Week 6 WIN Against Seattle - Stats & Analysis

[KB_fan]

Scott Fowler has an excellent column at the Observer on Cam's play on Sunday.  Here's a key excerpt:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/scott-fowler/article40298589.html

In Carolina’s 27-23 comeback victory at Seattle Sunday, what you saw in the final eight minutes was a quarterback playing the position as well as he has ever played it. That was as close to perfect as Newton has ever been.

I watched the last two drives again on Monday, and here is what I saw. Newton threw a 25-yard strike to Devin Funchess that Funchess managed to drop. He spiked the ball once to kill the clock.

And other than that, he went 11-for-11.

Running? It wasn’t even part of the equation for Newton.

Was Greg Olsen just bailing him out over and over? No.

Here are Newton’s last six passes of the game, in order (not including the spike):

Eight yards to Jonathan Stewart.

Eighteen yards to Ted Ginn.

Fourteen yards to Ed Dickson.

Sixteen yards to Funchess.

Seven yards to Jerricho Cotchery.

And, finally, 26 yards to Olsen for the game-winning TD.

Six completions. Six different receivers. In a storm of noise. And all without his No. 1 wide receiver, Kelvin Benjamin.

 

[KB_fan]

I was over at the team rankings site to look up something, and I noticed their stats & rankings on red zone scoring efficiency.  

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct/?date=2015-10-22

Our 2015 red-zone scoring is much improved from 2013 and 2014 levels:

Rank		2015	Last 3	Last 1	Home	Away
14		58.82%	66.67%	100.00%	66.67%	54.55%
26	2014	48.15%
19	2013	52.08%

 

[KB_fan]

Some stats on Cam's 4th Qtr QB rating via David Newton:

http://espn.go.com/blog/carolina-panthers/post/_/id/16461/panthers-ron-rivera-cam-newton-wants-to-show-he-deserved-big-contract

Newton has played his best all-around football during Carolina’s 5-0 start. He has been particularly productive in the fourth quarter, with a Total Quarterback Rating of 94.1 that ranks second in the NFL.

The first pick of the 2011 draft had a fourth-quarter rating of 98.9 in Sunday’s 27-23 victory at Seattle, and that was the third-highest total for a quarterback this season.

[...]

Newton hasn’t been close to this efficient in the fourth quarter before this season. His Total QBR for that quarter from 2011-2014 was 48.1, which ranked 18th in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information.

[...]

Newton’s Total QBR in the first three quarters of games this season is only 37.1. That magnifies his production in the fourth quarter because he hasn’t let slow starts impact how he finishes, as he might have a few years ago.

 

[KB_fan]

Over at C-S-R they've posted some additional PFF grades for the Panthers v. Seattle:

http://www.catscratchreader.com/2015/10/19/9571479/panthers-27-seahawks-23-handing-out-the-pff-grades

Offense:

• Cam Newton (+4.9) earned his highest grade of the year.
• The interior of Carolina's OL was stellar again: C Ryan Kalil (+5.5), LG Andrew Norwell (+4.3), and RG Trai Turner (+3.5).
• RT Mike Remmers (-5.2) struggled mightily this week. He allowed 5 pressures in pass protection.
• Jonathan Stewart (+1.7) received his best grade of the season. He forced 5 missed tackles on 20 carries.

Defense:

• Luke Kuechly (+3.5) had a strong outing in his first game since week 1.
• Kawann Short (+5.4) continued his terrific season. He did his best work against the pass as he registered 6 QB pressures.
• Bene Benwikere (+1.8) earned his highest grade of the year.
• Although Ryan Delaire (+0.5) struggled against the run, he pressured Russell Wilson 5 times to earn a net positive grade.
• Starting safeties Roman Harper (-2.4) and Kurt Coleman (-0.6) received the lowest grades on Carolina's defense.

[KB_fan]

Special Teams:

• David Mayo made two tackles on punt coverage giving him a +1.0 special teams grade.
• Graham Gano (+1.5) forced touchbacks on 3 of his 5 kickoffs. He averaged 72.0 yards per kick off attempt.

 

Signature Stats:

• Josh Norman was targeted twice in coverage. Both passes were complete, but for a total of -2 yards.
• On the season, Jonathan Stewart has forced 21 missed tackles in the run game, the second most in the NFL.
• Coming off his best game as a Panther, Brenton Bersin played just 3 offensive snaps.

[KB_fan]

Even with the 6 points scored by Seattle off of Cam's two interceptions thrown on Sunday, we continue to be at the top of the league in terms of Net Points scored off of turnovers.  Nice.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-net-turnover-points-statistics/2015/

In case anyone's wondering, New England & Cincinnati are at 16 and 17 respectively:

16	New England Patriots	17	13	4
17	Cincinnati Bengals	25	22	3

[KB_fan]

Here's a table I put together showing offense by quarter for the Seattle game, and with the season totals as well.

Note the points totals are only for points scored by our offense.  They don't include pick-6 TDs scored by our defense.

So far the whole season, we've been very anemic on offense in the 1st Q (though we've had fewer drives, because we've won all but 1 coin toss, and always elected to defer).  But scoring in the other quarters is pretty even.  Seattle is the only game where most of our offense has been in the 4th Q.

[caatfan]

we've been very anemic on offense in the 1st Q

I'd call it piss poor. The Eagles are even worse in the 1st, but if the slow starts continue, it's gonna bite us eventually.

[KB_fan]

BBR has their updated data on snaps & stats for this year's rookies:

http://blackandbluereview.com/carolina-panthers-rookie-watch-after-week-6/

[KB_fan]

Jonathan Jones at the Observer has an excellent analysis of Carolina's final 2 TD drives in the last minutes of the game.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article40474167.html

Here's an excerpt:  (bold added)

Quarterback Cam Newton said his Panthers could have packed it up and gone home on Sunday when they trailed by two scores with 8 minutes to play in Seattle, where the home team rarely loses.

Instead, the Panthers rallied, scoring on two touchdown drives of 80 yards each for the franchise’s biggest win in at least two seasons.

Aided by smart decisions from Newton, good hands from receivers and hard running from Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers stayed ahead of the chains and out of bad situations against the Seahawks.

The Panthers ran 17 plays in those two drives and faced third down just once.

“I just think it’s staying out of the long-yardage situations,” Panthers offensive coordinator Mike Shula said. “I think the efficiency on that drive of making first downs on first or second downs (helped).

“Whether or not it’s throwing it on every down or running it, the key was the effectiveness and efficiency on early downs.”

 

 

 

Cam now has now has 10 4th quarter comebacks in 70 career starts. (9 of these comebacks resulted in wins (the 10th ended in the tie with Cincinnati last year))

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/comeback.cgi?player=NewtCa00

[KB_fan]

In looking at the details of Cam's previous nine 4th quarter comeback wins, it's interesting that Greg Olsen has most often scored the game winning points -

he was Cam's target in 4 of these games:

• Sept 2011 against JAX
• Nov 2013 against MIA
• Oct 2014 against CHI
• and now Oct 2015 against SEA

Other Panthers players accounting for 4th Q comeback game-winning scores:

- Gano won two games with field goals

- Newton won one game with a rushing TD

- Hixon had the amazing catch against New Orleans in Dec 2013 to send us to the playoffs

- J Stewart caught a winning TD pass against Cleveland last December

[KB_fan]

Some game analysis at Panthers.com

Mike Shula on 4th Qtr drives:  http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/Shula-One-play-in-two-big-moments/7b535ad4-94a6-418d-92d1-cbedf0c17a74

Sean McDermott on Luke's return and his importance in the game:  http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/McDermott-Kuechly-lifts-defense/e12734e7-f674-499c-b4e0-9ef9e6e7a815

 

[KB_fan]

Some commentary on our WRs by David Newton:  (bold added)

http://espn.go.com/blog/carolina-panthers/post/_/id/16495/cam-newtons-performance-more-impressive-when-you-consider-his-wrs

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- If you aren’t impressed by what Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has accomplished during a 5-0 start, take a look at his wide receivers' statistics.

His top three -- Ted Ginn Jr., Philly Brown and Jerricho Cotchery -- have combined for 28 catches for 396 yards and two touchdowns.

Thirty-two receivers in the NFL have at least 29 catches and 24 have at least 396 yards. Nineteen have more catches and receiving yards than Carolina’s top three combined.

All of the Carolina wide receivers have a combined 38 catches, tying them with the St. Louis Rams for last in the NFL. This group ranks last in receiving yards (525), yards per target (6.7) and drop percentage (6.4%), according to ESPN Stats and Information.

They are 29th in yards after the catch at 3.6.

But hey, we're 5 & 0 baby.  Great job by our team to overcome the adversity of Kelvin's absence.  Here's to keeping it up, and hoping that those 4th qtr drives on Sunday really sparked something in our passing game. 

[KB_fan]

Good article at Panthers.com that talks about all the ways this team is breaking old bad patterns:

http://www.panthers.com/news/ask-bryan/article-2/Ask-Bryan-Panthers-rolling-with-Rivera/5d845b2d-24a3-48d8-b6ad-d7d5df9565ed

Dating back approximately two calendar years to Carolina's 1-3 start in 2013 that began with a heartbreaking loss to Seattle in the season opener, Rivera and the Panthers have been in the business of silencing such chatter on a number of fronts.

SEATTLE SLUMP: The Panthers had been a serious threat to the Seahawks four times over the previous three seasons but had never carried it all the way through. That sure changed in the fourth quarter Sunday, when Carolina became just the third visiting team to CenturyLink Field in the last 31 games to head home victorious.

BYE WEEK BLUES: For whatever reason, the Panthers had struggled mightily in the first game after their bye under Rivera, dropping all four games by a combined score of 102-36. The reason remains a mystery but the streak doesn't remain. Maybe it was just a matter of too small of a sample size to mean much.

SLOW STARTS: Rivera's first two teams both started 2-8 before strong finishes that didn't add up to a playoff berth. Rivera's next two teams recovered from slow starts (though the 2014 team technically started strong at 2-0) to both make the playoffs. This year's team has truly put to rest any semblance of concern about slow starts: The 5-0 Panthers have now won nine consecutive regular season games dating to last December, the league's longest current winning streak.

FRUSTRATING FINISHES: Remember when no one thought Rivera could win a close game? Through the Panthers' first two games in 2013, he was 2-14 in games decided by seven or fewer points. But since the legend of "Riverboat Ron" was born in the aftermath of a heartbreaking loss at Buffalo, the Panthers are 12-2-1 in games decided by seven or fewer points. The victory at Seattle improved Carolina to 3-0 in such games this season.

 

Hey Bryan. I have liked what the offense has done racking up 20-plus points in the first five games. Last year, when we didn't score in the twenties, we lost or found it difficult to win. How can we continue that productivity? – Michael in Danville, Va.

Holding opponents to 20 or fewer points is a commonly held goal for defenses around the NFL, and the Panthers are no exception. Under Rivera, Carolina is 31-13 when scoring 20 or more points, including wins in 24 of the last 27 such games. That stretch started with a Monday Night Football victory at Philadelphia in Week 12 of the 2012 season; the Eagles are set to visit the Panthers for Sunday Night Football.

As you stated, the Panthers are now 5-0 this season when scoring 20 or more after reaching the 20-point plateau just seven times all of last season.