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About Lasus83.

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  1. yes... in the 2020 draft. Further, if your thinking logically and we assume that the arm really is long-term-toast, than you must consider the possibility of trading him. 'but a team won't trade for a Cam Newton with a bum arm'. They have doctors that would do evaluations, sure. But mistakes are made by front offices all the time. We present a Cam at 80% to a Jacksonville, Washington, Miami, NY etc. Teams that could use a starting QB and may consider the risk of a hurt MVP at 29 better than a 21 year old college player... There is value to be had. Hell, he would sell as a tip-tier backup (Nick Foles). He would sell as someone to shelve, until healthy, on teams with aging/good QBs. What is that value, I wonder? The market will dictate it, of course. Something is only worth what others are willing to pay for it... or you are willing to buy it for. I'd argue, with what we know if the injury, that he is worth Kalil Mack compensation.
  2. If we draft a QB in the 1st or 2nd, I think it should be considered a mistake by all. The quality of this draft matches our deficiency. Trade up to get 'your guy', here and there, but do so in a manner that benefits this team in the longer sense than a 'knee jerk' QB selection would mean. Get as many top 100 defenders and OLine men as possible.
  3. I feel like each year we get blindsided, in the mid rounds, with guys that have us all scrambling to look up who the hell we just drafted. Grier is on a lot of our radars, for better or worse, and I would welcome the addition. I think it is more likely, though, that we end up with someone that we have never heard of. We have not drafted a QB for many years... longer than any other team IIRC. I'll bet we break that trend with back-to-back 19/20 selections. I won't bet much... but if the worst case ends up being the case, we will have a long year in 2019 and a exciting draft in 2020.
  4. I concur on the civilized back and forth. I suppose I defend the fanaticism because I sometimes fall victim to it. The investment, emotional and financial, that I have in this team is boarderline committment worthy. None of that is an acceptable excuse, as you say, and when level heads prevail apologies are often in order. The point I am hung up on is that I saw no meaning in the win. We did not beat the Saints in any more way than we would have if the game was played in September. In september, I don't care about wins, I care about seeing young players and depth players. I care about starters getting in rythem. Even the latter was irrelevant in this game. The only things at stake were pride and the draft pick. I like beating the saints just as much as anyone (except the falcons and maybe pats), but not at the potential cost. I do concede your original point. The anger expressed towards one another was juvenile. Time to move on.
  5. 2 things, 1. Vitriol - We are talking about a sport/team that has fans. In the words of Colin Cowherd, 'fan' is short for 'fanatic'. There are going to be fanatical, heated arguments even over the littlest things. Sensibility exits when dealing with this kind of passion and especially with the propensity for it to be coupled with alcohol. That is, think of this place as a bunch of 3 year olds and you'll sleep better. I have a 3 year old. I make a point not to argue with her because she will drag me down to her level and then beat me with experience.... wanna know how I know? I've argued, and lost, more times than I would like to admit. 2. To the rest of your point - ...and I believe the root of the debate. Is the anger over the drop in draft position warranted? Well, insofar as anger will not change anything, no. However, the drop is significant. Maybe not singularly for round 1, but the value of the overall class is diminished. You may have a crap shoot either way and it may be akin to the lottery, especially if you factor in the chances of injury or off the field issues, but the odds are better with higher picks. In a vacuum, where we eliminate all of the aforementioned and have 'god' (for lack of a better example) pick the players, the players are better in the earlier rounds. Please see my previous post on pro-bowlers. Also, should you consider the picks commodities, the value of those selections is higher with #9 than #16 and that difference is very significant. We won a meaningless game and it means we are now driving a Mustang GT as opposed to a Mustang Shelby GT500. The GT is nice, but boy that GT500 is a helluva lot nicer... and we are pissed because the wife made us buy the GT even though the GT500 only cost a little bit more. Hell, we were already losing... we had sorta grown used to it. Now some good could come of it and we thought: 'what's one more game?'
  6. So, in taking a look at the past 5 drafts I noticed a few different trends. This data is players that made the pro-bowl for the past 5 years supplied by Wikipedia. - For immediate impact, your success rate is dramatically higher when drafting in the top 10 picks. - Players taken 11-32 begin to pick up steam 2-3 years out and have really hit their stride in years 3-5. - Top 100 picks are at a premium and represent almost 80% of the pro-bowlers selected in the last 5 years. 2017 1 1 1 Cleveland Browns Myles Garrett † DE 11 Pro Bowlers 1 6 New York Jets Jamal Adams † S 4 in top 11 36% 1 10 Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes † QB 7 in top 100 64% 1 11 New Orleans Saints Marshon Lattimore † CB 2 36 Arizona Cardinals Budda Baker † S 3 67 New Orleans Saints Alvin Kamara † RB 3 86 Kansas City Chiefs Kareem Hunt † RB 3* 105 Pittsburgh Steelers James Conner † RB 4 112 Chicago Bears Eddie Jackson † S 4 119 Chicago Bears Tarik Cohen † RB 5 146 San Francisco 49ers George Kittle † TE 2016 1 1 1 Los Angeles Rams Jared Goff † QB 16 Pro Bowlers 1 2 Philadelphia Eagles Carson Wentz † QB 5 in top 10 31% 1 3 San Diego Chargers Joey Bosa † DE 12 in top 100 75% 1 4 Dallas Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott † RB 1 5 Jacksonville Jaguars Jalen Ramsey † CB 1 17 Atlanta Falcons Keanu Neal † S 2 38 Miami Dolphins Xavien Howard † CB 2 47 New Orleans Saints Michael Thomas † WR 2 52 Atlanta Falcons Deion Jones † LB 3 64 Tennessee Titans Kevin Byard † S 3 69 Jacksonville Jaguars Yannick Ngakoue † DE 4 99 Cleveland Browns Joe Schobert † LB 4 117 Los Angeles Rams Pharoh Cooper † WR 4* 135 Dallas Cowboys Dak Prescott † QB 5 150 Chicago Bears Jordan Howard † RB 5 165 Kansas City Chiefs Tyreek Hill † WR 2015 1 1 1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jameis Winston † QB 16 Pro Bowlers 1 4 Oakland Raiders Amari Cooper † WR 6 in top 10 38% 1 5 Washington Redskins Brandon Scherff † OT 13 in top 100 81% 1 6 New York Jets Leonard Williams † DE 1 8 Atlanta Falcons Vic Beasley † DE 1 10 St. Louis Rams Todd Gurley † RB 1 15 San Diego Chargers Melvin Gordon † RB 1 18 Kansas City Chiefs Marcus Peters † CB 2 33 New York Giants Landon Collins † S 2 43 Houston Texans Benardrick McKinney † LB 3 69 Seattle Seahawks Tyler Lockett † WR 3 86 Arizona Cardinals David Johnson † RB 3 88 Minnesota Vikings Danielle Hunter † DE 4 124 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Kwon Alexander † LB 5 149 Miami Dolphins Jay Ajayi † RB 5* 172 Kansas City Chiefs D. J. Alexander † LB 2014 1 1 1 Houston Texans Jadeveon Clowney † DE 21 pro bowlers 1 5 Oakland Raiders Khalil Mack † LB 5 in top 10 24% 1 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Evans † WR 8 in 11-32 38% 1 9 Minnesota Vikings Anthony Barr † LB 19 in top 100 90% 1 10 Detroit Lions Eric Ebron † TE 1 11 Tennessee Titans Taylor Lewan † OT 1 12 New York Giants Odell Beckham † WR 1 13 St. Louis Rams Aaron Donald † DT 1 14 Chicago Bears Kyle Fuller † CB 1 15 Pittsburgh Steelers Ryan Shazier † LB 1 16 Dallas Cowboys Zack Martin † G 1 17 Baltimore Ravens C. J. Mosley † LB 1 32 Minnesota Vikings Teddy Bridgewater † QB 2 34 Dallas Cowboys DeMarcus Lawrence † DE 2 36 Oakland Raiders Derek Carr † QB 2 53 Green Bay Packers Davante Adams † WR 2 61 Jacksonville Jaguars Allen Robinson † WR 2 63 Miami Dolphins Jarvis Landry † WR 3 92 Carolina Panthers Trai Turner † G 4 103 Atlanta Falcons Devonta Freeman † RB 5 144 Jacksonville Jaguars Telvin Smith † LB 2013 1 1 1 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Fisher † OT 28 pro bowlers 1 4 Philadelphia Eagles Lane Johnson † OT 3 in top 10 11% 1 5 Detroit Lions Ezekiel Ansah † DE 9 in 11-32 32% 1 13 New York Jets Sheldon Richardson † DT 24 in top 100 86% 1 18 San Francisco 49ers Eric Reid † S 1 20 Chicago Bears Kyle Long † G 1 21 Cincinnati Bengals Tyler Eifert † TE 1 22 Atlanta Falcons Desmond Trufant † CB 1 25 Minnesota Vikings Xavier Rhodes † CB 1 27 Houston Texans DeAndre Hopkins † WR 1 29 Minnesota Vikings Cordarrelle Patterson † WR 1 31 Dallas Cowboys Travis Frederick † C 2 35 Philadelphia Eagles Zach Ertz † TE 2 36 Detroit Lions Darius Slay † CB 2 44 Carolina Panthers Kawann Short † DT 2 48 Pittsburgh Steelers Le'Veon Bell † RB 2 52 New England Patriots Jamie Collins † LB 2 61 Green Bay Packers Eddie Lacy † RB 3 63 Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce † TE 3 65 Detroit Lions Larry Warford † G 3 69 Arizona Cardinals Tyrann Mathieu † CB 3 75 New Orleans Saints Terron Armstead † OT 3 76 San Diego Chargers Keenan Allen † WR 3 85 Washington Redskins Jordan Reed † TE 4 109 Green Bay Packers David Bakhtiari † OT 4* 130 Baltimore Ravens Kyle Juszczyk † FB 5 159 Green Bay Packers Micah Hyde † CB 6 181 Oakland Raiders Latavius Murray † RB
  7. Of course, I believe in finding truth above winning an argument. I did a quick google search of 'scatter plot of pro-bowlers vs. pick position' and quickly stumbled upon the below: Link - https://www.derp/2018/5/16/17359772/what-draft-position-tells-us-finding-pro-bowlers-regular-contributors I remain open to being convinced, though, that the game had any real meaning. Our 'collateral' to move up was reduced in the devaluation of our picks. That is, it is clear that picks in the top 100 are of significance. We now have less ability to achieve the maximum number of selections in that range.
  8. You get pie for the thought put out in this post, the structure and the TLDR section. However, your sample makes an assumption about the whole and it is erroneous. Are you generally willing to stake your claim that later picks are better ones? Or, for a lesser position, that the difference is not significant enough to really be important? Because I think that is a tough sell. There may be an argument that teams picking later pick better because they have better management... a causal relationship. However, the idea that there is no difference between the #9 and #16 pick, in any round, is in too much of a vacuum. In the end, meaningless games are meaningless. Earlier picks are worth more. Better players go earlier. and... Opinions are tough to change.
  9. +1 for a good scotch For IGO... doesn't matter, as much, the5 starters... as long as they stay healthy. The number 1 indication of our record will be the health of the oline. Quote me Sent using the amazing CarolinaHuddle mobile app
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