Divisional Playoff WIN vs. Seattle - Stats & Analysis

[KB_fan]

I knew it was J-No's first ever sack.  Didn't realize our 5 sacks tied a record...

Panthers PR Dept. @PanthersPR

Josh Norman's 1st career sack is Panthers 5th today - tying for most sacks in a postseason game in Panthers history

[KB_fan]

 

As many have already remarked (especially Seahawks fans....), Just looking at the stats (yards & first downs), you might think Seattle won.  Stats don't show everything...

But yeah, the turnovers.  Once again the best-in-the league defense in terms of takeaways & points off takeaways made the difference.  That Luke pick-6 was the 7 points we needed to win.  And controlling the clock was key...

 

 

[KB_fan]

Stew set another team postseason record:

 

 

 

 

[KB_fan]

No stats... but an awesome comment & picture from TD:

 

 

 

[KB_fan]

And then THIS TD pic & comment after the game....

 

 

 

[KB_fan]

There are a ton more great social media pix & tweets by players & fans here:

http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/Social-Scene-SEAvsCAR/68cf49b3-b1d3-47a5-956d-12caadb89608

 

[KB_fan]

Panthers have a great Vine posted of TD's onsides kick recovery.  Can't stop watching it!!!

 

 

 

[KB_fan]

I probably have forgotten to post some of the great stuff at BBR...  Here's all their coverage of yesterday's playoff game, including "what they're saying", the post-game locker room video and more...:

http://blackandbluereview.com/game-week-coverage/divisional-round-vs-seahawks/

 

[KB_fan]

I thought it would be interesting to re-visit ESPN's pre-game analysis of 5 numbers that mattered.

http://espn.go.com/blog/seattle-seahawks/post/_/id/17609/five-seahawks-panthers-numbers-that-matter

They were pretty on track....  I'll have more details later, but...

1) Obviously Olsen had a huge game..., in spite of tight coverage.

2) Panthers continued to EXCEL in Red Zone scoring

3) Panthers did an excellent job of neutralizing Seahawks feared pass rush

4) This is the one point that was perhaps off the mark.  Yes, Russell Wilson made throws to Baldwin & Lockett.  They had big catches... but it was not enough.  Seattle's lack of a run game hurt them.  Wilson could not win the game with his arm alone.

5) Panthers neutralizing Lynch and the Seahawks run game....  HUGE.

[KB_fan]

More later this evening.... but for now, one more link.

It's fun to look at the game-win-probability analysis from yesterday:

HA HA HA HA HA... Seahawks never crossed the 50!

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/113632/in-game-win-probability-seattle-seahawks-vs-carolina-panthers

Below is a win probability chart for the Carolina Panthers' win over the Seattle Seahawks. The numbers here are based on data from ESPN Stats & Information.

 

 

ESPN Stats & Information

Win probability measures the chance that a team will win a game in progress, given a particular combination of circumstances including score, time remaining, field position, down and to-go distance. Win probability is based on a model built on actual NFL outcomes from recent seasons that featured similar circumstances.

Story of the game ...

The Panthers began the game with a 59 percent chance to win, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, but those chances would change quickly. After only six offensive plays, Carolina had an 85 percent chance to win, and by the half, its win probability reach 99.6 percent. Below are the three biggest plays of the first half that helped the Panthers build their lead.

 

14:55 1st Quarter: Jonathan Stewart’s 59-yard rush

Win probability change: From 59 percent to 68 percent (plus-9 WPA)

On the first play from scrimmage, Stewart ran 59 yards to the Seattle 16-yard line. That play flipped the field and set the Panthers up for an opening-drive touchdown.

 

11:46 1st Quarter: Luke Kuechly’s interception returned for a touchdown

Win probability change: From 76 percent to 85 percent (plus-9 WPA)

[KB_fan]

Scott Fowler has a great article at the Observer.  Part Arizona preview, part Seattle review, I like his focus on several key "hidden plays" in yesterday's game that were key to our success:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/scott-fowler/article55316370.html

Here's an excerpt -
 

Quote

 

Hidden plays, Part 1: How big was Mike Tolbert’s recovery of Cameron Artis-Payne’s fumble on Carolina’s second play from scrimmage?

Coming on the play after Jonathan Stewart’s 59-yard run, a turnover in that situation would have let the air out of the crowd and the team. Instead, Tolbert took advantage of a great bounce and, two plays later, Carolina scored. Every playoff game has two or three plays like that (see Arizona’s deflected TD pass vs. Green Bay), and no matter how good your team is, you usually need some luck like that to seal it.

 

Hidden plays, Part 2: Jared Allen got no credit for this on the stat sheet, but he really should get half a sack on one play Seattle ran Sunday. Allen sniffed out a screen and stayed home as Russell Wilson tried to lure him into a rush. With Allen ready to intercept the ball if it was thrown, a flummoxed Wilson ended up taking a sack. Allen was credited with no tackles Sunday, but he also had three quarterback hurries. The Panthers will miss Allen if he misses Sunday’s game – as I expect he will – because of a fracture in his foot.

 

Hidden plays Part 3: All it ultimately became was an incomplete pass. But Kuechly’s closing speed was amazing late in the fourth quarter when Wilson threw a pass to the deep left for Doug Baldwin.  Kuechly really had no business running that ball down, but he did, and batted it away. Safety Kurt Coleman said that to him that was a better play – because of the higher degree of difficulty – than Kuechly’s 14-yard interception return for a touchdown.

 

 

 

Fowler also noted this. 

Quote

Did you notice Cam Newton only ran for 3 yards on 11 carries Sunday? Seattle really sold out to stop Newton on zone-read runs. It was a season low in rushing yardage for Newton, but what really mattered was how efficient he was. No turnovers in a playoff game – that was the biggest key.

I'm just about to dig into the gamebook, so I hadn't looked at any individual  yardage totals yet.  WOW.  Had no idea Cam's rushing yardage was so low...  That really does highlight our scoring efficiency & ball protection.

[KB_fan]

Here are @MurkN's great collection of GIFs from the game:

 

 

[KB_fan]

More PFF grades from Sunday, thanks to an article at C-S-R

http://www.catscratchreader.com/2016/1/19/10790140/panthers-31-seahawks-24-handing-out-the-grades

The grades seem odd - Stew with a negative grade?????  Huh???

Offense:

• Greg Olsen (+4.1) played his best all-around game of the year; he graded positively as a receiver, pass blocker, and run blocker.
• Michael Oher (+0.9) did not allow a single QB pressure.
• Ryan Kalil (-3.3) struggled in both the run and pass game; it was his second lowest grade this year.
• Jonathan Stewart (-1.2) received his worst grade of the year. He did not force any missed tackles.
• Mike Remmers (-1.5) has graded negatively in eight of the last nine games.

Defense:

• Kawann Short (+5.1) dominated as a pass rusher; he registered 7 total pressures (1 sack, 2 hits, and 4 hurries).
• Jared Allen (+3.6) was also great as a pass rusher; he earned 7 pressures (3 hits and 4 hurries).
• Roman Harper (+3.0) earned his second best grade this year.  He was targeted once in coverage and it was completed for a gain of just four yards.
• Luke Kuechly (+4.1) was spectacular in coverage.  Russell Wilson targeted Kuechly four times and completed just one for eight yards.  Kuechly also had a pick six and a pass defense on those targets.  Wilson's QB rating was 0.0 when attacking Kuechly.
• Kurt Coleman (-4.0) played by far his worst game of the season. He allowed six of seven passes thrown his way to be completed for 93 yards and a touchdown.  Wilson had a perfect rating of 158.3 when throwing at Coleman.

Special Teams:

• Tre Boston (+0.5) had a big tackle on a kick off.  He now has seven solo tackles on ST this year.
• Brad Nortman (-1.9) received his lowest grade of the year.

 

Signature Stats:

• The Panthers fast start took away the Seahawks play action pass game.  Russell Wilson did not attempt a single play action pass.  During the regular season 24.2% of his attempts came off play action, ninth most among the 37 eligible QBs.
• Kawann Short pressured Wilson seven times on 43 pass rush attempts, earning him a pass rush productivity rating of 12.8, the best among all DTs in the playoffs. His regular season rating was 11.1, fourth best among DTs.

 

[KB_fan]

Also via C-S-R, very nice film analysis of the power run game with Stew:

http://www.catscratchreader.com/2016/1/19/10788010/carolina-panthers-all-22-film-analysis-power-running-with-jonathan

Here's an excerpt.  Really informative stuff...

 

Quote

 

Good things happen when you run the football. Just like their week 6 matchup, the Carolina Panthers entered their Divisional Round battle against the Seattle Seahawks determined to run the football.

One play was all it took. On their very first offensive play of the game, the Panthers lined up in a heavy 22 personnel set (2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR) and ran the football right up the middle behind a power blocking scheme.

The particular play the Panthers ran here was "Counter OF", which has been one of their favorite run plays over the past few years. Jonathan Stewart has had a lot of success on this run play because it is a fast hitting play right up the middle. When this run is blocked well up front (as it was on this play), it is almost impossible to stop.

Before I bring up the All-22, I quickly want to discuss the Counter run scheme. "Counter OF" (O = offensive guard, F = fullback) is very similar to Power O, which is probably one of the most popular run plays in all of football at any level, from high school right up to the NFL.

A traditional Power O run utilizes a man-to-man blocking scheme with either guard pulling across the line and lead blocking for the running back. The fullback or tight end’s job on Power is usually to take out the edge defender, whether it’s a defensive end or outside linebacker.

 

 

Diagram from College and Magnolia, SB Nation's Auburn Tigers Blog.

On Counter, the roles for the guard and tight end/fullback are reversed. It is still a man-to-man blocking scheme, but the pulling offensive guard is now responsible for smashing the edge defender, while the tight end or fullback becomes the lead blocker for the running back.

 

Diagram from College and Magnolia, SB Nation's Auburn Tigers Blog.

The Panthers have had a lot of success running Counter OF because it is a perfect complement to their read option run game. On most zone and power reads, the Panthers are leaving a defensive end unblocked as they read them. So imagine being a defensive end on a Counter play where you start out unblocked on what seems like a zone or power read, but suddenly you need to deal with a 320-pound Trai Turner running straight towards you with a full head of steam. Yikes.

Let’s move onto the play: