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MHS831

Draftng a QB now could be a big mistake

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I am increasingly of the mindset that if we are going into full rebuild mode, we need to trade Cam, build the OL and defense. We live in an era of instant gratification.  If any of you do not believe that I mean you, how many of you get impatient when your internet slows down a bit?  When it takes a whole minute to heat a hot pocket in the microwave?  When an order on Amazon takes over 3 days to arrive?  How often have you been wrong when you predict things?  So when you reply to this thread, do so with some humility and self-awareness.  Any "know-it-all" replies are probably overcompensation for personal equipment issues--we understand. Your best bet is probably a hotline, not a football discussion board. So if you think you are certain about the QB position in Carolina, you are probably not the expert you think you are.  Do I know?  Nope. I like my personal equipment situation and have come to terms with my ignorance.  But I know this:

Throughout NFL history, it has been proven that a good QB needs a few things in order to be successful:  A good OL, good WRs, a solid defense, and experience.  Inexperienced QBs that are forced to play catch up from behind bad lines, as is the case for QBs that have to play on bad teams, face incredibly difficult odds.  The defense pins their ears back, forgetting the run.  The OL ducks and whiffs.  The time to get the ball out is decreased, increasing the speed of the game.  They face more blitzes and stunts.  A good DC knows how to go in for the kill.   The best QBs in that situation will fold. 

So just how bad has Kyle Allen been during his first 15 starts as a big league QB.  He had 1 game vs. New Orleans scrubs and he played with a lead—with a better OL than DL that played, he was good, and beat the Saints easily.  This season, he came in vs. some teams early in the season and we led most of the games; he won 4 in a row—something neither of the QBs below managed to do.  When the D started to struggle horribly vs. the run, that shortened the number of possessions for him and he had to play behind a bad OL from behind—the recipe for disaster for any inexperienced NFL QB. 

Ask yourself this question with honesty: Would you have booed the following QBs and demanded their benching?:

  • In his first 16 games after being pressed into starting duty Quarterback A completed 56.7 % of his passes and had 28 interceptions vs. 24 TDs.  His QB record was 3-13.
  • In his first 10 games after being pressed into starting duty Quarterback B  completed 47.5% of his passes and had 14 interceptions vs. 7 TDs.  His team was 4-6 with him as a starter.
  • In his first 12 games pressed into starting duty Quarterback C completed  38.1 % of his passes and had 24 interceptions vs. 6 TDs. He appeared in 12 games, starting 8.  His QB record was 3-5.
  • In his first 15 games after being pressed into starting duty Quarterback D completed 62.7 % of his passes and had 16 interceptions vs. 18 TDs. His QB record was 6-7.

So just how bad has Kyle Allen been during his first 15 starts as a big league QB?  He had 1 game vs. New Orleans scrubs and he played with a lead—with a better OL than DL that played, he was good, and beat the Saints easily.  This season, he came in vs. some teams early in the season and we led most of the games; he won 4 in a row—something neither of the QBs below managed to do.  When the D started to struggle horribly vs. the run, that shortened the number of possessions for him and he had to play behind a bad OL from behind—the recipe for disaster for any inexperienced NFL QB. 

The QBs above were forced to play under the same circumstances during the debuts to their careers.  They were booed.  People screamed for them to be benched.  One of them is Kyle Allen, the others are in the Hall of Fame.  QB A is Peyton Manning, QB B is John Elway, and QB C is Terry Bradshaw.  Allen is QB D.

This is not to say Allen is a Hall of Famer, but it is to say 2 things.  If we do not draft a QB this year and build the OL, we see what we really have in 2 young QBs.  We were so bad up front and on D, any young QB would have sucked.  If we bring in a rookie first round draft pick and put him behind our OL and he is supported by this defense, it is likely that we do not improve our QB situation much, statistically.  So why bother with a QB this year.  (This is assuming Cam is gone; if Cam plays, we do not learn what we have behind him but we instantly improve with better DTs and OL.  Therefore, Cam does not seem to work into the long term plan, but would improve us next year.—if we keep him for a year and let him walk, then we are back in the same situation at QB—we would not know much about Grier and Allen and we would be looking for a rookie to save the day.  It will be interesting to see what they do.

 

Edited by MHS831
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4 minutes ago, Sean Payton's Vicodin said:

Pick needs to be a lineman or Okudah if he drops. Okudah will be a HOF CB.

I really like Okudah along with 2 of the top lineman. 

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4 minutes ago, Sean Payton's Vicodin said:

Pick needs yo be a lineman or Okudah if he drops. Okudah will be a HOF CB.

And I think Jeudy would make our WR corps scary good.  But between the two, Okudah all day.  I do not see us signing Bradberry--i am in the minority, but if he was serious about the money, I have to rebuild there too. 

If you like Okudah the player as much as I do, you will love the person even more: https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/jeff-okudah-ohio-state-football

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Sean Payton's Vicodin said:

Yeah. Tua will bust because he's a glass cannon. Herbert is a poor mans Jay Cutler.  No mas por favor.

I am hoping all 3 QBs are gone before we pick.  Here is to hoping Bridgewater does not step in and take away a need in Miami or San Diego.

Rivers leaving SD was huge for us in the draft.  If that causes them to take Herbert, for example, we should get Okudah, Thomas, Brown, Espenesa (my Panther dark horse pick), or Jeudy. 

Edited by MHS831
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7 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

And I think Jeudy would make our WR corps scary good.  But between the two, Okudah all day.  I do not see us signing Bradberry--i am in the minority, but if he was serious about the money, I have to rebuild there too. 

If you like Okudah the player as much as I do, you will love the person even more: https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/jeff-okudah-ohio-state-football

 

 

Yeah I read that letter yesterday and was blown away by it. Even though I consider the lines our two most pressing issues, if Okudah is available and we take him I’ll be thrilled. I don’t see how you could get a better guy in your locker room.  Seems like the young man is everything Rhule preaches. That would be a guy you could build your program around long term.

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Im all about building from the trenches. I don't believe we should or will reach for a QB in round 1. Id he happy with all the guys that have been mentioned in the thread. 

Now,  if we traded down and added a pick in the 2nd round,  i might be open to a QB pick then.

Example,  trade down and get Kinlaw. 2nd round picks Eason if available and an offensive line. i would be ok with this scenario. 

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Well you bring Cam back, he’s a top 10 when he’s healthy and an MVP when he’s 100%.

if we can get busy with the right draft picks and free agents who knows what happens this year.

if the team believes we are 3-4 year from a solid run then you definitely trade him now.

and you would have to use what you get from trading him for us to trade up. 

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  Putting Kyle Allen out there as the choice at starter is the quickest path to tanking. Don’t need stats with no context to change what was easily seen. 

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Every team in the NFL has either a top 10 QB, a guy they think can be a top 10 QB, or they're looking for one. You don't have the luxury of choosing when you you land that guy, you have to jump on it when the opportunity presents itself.

Me personally? I hope we stick with Cam.

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Without good blocking and tackling, what kind of success can you have as a football team? It starts there. Do that at a high level and the machine is greased properly.

 

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I agree, drafting a QB right now is not our best move.  The Allen debate aside and whether Cam is a Panther next year or in 2021 does not alter that equation much.  We have too many holes in our roster to make drafting a QB a priority.

That I have seen before, and is often linked to teams approaching every year like they are “only a couple of players away.”  When that assumption is in error, you eventually wind up with a roster held together with duct tape and bailing wire….which I think is largely where we are today.  We did that last year because Rivera and Hurney approached it as a "put up or get out" year.  Rivera was correct in that assumption, and before the dust settles Hurney may have been, too.  But I think we have approached every season after 2015 with that same assumption, and continuing that in 2020 will only make matters worse.

I don’t think Allen was as good as he looked when he looked good, nor as bad as he looked when looked bad.  The truth is, I don’t think we honestly know what any of our three QBs currently on the depth chart are anymore.  For different reasons, we have three question marks.

I also think we are in a major overhaul.  There are people here thinking we are not, but the are basing that on everybody on our roster performing like they did 3, 4, or 5 years ago.  Player careers generally don’t work like that.  The cumulative effect of age and injuries (major or not) do not often allow a player to roll back the hands of time, let alone 5, 10, or 15 players to do so at once. 

What I want to see this offseason is that we get younger overall and stronger in the trenches.  I’m not expecting our OL to become “the Hogs” in one offseason, nor or DL to be mentioned with the Steel Curtain, Fearsome Foursome, or Purple People Eaters.  This is a process.

Like LinvilleGorge, I hope we stick with Cam.  I understand fully why we might not, and even if we do, he may not be around when the overhaul is complete.  His value in a trade is not exactly at its peak.  Short of the Raiders or somebody similar ponying up something too good to pass up, the cost of seeing what he has next year is rather small.  That said, it may not be in his best interest to be back here if we don’t do something to address pass protection that has been about as effective as a screen door in a submarine. 

But, that is also precisely why I think drafting a QB this year and expecting to plug him in right away is a mistake.

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It would be a reach and a desperation move. This isn't a good QB class at all.

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Allen and Grier are not franchise quarterbacks.

If you want to win you need a QB and in that instance unfortunately you throw crap at the wall until something sticks unless you intend on gambling with signing one to a big contract in free agency. The Panthers are not and will not be the only team desperate for a quarterback. And when we do find ours he will be paid big if he is any good. That's the way of the NFL.

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