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Kral

Member Since 28 Feb 2009
Offline Last Active Today, 04:14 PM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: get on the gus bus

19 October 2014 - 06:45 PM

I'm on board any bus that results in firing Ron Rivera.


In Topic: Still in 1st Place

19 October 2014 - 06:42 PM

There is no way the Panthers beat the Seahawks.  31-16 Seahawks is my prediction.


In Topic: Poll

17 October 2014 - 10:08 PM

But you are leaving out the fact we still had 20 yards to the endzone. Average the Bengels redzone defense and our redzone TD% and you get a relatively unlikely probability. That we score a touchdown. When dealing with probability you also must multiply the probability of converting the 4th down by the probability of scoring a TD. That's the only way I know how to break that down. And honestly, while I think they should be separated , in the context of the argument you can't.

 

Even with 50 yards to go on fourth and two we would have had a greater chance of winning the game.


In Topic: Poll

13 October 2014 - 08:07 PM

WHaT?

Insane emotional reaction.  Forgive my venting.


In Topic: Poll

13 October 2014 - 08:06 PM

I see the probability point you are trying to make. But as close as this division looks like it may end up being I do believe taking the tie is greater. The flawed logic in this 4th and 1 argument is there is no guarantee we would have scored a touchdown. The fact that Dalton had already thrown two picks and is prone to folding under pressure makes me believe that the odds of kicking a field goal AND getting the ball back were higher than the probability of converting on 4th and 1 AND scoring a touchdown. (Multiplication rule)

 

I would say the chances of converting fourth and one (or two) is greater than the opposing kicker missing a 36 yard field goal.  Attempting the fourth and one (or two) had a significantly better increase in chance of winning the game versus attempting or even making the field goal we scored instead.


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