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CPantherKing

Member Since 07 Oct 2012
Online Last Active Today, 02:21 AM
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#3030522 changes need to come

Posted by CPantherKing on 19 October 2014 - 03:50 PM

Harper needs to go now. He is doing nothing, but wasting space and giving opposing offense a huge piece of the field to use.




#3026829 Ramifications for Hardy

Posted by CPantherKing on 19 October 2014 - 11:30 AM

not only has he not been charged, but apparently one BIG reason why things are quiet is because there is the appearance of some sheisty shenanigans going on behind the scenes of the san jose police department.

 

This is where the legal systems come in to play.

 

Ray McDonald arrested for FELONY domestic violence on the spot. In California, the DA can wait 3 years to bring charges in the arraignment phase.

 

Greg Hardy turned himself in the following morning for MISDEMEANOR domestic violence. In North Carolina, there is no arraignment and charges are placed on an individual within the first 48 hours. Not even the DA can remove the initial charges until the process has concluded in the courts.

 

Two different ways states handle due process. One stands behind due process with a libertarian legal system in California and will not charge you until investigations have been conducted, and North Carolina is more totalitarian with their legal system where you are placed in a position of proving your innocence within the first 48 hours. The classic argument of liberty versus security.

 

If Hardy were in California, he to would be playing at this very moment as the State of California supports each person's right to due process. In North Carolina, he would need people and his organization to stand behind his right to due process for him to keep playing.

 

I believe it is a sad state when you have to rely on an innocent verdict to continue a persons right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.




#3025934 Inside the Panthers Run D

Posted by CPantherKing on 18 October 2014 - 02:01 PM

People are already writing off the Panthers run defense. What has changed? Was Greg Hardy that important to the run defense from a defensive end position? The answer is no. The run defense is the same. Greg Hardy would have been on the other side of the field or in the backfield with the opposing teams offensive tackle on the runs that have gashed the Panthers defense up the middle to start this season.
 
It is time for some new hope with the Panthers run defense, and I am here to deliver that to anyone who sees dark days ahead for the Panthers defense. Instead, I am offering you a run defense that will be trending upward for the remainder of the season.
 
Consider the following:
 
The Panthers defense has given up 4 runs totaling 274 yards this season, which skews the statistics for total rushing yards. Those 4 runs are the difference between a 29th ranked run defense and a top 10 run defense.
 
Interesting note is that the Panthers defense has given up 15 runs for 20+ yards in 2013 and 2014 (22 games). 67% of those runs came against AFC Teams. Panthers have played AFC Teams in 7 of 22 games (32%).
 
Are you seeing a pattern?
 
Let's put an exclamation point on the run defenses problem that everyone is so fired up about.
 
The Panthers have given up 100+ rushing yards to 9 of 22 teams. The top 7 worst rushing defensive performances for the Panthers are:
 
1. Steelers
2. Bengals
3. Jets
4. Bills
5. Ravens
6. Saints
7. Patriots
 
AFC Teams run for 100+ yards on the Panthers defense 86% of the time (NFC 20%).
 
Panthers run defense has given up 2232 yards and 10 TDs in 22 games. AFC teams have accounted for 1049 yards and 8 TDs in 7 games. That is 47% of the rushing yardage and 80% of the rushing TDs in 32% of the games.
 
Seems to me the defense is not as prepared for the running games of AFC teams. They are likely putting a majority of their planning and preparation time into division and conference opponents in the off-season/preseason.
 
There is one glaring weakness in the Panthers run defense that they must fix immediately, and I expect to see more teams aim for this weakness. The Panthers give up a majority of their rushing yardage on big runs when they have an opposing team near their own red zone. The opposing offense will go heavy on one side (typically to the left). The play is a weak side counter/scissor play. They get the Panthers defense to slide the DL to the strong side and then slant to the strong side gaps. This places the weak side DT over the center and responsible for the strong side A gap. The weak side LB is now responsible for the weak side A gap and the safety is now set up for the weak side B gap. The DE contains the C gap. If both OGs are allowed a free release to the second level and get 6 yards deep on the weak side LB, then the RB has 3 angles of attack with only 2 defenders within 5 yards of the RB. Ron Rivera must address and correct this issue to stop the big runs with the opposing offense up against their own goal line.
 
CJ Spiller did this to the Panthers defense at the start of the 2013 season. LeGarrette Blount did this to the Panthers with the Patriots in 2013 and the Steelers in 2014. The Buccaneers fullback did this to the Panthers to start the 2014 season. Giovanni Bernard hammered this issue home last Sunday. The time has come to stop this from being a point of attack for other offenses with a long field staring them in the face.
 
Goodbye AFC teams! With 9 NFC teams remaining (5 divisional), I would lean toward fans seeing a much stronger run defense for the remainder of the season. A run defense that will remind us that the Panthers still have one of the stronger run defenses in the NFL.
 
A new hope for all Panthers fans!



#3023119 I was watching Mike & Mike this morning and Greeny said the NFCS

Posted by CPantherKing on 15 October 2014 - 10:43 PM

But bro! That tie is totally gonna help! You'll see!

**Panthers sweep Saints**

Saints- 10-6
Panthers- 9-5-1

**Panthers still miss playoffs**

 

Well if the Panthers sweep the Saints, the Saints can only lose to 1 other team for the rest of the season in order to finish 10-6.

 

Lions, Packers, 49ers, Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, and Bears. If they finish 6-1 against those teams and the Panthers can only muster 9 wins, then the Saints deserve to get into the playoffs. If they lose to 2 of those teams, then they have no shot assuming the Panthers finish 9-6-1 with 2 of those wins against the Saints.




#3020742 Does Cam put the ball in spots where KB gets slaughtered?

Posted by CPantherKing on 14 October 2014 - 12:27 PM

Every time I watch KB get a catch I cringe because it looks like a full on assault on him... Is it ball placement or is it that he is just so big that defenders have a larger area to strike at?


That is because the secondary splits Olsen and Benjamin with their zone coverage. They have at least 3 defenders gunning for him every pass play when he goes inside the CB. They will launch themselves into KB any chance they get. Even if they are several steps off like his TD Sunday.

Most WRs would draw a penalty for being defenseless. KB is so big and strong that refs do not see the smaller DB or LB as committing a harsh penalty.

The one penalty KB did draw for being defenseless took the ref some time to call. A smaller receiver gets that call instantly.

Cam Newton deals with the same garbage no calls because of his strength and size.

KB and Cam are hard to bring down and they will not go down on first contact like others. Seems the NFL has different standards in their officiating.


#3017722 "Ron Rivera and the Panthers wasted a brilliant performance by Cam" -...

Posted by CPantherKing on 12 October 2014 - 09:08 PM

The defense and dropped passes lost the game oh and the wind and gano

 

The Panthers were in a position at 4th and 1 at the 18 where they had a 90% chance of winning the game.

 

Rivera traded that in for a FG attempt with a 60% chance of a tie. And a defensive stand that had a 64% chance of a tie at best.

 

The head coach is responsible for putting the players in a position to win. Not taking them out of a position to win.

 

Rivera chose more risk and less reward. That is as bad as a player fumbling the ball or throwing a pass into triple coverage for an interception.




#3017624 Really? Fire rivera?

Posted by CPantherKing on 12 October 2014 - 08:39 PM

How. Do you figure? Cam has run it on 4th and 1 before and not gotten it.

 

A large part of my career revolves around predictive analytics and applied behavior analysis.

 

This is essentially the same responsibility of a head football coach with a platform of athletics.

 

Let me preface the following by saying if I were to ever go into a situation impacting the business I work for without knowing the key patterns, goals, and outcomes in critical situations, then I would expect to be terminated in the very near future.

 

A head coach has it much easier than I do. I deal with many more variables on a day to day basis. A head coach has a platform with definite controls to operate on (100 yard field, 60 minute games, 15 minute OT, shared possessions, 22 individuals at any give moment to pattern.) I am not going to get too technical. So, it is very simple for a head coach to understand a given situation. If they cannot master this, then hire an assistant who can.

 

Rivera should have known the following (he gets paid a whole lot more than I do and needs to earn it), and anyone speaking to this should read the following before giving their opinion.

 

Cam and the Panthers offense:

 

(88.9%) Cam is 8/9 in his career on 4th and 2 or less. The 1 miss try being a fumble.

 

(63.6%) Cam is 7/11 passing the ball on 4th and 2 or less.

 

(92.9%) Panthers as a team since 2011 are 13/14 running the ball for a first down on 4th and 2 or less. (#1 in the NFL)

 

 

The Panthers Defense under Rivera/McDermott:

(preventing scores on drives in the last 5 minutes of the game and OT)

 

(63.6%) 14/22 since 2011.

 

(75.0%) 9/12 since 2013.

 

(71.4%) 5/7 in 2014.

 

* The defense has been poor with a 59.4% success rate of preventing scores in the 2014 season. 

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The NFL over the past 5 seasons:

 

- converts 65.7% of 4th and 2 or less with the run.

 

- 76.8% defensive success rate in preventing a score in the final 5 minutes of a game.

 

- 63.6% defensive success rate in preventing a score in OT.

 

 

So, this tells me Rivera does not understand the strengths and weaknesses of his team. If Rivera were to have a typical QB/average short yardage offense, then he should choose to go for it on 4th down if his offense is performing better than his defense on the day. If the defense is performing better, then you put it in the hands of your defense.

 

However, when you have Cam Newton as your QB, your best probability of success is running the ball for a first down. If they run the ball, they have approximately a 10% chance of losing the game.

 

Based on the past 5 seasons, if a team places their defense on the field to stop a scoring drive in OT, that team has a 36.4% chance of allowing a score and losing the game.

 

If a defense allows a FG attempt of 36+ yards in OT (the Bengals FG attempt), that team has a 72% chance of losing.

 

Ron Rivera made the wrong call. No question. He started with a 90% chance of winning the game at 4th and 2. Took a FG attempt with a 60% chance of a tie. Played defense with a 63.6% chance of a tie game. Ended with defending a FG attempt with a 28% chance of a tie game. He lead the team toward defeat. He had a 90% chance of winning the game. He gave it up. He traded less risk and more reward for more risk and less reward.

 

Anyone making play calls on the pro level needs to have this mastered, or they should be replaced with someone who does in my opinion. If they can't master this, then they need an assistant in their pocket who does.

 

There was no Riverboat Ron, and there was no Analytics Ron. There was a Blind Gut Feeling Ron who cost the Panthers the win. His one job is to put the players in the best situation to win the game. He failed today. 




#3016078 Really? Fire rivera?

Posted by CPantherKing on 12 October 2014 - 04:23 PM

If Rivera should be fired for anything it should be for this swiss cheese defense.... how do we go from top 3 last year to bottom of the barrel.

 

Losing Greg Hardy. No pressure from the DEs.

 

You need the DE pressure to cover the DBs.

 

You must have strong LBs, then you need a strong secondary or a strong pass rushing DE. You cannot have a weak secondary and weak pass rushing DEs.




#3007727 J.J. Watt or Luke Kuechly

Posted by CPantherKing on 09 October 2014 - 06:08 PM

No question you take Luke.

 

Luke is the QB of the defense. Watt just does what he is told.

 

Watt did will not consistently garner more than 10 sacks per season. He is on pace for 6-8 sacks this season. He had one strong season. He could not turn around a sorry defense last season, because of the position he plays.

 

Luke is more of a factor in a defense. Add Luke to the Texans defense last season and they would win more games.

 

I take the players who is more of a factor and can lead an entire unit.

 

Would you take Calvin Johnson over Peyton Manning or Tom Brady? Calvin Johnson may be more of an athletic freak and win his one on ones a lot, but he is not as big a factor as Manning or Brady.

 

If everything were the same on a defense: You take Watt to build the defense around and you lose games. You take Luke to build the defense around and you win games.




#3001712 Shula, take note

Posted by CPantherKing on 05 October 2014 - 09:12 PM

But who was PPG? The only thing that really matters at the end of the day?

 

No sir. PPG comes from special teams, defense, and offense. Cannot credit an OC with ppg.

 

Secondly, you cannot compare a 15 drive game that produces a 49-42 score against a 9 drive game that produces a 21-14 score.

 

In a game you cannot have one team with 16 drives and another team with 8 drives. The drives will be even between the two teams in a single game. What style of game is the question. So, when you compare a team like the Eagles, Broncos, or Saints to a team like the Seahawks, 49ers, or Panthers on a per game basis you will see skewed stats. When you look at it on a per drive basis you get a clearer picture of how they will trade punches in a game. And then you get a beat down of a team like the Broncos in the Super Bowl.

 

PPG stats are used to market to consumers because they are bigger and brighter. PPD stats are used for evaluating production. If you want to measure inches and seconds, you look at drive production.




#3001599 Shula, take note

Posted by CPantherKing on 05 October 2014 - 08:35 PM

Could you point me to these rankings you speak of?

 

You judge an offensive coordinator on the following: (Giving you the ranks of Shula as the Panthers OC to all other offenses from 2013 to current week 2014)
 
- Plays per drive. Rank 3 
- Play call balance. 55% pass / 45% run Rank 7
- Time of possession per drive. Rank 2
- Yards per drive. Rank 13
- Scoring drive percentage. Rank 11
- Turnover drive percentage. Rank 2
 
The raw data is available to anyone.
 
These are the aspects the OC controls. Also, these key measures have a direct correlation to points/wins in the NFL. This shows you if the OC is putting their players in a position to win. Any other statistic one would use to assess a team is constructed off of these base components.
 
Pendry was ranked 20 or lower in every category.
 
Haskell was ranked 20 or lower in every category but 2. Scoring% and TO% were top 10.
 
Musgrave/Williamson ranked 20 or lower in all categories.
 
Henning ranked 20 or lower in all categories except TO% (Rank 18).
 
Davidson ranked 26 or lower in all categories except TO% (Rank 18).
 
Chudzinski Rank 12 plays/drive; 15 balance; 4 yards/drive; 8 time/drive; 10 Scoring%; 12 TO%
 
So, Chud only bests Shula in 1 category.
 
Warning to everyone: Be careful what you wish for, and remember the inefficient offenses you have had for years. You have one of the better OCs in the NFL right now regardless if you like his style or not (which I do not). The best? No. But you have 10 OCs you could get that are better, and they are all employed. Roll the dice on a new OC and your odds of worse are obviously greater. Just look at what the Panthers had for 16 seasons prior to Chud and Shula.
 
Would we like to have a Manning at QB, a Marshawn Lynch at RB, a Calvin Johnson at WR, or a JJ Watt on the defensive line? I am sure we all would, but you are asking for the small percentage of players that are elite. You are complaining because you want perfection. You want the best offense in NFL history. Well sometimes we have to be glad we have a top 10 and support what we have. Complain about the parts of the team that are among the leagues worst players/units.
 
Check the pitch forks and torches at the door before you burn down something that works and has a high level of success. You can always hope for perfection, but do not expect it. Cherish the elite players/coaches you do get to see in your lifetime, and respect the good players/coaches.



#2996654 PFF Preview: Bears @Panthers

Posted by CPantherKing on 04 October 2014 - 12:38 PM

Kelvin Benjamin against Kyle Fuller is the match up to exploit on the Bears.

 

Fuller is great in zone when he can watch the QB. He is average in man coverage and horrible in man coverage against big receivers. Fulller is all finesse. He does not have the strength to compete with stronger receivers.

 

The safety helping out Fuller over the top would be Ryan Mundy who is known for overextending himself on fakes.

 

Run Benjamin and Olsen together on Fuller's side. Use play action to the opposite side of Benjamin, or pump fakes to RBs out of the backfield or Cotchery on a post to pull Mundy. He bites a lot. When you pull the safety away from Benjamin you will get 1 of 2 things out of Fuller. He will play zone, read Cam, and split between Olsen and Benjamin, or he will have to pick up Benjamin deep. If you get Fuller on Benjamin's hip going down field that is a jump ball win for Benjamin. If you get Fuller sitting in a zone splitting Olsen and Benjamin, that is a deep shoulder fade to Benjamin. The deep fade is Benjamin's strength. Use Olsen in the seams to keep Mundy to the inside of the hashes which will isolate Benjamin on Fuller. If Fuller presses Benjamin, this is a mismatch as Benjamin will toss Fuller in the first 5 yards. In this case, run an 8 yard out.

 

Fuller wins on slants, comebacks, hitches, curls, and digs. No timing patterns to Fullers side. That is what he spends 80% of his time looking for during the game.

 

Exploit this and the Panthers offense puts up 30+ points. Ignore this and enjoy the loss.




#2995760 SwoleBones in Pass Protection

Posted by CPantherKing on 03 October 2014 - 12:37 PM

There is nothing wrong with holding. The championship teams do it all the time. Learning how to get away with it is the key. Any offensive linemen who does not hold will hold a team back.


#2995144 Star and KK getting reps at DE

Posted by CPantherKing on 02 October 2014 - 10:05 PM

Sounds like they are going to a 46 or 52 defense.

 

This is the perfect move. The best athletes on defense are the LBs. You cannot have offensive linemen teeing off on them. So you go 5 down linemen and 2 LBs.

 

Then you can audible to a 46 by bringing up Harper to the line and having your two DEs go over the TE.

 

This type of defense requires more stunting by the defensive linemen in a 52 which will keep teams from aiming at Star and Luke, which is what they have been doing the past 2 weeks. This also forces the offensive linemen to stay on the first level. Without threats at DE who need to be doubled or force max pro in a 4-3 you may as well go 52 because one of your LBs is just taking up space on an OL 5 yards deep.

 

Dwan and Cole rotate in at Nose. CJ, Star and KK play over the guards. Horton, Ealy and Addison play over the tackles. Luke and TD roam free and shoot the gaps with their reads. Bring Harper down in the box on the weak side when the offense has heavy personnel. Sub Klein or Blackburn in on 46 sets against the run and take Harper out.

 

When the offense goes spread on a 52, which is what usually happens to defeat a 52, the Panthers have 2 LBs who can cover. As long as it is Davis and Kuechly, I am not the least bit worried about a spread against a 52. If it is  an empty backfield set you now have 1 on 1 matchups with the OL. Empty sets/passing downs you go with Star at Nose, and CJ and Star play 3 techniques over the guards. This should be able to destroy the pocket up the middle one on one and push the QB into the DEs. The OTs are taken away from  Star, CJ, and KK and they only contend with 3 OLs up the middle. This will force the offense to keep at least one back in to block with the penetration that trio will get up the middle. And now Kuechly is free to roam again.

 

WIthout the rotation of Hardy, CJ, and Alexander at DE, the 4-3 is shot.

 

I have been wanting them to go to a 52 against the Steelers when we knew CJ was struggling at DE outside the OT and Hardy was gone with Alexander in limbo. This is the perfect fit with the Panthers current defensive personnel and they will get immediate pressure up the middle against the run and pass. Offensive guards will struggle with CJ  if you use him at DT in a 52.




#2993797 Rivera on Hardy

Posted by CPantherKing on 02 October 2014 - 12:44 AM

Not until officially remanded in superior court.

 

Superior courts do not remand district court decisions. Superior courts view district court decisions as though they never existed on day one.

 

Now an appellate court or supreme court can remand a superior court's decision.

 

District courts have no power over a defendant. They cannot even touch the defendant with any action outside of contempt unless the defendant agrees to the district court judgement with their John Hancock.






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