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micnificent28

Member Since 23 Nov 2009
Offline Last Active Today, 09:01 PM
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#2637878 Jerry Angelo (former Bears GM) ranks the league's QBs, Cam comes in at #4

Posted by micnificent28 on 01 February 2014 - 01:31 AM

you're kidding yourself into thinking I said that. physically gifted sure but that isn't what carried this team. He was physically gifted last year and the year before but we had no D. What has changed? it was a team effort in general but there is no way you cannot give the credit to the D as the major contributor to the improvement this year. They carried this team above anyone else.

Yes i agree the defense has a big part into us going 12-4. Your right in your thinking of that. But that doesn't change the way he has developed into making less mistakes and throwing less ints while also still remaining effective as a the biggest threat we have on offense. You can't just take cam out of the equation like your doing,NO other QB is asked to do as much for his team as Cam Newton. Thats what makes him one of a kind. Take payton manning away from the broncos still a good team. take russell from the seahawks still a good team and so on. Take cam from our offense the rushing goes down the 3rd down conversions go down. The total touchdowns period would drop off greatly. As Gettleman and so many others have said as Cam Newton goes so goes the panthers. This kid was in MVP conversations at the midway point up until the end of the season. You can't just say he has nothing to do with it. 




#2637213 Top 4 Wr ,metrics Watkins,Evans,Benjamin,lee

Posted by micnificent28 on 31 January 2014 - 03:18 PM

 

Where Did They Catch the Ball?

 

The table below represents the percentage of catches in each zone, it is color-coded so that an above-average number of receptions is greener and a below-average number is redder.

 

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Sammy Watkins’ receptions stick out like a sore thumb. It shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who’s watched Clemson that 57% of Watkins’ catches came off screens. We’ll examine his yards after the catch in relation to screens later in the piece, but that doesn’t discount the fact that you’d like to see more than 30% of his receptions come past 6 yards – just for some variation.

 

The most normalized reception chart belongs to Mike Evans, who was the closest to average among the top tier. Much will be made about Manziel and Evans’ connection and reliance on each other for deep balls. However, we still have to be impressed by the fact that at 6’5” Evans has caught the highest percentage of receptions past 20 yards amongst the top 15 WRs in this class. 

 

Like Evans, 25% of Benjamin’s receptions came on throws deeper than 20 yards. Benjamin’s receptions are well distributed among the various zones with the exception of screens. He caught 3 screens on the year where he totaled -8 yards. The screen game is not going to be strong for Kelvin at the next level.

 

Lee’s receptions are the most stunning, as only 3.5% of his catches (2 receptions) came deeper than 20 yards. He actually dropped more deep passes (3) than he caught. Other than that, we can see the influence of Kiffin’s passing game where the majority of Lee’s receptions came on short passes designed to get yards after the catch.

 

 

What Did They Do After They Caught It?

 

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- As alluded to earlier, Marqise Lee was put in situations where he could catch the ball short and take it for good yardage. His 7.05 yards after the catch is top 5 in the class, although his paltry 3.7 yards after the catch on screens leaves a little something to be desired.

 

- We can see the effects of Benjamin’s deep receptions as he caught the ball an average of 13.4 yards from the line of scrimmage, proving to be a solid deep threat. However, his 4.89 yards after the catch is the lowest among the top 15 WRs. That’s not necessarily a problem with a bigger WR as that’s not ‘where he wins’. However, we still have to take that into account when comparing him to other similarly sized WRs.

 

- Benjamin’s YAC becomes relevant when compared to Evans who averaged 7.63 yards after the catch. His yardage wasn’t just racked up on broken Manziel plays. On screens he averaged 8.92 yards after the catch, displaying an innate shiftiness/burst that he may not always get credit for. 

 

- I was a bit hard on Watkins earlier for his lack of receptions downfield, however we have to be impressed with his YAC. Despite catching 70% of his passes within 5 yards of the LOS, where defenses were keying in on him – he averaged the highest YAC of this class gaining 8.48 yards on average. Most importantly he still averaged a solid 6.1 yards on non-screen passes showing he can get it done all over the field

 

How Did they Catch the Ball?

 

The chart below represents the final break each WR made before catching the ball. The goal isn’t to tell you exactly what routes each WR ran, but the variety of breaks they made as well as how those affected their production. For instance, comebacks typically yield very little YAC (2.5 yards on average) while posts/corner/slants yield high yards after the catch. The chart has factored out screens.

 

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- When he’s not running screens, Watkins has the most normal distribution of route types. This makes his overall YAC on non-screens all the more impressive because we know he’s not running an excess of routes that lead to exaggerated YAC totals.

 

- As many have surmised via his tape, nearly 44% of Mike Evans’ catches are from coming back to the QB. Whether that’s on a scramble drill or designed route, that high number of comebacks takes away from his experience running sharp-breaking routes like square outs. Although we must consider Evans’ high YAC as a positive sign despite catching so many comebacks.

 

- Most interesting here is Benjamin and FSU’s utilization of the go route to take advantage of his height mismatch, nearly doubling the average for that specific type of route.

 

- Nearly 43% of Marqise Lee’s receptions came on short breaking in/out routes designed to put him in a position to gain yardage after the catch. I’m personally a bit surprised by the lack of post/corner/slants that have seemed to factor more heavily into USC’s past offenses.

 

How Are Their Hands?

 

Here are the drop rates for each of the WRs. I defined drops as balls that were easy receptions and likely bounced off the hands of a WR, not passes that a WR ‘could have caught’ with an acrobatic play. I won’t provide any commentary since it’s pretty self-explanatory.

 

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So much of a WR’s numbers depend on the quarterback, so we can’t always use stats as effectively as we do for other positions. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t value in them. Whether you use them to identify problems with a prospect’s hands or examine a WR’s YAC in depth, there is merit if you understand their potential and limitations. That’s all I have for now. I’ll answer any questions and tweet out additional info I have on Twitter @NU_Gap. Thanks for reading.

 

For some reason wouldn't let me post in the other thread.




#2636644 Peshek: WR Metrics 2.0

Posted by micnificent28 on 31 January 2014 - 01:59 AM

 

http://www.rotoworld...op-4-wr-metrics

 

 

 

Since posting the first tier of WRs, I received a number of tweets and emails asking why “X” player wasn’t in the first tier. A player’s exclusion from a tier doesn’t mean they won’t have some incredible stats, it just means I ran out of space to include them in the piece. To allay your concerns this week, I added a fifth player – Jarvis Landry to compare to the rest of the crop. The stats were gathered by hand charting every target from every game of these players. It’s important to note that these stats won’t predict which WR will be better, but explain their production and complement film study. You can find the first WR tier here.

 

Archive:

QB Metrics featuring Teddy BridgewaterDerek CarrBlake Bortles and Johnny Manziel.

WR Metrics 1.0 featuring Sammy WatkinsMike EvansMarqise Lee and Kelvin Benjamin.

 

 

Where Did They Catch the Ball?

 

The table below represents the percentage of catches in each zone, it is color-coded so that an above-average number of receptions is greener and a below-average number is redder.

 

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- You can’t get more average in terms of receptions than Brandin Cooks.  Aside from some slight variation, Cooks has a strong distribution across all the zones showing that he isn’t a one trick pony.

 

Jordan Matthews’ map of completions is very similar to that of Sammy Watkins. They both caught around 50% of their receptions behind the line of scrimmage with limited experience downfield. Whereas the average WR caught 35% of their passes deeper than 10 yards, Matthews only caught approximately 24%

 

- Representing an offense that often eschews shorter passes, Landry and Beckham both caught more passes downfield than average. Striking though, is the fact that Odell Beckham caught 62% of balls thrown to him past 10 yards. Beckham is clearly the deep threat here while Landry shows a tendency toward more intermediate passes.

 

- While he caught a low amount of passes 20+ yards (10.3%), Allen Robinson also caught a greater percentage of balls in the intermediate portion of the field. His biggest strength and most often run routes seem to be along the sideline in the intermediate zones.

 

 

What Did They Do After They Caught It?

 

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- At first blush Allen Robinson’s YAC looks very impressive at 7.56 yards per reception. That’s nothing to sneeze at regardless of circumstances. However, that number is propped up significantly due to Robinson’s ability to gain nearly 14.25 yards after the catch on screens. When that’s taken away, his YAC drops down to 4.2. There’s a good explanation that we’ll get to in a bit.

 

- Noticeable with Beckham is how deep he catches the ball - 13.81 yards from the line of scrimmage on average. His run after the catch overall tops out at 5.6 yards, which puts him in the middle of the pack. His strength though may not be creating amazing yards after the catch, but rather gaining first downs by beating his defender downfield.

 

Jordan Matthews is in a similar YAC predicament as Robinson. His overall YAC of 7.8 would put him second in this class only behind Sammy Watkins. However, his screens up this number significantly. On the 55% of his receptions that aren’t screens, he averages 4.7 YPC – a number that is slightly below average.

 

- To be honest, I was a bit surprised at how low Cooks’ YAC was. For a quick WR, you’d expect much more ability after the catch. However, I believe this is a product of Oregon State’s offense. While Brandin Cooks would have led all these draftable WRs in YAC during the 2012 season, Markus Wheaton (then #1 WR) had similarly low YAC. I’ll explain this more in the next section.

 

 

How Did they Catch the Ball?

 

The chart below represents the final break each WR made before catching the ball. The goal isn’t to tell you exactly what routes each WR ran, but the variety of breaks they made as well as how those affected their production. For instance, comebacks typically yield very little YAC (2.5 yards on average) while posts/corner/slants yield high yards after the catch. The chart has factored out screens.

 

8zDt81u.jpg

- Here’s where we get into Brandin Cooks’ low YAC. As I noted in the above intro, comebacks nearly always yield 2.5 yards after the catch regardless of receiver while posts/corners/slants bring the highest YAC. 39% of Cooks’ routes were comebacks while only 18% were high YAC yield routes. It seems that the number one WR in the Oregon State offense is destined to get low YAC due to play design.

 

Allen Robinson is in the same predicament, except nearly half of his receptions were on routes breaking back to the QB. We can’t necessarily say he would have been incredible at gaining yards after the catch in another system, but when we see that he averaged 14 yards on screens, it’s obvious that he’s not a slow mover.

 

- It’s much harder to explain away Jordan Matthews’ poor YAC than Cooks or Robinson. 45% of his non-screen receptions were high YAC producing slants/posts/corners, so why did he barely average 4.6 yards after the catch? It’s tough to say, but that’s when you have to start wondering if his run after the catch ability is a product of the Vanderbilt system.

 

- If we want to advance a pretty strong narrative we can put Jarvis Landry in the ‘possession receiver’ bucket where 36% of his receptions were on hard breaking in/out routes and another 33% were on slants and posts/corners. He does have a wide range of route running experience which is really a positive.

 

- Odell Beckham, like Landry, has a wide variety of route running experience (and runs those routes well) which should translate nicely to the NFL.

 

 

How Are Their Hands?

 

Here are the drop rates for each of the WRs. I defined drops as balls that were easy receptions and likely bounced off the hands of a WR, not passes that a WR ‘could have caught’ with an acrobatic play.

 

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- There’s not a whole lot of bad to see in this group. Anything below 6 or 7% is just about normal for NCAA wide receivers.

 

- The biggest player to watch out for here is Jordan Matthews who has a slightly above-average drop rate of 7.69%. There were a few 50/50 drops that I hedged on Matthews’ side for. He could realistically be anywhere between 7-11%. If you’re watching Matthews intently, keep an eye on his hands.

 

- I only have 2 dropped balls for Landry all season, that’s incredible.

 

So much of a WR’s numbers depend on the quarterback, so we can’t always use stats as effectively as we do for other positions. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t value in them. Whether you use them to identify problems with a prospect’s hands or examine a WR’s YAC in depth, there is merit if you understand their potential and limitations. That’s all I have for now. I’ll answer any questions and tweet out additional info I have on Twitter@NU_Gap. Thanks for reading.

 

 




#2635541 Jordan Matthews

Posted by micnificent28 on 30 January 2014 - 02:47 AM

i have seen him run some amazing routes(post corners, double moves, verticals, drags, digs, post), and i have seen him high point balls this year. he is by far the best WR prospect in the draft this year, but every one has their own opinion.

He also has one of the highest drop rates in this class and caught most of his passes on screens...but if u say so.


#2627835 Jordan Matthews

Posted by micnificent28 on 22 January 2014 - 07:03 PM

First off the guy is not an elite athlete so lets get that out the way. showed up 6'2 at the senior bowl so hes not freakishly tall. Add that 2 the fact he has so drops and scouts note he couldn't separate from senior bowl cbs not nfl starters... I would not touch this guy in the first. I'd rather go with benjamin or worst case odell beckham jr. if he's there in the second maybe,but playing in the SEC doesnt make you a great player. People don't seem to understand system fits and this guy could just be that a system wr. 




#2625151 You Better Get To Know "CALVIN PRYOR"!

Posted by micnificent28 on 20 January 2014 - 04:35 PM

Pryor would take our defense to the next level

 

Yes let's ignore the biggest problems on our team to take our biggest strength to the next level. I swear the huddle must have some input into the way the panthers really draft which explains why a 34 year old is our number one wr and he's still the center piece to our offense.If Gman Goes safety in the first it will just show how messed up our front offices priorities really are. I'm already Sick for how the front office has handled cam already. If you have a franchise qb you build around him not handicap him even further by going safety. This kid could be a hall of fame qb be but your answer is to let him further make all the plays with his legs. Kap has crabs bolden and davis. cam has a aging star and a guy who is closer to a wr than te.




#2624379 You Better Get To Know "CALVIN PRYOR"!

Posted by micnificent28 on 20 January 2014 - 02:19 AM

Please tell me our GM who just got crushed by the 49ers doesn't think.....oh i know why we lost we need more defense! seriously 0 chance of this happening in the first round as much as you like him.




#2620378 Draft: Ideal position value by round

Posted by micnificent28 on 17 January 2014 - 05:23 PM

 

1st: CB or OT
2nd: OT or CB
3rd OG
4th WR
5th TE
6th S
7th OLB or DE
7th Oline or CB

 

The fug is this...




#2620369 Worst mock draft I've seen yet

Posted by micnificent28 on 17 January 2014 - 05:16 PM

dumping barner after one year would not be smart. he was taken in the late rounds. why??? because he's a PROJECT. its takes time for projects to develop.

 

Barner only knock isnt he is big enough

 

Just think about this: both Dwill and Barner are both 5'9 the major difference is Dwill weighs in at 215 while Barner weighs in a 190. Once Barner puts on 20+ pounds he will be able to make the impact you want or have been expecting him to make.

 

Dwill and Barner also run around 4.4. Gettlemen really took Barner to be a replacement for Dwill

 

Think about what u just said. A project just like armanti just like joe adams and pilares. Some projects just dont workout. He just doesn't have it. What RB have u ever heard of putting on 20 pounds in the NFL? Even if he did he wouldn't be the same Barner you know him as and would lose all of what speed you think he has. late round projects get cut all the time sometimes in there first year. Cutting barner would be no love lost. Panther fans need to learn to let go. That's the exact reason why we have 2 rbs making 40 million each,this is a company not a family.




#2614524 28th Pick in May

Posted by micnificent28 on 14 January 2014 - 02:39 AM

If we draft OT in the first cam should leave and im serious.




#2614518 austin seferian-jenkins

Posted by micnificent28 on 14 January 2014 - 02:30 AM

I like ebron and amaru better but i m sure they will be gone and I know i ve spoken on this guy before but if all the receivers are gone benjamin evans and so on. This would be a great pick late in the first. 6'6 270 blocks and catches at the point of attack better than any player in the draft. can't seen enuff how much he would help the redzone offense and free up a roster spot allowing us to cut hartsock. There are 3 bluechip tightends in this class and might be the best tightend class i've seen in the last 8 years.




#2613848 Something Cam Said...

Posted by micnificent28 on 13 January 2014 - 07:44 PM

How come this dude only posts when he has something to troll cam about.




#2611207 Fudge it....Trade up for Sammy watkins.

Posted by micnificent28 on 12 January 2014 - 09:22 PM

I know  this will get flamed but i would not hate the idea. The guy is the best wideout to come out since AJ Green/Julio Jones. The guy does everything atleast average to above average. He high points the ball he's strong and could run as fast as 4.33(rumored). The guy is ripped for 205-210 receiver,and run over defenders. This guy is a weapon and would also be our new KR allowing ted to work on his wr skills.Every team in our division has a true number one and i'm exspecting Smitty to look even worse than this year. He is worth a top 5 pick and if he slips outside of that range I would not mind a move ala falcons a few seasons ago. Instant offense. I know we have needs everywhere but true bluechip players like this don't come out every year.  I can't watch another season of pray someone gets open for cam.




#2611164 Carolina Panthers: the 28th Pick

Posted by micnificent28 on 12 January 2014 - 09:09 PM

All about value. Anything you get at 28 will not be top of the line but the real value in this draft will be rounds 2-3. with so many underclassmen coming out this year(record breaking) someone is going to get some steals on the back end of the first all the way to the third.ASJ wouldn't be my pick if ebron and amaru were on the board but thats unlikely. Also would go with benjamin if he were there but with cleveland picking before us i dout it. ASJ has the best hands and catch at the point of attack of anyone in the draft. And he may be more pro ready than most due to his ability to atleast come in and be a decent blocker which none of the other tes really can do at this point.




#2610610 Austin Seferian-Jenkins on the back end of the first.

Posted by micnificent28 on 12 January 2014 - 07:05 PM

Just give me a receiver that can actually take some pressure off of smitty. Not a fuging TE. Some dudes need to quit living in Cam's rookie year

Jenkins Is as close to Gronk this year as you can get. The name of the game is value and weapons.  There is not a better catch at the point of attack player in the draft than Jenkins. It's hard to over throw 6'6 270 as cam normally does and makes it  easy on 3rd downs as well. He's not nearly as slow as most assume and would be a great addition. Face it olsen is closer to a receiver than te. Having a big weapon on 3rd down who can catch down the middle would be just as effective as drafting a back end wr. If your not trading up to land Watkins this is as good as any other move you can make. Everyone thought the patriots were crazy for drafting Hernadez and gronk but look how that worked(minus murders). This draft is deep at wr getting some like odell beckham jr in the second would be just as good to me. This offense needs weapons period. I don't care if they are Te or wr. Upgrade the offense. 






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