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Changing the Narrative, Vol. 1: #9 vs. #16

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11 minutes ago, Gucceland said:

All boils down to who is evaluating and making the pick...end of story.

Now can someone explain to me why the Falcunts and Deadskins are picking ahead of us, when we have the same record and lost to the Falcunts head to head twice and the Deadskins once?  Conference schedule for the Falcunts and Panthers were basically the same.  I may be dumb here, but this makes no sense.  How do we end up better than 2 teams that beat us with the same records?

A lot of merit in your question 

league set it up this way

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Just now, bull123 said:

A lot of merit in your question 

league set it up this way

It's obviously not arbitrary....what was the criteria for ranking the Deadskins and Falcunts behind us?  There has to be some sort of explanation...anyone on here know?

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Just now, Gucceland said:

It's obviously not arbitrary....what was the criteria for ranking the Deadskins and Falcunts behind us?  There has to be some sort of explanation...anyone on here know?

Strength of schedule 

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1 minute ago, Gucceland said:

It's obviously not arbitrary....what was the criteria for ranking the Deadskins and Falcunts behind us?  There has to be some sort of explanation...anyone on here know?

SOS

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5 minutes ago, bull123 said:

You made your point

picking 9th is better than 16th

i never want to see our team  tank a game

now go away 

 

Meant this to go to OP

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3 minutes ago, bull123 said:

Strength of schedule 

Packers and Cardinals are not better than Seahawks and Lions.  The Falcunts won head to head twice and played two layup games against a weak Packers team and the worst team in the league Cardinals.  The Seahawks are in the playoffs and the Lions had some great wins this year.  Otherwise, the Falcunts and Panthers played the same teams...Now I'm more confused.  Crap!

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There really shouldnt be this much angst over beating the mf Saints and dropping a few draft spots.  There will be an impact player available at 16, and as much as I dislike Hurney, his history does suggest he will pick one.

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Picking at 16 only hurts if the guy you really want and need will not be there at 16, such as a QB.  However it's very possible that our target is DE/DT and a guy we believe is just as good as the guy that goes at 9 will be available at 16.  This allows us to save 6-7m in salary over 4 years.  

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16 minutes ago, bull123 said:

Strength of schedule 

If the Deadskins, Falcunts and Panthers were all tied for the last playoff spot with the same record....who gets the wildcard spot?  I honestly don't know the answer...would it be head to head or SOS?

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1 minute ago, Gucceland said:

If the Deadskins, Falcunts and Panthers were all tied for the last playoff spot with the same record....who gets the wildcard spot?  I honestly don't know the answer...would it be head to head or SOS?

Just googled this one....Falcunts are ahead of us in the conference...but ranked behind us in the draft....this is some ignorant poo.

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58 minutes ago, Gucceland said:

Packers and Cardinals are not better than Seahawks and Lions.  The Falcunts won head to head twice and played two layup games against a weak Packers team and the worst team in the league Cardinals.  The Seahawks are in the playoffs and the Lions had some great wins this year.  Otherwise, the Falcunts and Panthers played the same teams...Now I'm more confused.  Crap!

Add up number of wins for each opponent. Since we play division twice, add their total wins twice. Tie counts as a half. Do the same for whichever team with the same record. Lower total picks first. 

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5 hours ago, stbugs said:

We really did get unlucky.

Yeah. There are so many variables. A 63 yard FG had as much to do with it as beating the Saints.

 

And the SOS is a maze of crap really. They should use the same tiebreakers they use for standings. SOS can figure in if more sensible comparisons are exhausted.

 

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5 hours ago, raz said:

anyone that thinks picking at 16 is better than picking at 9 is an idiot.   i mean holy god.   how are our school systems this bad.  it doesn't matter how you try to explain it.  you're an idiot

Don't think anybody is saying that picking 16 is better than picking at 9, just that, because of the uncertainties of the draft process, the gap isn't nearly what some here seem to think. It's just too hard to judge what college players are going to do in the pros. Lots of can't-miss prospects miss badly. Bust rate is 50% throughout the 1st round.

So, tell me, if draft position is so important, why did none of the non-playoff teams tank  in the 17th week? Panthers didn't Falcons didn't, cost them both 7 or so draft slots.

Lions didn't, Giants didn't, Bucs didn't, Cards didn't, Browns didn't, Bills didn't-some of them didn't win, but they were playing hard.

Miami lost to Buffalo, but they're 2-6 last 8 games in Buffalo, GB lost Rodgers to concussion early, others were playing better teams.

If losing the game makes so much sense, why didn't any team try to lose the last game?

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54 minutes ago, stratocatter said:

Yeah. There are so many variables. A 63 yard FG had as much to do with it as beating the Saints.

 

And the SOS is a maze of crap really. They should use the same tiebreakers they use for standings. SOS can figure in if more sensible comparisons are exhausted.

 

SOS makes sense. The standings/playoff tiebreakers are about finding the best teams in a tie. For the draft, it’s about finding the worst teams to put them worst to first. SOS makes sense because one could surmise that an 8-8 team with a .550 SOS is likely better than an 8-8 team with a .450 SOS.

We just got unlucky because 7-9 might have been the worst draft slot to record because of the slew of 6 loss teams and being last in the 4 7-9 teams. Unlucky.

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3 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Add up number of wins for each opponent. Since we play division twice, add their total wins twice. Tie counts as a half. Do the same for whichever team with the same record. Lower total picks first. 

Falcons had 4 (2 against the Panthers) Division wins to the Panthers 2.  Both teams played the exact same opponents with the exception of the Packers (6 wins 1 tie) and Cardinals (3 wins) / Lions (6 wins and beat Packers twice) and the Seahawks (10 wins and beat Cardinals/Packers).  So, with that math, the Panthers clearly had the harder SOS and should be picking ahead of the Falcons.  It really makes no sense.  

I haven't looked far enough into the Redskins, but I believe that if the totals were added there, the Panthers have the harder schedule based on playing the Saints twice, Baltimore, Seahawks and Eagles.  

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