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Cary Kollins

Teddy Bridgewater vs. Joe Burrow scouting report

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You are looking at the analysis of Bridgewater as a draftee. We now have a few years of actual NFL experience to look at with Bridgewater. His career passer rating (not QBR) is 88.35. By way of comparison, that rating would have placed Bridgewater about 23rd in the NFL last season behind Phillip Rivers and Jacoby Brissett. He also has one of the lowest yards per pass statistics in the NFL and fairly consistently so. In other words, much of the analysis has proved correct in that he has very good accuracy but a relatively weak arm in terms of depth and velocity. 

I believe he does have a good football IQ and accuracy. What he has proven to not have is great arm talent and maneuverability or elusiveness in or out of the pocket, as well as  bit of scary injury history. In short, I think it is fair to say that based on past NFL performance, Bridgewater has a fairly low ceiling and stable floor. He provides consistency and not much dynamism. Furthermore, one of the more consistent complements that has been given to Bridgewater is the he is careful with the ball. That is really not borne out by his overall statistics. In his career, Bridgewater was thrown 38 TDs against 25 interceptions and most TDs that he has thrown in a season is 14. This is not exactly great.

I know I have been a real buzzkill when it comes to this signing. However, I think when you analyze his past performance with teams that had good to very good defenses and extrapolate that performance to a Panthers team with a dearth of defensive talent you get a bit of a nightmare where your best case scenario becomes the worst case scenario of mediocrity.

Do I think Bridgewater can win more games than Allen? Yes, marginally so. But I think that is actually a bad thing in that it costs you draft capital and cap resources next year.

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10 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

Highlights a lot of the things I liked about Bridgewater when he was up for drafting.

My concern at the time was whether his "thin frame" could handle an NFL pounding. That's proven to be a valid concern but one that I hope is a thing of the past.

His only injury was a one off knee injury in training camp. Has nothing at all to do with “thin frame.”

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On 4/5/2020 at 9:29 PM, MHS831 said:

If we wanted a QB in the draft, we might have to move up and take the third best.  Signing Bridgewater is smart.  Now we can draft a qb next year or the year after.

What about the Panthers moves have you so confident that the Panthers are still looking for their long-term QB?  When will the denial end and your eyes and ears from everyone in the Panthers organization and the contract delivered will make you accept that Teddy Bridgewater is who they intend 100% to be THE quarterback and will be given every chance possible to succeed as such?

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18 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

Same here, but it actually is a possibility.

Remember, everybody thought Chip Kelly and Steve Spurrier were gonna set the league on fire too.

 

He has to be able to adjust quickly because NFL defenses will adjust very quickly. 

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I'm not high on either but at least we went the route that has us looking again next year and until we find a franchise QB. Borrow being the top pick is the true cautionary tale for hope next years QB class will be better.

Dink and dunk is such a boring but effective system with a sufficient defense. The Saints do it but they also open it up and the Pat's have made a killing off of it.

I will be glad when we are not tied to Borrow for 4 years. Two of Ted is more than enough for me.

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10 hours ago, FakePlasticTrees said:

You are looking at the analysis of Bridgewater as a draftee. We now have a few years of actual NFL experience to look at with Bridgewater. His career passer rating (not QBR) is 88.35. By way of comparison, that rating would have placed Bridgewater about 23rd in the NFL last season behind Phillip Rivers and Jacoby Brissett. He also has one of the lowest yards per pass statistics in the NFL and fairly consistently so. In other words, much of the analysis has proved correct in that he has very good accuracy but a relatively weak arm in terms of depth and velocity. 

I believe he does have a good football IQ and accuracy. What he has proven to not have is great arm talent and maneuverability or elusiveness in or out of the pocket, as well as  bit of scary injury history. In short, I think it is fair to say that based on past NFL performance, Bridgewater has a fairly low ceiling and stable floor. He provides consistency and not much dynamism. Furthermore, one of the more consistent complements that has been given to Bridgewater is the he is careful with the ball. That is really not borne out by his overall statistics. In his career, Bridgewater was thrown 38 TDs against 25 interceptions and most TDs that he has thrown in a season is 14. This is not exactly great.

I know I have been a real buzzkill when it comes to this signing. However, I think when you analyze his past performance with teams that had good to very good defenses and extrapolate that performance to a Panthers team with a dearth of defensive talent you get a bit of a nightmare where your best case scenario becomes the worst case scenario of mediocrity.

Do I think Bridgewater can win more games than Allen? Yes, marginally so. But I think that is actually a bad thing in that it costs you draft capital and cap resources next year.

I can't argue with you that Teddy has not exactly set the NFL on fire since 2014, but I do feel that he is a safe bet, and a significant upgrade over Allen. Not really a ringing endorsement, I know. I know that I am wearing big, rose-colored glasses, but I'm choosing to believe that he'll thrive in a new system, and that our O-line is better than most of us think that it is.

Besides, our Defense has way too many holes to focus my concern on offense.

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I mean to be fair to Teddy, he didn't set the world on fire after his injury because he was a backup for 3 years, and only got significant playing time as a starter last year. In that time he was the 11th best QB in the league over the stretch of games.

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13 hours ago, FakePlasticTrees said:

You are looking at the analysis of Bridgewater as a draftee. We now have a few years of actual NFL experience to look at with Bridgewater. His career passer rating (not QBR) is 88.35. By way of comparison, that rating would have placed Bridgewater about 23rd in the NFL last season behind Phillip Rivers and Jacoby Brissett. He also has one of the lowest yards per pass statistics in the NFL and fairly consistently so. In other words, much of the analysis has proved correct in that he has very good accuracy but a relatively weak arm in terms of depth and velocity. 

I believe he does have a good football IQ and accuracy. What he has proven to not have is great arm talent and maneuverability or elusiveness in or out of the pocket, as well as  bit of scary injury history. In short, I think it is fair to say that based on past NFL performance, Bridgewater has a fairly low ceiling and stable floor. He provides consistency and not much dynamism. Furthermore, one of the more consistent complements that has been given to Bridgewater is the he is careful with the ball. That is really not borne out by his overall statistics. In his career, Bridgewater was thrown 38 TDs against 25 interceptions and most TDs that he has thrown in a season is 14. This is not exactly great.

I know I have been a real buzzkill when it comes to this signing. However, I think when you analyze his past performance with teams that had good to very good defenses and extrapolate that performance to a Panthers team with a dearth of defensive talent you get a bit of a nightmare where your best case scenario becomes the worst case scenario of mediocrity.

Do I think Bridgewater can win more games than Allen? Yes, marginally so. But I think that is actually a bad thing in that it costs you draft capital and cap resources next year.

HE'S A THIRD YEAR QUARTERBACK!!!  stop saying you have a large body of work to judge him by you DON'T.  using stats from 5 years ago his last full season as some kind of gauge is ridiculous.  Do you judge Derek Carr by his first 2 years or what he's done since?  answer that.   do you judge Blake Bortles by his first 2 years or what he's done since.  It is complete folly to gauge a football player's prospects in 2020 by what they did in 2014.  its lunacy.  He missed multiple seasons with injury not because of performance.  He didn't play for most of the past FOUR YEARS.  stop judging him by 2014 and 2015 stats.  You want to judge him, judge him by his THIRD YEAR which only lasted 5 games in 2019, and he went 5-0 against multiple playoff teams ON THE ROAD, and won over everyone he played with.  and then add in the rust element and he STILL performed at that high level.  Just understand you're not getting some 6 year journeyman, you're getting a 3-4th year guy who's only been able to play one full season so far, and his return so far is a 5-0 monster run and in 2020 he's going to be better.

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He's on his 3rd team in six seasons. We are quite literally getting a 6 year journeyman.

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For anyone who believes getting a top qb draft pick is the answer, it's risky at best.  Here is a list of the qbs picked in the top 10 in the last 10 years.  It includes exactly ONE who has won a Super Bowl:

Top 10 QBs Drafted in past 10 years (since 2009)

Matthew Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Sam Bradford

Cam Newton

Jake Locker

Blaine Gabbert

Andrew Luck

RG III

Ryan Tannehill

Blake Bortles

Jameis Winston

Marcus Mariota

Jared Goff

Carson Wentz

Mitch Trubisky

Patrick Mahomes

Baker Mayfield

Sam Darnold

Josh Allen

Josh Rosen

Kyler Murray

Daniel Jones

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9 minutes ago, sry said:

For anyone who believes getting a top qb draft pick is the answer, it's risky at best.  Here is a list of the qbs picked in the top 10 in the last 10 years.  It includes exactly ONE who has won a Super Bowl:

Top 10 QBs Drafted in past 10 years (since 2009)

Matthew Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Sam Bradford

Cam Newton

Jake Locker

Blaine Gabbert

Andrew Luck

RG III

Ryan Tannehill

Blake Bortles

Jameis Winston

Marcus Mariota

Jared Goff

Carson Wentz

Mitch Trubisky

Patrick Mahomes

Baker Mayfield

Sam Darnold

Josh Allen

Josh Rosen

Kyler Murray

Daniel Jones

Yep, it's risky. Trying to project prospects from one level to the next is an inexact science at best.

It's probably still not as risky as counting on a guy on his third team in six seasons to be the answer.

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Actually his fourth team...Vikings, Jets, Saints, and Panthers.  But, truly he has only had about 2 1/2 seasons as a starter.  The injury totally disrupted his career.  The 2016 preseason indicated that he was about to make a third year jump, but that was cut off the day after the last preseason game.

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45 minutes ago, Teddy Time said:

HE'S A THIRD YEAR QUARTERBACK!!!  stop saying you have a large body of work to judge him by you DON'T.  using stats from 5 years ago his last full season as some kind of gauge is ridiculous.  Do you judge Derek Carr by his first 2 years or what he's done since?  answer that.   do you judge Blake Bortles by his first 2 years or what he's done since.  It is complete folly to gauge a football player's prospects in 2020 by what they did in 2014.  its lunacy.  He missed multiple seasons with injury not because of performance.  He didn't play for most of the past FOUR YEARS.  stop judging him by 2014 and 2015 stats.  You want to judge him, judge him by his THIRD YEAR which only lasted 5 games in 2019, and he went 5-0 against multiple playoff teams ON THE ROAD, and won over everyone he played with.  and then add in the rust element and he STILL performed at that high level.  Just understand you're not getting some 6 year journeyman, you're getting a 3-4th year guy who's only been able to play one full season so far, and his return so far is a 5-0 monster run and in 2020 he's going to be better.

His career stats and talents scream back-up QB. I think your name gives away your bias. I have no such bias. At the end of the day, I would love for your optimism to be rewarded.

I have my doubts based on the totality of his past results.

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11 minutes ago, sry said:

Actually his fourth team...Vikings, Jets, Saints, and Panthers.  But, truly he has only had about 2 1/2 seasons as a starter.  The injury totally disrupted his career.  The 2016 preseason indicated that he was about to make a third year jump, but that was cut off the day after the last preseason game.

Ouch. I forgot about that cup of coffee with the Jets.

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14 hours ago, FakePlasticTrees said:

You are looking at the analysis of Bridgewater as a draftee. We now have a few years of actual NFL experience to look at with Bridgewater. His career passer rating (not QBR) is 88.35. By way of comparison, that rating would have placed Bridgewater about 23rd in the NFL last season behind Phillip Rivers and Jacoby Brissett. He also has one of the lowest yards per pass statistics in the NFL and fairly consistently so. In other words, much of the analysis has proved correct in that he has very good accuracy but a relatively weak arm in terms of depth and velocity. 

I believe he does have a good football IQ and accuracy. What he has proven to not have is great arm talent and maneuverability or elusiveness in or out of the pocket, as well as  bit of scary injury history. In short, I think it is fair to say that based on past NFL performance, Bridgewater has a fairly low ceiling and stable floor. He provides consistency and not much dynamism. Furthermore, one of the more consistent complements that has been given to Bridgewater is the he is careful with the ball. That is really not borne out by his overall statistics. In his career, Bridgewater was thrown 38 TDs against 25 interceptions and most TDs that he has thrown in a season is 14. This is not exactly great.

I know I have been a real buzzkill when it comes to this signing. However, I think when you analyze his past performance with teams that had good to very good defenses and extrapolate that performance to a Panthers team with a dearth of defensive talent you get a bit of a nightmare where your best case scenario becomes the worst case scenario of mediocrity.

Do I think Bridgewater can win more games than Allen? Yes, marginally so. But I think that is actually a bad thing in that it costs you draft capital and cap resources next year.

Why compare a career for Teddy vs a single year for everyone else? Teddy last year had a 99 rating in the offense we brought him in to play.

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