low income, food-deficit nations cannot."
30th Anniversary Lecture, The Norwegian Nobel Institute, Oslo, September 8, 2000

When Norman Borlaug talks about this issue, I listen.

http://en.wikipedia....and_food_supply

#17 Htar

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Posted 26 May 2009 - 11:42 AM

I don't know, but I think the entire population of the world occupies only 5% of the land mass....There's plenty of room to grow...The problem is, that the population clusters in and around urban centers.

#18 Jase

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Posted 26 May 2009 - 11:46 AM

You take the sahara desert and I'll take siberia.... we'll live like kings with all that land to ourselves.

Land doesn't matter. Availability and access to arable land, fresh water, and oil are the most important.

Edited by Jase, 26 May 2009 - 11:49 AM.


#19 Kyle82

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Posted 26 May 2009 - 11:54 AM

Nature has funny ways of dealing with overpopulation.


There is alot of truth in that...plagues, tsunamis, diseases and other natural disasters. Kind of creepy.

#20 Epistaxis

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Posted 26 May 2009 - 12:48 PM

You take the sahara desert and I'll take siberia.... we'll live like kings with all that land to ourselves.

Land doesn't matter. Availability and access to arable land, fresh water, and oil are the most important.



Exactly.

Population centers exist in the places they exist for a reason.
It is all well and good to say "look at all this land".
It is quite another to
1) Grow anything on it.
2) Provide the transpo to get what is needed there. Island economies are a great example. Wonder why sh*t costs so much in Hawaii and Bermuda?

Another excellent point you raise is petroleum access. I take it a step simpler. People often forget how current food production is SO dependant on petroleum at so many different levels. The fertilizers, the insecticides. Production, harvest, delivery.

I guess you know where I stand on the OP. ;)


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