LinvilleGorge

Governor Polis of Colorado has a press briefing scheduled in an hour. I wouldn't be surprised if shelter in place is right around the corner.

South Korea and Singapore were ready. No government could've been ready for this while claiming it was a hoax for two months before finally waking up and realizing it was here and already widespread.

I had already read it earlier today. I just didn't want to post it, because like I said, I'm kinda torn on sharing it. I think it's good info, but I'm kinda of the mind that people need to be a little irrationally scared of this right now or else they won't listen to the guidelines that will save a lot of high risk people if they're followed.

I think we're at six deaths here in Colorado. They've all been elderly with other underlying health issues.

We have about 18" of snow on the ground from yesterday. We're at least 6 weeks out from sustained warmer weather here.

Just to put it into perspective, just the Denver metro area is over 8000 square miles. There are only 3500 in the entire Colorado National Guard. That's roughly one person for every 2.3 square miles. Meanwhile, there's almost 3 million residents in those 8000 square miles. That's not gonna work unless people willingly comply in which case it's unnecessary to begin with.

But @Davidson Deac II is right. Outside of maybe a handful of major cities per state, martial law would essentially be an impossibility. The country is just too big and the population too spread out. What we really need is people to just listen to good advice because enforcing a quarantine at a national level in America just isn't possible.

Honestly, it just feels like a matter of time before a national "shelter in place" guideline is issued for all non-essential travel.

I'm torn on it. I don't like driving irrational hysteria and I love numbers, so I really like the work put forth there. However, most Americans are so damn selfish that it might require driving hysteria to get them to actually make the necessary changes. Yeah, if you're relatively young and relatively healthy you're highly unlikely to die from this disease. But going out there and getting it and spreading it is going to expose it to people in much higher risk categories. And at the end of the day, if the healthcare system is overrun then you're going to not only see a lot more people die directly from this disease but you're also going to see a lot of people die from unrelated health issues like our leading causes of death in heart disease and cancer simply because they're not going to be able to get the same (if any) healthcare that they would've been able to receive absent this pandemic. Those deaths wouldn't be counted in the COVID-19 death toll, but they might as well be.

None of this is surprising. We've already seen how this has played out across the world. The countries that successfully avoided the worst case scenarios took aggressive EARLY action. A lot of them were countries that got hit hard by SARS and they were better a lot better prepared because of it. We're starting to get semi-aggressive nearly two months after our first cases. This thing is almost certainly widespread at this point.

Can we just fast forward to 2021 already? 2020 is dogshit.

6500 new cases today. If their new cases don't level off over the next 3-4 days, then something is off. Either their testing, their control of the lockdown, or this thing has a lot longer potential incubation period than thought because the math says they should peak in the next few days.

The virus can live up to 24 hours on cardboard. We're taking all deliveries and leaving them on the back deck for a day. Probably an over precaution but whatever. It gives me some peace of mind for my family.

Dispute the charge with your credit card company.

How are you calculating death rate without knowing total cases?

We were tracking behind them for a little while, but it looks like we're now tracking ahead of where they were.

Yep. Colorado's governor has publicly stated that even though we're in the neighborhood of 200 cases confirmed in the state, the real number is likely in the thousands.

All you have to do is look to Italy. They've been on lockdown for a week and their new caseload is still climbing. This virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days (though I think the average is 4 days). A week is going to make practically no difference at all. I'm watching Italy for when their new caseload levels off and then starts declining. Given the incubation period and contagiousness of the virus, I think the peak will happen sometime early to mid next week. I say that knowing jack poo about infectious diseases, but having a really good grasp of forecasting mathematics. If they're new caseload is still climbing this time next week, that's gonna be an "oh poo" moment for me.

They're doing the same thing here in Jefferson County, CO. It's to decrease the density of the populations held so that they can more effectively maintain social isolation standards. Your tinfoil might be wrapped a bit too tight.

Italy has been locked down for a week and their caseload is still climbing. It's gonna take a lot longer than a week. Wuhan has been on lockdown for virtually two months now.

I think martial law is a long ways off. It would take a MASSIVE mobilization of LEO, National Guard, etc. to pull off. It's not like you could flip a switch on something like that in a matter of a few days. Shelter in place orders? Yeah, those are gonna be widespread soon. If people would just listen to the damn CDC guidelines none of this would be necessary, but you still have idiot spring breakers partying on the beach, etc.

I hope everything turns out well. I still have three grandparents living. They're all 80+. My paternal grandfather would 100% not survive this. He has pretty advanced emphysema and every minor cold he gets turns into pneumonia. My paternal grandmother is pretty healthy, but she survived a bout of lung cancer about 20 years ago and is missing a good chunk of one lung from that. She'd be super high risk too. My maternal grandfather is still pretty weakened by a battle with colon cancer about a year and a half ago. I don't necessarily like any of their chances. Similar story with my inlaws. My father in law is a pediatrician so I'm sure he has a very high risk of exposure. He's 67 and diabetic. My mother in law is 69 and diabetic with heart disease. Not good. My wife has begged him to just retire but he won't hear of it. He wants to help if he can.

Yep. There are going to be a LOT of people in a LOT of financial trouble very quickly absent massive financial intervention. We've essentially grinded every non-essential part of our economy to a halt over the past week. That's not sustainable for long.

A malaria drug is showing early promising results. This is one of about four or five different current anti-virals that are showing early promising results. Too early and too limited of data to call anything a slam dunk, but there's promise out there using existing drugs already available to fight this thing. https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view