Week 4 WIN against Tampa - Stats & Analysis

[KB_fan]

Way to go Josh...  (Edit:  Sorry, the full tweet didn't show up earlier...)

Randall Liu ‏@RLiuNFL 2h2 hours ago

Josh Norman has 4 INTs this season. That’s more than 20 TEAMS

If Josh were a team all by himself, he would be tied for 9th in the league in interceptions.  As it is, he's part of the Panthers, and we're #1 in turnover ratio and points on turnovers so far this season.

[KB_fan]

Here's more detail on Panthers time of possession leading vs. time of possession trailing.  (Note: this is only time of possession, NOT elapsed time).

While it's obviously varied by game, overall, on average, we've been leading 3.2 times longer than we've been trailing so far this season.  But our 2nd half leading ratio is crazy:  51+ minutes leading to just under 4 minutes trailing.  Very nice.

[KB_fan]

Given that our excellent turnover ratio, and ability to capitalize on takeaways has been a HUGE part of our story so far this season, here are some of the stats on that from Sporting Charts:

Team interceptions 2015 to date:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-interceptions/2015/

 

[KB_fan]

Takeaway & Giveaway stats:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-takeaway-giveaway-statistics/2015/

[KB_fan]

Here's one of my favorite stats from Sporting Charts:  Team Net Turnover Points.   Carolina & GreenBay remain the only teams in the league who have not allowed ANY points on turnovers. 

By contrast, we've scored 42 points on opponents' turnovers.  Awesome.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-net-turnover-points-statistics/2015/

 

 

[CarolinaXblue]

I heard Ron mention yesterday on Panther Talk an interesting fact that I didn't really think about. He was saying that if you look at Cam's passing yards he only threw for I think 124, but if you look at the starting field position for the offense they started a lot from their own 30-40 or even in + territory with some of their takeaways . So they basically chalked his short yardage up to good starting field position.

[KB_fan]

I heard Ron mention yesterday on Panther Talk an interesting fact that I didn't really think about. He was saying that if you look at Cam's passing yards he only threw for I think 124, but if you look at the starting field position for the offense they started a lot from their own 30-40 or even in + territory with some of their takeaways . So they basically chalked his short yardage up to good starting field position.

Yes, because of all the takeaways.  We started in Tampa territory on 5 of 13 drives.  (4 of 12 drives if you don't count the final kneeldown drive before the end of the game.)  Our average starting position was the CAR 41.  (Previous best was CAR 37 against JAX). 

Our WORST starting field position Sunday was the CAR 20.

[KB_fan]

I'm digging around Sporting Charts again, trying to find interesting statistics to look at as we've hit the end of the 1st quarter of the season.   Been hearing people concerned about our run game, so I decided to look at the "stuffed %" which Sporting Charts calculates.   We're doing pretty well.  6th lowest stuffed % in the league:

(By the way, it looks like we have the most rushing attempts of any team in the league).

Team Stuffed Percentage measures the percentage of rushing attempts that are stopped by the oppontent team at or before the line of scrimmage.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-stuffed-percentage/2015/

Graphing our current stuffed % against Panthers' historical data shows that this is a nice low rate compared to our prior seasons - 3rd best in our history.  2005 was our lowest stuffed %:

[KB_fan]

A bit more about our rushing stats, as I just posted on another thread:

I was just playing around at Sporting Charts, and discovered a few interesting things about our rushing game.

1) We have the most rushing attempts of any team in the league at 131 attempts.  So... that's bound to skew our perception of our running game.  With so many attempts, it's only reasonable that quite a high number won't be for large gains.

2) We're not doing badly at all in terms of stuffed % (6th best in the leage at 7.6% stuffed percentage), which is currently the 3rd best stuffed % in Panthers history.

3) We're 4th best in rushing offense at 132.3 rushing yards per game.

4) We're 3rd in terms of rushing first downs per game.

5) We lead the league with rushing big plays (10+ yards) at 19.

6) We ARE low in terms of rushing yards / attempt at 4.0 yards per attempt (ranked 19th). 

[KB_fan]

Some of you may recall that following the end of the pre-season, I was having fun looking at # of sacks allowed, having noted that our Oline gave up an incredibly small # of sacks in the preseason...

How has the 1st quarter of the regular season been in terms of sacks... what pace does it put us on?

So far in 2015, we've allowed (given up) 7 sacks and  completed 9 sacks against opponents.

In 2014 after 4 games, we'd allowed 10 sacks and completed 8.

In 2013 after 4 games, we'd allowed 15 sacks, and completed 11.

In 2008, which was our best year ever in terms of allowing fewest sacks (20 during the season), after 4 games, we'd allowed 9 sacks, and completed 7.

In 2005, we allowed 8 sacks in our 1st 4 games, and completed 4.

So, it's looking very good in terms of low # of sacks allowed.  Kudos to our OLine!

Multiplying 7 sacks allowed by 4 to extrapolate to a 16 game season, would give us 28 sacks allowed, putting us at similar levels to our 2005 and 2003 seasons.  Sacks allowed currently represent 2.7% of total offensive plays, or 5.5% of all passing attempts.

----

By the way, our rate of 7 sacks allowed puts us 12th in number of sacks allowed in the NFL, but because of our smaller # of pass attempts than many teams, we're 17th in terms of sacked allowed %.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/sacked-percentage/2015/

[KB_fan]

Just saw via Twitter that BBR have updated their Panthers Rookie Watch stats:

http://blackandbluereview.com/carolina-panthers-2015-rookie-watch-week-4/

[KB_fan]

Came across a really excellent article at an inferior site which any Panther fan & stats lover will enjoy.

http://www.catscratchreader.com/2015/10/6/9458633/end-of-season-stats-the-panthers-should-shoot-for-revisited

The author prior to the season had identified 7 key statistical benchmarks of typically very successful teams, and is tracking how the Panthers have done 1/4 of the way through the season.  Makes for excellent reading.  Here's an excerpt:

5. Season goal: Hold teams to 3.7 or fewer yards per rush

Five defenses held teams to 3.7 or fewer yards per rush last year, and those teams won an average of 11 games in 2014.  Last season, the Panthers were tied for 27th in the NFL, allowing 4.5 yards per rushing attempt.

This is an unacceptable stat for a team with a loaded front-seven, and the Panthers allowed only 4.0 yards per rush in 2013.  Either Star Lotulelei or Kawaan Short should be the next Panther to earn a high-dollar extension, and both should be entering their prime. While neither is a Geno Atkins-like pass-rusher, they need to become dominating against the run.

After four games, the Panthers are allowing 3.8 yards per rush, just slightly above the goal of 3.7.  Of coarse, that is without the services of Star Lotulelei and Luke Kuechly for most of the season.

7. Season goal: Finish in the top 16 in the NFL in punt or kick return average

Of last season's 12 playoff teams, only the Panthers and the Seahawks failed to finish in the top half of the league in either punt of kick return average. While the Hawks should have won the SuperBowl despite this, they did invest their first pick in the draft in return specialist Tyler Lockett.

While last season, the Panthers had the worst weighted DVOA (a metric used by Football Outsiders) of any special-teams unit in 2014, I believe it is very realistic for the Panthers to rank in the top half of the NFL in both kickoff and punt returns.

Currently, the Panthers are eighth in kick-off returns, with a 27.2 average, and sixth in punt-return average with 14.9 ypa.

 

[KB_fan]

Good article with some Cam Newton stats at BBR:

http://blackandbluereview.com/cam-newton-2015-bye-weekend/

Newton Through Four Games

Season	TD	INT	Sacks
2015	7	2	7
2014	5	1	11
2013	6	5	15
2012	4	5	9
2011	5	5	8

[KB_fan]

Also, speaking of Cam Newton Stats, here are those tweets about air yards lost, which have already been a separate thread here.  Just thought they'd be worth adding to this thread:

Pro Football Focus ‏@PFF Oct 8

Most air yards lost due to drops so far:

1. C Newton (139)

2. S Bradford (133)

3. B Bortles (118)

4. R Mallett (112)

5. C Palmer (92)