strato

So I am a lowly fan unsophisticated in the building of .500 teams on a good day. Let’s see what happens with Rattler, with some of these guys that were projected third rounders and go to freefall. The idea, where in this discussion it went another way, is that this is an asset development game. QBs are top currency. Develop some. Trade them. Pats did it successfully more than once.

I am talking potential starters, yeah. Knowing the low success rate. You can find ST players all day though. Maybe a particular year there is a need for a ST guy that you know really would never be a starter but fills a role that season.. sure. I think every pick you have you hope to turn into a starter. This isn’t me saying it is blindfold and swing at a QB every year just because he is a QB. I am saying if you see something think you can work with it is worth a shot. Especially with an offensive minded QB centric staff that has some QB coaching ability. I’m cool with you not thinking it is the way to go. I’m sticking to it though.

Sure, anything is possible. He just ain’t Frank though. You can find similarities I suppose but 1st, much younger. And fresh not burned out or close to burned out. Got more ahead of him than behind probably. So that’s something. And we are certain that he knew 100% what his assignment was when he took the job, where I think Frank, as things unfolded, was surprised and overwhelmed by the size of the job given the time he had to put it together. Just a feeling and opinion.

What do you think it takes to push him? We getting ready to find out how good he really is but so far I don’t see it taking a lot. Someone besides Dalton, who is obviously a better player but comes in saying it is Bryce’s job, before Bryce ever took a snap. He ain’t pushin’ anybody.

How many 7th rounders have we had to really contribute? Munnerlyn, I think Norman was 5th? Maybe 6th. I just don’t see a 6th or 7th round miss as causing a significant drag on roster maintenance when the difference between there and UDFAs isn’t really that great. You can pick those guys up in cuts very often, too. So I guess I’ll take my team and do what I want and you take your and do what you want and we’ll see. Except we don’t have teams. But I am all over taking a shot because even though hitting on it it is rare, it could still happen. If I like the way the player sitting there looks I am not gonna ignore him.

He could, no doubt. But there are still 19 chances for it, and we are not likely to miss the playoffs because Bryce Young missed a couple of series in preseason game 1. Perspective is good. I would bet if you take the total number of snaps in preseason from last year and compare them to this year, when it is said and done we can see what the numbers are. If he plays the next two weeks it won’t be that much difference, is my guess.

I I think that neglects to consider the relative perceived value of the QB position. Very high. So formulaic consideration above my pay grade must be factored in. Basically if there is a question about a QB prospect he is gonna fall (unless it’s Bryce Young for some reason). If there are a couple of questions he’ll fall farther down. There are still people that slip through, although granted, it's a small number. I still think we could have found everything we are gonna see in Bryce, at far better value and I’ve been watching other teams hit on devalued players, I want some of that.

I talked about that too. There are for sure practice players, and guys who are not practice players but turn the recording light on and they get focused differently.

You seriously think he could be gone after one year? I am betting no, despite the track record of ownership. Something has to change and changing coaches has not worked.

It’s completely conceivable at this point to consider he may be working with a new QB next year. So like return to Go, start over. Only he’ll have a year into building a foundation. That is not something that happens much with new coaches. They usually have to come in at the same time as the QB, in those situations.

Knowing what it would look like was the main cause of all the consternation over sitting people.

i was actually thinking of UDFA vs 6th or 7th round. I thought that was part of the idea we were discussing. Like you can wait until after the draft for these guys. I was saying that it holds true for about all players down there so what is really the difference? Now, I did not research success rate of 6th round picks by position, but I guess you did. . You might be citing established success rates or you might be guesstimating, I don’t know. I’m not challenging that in the first place, we can use it. I would say though, that if my eyes tell me there is potential, and the kid shows to have a good head on his shoulders I am going to do what feels right in that circumstance regardless of the percentages. It isn’t a high level of investment. That is where you can gamble a little. Moving along... You could take the view that you can more successfully predict success of other positions better than QB when you are at the top of the player rankings, I might look at focusing my 1st round on doing that. That was just off the top of my head so I looked for a better source. I stole the below from Jeremy Fowler on Twitter, it is compiled of the years 2000-20019. The percentages by positions are below (look at WR lol). And there is a link to a 2025 trade value chart also. There is a lot to this of course, but I thought I’d look at the trade value chart along with these percentages. I am not great with the math heavy statistical analysis, so I won’t try to quantify all this. But I did consider that 2% chance thing and compared that to the 46% for 1st rounders from this chart (QBs ftr) (That’s 23 times more likely? Or just divisible 23 times? I don’t the rules for probabilities like some folks here will.) The value of a mid 6th rounder is 15.4, for the 15th pick of the 6th round. 23 x 15.4 is 354.2 The value of the 15th overall selection, is listed as 1050. Looks like you get 23 shots x 2 percentage wise. You essentially get 3 times that many shots from a trade chart value. What can we do with those numbers? https://www.drafttek.com/nfl-trade-value-chart.asp https://x.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1783133659249193449

Gotta give him a rookie year even if it doesn’t look great. He’ll learn a lot, see what he can do with it in ‘25

Spamming propaganda to the peasants again.

You could kinda say the same thing about almost any player down there at the bottom. Who are you missing out on really, using these late rounds to secure a developmental QB?

If Bryce has not improved there will be boos in BOA. It’s pretty simple. Cheers he stays, boos he goes.

Missed quoting the post in the reply... Yep. There are some advantages, possibly. You just detailed aspects of it. I came to the same place after getting my frustration out and started trying to look at it clinically or whatever the right word is. With that 3 game thing, you could possible get an edge if you could reimagine it successfully. 1st game, what they did. Now they have guys in as real conditions as they can have, and focus on whatever potential stands out. That done, you have a hopefully healthy starting bunch to put through scrimmages and the 2nd game, a week to fix stuff for the next game and see maybe a progress arc, and two week to get ready for the season with your 53. It might make good sense.

Milton was flashing, right off the bat. It doesn’t mean that he will develop, it means they have something to work with. Saints may be able to trade Rattler or Haener, they are both looking good so far. I envy that poo.

Replays are our friend. Maybe more like an acquaintance.

I had concerns over flying back with the storms and bands of wind. It was Delta huh? I would have guessed United.

No one wants to watch horrible football. Especially when it’s your team making it bad football. There was like, ZERO payoff for us really. It was Christmas morning last night, and even though we were pretty sure what to expect; we were getting socks like we do most Christmases, we had disappointment when we opened presents. Even the socks were crappy. It is Devil’s advocate time, time to bright side this poo: The strategy of playing your depth might actually be smart. Things happen in game situations that you don’t see in practices, all day. You find who you want to focus on right away, have more time to form your decisions, might be a more efficient way of looking at finalizing a roster. And your starters stay healthy for the week of Jets scrimmages and will have the chance to gauge their progress.

Why compare him to himself? Baseline should be in the average range of QBs that went on to have great success in the NFL.

If they shop a pic of Bryce looking like Godzilla stomping on opposing fans tailgates before the games, and put it where that fap pic of him is over on the sidebar... they can stay

https://www.panthers.com/video/dave-canales-addresses-the-media-after-preseason-opener-2024

Looking at the situation going into tonight, expectations had to be basement level, and that held true. So rationally (and after last year) I knew it would be like a visit to the dentist, but it was a soul killing couple of hours all the same.