tukafan21

You're right, good teams don't worry about where they are drafting. The problem with that... WE ARE NOT A GOOD TEAM We have a solid OL, we have a good RB in Hubbard, we have an elite DT in Brown, and we have a possibly elite CB in Horn if he can continue to stay healthy. Outside of those players, right now, who do you see on this roster that has a shot at being a Pro Bowl caliber player in the next few years? This roster is so void of high end talent that saying things like "good teams don't worry about where they are drafting" is one of the more asinine statements I've heard on here in a while.

If you think the Lions are who they are today solely because of Dan Campbell, then you just don't get it. Don't get me wrong, he's a huge part of it, but........... Amon Ra, Gibbs, Goff, Sewell, Ragnow, Hutchinson, Branch all off the top of my head are better than any player on our roster not named Derrick Brown (and some of them are better than DB anyways). And that's before you even talk about guys like Montgomery, LaPorta, Smith, Campbell, all of whom would be starting over players on our team right now as well (and there may be others too, I don't have their full roster memorized). Culture is great and all, and no, you can't win without it. But more important than culture is actually having the players you need to win, and we just don't have that right now, our roster is still a mess. If you don't think the franchise would be in a better place if we were picking 1 draft slot better in 2020 and 2021 and have gotten Herbert and Sewell in those drafts, then you're kidding yourself. We could have had an offense of Herbert, CMC, Moore, and one of the game's best LT's. But sure, that extra win in each of those seasons still give me all the good feels all these years later, who needs to have an offense with all those guys in their prime.

Again, how has winning late season games over the past 5 years or so helped change our culture and turned this franchise around? It hasn't, all it's done is hurt our draft position and caused us to possibly miss out on the players who actually would have helped turn things around. This same group of fans who are "anti tanking" because of "building culture" are the same ones who say it every year at this time. When are you going to realize that the best thing for the future is having the better draft picks to help build up your team? Better players > meaningless late season wins It's not even a matter of the specific players in this upcoming draft, it's a general principle.... If you are a franchise devoid of elite talent and won't be in a position to contend the following season, late season wins hurt more than they help. If you are a team on the rise, with a lot of quality pieces, that's when you want to win those late season games to help you build upon that the following season. We're the former, not the latter. I'm not against winning late season games, I'm against it when we're in the state our franchise is currently in. We are NOT contending next year, no matter how this offseason goes, it's just not going to happen, we still have far too many holes and not enough elite players. I point to the 2021 and 2022 Lions as the perfect example of this. Yes, the 2021 team had some late season wins, but they didn't hurt their draft positioning (key difference). Then the 2022 team, that had a lot of great young pieces, started off rough at 1-6, but then 8-2 to close out the season. They were then able to carry that over into the next season and made it to the NFC Championship. That's where you want to win those late season games, because they had the majority of the pieces in place already. That's just not us right now, this win isn't going to carry over into next season like it did with them. If you can't see the difference there, then that's a you problem, not a me problem. This win (and any others in the final few weeks) is NOT equal to the 2021 Lions late wins, as this is hurting our draft positioning and it didn't for them. Wins/Losses aren't in a vacuum, they're all relative to the rest of the league in that given season and how it affects the standings.

Having a playoff caliber team is fun. Being 3-11 and winning a meaningless game in December if a lost season is t fun, it’s pointless. What has been fun about us winning all these meaningless late season games over the last 5 years or so? We do it every year, where has it gotten us? Where is that winning culture everyone claims it leads to? Thats why I can’t understand people saying that stuff, as it clearly has lead to helping turn this franchise around when we do it EVERY SEASON. It’s not like we rarely do it. We literally have done it every season since the Cam years, we win late season games, hurt our draft position, miss out on elite players, and still suck the next year. So please, tell me why this season is any different?

Because they still ended up with the 2nd pick of the draft and then got bailed out when the Jags didn’t take the best pass rusher in the draft anyways. This win very well could end up costing us 4-6 spots in the draft depending how things close out. Those two things are not the same

I’d rather enjoy being a yearly contending team instead of enjoying meaningless late season wins in lost seasons, every single year. We do this all the time, lost season, win a couple late season games, hurt our draft position, miss out on the players we really would have wanted, and repeat. It’s how teams get stuck in NFL purgatory. Never bad enough to get the true elite prospects that can change your franchise and never good enough to contend for the playoffs. Have you really enjoyed the last 5 or so seasons? Does this one win really make you that happy to where it’s going to carry over to this point next year when we’re still not close to contending for the playoffs?

There is a 100% chance we’d have taken both of those guys had we been one pick earlier, we had no QB or LT in those seasons.

At that part of the draft, every pick you fall can be a MASSIVE difference maker. In 2021, picking 7th instead of 6th cost us Justin Herbert In 2022, picking 8th instead of 7th cost us Penei Sewell When winning meaningless games causes you to fall from say the 12th pick to the 15th, it’s not as big of a deal. But when a meaningless win could drop you from 4th to 7th, then it could cost you significantly.

It’s because they’re both coming back that I’d rather lose. Momentum from winning one game this late in a lost season doesn’t carry over. You need to close out with like 4-5 wins out of 5-6 games for that type of thing to carry over. All this win did was hurt our draft position, nothing else

Losing > winning at this point in a lost season Losing isn’t tanking, why is that such a hard concept for people to understand? Tanking is losing on purpose, which no team will ever try to do. But losing is better for the franchise. As a player/coach you want to win, as a fan, you should want what is best for the team, which is losing. Your joy of this win will be gone within a few days, it’s not going to make next season (or future seasons) any better when we’re drafting later because of this pointless win.

No idea who this guy is but this video was the first result on youtube for T-Mac's name and I thought it was a good short breakdown of him. Went over his hands and catch radius, and then touched on the speed discussion as well.

When his 2nd contract is kicking in, he's going to be a Top 5 WR type of guy I don't understand the "he looks slow" analysis either, outside of people just wanting every WR to have track star speed. No, he's not a speedster, he doesn't have Jefferson or Chase type of speed, but he's 5" taller than them, of course he's not going to be as fast as them. But he's plenty fast, I think he's going to run a sub 4.5 time at the combine. If you watch his highlights and think he looks slow, then you're not watching enough of them, he's constantly making defenders miss and running away from them off screens and crossing routes where he's often used. And he's not going to be Tyreek taking the top off the defense with his speed, but the deep ball is his specialty because of his ability to high point the ball and make plays over multiple DB's at once. His size and hands also allow his lack of elite speed/separation to not be a problem as the QB is able to keep the ball away from the defenders with his catch radius and his ability to block them out. This is where the Mike Evans comp comes from, as he's not some elite separator but it's never mattered, that's T-Mac's game. He can run every route there is, yes he may need to crips some of his cuts up, get a little quicker off the line, but every Junior in college still has things they need to work on. To think he won't improve on those things is crazy, it's not like he's a poor route runner, that's much harder to teach than for a player to build some quickness to give them even more of an advantage than they already have. I honestly think his floor is XL's ceiling, a low end WR 1, and that's if he doesn't improve at all, I think he's already that good of a WR right now.

Nobody is disrespecting Cam by saying it's Allen. Just as nobody is saying Cam didn't change the QB position to allow guys like Allen to be given a chance and then flourish. But I don't know how anyone can look at the stats between them and objectively say that Allen hasn't surpassed Cam in terms of being a better QB, even if he still needs a few more seasons to pass Cam's totals. Cam played 48 more games than Allen, which is almost 3 full seasons, but Allen is only 6,000 yards passing behind Cam, only 1,500 yards rushing behind Cam, and already only 11 rushing TDs behind him as well. Allen already has 2 more passing TDs than Cam and has 40 less INTs than Cam had (.77 per game to .83 per game in Allen's favor). Allen started his career out with a 53% and 59% completion percentages his first two seasons and hasn't been below 63.3% in the 5 years since then. Cam only has 4 seasons in his career above 60% and only 1 of those was above that 63.3% that Allen has been above for the last 5 years. (not to mention, that one season Cam had above Allen's number, was his one full season with CMC as the main RB, when he had literally 1/3rd of Cam's completed passes, mostly on screens of course which naturally would have boosted Cam's completion percentages) Yes, the Bills have done a better job at putting quality pieces around Allen than we did, but that still doesn't change that Allen has surpassed Cam as a QB at this point. And that's not a knock on Cam, he's still going to be in the HOF, he's still going to be my QB for ever. It's just appreciating what Allen has become and looking at it objectively.

I love Cam, he will always be MY Quarterback But the answer is Allen and at this point, it's frankly almost to the point where it isn't even a close debate. Cam still edges out Allen's running by a tad, but Allen's passing is already better than Cam's ever was. The reality is that over the last season or two, Allen is becoming the QB we all expected Cam to be. And for those using the Super Bowl appearance as why it's still Cam, then you're just fooling yourself because you want the answer to be Cam. Allen has been to the playoffs 5 times, 3 of them he lost to KC and Mahomes, each of them in seasons KC went to the SB themselves. If Mahomes wasn't Mahomes, Allen would have already been to a SB by now. Trying to knock Allen for that would be like saying Peyton wasn't as great as he was because of how many times he couldn't get past Brady in the playoffs. We all love Cam, but there isn't anything wrong with just being honest when comparing two great QB's who will both end up in Canton.

The main problem here though is that second part is what makes the first part incorrect. If Bryce is the guy next year in a sink or swim season, you NEED to get him a #1 WR, and the most likely path to that is drafting T-Mac, I honestly think he's our only chance at getting a #1 WR in this offseason. Hunter's main position is going to be a CB and we're going to be picking in the Top 10, higher than Burden is going to be drafted. Higgins isn't coming here unless we make him a Top 5 highest paid WR in the game, which would just be an asinine contract for him. After him, there are actually a few other decent WRs in the FA market this offseason, the problem is they are all older WRs past their prime who even if they have a year or two left in them as #1 WRs, they are signing with contenders, not us (like Diggs, Adams, Hopkins, Cooper). The closest option would be Godwin, but he's not an outside #1, he's a slot who is best as a #2 option, and coming off a bad injury. The only other option would be to try and trade for someone who's team doesn't want to give them a new contract, but any team like that is likely going to want a future 1st round pick for them (such as a DK Metcalf) like those trades in the past few years of AJ Brown and Tyreek, and our future 1sts need to be untouchable until we're settle on a QB. Yes, I know coming from me of all people, this seems like another T-Mac support post, but it's not, it's just pointing out the realities of him probably being the only legitimate option for us to acquire a #1 WR in this offseason.

It does But we also only have one player that I think has a realistic shot at being an All Pro next year, and that player is a DT in Brown. Taking a DT at 4 or 5 would be the most luxury pick a team could ever make given the holes we have. I'd just hope some team around the 10th pick would badly want a player there and we are able to get a good enough offer to make trading back worth it.

Yes, tankathon doesn't just include the teams you've played so far, they do your entire 17 game schedule. So who you still play doesn't change your SOS on there, just how all the teams on your schedule do each week. So if the Packers beat Seattle tonight, since the Jags played GB, their SOS will rise, no idea if it will be enough to give us the 4th pick back at the moment.

Because we don't see it with him, we see a system that was built for him to put up big stats like his dad intended to do, and we see a player with serious red flags outside of his actual on field abilities as well. Even if you think he will make it in the NFL, coming to a franchise as much of a mess as we are, is not how a player like him will succeed at the next level, it's only going to create problems. The Deion show is going to be wild in the NFL, our franchise isn't in a state to handle it properly (and that's ignoring that many don't see him as an elite prospect at the same time).

I just said this in another thread and it's still not a pro T-Mac post here either. But if XL and Coker are your Top 2 WRs heading into next year, that is a bottom 5 WR room in the NFL. In what way is WR a luxury pick right now? Outside of an elite edge rusher (and the QB situation), a true #1 WR is the biggest hole on our team at the moment and until it's filled, we'll struggle to pass the ball.

XL and Coker could make for a decent pair of WRs in a few years, but they will never both be good enough to be a Top 2 WR pairing on a contending team. And if those are your top 2 WRs going into next season, that's one of the 5 worst WR rooms in the NFL, no doubt about it. This is NOT a T-Mac post, it's just a general and accurate statement about our WR room at the moment.

I'm fine, I just want us to draft with our head's for once and not the media darling of the year. Can you breath with Deion's nuts so far down your throat?

That you still can't or refuse to see the fact that Shedeur doing things like that is a red flag, is pathetic. I can't ever remember a player trying to force their way to a specific team (or two) in the NFL draft. And no, Eli doesn't count, as the Manning family made it very clear at the start that they weren't trying to get to the Giants or anywhere else specifically, it was that they refused to let him play for the Chargers as their ownership and never shown being serious about winning. I want no part of any player Deion has a hand in. If we were a great franchise, with a ton of locker room leaders, strong front office and coaching staff, all of that, then it's not as big of a problem or risk to take one of these two guys. But we don't have any of that, you put those players into this franchise right now, and it's going to be a problem. If you draft one of them and that ends up being the case then we can forget about winning anytime soon. You take a team as struggling as much as we are and you create that type of locker room problem, it's going to get so much worse than just missing on a pick.

Here's the best realistic case scenario for the rest of the season....... Giants lose out, Raiders beat Jags, Titans beat Jags, Jags beat Colts, Browns beat Dolphins in Cleveland. Even if we sneak out one more win, if the above all plays out, we still could be picking as high as 4th depending on SOS of us, Jags, Titans (Browns will be too high of an SOS to be in the mix there with us all having 4 wins). But if we also then lose out and the above happens (except if we do, Browns don't have to win again), we're then most likely picking 3rd after the Giants and Patriots (unless the Patriots beat the Bills in Week 18 and we move up to 2nd, which could happen if the Bills have nothing to play for and rest everyone). The key though in all of that is that the Raiders are then picking 4th behind us. Giants take a QB, Patriots hopefully fall in love with Hunter and take him, and we're able to bluff the Raiders into us trading the pick to someone else, we get their 2026 1st (and maybe more) to swap picks with them and we get to take the same player we'd have taken at #3 but get great additional draft capital at the same time. If Deion won't let us draft Hunter, then I want the above all to happen and then the Bills rest everyone and the Patriots beat them. That way it's Giants, Panthers, Raiders, Patriots and we don't have to worry about the Raiders making the trade with the Patriots at #2, as I'd love to be able to swap back one pick to get draft assets for free and still get the player we want. But I'd rather the Patriots be there to take Hunter if Deion doesn't tell us no, because I'm so much against drafting him that I want him off the board when we're picking, I think he's going to be a huge locker room problem in the NFL and be more like an Antonio Brown in a few years and pure locker room cancer.

literally what I pointed out like 2 hours ago, that we were more likely to be in the 5th spot than the 3rd before today ended. And we could very well move right back up to 4th before this week's games are over anyways. No matter who wins the Bears/Vikings game, the Jags SOS improves as their SOS is below .500. But if the Vikings win, as expected, ours will fall because of it. Unfortunately the same thing is set up in the Raiders/Falcons game but in reverse, and worse, as both us and the Jags played the Raiders, but we play the Falcons twice, so if the Falcons win, it hurts our SOS double. A Falcons though would hurt out SOS doubly, and thus help our draft positioning). But then if the Packers beat the Seahawks tonight, that then also hurts the Jags SOS. I'm not going to try and do the math on it all to figure out, because it doesn't really matter with 3 weeks still to play, but it just goes to show how volatile SOS can be in the end and is the first tiebreaker for draft positioning (worse SOS gets the higher pick). Especially as the Jags and Raiders play each other next week, and with the Raiders much tougher SOS than us and we're tied with the Jags, if we lose next week, we jump ahead of whoever wins that game anyways (and if the Raiders beat the Jags, it could also mean we jump both if the Jags SOS ends up going higher than ours too).

And they might, but that has no bearing on the fact that we're not going to be in the 3rd pick position by the end of this weekend. My dream scenario is the Raiders end up one pick behind us and we can leverage the threat of trading the pick to another team into them giving us their 1st rounder next year (and maybe more) so they can get their QB and then we still get to pick whatever other player we wanted.