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Overlooked stat for Cam


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#136 panthers55

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Posted 14 December 2012 - 10:35 PM

Ugh Richard, you're showing your asinine propensity for cherry picking stats again.

"Look guys, air yards!!!" this disproves that their passing schemes are different!!"

Well, no, not really.

Cam's Air Yards are 1663, but on only 227 completions, or about 7.32 air yards/completion

Dalton's Air yards are 1637 but on 295 completions (almost 70 more), or about 5.5 air yards/completion.

Your ass is showing, Richard. Go away.

I didn't have to read beyond the comment that the Air Coryell system is a type of West Coast offense. That was enough to convince me that he has just enough knowledge to be dangerous. He might be able to convince the casual fan that he is correct, because on the surface they have similarities but the serious fan knows the philosophical differences that are exacerbated by the fact that we run a spread option with an emphasis on running as well as passing.

For thoughts on how they differ:

http://www.49erswebz...coast-offenses/

http://logicaloptimi...st-and-air.html

http://www.ninersnat...s-at-the-age-of

#137 panthers55

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Posted 14 December 2012 - 11:05 PM

It must be nice to make up your own rules and definitions....the rest of us have to deal with real world facts...like for example the fact our version of AC is just a glorified college spread option whereas Dan Fouts always played from under center. He was never in the shotgun. The man couldn't run. There was no 1 man advantage. No defensive player had to be committed to his rushing ability.

Our offense is based on it but we are not running the AC offense. fug we are running plays straight out of Auburn's playbook! We have a dual rush QB, and incorporate read option plays on just about every play which makes it easier to complete passes when defenses can't really tell you are about to run or pass, have to commit 1 extra defender to your QB, which often leaves unaccounted receivers wide open, and more man to man coverages for Cam to take advantage of or makes it really easy to dump the ball off. We were 5th in yards after catch last year, and our #1 receiver in yards after catch was our running back!

Our offense is no different than your typical college spread offense, which other dual rush QB's are using and again....there's a reason why guys like Russel Wilson and RG3 are completing passes at 63% and 70%...and it's not because the spread option is harder than a pro style WCO.

But I get what this is. Dalton has a higher completion % so the only explanation is that Cam's offense must be harder to complete passes, am I right? Typical Cam Newton nuthugger mentality. Let Drew Brees know that Russel Wilson's a better passer than him, will you?


Honestly, are you really beleiving what you are saying or is this your attempt to establish an incorrect position which you then defend bending the facts to suit your purpose so you can win the argument even when you know you are wrong. Or do you expect fans here to accept your half truths an distortions of the facts. For example both RGIII and Russell Wilson are West Coast offenses that mix in some spread concepts whereas the Panthers use a spread offense mixing in Coryell concepts. We pass using a North-South passing approach heavily utilizing the TE on the deep outs and in the seams and wide receiver on deep routes over the middle and down the sidelines. Wilson, RGIII and Dalton throw East-West and short underneath crossing routes and slants hoping for yards after the catch. Dalton has a higher completion percentage because he throws shorter easier to complete passes. Last night I saw a half dozen shovel passes which are extended handoffs and sure to increase the completion percentage. And the idea that he had more 30 yard completions is a red herring as well unless the stat can differentiate between passes that are thrown 30 yards down the field and caught as the receiver goes out of bounds snagging a beautifully thrown deep ball versus a pass thrown 10 yards down the field with the receiver rambling down the field for another 25 yards. Both go down as long completions but the differences are as obvious as the styles and approaches used by Newton and Dalton. BTW- for much of the season Newton wasn't playing like a franchise quarterback either. The difference is that Newton has a much higher ceiling than Dalton as evidenced by his play the past few weeks versus Dalton who is more of a manager than a game changer. He can make plays but makes mistakes as well. He doesn't throw a ton of picks because he is too timid to gun the ball in there knowing his limitations. And the list goes on. Feel free to continue to argue but come back with more than just numbers based on faulty or limited assumptions which are easily refuted.

#138 Frash Brastard

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Posted 14 December 2012 - 11:43 PM

Wow whoever this ReturnOfPFFL guy is he really says a lot of nothing/needs to lose some weight

#139 Gabeking

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Posted 14 December 2012 - 11:46 PM

Wow whoever this ReturnOfPFFL guy is he really says a lot of nothing/needs to lose some weight


Well, there's one thing that's certain....

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#140 Chimera

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 12:31 AM

Particle board dining table.

#141 ReturnOfPFFL

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 02:17 AM

Honestly, are you really beleiving what you are saying or is this your attempt to establish an incorrect position which you then defend bending the facts to suit your purpose so you can win the argument even when you know you are wrong. Or do you expect fans here to accept your half truths an distortions of the facts. For example both RGIII and Russell Wilson are West Coast offenses that mix in some spread concepts whereas the Panthers use a spread offense mixing in Coryell concepts. We pass using a North-South passing approach heavily utilizing the TE on the deep outs and in the seams and wide receiver on deep routes over the middle and down the sidelines. Wilson, RGIII and Dalton throw East-West and short underneath crossing routes and slants hoping for yards after the catch. Dalton has a higher completion percentage because he throws shorter easier to complete passes. Last night I saw a half dozen shovel passes which are extended handoffs and sure to increase the completion percentage. And the idea that he had more 30 yard completions is a red herring as well unless the stat candifferentiate between passes that are thrown 30 yards down the field and caught as the receiver goes out of bounds snagging a beautifully thrown deep ball versus a pass thrown 10 yards down the field with the receiver rambling down the field for another 25 yards. Both go down as long completions but the differences are as obvious as the styles and approaches used by Newton and Dalton. BTW- for much of the season Newton wasn't playing like a franchise quarterback either. The difference is that Newton has a much higher ceiling than Dalton as evidenced by his play the past few weeks versus Dalton who is more of a manager than a game changer. He can make plays but makes mistakes as well. He doesn't throw a ton of picks because he is too timid to gun the ball in there knowing his limitations. And the list goes on. Feel free to continue to argue but come back with more than just numbers based on faulty or limited assumptions which are easily refuted.


Dalton has a higher percentage because he has been more accurate. It really is as simple as that. And anyone that looks at the two offenses, would not agree that a primarily spread option offense is more difficult than a pro style WCO. .

The idea that Cam is completing at a lower percentage because he is running a harder offense is simply asinine. It's just not true. Any offense that is dominated by the college spread option with a dual rush QB in the NFL, is easier in the passing game department because of all the advantages it gives you over defenses. The WCO, which has been defended for years, is the hardest and most difficult NFL offense to master save for the Patriots WCO variation and Peyton Manning's offense which are pretty unique.

If completing passes in the NFL was simply about distance things would be a breeze. One of the most complex and difficult offenses to run is the Patriots offense, and they don't throw it deep. It requires one of the most precise quarterbacks in the NFL. Similarly the WCO is about precision. timing, route adjustment, touch, vision and receiver communication. You are throwing in traffic.

Throwing a ball over the defenses 30 yards out to a receiver who beat his man, is really not harder than throwing a pass 15 yards out through traffing, through a very tight window, timing it precisely and hitting your receiver in stride in order to put him in position to gain yards after catch.

You're right that there is a difference between a pass through the air and one on the ground that goes for yards after catch. But overall, it's not Dalton that has more yards after catch. It's us. Your argument breaks down when you claim Dalton is getting this benefit because as I stated before we were 5th in the NFL last year in yards after catch. Johnathan Stewart was our #1 receiver in yards after catch. That is our running back, which is pretty typical of your college offense. There really is nothing easier than a dump off to your RB on a screen pass which we used quite often.

And this year:

Newton- 6.85 yards after catch. per completion.
Dalton - 5.25 yards after catch per completion.

Again, the numbers don't back up your claim.

And there's nothing that can possibly measure which quarterback has a higher ceiling. Nobody knows this.

#142 rayzor

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 08:57 AM

I didn't have to read beyond the comment that the Air Coryell system is a type of West Coast offense. That was enough to convince me that he has just enough knowledge to be dangerous. He might be able to convince the casual fan that he is correct, because on the surface they have similarities but the serious fan knows the philosophical differences that are exacerbated by the fact that we run a spread option with an emphasis on running as well as passing.

For thoughts on how they differ:

http://www.49erswebz...coast-offenses/

http://logicaloptimi...st-and-air.html

http://www.ninersnat...s-at-the-age-of

but....but...they were both called the west coast offense.


lol

#143 rayzor

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 09:00 AM

Honestly, are you really beleiving what you are saying or is this your attempt to establish an incorrect position which you then defend bending the facts to suit your purpose so you can win the argument even when you know you are wrong. Or do you expect fans here to accept your half truths an distortions of the facts.

For example both RGIII and Russell Wilson are West Coast offenses that mix in some spread concepts whereas the Panthers use a spread offense mixing in Coryell concepts. We pass using a North-South passing approach heavily utilizing the TE on the deep outs and in the seams and wide receiver on deep routes over the middle and down the sidelines. Wilson, RGIII and Dalton throw East-West and short underneath crossing routes and slants hoping for yards after the catch.

Dalton has a higher completion percentage because he throws shorter easier to complete passes. Last night I saw a half dozen shovel passes which are extended handoffs and sure to increase the completion percentage.

And the idea that he had more 30 yard completions is a red herring as well unless the stat can differentiate between passes that are thrown 30 yards down the field and caught as the receiver goes out of bounds snagging a beautifully thrown deep ball versus a pass thrown 10 yards down the field with the receiver rambling down the field for another 25 yards. Both go down as long completions but the differences are as obvious as the styles and approaches used by Newton and Dalton.

BTW- for much of the season Newton wasn't playing like a franchise quarterback either. The difference is that Newton has a much higher ceiling than Dalton as evidenced by his play the past few weeks versus Dalton who is more of a manager than a game changer. He can make plays but makes mistakes as well. He doesn't throw a ton of picks because he is too timid to gun the ball in there knowing his limitations. And the list goes on. Feel free to continue to argue but come back with more than just numbers based on faulty or limited assumptions which are easily refuted.

well said.

#144 teeray

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 09:15 AM

I didn't have to read beyond the comment that the Air Coryell system is a type of West Coast offense. That was enough to convince me that he has just enough knowledge to be dangerous. He might be able to convince the casual fan that he is correct, because on the surface they have similarities but the serious fan knows the philosophical differences that are exacerbated by the fact that we run a spread option with an emphasis on running as well as passing.

For thoughts on how they differ:

http://www.49erswebz...coast-offenses/

http://logicaloptimi...st-and-air.html

http://www.ninersnat...s-at-the-age-of


I was literally thinking the other day "where has P55 been?" Glad you are back.

#145 teeray

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 09:34 AM

And there's nothing that can possibly measure which quarterback has a higher ceiling. Nobody knows this.


Yes you can if you know what you are talking about. Which is probably is why you believe you can't.

#146 ReturnOfPFFL

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 11:10 AM

but....but...they were both called the west coast offense.


lol



They are different, and yet both were referred to as the WCO, which is what I said.

You ever realize you laugh like an idiot and often you set the bar?

It always amuses me how some can be wrong on the major points and look for any small technicality to hang on to as some sort of validation.

#147 rayzor

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 11:15 AM

This post is hidden because you have chosen to ignore posts by ReturnOfPFFL. View it anyway?

no.

#148 ReturnOfPFFL

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 11:19 AM

Funny enough that couldn't have been a more correct answer.

#149 panthers55

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 09:07 PM

Dalton has a higher percentage because he has been more accurate. It really is as simple as that. And anyone that looks at the two offenses, would not agree that a primarily spread option offense is more difficult than a pro style WCO. .

The idea that Cam is completing at a lower percentage because he is running a harder offense is simply asinine. It's just not true. Any offense that is dominated by the college spread option with a dual rush QB in the NFL, is easier in the passing game department because of all the advantages it gives you over defenses. The WCO, which has been defended for years, is the hardest and most difficult NFL offense to master save for the Patriots WCO variation and Peyton Manning's offense which are pretty unique.

If completing passes in the NFL was simply about distance things would be a breeze. One of the most complex and difficult offenses to run is the Patriots offense, and they don't throw it deep. It requires one of the most precise quarterbacks in the NFL. Similarly the WCO is about precision. timing, route adjustment, touch, vision and receiver communication. You are throwing in traffic.

Throwing a ball over the defenses 30 yards out to a receiver who beat his man, is really not harder than throwing a pass 15 yards out through traffing, through a very tight window, timing it precisely and hitting your receiver in stride in order to put him in position to gain yards after catch.

You're right that there is a difference between a pass through the air and one on the ground that goes for yards after catch. But overall, it's not Dalton that has more yards after catch. It's us. Your argument breaks down when you claim Dalton is getting this benefit because as I stated before we were 5th in the NFL last year in yards after catch. Johnathan Stewart was our #1 receiver in yards after catch. That is our running back, which is pretty typical of your college offense. There really is nothing easier than a dump off to your RB on a screen pass which we used quite often.

And this year:

Newton- 6.85 yards after catch. per completion.
Dalton - 5.25 yards after catch per completion.

Again, the numbers don't back up your claim.

And there's nothing that can possibly measure which quarterback has a higher ceiling. Nobody knows this.


Th problem with you is that you will argue forever making obvious statements which are usually only tangentially related to the topic. For example saying that Dalton is more accurate than Newton is correct if you look at completion percentage. But that argument ignores the fact that across the board WCOs are going to produce higher completion percentages compared to our system for example if all you considered was how many shovel passes and dumpoffs that Dalton has thrown compared to how many handoffs and pitches Newton has made which aren't credited as passes because of the style of offense we run. It is likely that Dalton threw more screens and dump offs than Newton given that Cincinnati threw 66 more passes while throwing fewer deeper balls. But more on that later...

Who said that Newton was running a harder offense? They are different offenses for quarterbacks with different skills and abilities. You make these red herring arguments as if they are the point of the discussion. The issue of which type of pass is harder to make really ignores the fact that Dalton can't throw the deep out with any accuracy. Green makes him look better than he is when he snags a wounded duck out of the air and makes Dalton look like a hero. The reason that Newton is a potential franchise quarterback really rests on his ability to make all the throws and run and elude tacklers so well that he can pressure a defense with his feet and arm. Dalton in his system can be very effective and manage a game much like Jake did for us over the years. Dalton just doesn't seem to be dynamic and a game changer.

When you reported the yards after the catch per completion argument you seemed to omit the critical part which is comparing them based on the number of completions which is a difference of 66 passes. They are within 20 yards of one another in total yards after the catch which for Dalton using your numbers of 5.25 yards after the completion times 296 completons reveals a total of 1554 yards versus Newton who has 6.85 yards ATC times 230 completions or 1575 yards. I suspect the higher average for us is partly due to the routes we throw (seams versus slants for example) and the fact that we passed fewer times. Because we are more of a North South throwing team we concentrate on throwing over the defense instead of throwing under the defense like Dalton. So we could have the same number of big plays with a similar amount of total yards but our average would be higher as a function of completions because we threw the ball fewer times. It likely means we are just more explosive as a function of completions. What it wouldn't mean is that Dalton threw the ball further down the field or had more deep passes. If you figure YAC is equal and look at a more appropriate stat such as the number of 20 yard passes as a function of completions it isn't even close. Newton has completed 48 passes over 20 yards out of a total of 230 completions or 21% of all passes versus Dalton has thrown 33 out of a total of 296 or 11% of all passes. Almost a 2-1 difference. But what would you expect? Dalton plays in an East/West horizontal system with emphasizes short dink and dunk passes down the field. If you compare them on 40 yard passes as a function of completions they are essentially the same: Newton is 10 of 230 (4.4%) versus Dalton who is 13 of 296 or 4.4%.
When you look at how most of Dalton's long completions are going to Green who bails out Dalton on a regular basis, you wonder why Dalton's numbers aren't much better than they are.

The issue here is your numbers aren't germane to the argument and the facts as you describe them are only tangentially related to the real issue. Dalton is good in his system but has distinct limitations. Newton could play in any of the major systems. They are just 2 very different quarterbacks and everyone can think as they like. Just don't waste my time trying to convince me that Newton doesn't have a higher ceiling than Dalton. Anyone who has watched them knows the answer to that outside of Cincinnati or contrarians like you who troll the board looking for an argument.

#150 Jackofalltrades

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 09:16 PM

P55 you should disclose your professional background.


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