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KJDaniel31

Member Since 11 Jan 2011
Offline Last Active Oct 18 2011 03:47 PM
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#1349445 What does Cam have to do

Posted by KJDaniel31 on 25 August 2011 - 12:20 AM

:lol: Sorry if you think that is a trick question. And I have answered every question you have asked me I believe. Maybe not the way you wanted me to but I have answered them. And what leads you to believe I haven't been honest.


It's quite simple....you are arguing things you know for a fact arent true. I have not once changed my stance nor my argument. You finally answered ONE QUESTION (after avoiding it like the plague) which finally allowed us to discuss your stance in depth. You have accused me of making things too simple, but how is the above misrepresentation of what I have said any different?

I say no QB who runs as much as Cam did in college has ever been successful. In order to get you to pick the most similar QB to Cam who you believe to be successful for discussion sake, I have to dumb it down to simply "half as many rushing yards". FINALLY you bite, and pick someone.

Did you really think that was it? Here, Steve McNair....I WIN! Did you really think I was claiming that no QB who rushed for half the yards Cam did has ever been decent in the NFL? Sure they have, so what was different about them that made them more successful? They all threw EXPONENTIALLY more than Cam did in college.

My stance all along is much more complex than what you are pretending. Even though Steve ran for nearly 1000 yards, it is obvious that he was developing his passing skills (by throwing the ball) at a MUCH higher rate than Cam did, nearly 4-1.

To label this "backtracking" or "changing my stance" cannot be label anything other than dishonest. Why is there a need for it? Why not just continue the discussion, and explain why you disagree? For someone who seems this smart, your tactics confuse me.

And as far as your last question I will answer like I have all night. Why does it matter if it is irrelevant?? In 2008 there had never been a black President does that mean there is no way Barack Obama wins?? :lol:

Is your point that there is a first time for everything? Good, I agree. Cam may very well be the first of his type of QB to succeed. I have no problem with this stance of yours, it is honest and reasonable. I simply dont see how such a longshot deserves to be #1 in the draft.


As far as dealing in realism and fact. Are you saying it is a fact that Cam Newton is the same person as The Golden Calf of Bristol?? Same QB as The Golden Calf of Bristol?? Has same mechanics as The Golden Calf of Bristol?? Same skill set as The Golden Calf of Bristol??

I mean if you boil it down that is what you are saying. Your argument to this point (after it changing at least three separate times after massive fails :lol:) is "The Golden Calf of Bristol ran the ball almost equal to the times he ran the ball in college. Cam Newton ran the ball near equal number times a game. The Golden Calf of Bristol is struggling as an NFL QB. Therefore Cam Newton will struggle as an NFl QB" :rofl:


More dishonesty....where have I said that Cam and Tim are the same person, or same abilities, or anything resembling this? I'd love to see this quote.

Again, you willfully leave out vast parts of my argument in the dishonest attempt to simplify it. I have argued that the run/pass ratio is a sign of one or more of the following:

1. Lacks passing skills
2. Lacks coverage understanding
3. Excels at running
4. A run heavy play calling system

All lead to a lack of development of passing skills. Many QBs had promising passing skills before college, but due to their systems, these skills were severely held back. Case in point is Stephen McGee.

Mcgee was the 4th rated pocket passer in the 2004 class by rivals.com (not even listed as a dual threat QB). He graduated in the top 10 in passing yards in the history of Texas high school football, as well as 3A all time leader in Tds and did not throw a single INT as a senior. He committed to Texas A&M, which is my favorite team, and I was ecstatic that we may finally drop the option offense. His gutsy play quickly made him my favorite college player ever, and I hoped we would develop a system around his skills. We didn't until late in his career, while he was constantly hurt, and though Stephen was an athlete, he should have been developing his passing skills rather than getting beaten up every week running the option. His career as a QB was severely damaged, and now most people simply think he has always been a runner. He has all the skills of an NFL pocket passer, but they have not been developed much at all. I hold out hope for him, but the odds are so low.

It is ridiculous on its face KJ. Can you only work in simple formulas? Does it even matter that he did throw the ball 20 times a game and had nearly 3,000 yards passing and 30 tds?? Or is this broad brush ONLY covered by this ratio??

Perhaps if you would just accurately discuss my position, we could intelligently discuss yours? Honesty will go a long way here.

I will finish up with this. If you think Cam is going to suck that is fine. But base it on something a little better than this. This is too weak. Say he has accuracy issues. That he has short hopped some throws in the preseason. Something like that.

Because saying a guy is going to fail bc he had too many designed runs called for him in college is really too simple minded to take seriously.

I do believe he will fail, and for the reasons you listed. I have never said anything other than this. These faults are the RESULT of his lack of development as a passer, due to the high % of runs vs pass in major college football. You simply cannot become a better passer without throwing the ball.

Now, my stance since January is that Cam Newton's abilities most closely resemble Vince Young, especially comparing their final season. Of course, many here cringe at that, since Vince has been a huge disappointment. However, he is the closest to the parameters you have asked for:

1. Threw for 3000 yards; ran for 1000. Threw 25 pass att/G
2. 1.58 Pass/Run ratio career; 2.09 SR year.
3. Threw for 26 TDs, ran for 12
4. #3 pick overall.
5. Measurables (6'5; 235 lbs)

Now, if Vince threw a higher % of the time than Cam did, had comparable stats/success at the end of the year, how much should we be worried about Cam's development as a passer? Should we consider that Vince also had much more talent at RB, which kept his rushing stats much lower than perhaps they would have been had he had Cam's RBs?

Do you disagree that Vince's statistics most closely mirror Cam's? Would you agree that his talents/abilities are the closest as well?

(Since you struggle with this, CLOSELY does not equal SAME).


#1347649 What does Cam have to do

Posted by KJDaniel31 on 23 August 2011 - 10:14 PM

Your computer should have been wet a long time ago.

My scenario is no more ridiculous than yours. Judging results solely by what has happened in the past is a sure-fire way to insure long term mediocrity.


Except that it is. There are left handed and right handed pocket passers and running QBs. Right and left hand has no affect on their skills. We are discussing SKILLS. Can you discuss Cam's skills here, or do you really need to sink to this level to avoid admitting you are completely clueless?

You choose to focus on the fact that Cam can run and has done so with success. So what, so can your boy Locker. Yet you choose to focus on that aspect of his game and ignore the 66% completion rate or the 30 TDs.


Oh boy...you really need to make an effort to have some idea what you are talking about BEFORE posting.

Cam's averages in college:
20 Pass att/19 rush att
203 Pass YPG/105 Rush YPG

Locker's averages:
29 Pass Att/ 11 rush att
191 pass YPG/ 45 Rush YPG

Even counting Jake's freshman year, which severe skewed his stats, his % of pass to rush att (2.6 to 1) is no where near Cam's (1.05). Take away Locker's freshman year (where he ran for more than half his career total) and the stats are even more clear: Jake Locker threw the ball nearly 3 times for every time he ran, while Cam was just about 1 for 1.

How is this similar? Simply because Jake CAN run?

You just don't like Cam for whatever reason, and that's your right. Just don't try to convince us it is because of facts and logic, because you have showed us little of either.

I have shown NOTHING but facts...you have avoided every opportunity to do so. You have nothing but blind homerism to show for your support of Cam's chances for success. If I am wrong, I would love to see the precedent you have for someone with Cam's skills who succeeded in today's NFL.


#1347453 What does Cam have to do

Posted by KJDaniel31 on 23 August 2011 - 08:06 PM

20 Tds and 9 INTs is flat out comedy....it shows that some here love to type, but don't care to have a clue. It could be the most idiotic thing I've read here since comparing Cam to Big Ben.

I put Cam's chances for long term success at around 5%. For him to show me that he is on track to prove me wrong, he would need to show that he is developing into a competent pocket passer. No problem with running when you have to, but if he isn't developing from the pocket, he is a waste of time.

If we wise up and move him to a better position, like WR, then it's likely I will be happy with his development much sooner.


#1329415 Mallett/Gabbert/Cam/Ponder/Locker

Posted by KJDaniel31 on 15 August 2011 - 01:01 AM

moore and an impact nfl player such as aj, pp dareus and it's not even close.


this


#1159397 My Big Board

Posted by KJDaniel31 on 24 April 2011 - 02:08 PM

10 Players to forget

1. Cam Newton (QB, Aub) – His abilities translate into a great 3rd/4th round project for a backup QB. Lacks accuracy, coverage understanding, experience in a pro system, character, and just about everything else needed to succeed in the NFL. Only chance will be for a team who runs a spread offense, which right now is only Buffalo. Any true pro system will swallow him whole.

2. Mark Ingram (RB, Bama) - Mark has a degenerative knee condition which I feel is going to seriously hinder him. Not a game breaker or a bulldozer, his main assets are vision and patience. He will be solid but unspectacular while healthy, but expect a very short career.

3. Jimmy Smith (CB, Colo) – Good size and speed but serious character and work ethic concerns. Should be a 3rd round pick but likely to be off the board by pick 40.

4. Nick Fairley (DT, Aub) – One year wonder known for laziness and moronic penalties as much as his great athletic ability. Money is likely to change him and I expect him to be out of the league very soon.

5. Brooks Reed (LB, ARZ) – A guy who few thought much of before the combine. Looks like a 1st rounder in the combine, but a decent 4th rounder with long term project written all over him on tape. Lacks counter moves and really only took advantage of weak opponents. Unlikely to contribute for a couple of years, if ever.

6. Colin Kaepernick (QB, Nev) – Nothing about this guy says NFL starting QB to me. Great feet and decent size, he looks like a perfect backup QB candidate starting around the 5th round. Many are predicting a 2nd round pick for him, which is going to set a team back quite a bit.

7. Torrey Smith (WR, Maryland) – As far as KRs go, Smith is at the top of the list. As a WR, beware of speed guys who simply can’t catch. Doesn’t show good route discipline at all and seems terrified across the middle. I watch him play and think I’m watching Troy Williamson.

8. Allen Bailey (DL, Miami) – Too small to play DT, too slow to play DE, not a great pass rusher or run stopper to play anywhere. Bailey looks great in shorts but doesn’t really cause many problems for offenses when on the field. Considered a 2nd round pick by many, but seems like a career backup to me.

9. Phil Taylor (DT, Baylor) – Too many strikes against him already. Got kicked out of Penn State (tough to do) and now has an inoperable foot condition. Looks good on tape, but too many things likely to keep him off the field.

10. Derek Sherrod (OL, MissSt.) – Lacks strength, doesn’t seem to care when he is beat or beat up. I prefer OL who like to hurt people. This guy isn’t an ugly type of player, and finesse OL are not high percentage picks.


#1159395 My Big Board

Posted by KJDaniel31 on 24 April 2011 - 02:06 PM

I've been reading quite a bit lately but not posting, and it is interesting to see the various views on different players. I am a draft junkie and spend alot of free time watching tape on players, as its so much fun to predict the unknowns who become stars (I love to boast about Miles Austin and Matt Cassel) or the "can't miss" blue chippers who turn out to be worthless (who didn't see JaMarcus Russell and Alex Smith coming?). So here is my top 32 players in terms of value, along with 10 Overrated and 10 Sleepers. Of course, there are some controversial picks, so I am curious to hear the discussion.

Big Board

1. Patrick Peterson (DB, LSU)- He is just the best football player on the board, but at a very low level position. I believe he is a FS in the NFL, and will be an Ed Reed type game changer. At CB, he will be very good and could even be great, but I'd love to see him with more freedom to make plays at FS. Possibly a pro bowler as a rookie.

2. Jake Locker (QB, Wash) - VERY controversial here, but it appears that many more are agreeing with me after seeing him throw at the combine. This guy is a leader of men, high character, better on the run than any QB in the last 10 years (agrees Mike Mayock) and has a serious arm. I felt all along that he had terrible talent around him, and he willed these guys to a winning season and 2 straight wins over USC. He is the best athlete at QB in the draft, more accurate than people who only read stats realize, and he is a top level talent who can play from Day 1. In 3 years I expect him to be a top 10 QB.

3. Marcell Dareus (DT, Bama) - He's huge, fast and is known as a hard worker, all big things at the DT position. Can play in the 3-4 or 4-3, and seems to have the strength and quickness to adapt to many systems. Probably the safest pick in the draft.

4. Von Miller (OLB, TAMU) – Many feel that Miller had a down year in 2010, but forget that he played injured for the first month and a half. As a JR he led the nation in sacks and spent most of the year in the offensive backfield VS the run as well. He’s a pure edge rushing 3-4 OLB, but has shown enough agility to be competent in coverage. Primary rush moves are the best in the class. Very high character guy, will work hard and should be an elite pass rusher for years to come.

5. Julio Jones (WR, Bama) – I know many have AJ Green as the #1 WR, but I just see too much ability on tape from Jones to put anyone above him. Big, strong and fast with good awareness and body control, he is a nightmare for CBs to cover 1v1. Not great after the catch, but powerful enough to gain a few yards in traffic and fast enough to run away from most DBs. More of an athlete than a polished product at this point, but is sure to be a great WR at the next level.

6. Prince Amukamara (CB, Neb) – Elite instincts and coverage skills, and has proven to have better speed than one thought. Perhaps not a pure ball hawk, but Prince is the type who can take any WR in CFB out of the game plan. A safe pick as well, given his high character, he never missed a game at NEB, and ready to play immediately.

7. A. J. Green (WR, UG) – Clearly the best route runner and best hands of the draft at WR. Good size and speed and is very dangerous in the vertical passing game. The knocks on him are that he seems to be hurt a lot and really doesn’t do much after the catch. Even so, with a solid QB Green will see his share of Pro Bowl seasons.

8. Mike Pouncey (OC, FLA) – Perhaps a low level position, but is among the best football players in the draft. A very safe pick, he never missed a game in CFB and is known as a leader on and off the field. Likely to start from day 1, he has the intelligence and experience to be an asset right away. More athletic than strong, he will need to add strength to maximize ability.

9. Robert Quinn (DE, UNC) – More of a pure athlete than a football player at this point, but his measurables are off the charts. Lacks rush moves, especially after the initial block, but his motor and work ethic have never been questioned. I believe he will learn the skills to go with elite athleticism and become a top edge rusher, likely in the 4-3.

10. Ryan Mallet (QB, Ark) I have gone back and forth on this guy for months, however a couple of film sessions against bigtime SEC opponents will cure that. This guy torched the best defenses in college football for 2 years, and less than 5% of NCAA fans can name another player on his offense. He has elite size and arm strength, and his accuracy surprised me. I am cautious of what money will do to him, but he really seems to want to win, and his teammates love him. He will cause major problems for defenses who will now have to guard the whole field due to his ability to make every throw. Boom or bust pick, but most likely a boom.

11. J. J. Watt (DE, Wisc) – This is pretty high to rank a 3-4 DE, but this guy’s motor is off the charts. Playing the 5 technique is more about effort and strength, both things Watt excels at. You literally never see him quit on a play, and he often wears down the OL late in games. May never have big stats since he isn’t an elite pass rusher, but will be a solid anchor for a 3-4 for many years.

12. Blaine Gabbert (QB, Mizzou) – Blaine doesn’t amaze me at any aspect of QB play, but he isn’t weak in any area, either. He has good arm strength and though many doubt his ability to play under center, he’s played that way all through high school and the drops should come back to it easily. He seems to go through reads very well and has a good understanding of coverages, and has good accuracy to put the ball on target. Smart, hard working and good mechanics will overcome his slight lack of raw talent. Likely to be a solid starter and fringe pro bowler.

13. Tyron Smith (OT, USC) – Would likely be a top 5 pick next year, so some team in the late top 10 or early teens will get a steal in a year or 2. Very athletic with great feet, but like most top level pass blockers he must add strength to be a great OT in the NFL. All signs point to a dedicated player and should be the best OT in this draft.

14. Nate Solder (OT, Colo) – Just barely behind Smith due to the difference in athleticism, but Solder is the smartest player at his position in a long time. He has a great understanding of the game and assignments, is never out of position, and has a huge frame with which to add strength. Expect Nate to be perhaps the unsexy steady Eddie of the OL class.

15. Corey Liuget (DT, Ill) - Next to Dareus he is the best DT against the run, and as such will be draft very high. A true “in the trenches” guy who loves taking on double teams and still making plays. A great tackler and endless motor along with great instincts for the run game will keep Corey in a job for a long time. Wont provide much pass rush, so he is likely a 2 down player.

16. Marvin Austin (DT, UNC) – I always worry about guys who break major NCAA rules and what will happen to them when they finally get money, so this guy scares me. On talent alone, he is a top 5 pick, but he hasn’t played football in a year and is likely a character problem waiting to happen. He gets off blocks as well as anyone in the 1st round this year, and is dangerous in the passing game as well. Should be a beast when he is on the field, but work ethic is a definite concern.

17. Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Pur) – Many have Ryan as a OLB, but he has not shown any ability to play in space in my opinion to be anything but a 4-3 DE. Solid vs the run and a very good pass rusher, he doesn’t hurt you in any aspect of the game and will dominate inexperienced OL. Lack of versatility will hurt him on draft day, but on the field he will make plays from day 1.

18. Kyle Rudolph (TE, ND) A split TE in the mold of Greg Olsen, Kyle is as dangerous with the ball as without it. Great feet and can make people miss, he will cause a lot of problems for LBs who are too slow or DBs who are too small. Needs to develop his blocking, but with the way teams use 2 TEs now he will be a hot item on draft day as the clear cut #1 TE.

19. Aldon Smith (DE, Mizzou) – Smith is a pure pash rusher in the Jevon Kearse mold. Struggles mightily against the run, so I have him valued much lower than other edge rushers in this draft. Even so, he will cause a lot of problems on passing downs, and that is a very valuable skill in the NFL. Likely to have great numbers even as a rookie.

20. Muhammad Wilkerson (DT, Temp.) – Another of the unsexy but solid DL in this draft, Wilkerson really seems to be solid at everything. Elite against the run, he can likely start week 1 on 1st and 2nd downs. Really not much in the area of pass rushing, but run stopping ability will get him on the field as a rookie.

Continued.....


#1022924 In This Thread I Talk Rationally About Drafting A QB #1 Overall.

Posted by KJDaniel31 on 30 January 2011 - 03:11 AM

and for those who think it is asinine check out what one NFL scout said to Ross Tucker a contributor to ESPN:

NFL scout to me: " If VY went #3 & The Golden Calf of Bristol 1st Rd, wouldn't surprise me at all if Cam Newton went #1. His upside is limitless."

I will say Cam is bigger, faster, and has a much better throwing motion/is a more efficient passer than VY so maybe the scout's got a point.


I suspect these same guys were high on Alex Smith and Jamarcus Russell....I couldn't care less what some random unnamed scout says, considering I know a couple of scouts myself. Smart teams want no part of him as a first round QB, but also know he has no interest in moving to a position where he would actually be good.

So he's a better prospect than one horrid QB, and one major project at QB who is a career overachiever.

That's like saying "here, drink this anti-freeze....its better than hydrochloric acid."


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