AU-panther

I've been saying it for awhile, people need to use common sense here. At the very least you would have to assume at least one or both of the Dolphins or Jets would be willing to give up 3 first. That should be everyone starting point for trying to come up with a better offer. The Jets 1st round pick by itself is equal to our next 3 1st round picks, so we would have to offer two players to cancel out the Jets next two 1st they are offering. Jets have 5 1st round picks the next three years (two this year), the dolphins have 4 over the next 3 (two this year), they also have Tua that could probably trade for a late 1st. Both teams could easily offer 3 first round picks and still have some left, too me, it would be an easy decision for them to make. I have to believe that offer will be on the table so as a Panther fan I need to come up with a better offer.

you trade a contract, not the player 17m for 2021, 20m for 2022, zero guaranteed? maybe a team later in the first round that misses out on drafting a player? Patriots? Colts? WFT? I'm trying to be positive here

Feels like the owner and HC are leaning towards the current QB not being the answer. Deciding you are going to do something is the getting out of the gate, the next part is deciding how you are going to try and run and the race, and that is somewhat fluid.

totally agree, and next years class by some accounts is weak. A team like Atlanta, for example, might would prefer to draft a QB next year but this might year might be a better option based on draft position and QB availability. Just seems like a perfect storm this year.

Totally agree, trying to force something to work would be the worst thing we could do.

I'm usually a fan of looking at history to predict the future, but this year seems different. First of all its a really good class of QBs, easily better than most years and the there does seem to be more teams in the QB market. There is a changing of the old guard, a lot of vet QBs that might get replaced soon. Teams like Pittsburg, Detroit, and New England, even Atlanta, they could draft someone and let them sit for a few years. You always have a handful of bad teams looking for QBs but this year there are some good franchises who are looking who normally don't. Also I think KC and Mahomes might be influencing some teams, maybe not building around an average QB is the best model. Teams might be looking to catch lightning in a bottle.

They have to bare some of that responsibility. It was either your idea or you allowed it. Last year should have been a rebuild year, period. Anyone who thought Teddy was a good use of resources was wrong, and anyone who allowed it was also wrong. At the very least it was a 3rd rounder and a $40m dollar mistake. When its all said it done you could probably make an argument it was even more. Paying a guy and expecting him to be anything more than what he has consistently shown in the recent past is just gambling and wishful thinking. Its how you end up with Matt Kalil contracts, and now Teddy.

The problem with us is we don't guarantee them a QB. They might only like 2 QBs in he draft so 8 they aren't guaranteed to get a replacement for Watson. If the Dolphins or Jets are interested they can easily make better offers than us because of having the 2nd and 3rd pick this year. Whether or not Watson wants to go there, that's a different story but all things equal that #2 pick by itself is probably more valuable than our next three 1st round picks. Jets 2021 1st + 2022 1st > Miami's 2021 1st + 2022 1st >>>>> Panthers 2021 1st + 2022 1st + 2023 1st or CMC Unless we want to include several of our young players its going to be hard for us to compete with either of those teams on draft picks alone. Also I think some might be overvaluing CMC, not every GM is a fan of a RB on a bad contract. Burns, Brown, and Moore also might be more enticing to some GMS, even Chinn might be valued as much. Their cap space isn't the best, good players on rookie deals would be more enticing.

Doh They take Darnold in the trade, don't need to draft a QB? I can't even say it with a straight face. Damn I hate it when I say something stupid, I don't see how half of this board lives with themselves doing it all the time. Got ahead of myself trying to be positive. Ok, Dolphins stick with Tua, Jets or Texans take whoever of Fields/Wilson we like the least?

If we don't get Watson we should really be hoping that the Jets do. One less team to draft a QB in front of us. Best case for us Jets get Watson, Miami decides to give Tua one more year.

What I think it takes or what I would offer? I would offer 2021 1st and 2nd, 2022 1st, CMC What I think it would take? 2021 1st, 2022 1st, 2023 1st, CMC and Burns or Brown

but if we spend 3 1st round picks to find a rookie QB we save around $100m over the life of that rookie contract. Great QB on a rookie deal > than a great QB on their second deal The QB on the second deal is just usually a safer pick because you know what he can do. Every scenario we can come up with is a gamble, the greatest reward though, is finding a franchise QB in the draft.

Very good chance that the Texans would prefer to draft a QB at 3, in which case Tua is redundant. They might prefer an extra 1st over Tua but then Miami wouldn't really need Tua either if they get Watson.

People need to factor in the cap cost also. Lets assume its takes 3 1st and CMC. The real question is: Watson or Rookie QB (whoever you draft at 8 ) + 2 future 1st round picks + CMC + $100m in cap space over 5 years. $100m is roughly the difference in cap cost between Watson for 5 years and anyone we pick. $100m will help a lot in filling out a roster. Even if you are wrong about the QB this year you still have 2 more 1st to use on future QBs. A franchise QB on a rookie deal is easily the best deal in all of the NFL. Drafting a QB is risky, but if you give up that much for an established QB you are reducing your margin of error on what draft picks you do have and also putting a lot of pressure on any free agent dollars you spend because they will be limited.

This^ This again^, but I think you have to give them 2-3 years, QBs take time to develop. Draft a guy, put him in a position to be succesffull (good coaching and good teamates) and give him time. If he doesn't work out you do it again. Everyone wants to go cheap (draft a guy later) or look for the sure thing (sign a vet), any vet that is easily available is so because he isn't that great. This is how people should look at these different scenarios. These moves don't happen in a vacuum. Lets assume you give up a second for Stafford and 3 1st and a player for Watson. Watson + 2nd or Stafford + three 1st and CMC Watson or Lance + CMC + three 1st and + $100m in cap space over 5 years (5 year cost difference between the two) Stafford or Lance +2nd + $38m in cap space over 2 years (2 year difference between the 2)

Take those players that have made it from later rounds and divide by the number of players drafted. Do the same for the first round. Your chances are exponentially higher in the first.

Any trade offer that you would be happy with isn’t enough, add to it until you start question it, that’s when it starts get realistic

out of curiosity what was the standards for "making it"? I would have thought it was even less for both categories.

Everyone loves to point out that a lot of QBs in the first don't work out but you also need to look at all of the QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 and see how many times they work out. The first round doesn't guarantee you that you are going to right about the QB you draft but drafting one after the first almost guarantees you are going to be wrong.

Maybe I'm being pessimistic but to me someone like the Jets would quickly offer their 1st this year plus their next two 1st, which would be a way better deal, same with Miami. The #2 pick from the Jets is probably worth everything you are talking about offering by itself. If they don't want to draft QB2 at pick 2 they can easily flip it for at least 2 first round picks.

But you said he had all of this leverage, if he really had all of this leverage he would make sure whatever team he goes to wouldn't have to give up much so he could be on a better team. Wouldn't matter how many team were actually bidding. If he was really a free agent so to speak like a lot of you think they wouldn't give up much at all.

I could see it happening, and there is a good chance he will sign for less and play well. The "next" team always seems to get the good deal.

If you think he has that much leverage what do you honestly think he gets traded for and to who?

He wouldn't have the remainder of his career. They own his rights, even if he retires. The $10.5m this year the could lose, is actually his first "big" year of salary. The other years were lower amounts from his rookie contract. The majority of money he has all ready received was from his signing bonus, of which they could go after and take back.

Every Watson thread has people throwing out crazy offers. Don't get me wrong, I would love to trade Teddy and Shaq for Watson also , but we need to be somewhat realistic, so lets look at some former trades for big name players. RG3 - three 1st and a 2nd Khalil Mack - two 1st, 3rd, and a 6th for Mack and a 2nd Jeremy Tunsil - two 1st, a 2nd for Tunsil and a WR (stills) Jaylen Ramsey - two 1st and a 4th Jamal Adams - two 1st, a 3rd, a player for Adams and a 4th So a LT, CB, Edge, and Safety all fetched at least two 1st round picks, an unproven QB fetched three 1st round picks, so what does a top 5 QB entering his prime fetch? Would you trade any combination of 2 of the players above for Watson? most people would Personally I think its going to take some combination of 5 (1st round picks and/or young players) to make it work. If a team has a really high draft pick such as the Dolphins or Jets it might be less. You have to remember that the Jets #2 pick is like 3 first round picks of other teams. It would cost us that much to move up from 8, let alone teams that have later draft picks. They can easily flip that pick for more picks or draft a QB of the future. Best guess for us, I'm thinking our next three #1s plus some combination of two of CMC/Burns/Brown/Chinn. Also before someone starts talking about his no trade clause, its not going to have the impact that some think. He stands to lose a lot of money if he refuses to play.