Super Bowl Loss to Denver: Stats & Analysis, Good links, tweets, etc.

[JARROD]

Cam just never seemed like the comfortable big time player Cam. And I don't think it was because of the Super Bowl. He's come up big under pressure, often putting the game on his back. When he started taking off running and then started hitting Olsen and others on those misdirection plays he was starting to come together.

everytime that happened then came another set of false starts, a sack because we can't adjust protection and Tolbert just can't block like Stewart, unsportsmanlike conducts, dropped pass--and it was me more than 4. I don't know what game they watched but it was definitely higher.

We didn't seem to change plays, tempo or call at the line-- it looked like a set call each time, with maybe a shift in protection or an occasional audible at best.

so it was a poorly executed and poorly coached game. 

[KB_fan]

Thanks to C-S-R, more PFF grades / premium stats from the Super Bowl...

http://www.catscratchreader.com/2016/2/9/10953144/super-bowl-50-handing-out-the-grades

When your QB has 20 incompletions but still receives the highest grade on the offense, well you know it was  bad day for the offense:

Offense:

• Cam Newton (+3.5) earned the highest grade on the Carolina offense. While he threw 23 incomplete passes, it’s important to note that four were dropped, three were thrown away, and one was batted down.
• Mike Remmers (-6.8) struggled mightily; he allowed seven hurries and three sacks.
• Michael Oher (-1.8) was ineffective in the run game, but held up well enough in pass protection. He allowed one sack and two hurries.
• Trai Turner (+1.6) was the only starter on the line to grade positively. He allowed two hurries.
• Greg Olsen (-2.0) graded negatively as a receiver for the first time all season. He was targeted seven times and caught four passes for 41 yards.

 

Defense:

• Kony Ealy (+5.0) played by far the best game of his career (his previous high was +1.5 against Arizona in the NFC Championship game). Interestingly, he only played 23 of 60 defensive snaps.
• Josh Norman (+2.1) was outstanding. Versus Demaryius Thomas, he was targeted three times and allowed none to be completed while breaking up two of the throws.
• Kawann Short (+0.5) was not as disruptive as usual. He graded negatively as a pass rusher and only pressured Manning once.
• Charles Johnson (+2.7) graded well against the run and pass. He made four stops, a season high.
• Robert McClain (+1.0) was targeted five times in coverage and allowed four receptions (all vs. Emmanuel Sanders) for 70 yards, but played a solid overall game as he made a pass defense and a stop.

The defense took advantage of the Bronco offense' decision to focus on protection up the middle, hence Ealy was one on one and making plays. Same with CJ. I mean, the defense only gave up 6 points on drives that didn't begin in their own territory while also preventing points on 2 other drives into Panther territory by causing a Bronco turnover. They certainly played well enough to win.

 

Special Teams:

• Teddy Williams (-2.0) made a miscue on the Jordan Norwood punt return and had a special teams penalty.
• Graham Gano (-3.1) had his worst game of the season. In addition to the missed field goal, two of his three kickoffs were returned.

Signature Stats:

• On 90 post-season pass rush snaps, Von Miller pressured the QB 23 times (6 sacks, 1 hit, and 16 hurries). Similarly, on 103 pass rush attempts, DeMarcus Ware earned 22 pressures (4 sacks, 8 hits, and 10 hurries).
• In the Super Bowl, Cam Newton was pressured on 46.9% of drop backs; in all other games, he was pressured on 34.5% of drop backs.

[KB_fan]

Also at C-S-R, an interesting analysis of how badly we struggled on 1st downs:

http://www.catscratchreader.com/2016/2/9/10948462/worst-and-10-carolinas-dreadful-1st-down-performance-in-super-bowl-50

Here's the beginning.  I found it a really interesting read.

 

Quote

 

In reviewing the play-by-play I was struck to see in black and white just how badly Carolina struggled on first downs throughout the game. While watching the game live I was aware of how many second- and third-and-long situations the Panthers seemed to face, but the cold had facts are striking. Consider this:

-14 of Carolina’s 32 first down plays gained zero yards or lost yardage.  (Read that again, slowly.)

-22 of Carolina’s 32 first down plays gained two yards or less.

-Of the 10 Panthers first down plays that gained more than two yards, two came on Cam Newton scrambles (12 yards and three yards), one resulted in a lost fumble (Mike Tolbert’s 11-yard gain), and one came in garbage time (6-yard reception by Jerricho Cotchery with 54 seconds left.)

-Only 7 of Carolina’s 32 first down plays gained more than four yards, including Cotchery’s garbage time reception.

(Note: These stats exclude Jonathan Stewart’s TD leap since this was a positive play despite being listed as a one-yard gain.)

While there are many reasons why the Panthers lost the Super Bowl, their inability to get consistent yardage on first down was one of the most significant.

 

You can see our terrible 1st down inefficiency in black & white, with a detailed list of every 1st down play of the game.  Here, for example is the 1st Qtr:

 

Quote

 

Here is the summary of first down plays for your viewing (dis)pleasure, with plays gaining two yards or less in italics:

1st Quarter

10:36 – 2-yard run by Jonathan Stewart

7:23 – Incomplete pass

6:21 – 15-yard run by Fozzy Whittaker

5:56 – 2-yard run by Mike Tolbert

4:38 – 1-yard run by Fozzy Whittaker

1:15 – 0-yard run by Jonathan Stewart

0:17 – Minus 1-yard pass to Jonathan Stewart

 

Hard reading....  lots to think about

 

[KB_fan]

Listening now to an interesting podcast from WFNZ:  Mac talks with Travelle Wharton about the protection break down in the game:  Also Kevin Donnalley.

 

 

[KB_fan]

I know many of us are looking to move on from the Super Bowl analysis to thinking about the offseason, but there are still some good Super Bowl analysis articles being written as people get a chance to review film.  Here's one at MMQB

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/02/10/nfl-super-bowl-50-panthers-mistakes-cam-newton-mike-shula

Some of the "coulda - woulda - shoulda" moments & regrets for various moments of our offense:

 

I've excerpted the sections focusing on our Oline.  Oddly enough they only provide analysis for three of the five.

 

Quote

Andrew Norwell

It’s too bad you injured your hamstring. Those things happen. Before that, though, you weren’t having your best outing. Malik Jackson ate your lunch on a number of run plays, splitting your double-teams and shedding your blocks late. Don’t feel too bad; Jackson continued to do this even after you left the game. (Everyone knew the fifth-year defensive tackle had great quickness. Who knew he had this kind of refined technique and sheer strength? Most of his damage came as a 3-4 end in run D, not as a pass-rushing three-technique. The looming free agent made himself a lot of money Sunday night.)

 

Mike Remmers

Where to begin and end on this one? Obviously you regret getting beat twice outside by Von Miller for sack-fumbles near your own goal line. But you shouldn’t. After all, you knew you didn’t have the quickness to compete with Miller. Your coaches knew this, too, which is why they went with so many max protection packages in this game. The Broncos ate those alive by green-dog blitzing them. On that first sack-fumble, which resulted in Denver’s first touchdown, you were probably expecting fullback Mike Tolbert to get at least some contact on Miller when delivering chip block help. But that’s on Tolbert to regret, not you. (And Tolbert might not have room for that regret given that he had two fumbles to think about, including one that he lost just as the team’s power running game was starting to roll.) It’s possible that on the first sack-fumble, what you actually regret most is that you initially reacted to linebacker Danny Trevathan off the snap. Trevathan was lined up over your gap and for a split second you thought he might rush. That split second was all it took to get beat by Miller, who was aligned extremely wide (which might explain why Tolbert didn’t contact him). Bad as that play was, the second sack-fumble may have been worse just because on that play Newton was looking to hit wide receiver Devin Funchess, who was wide open on a deep sail route.

 

Ryan Kalil

In those unexpected five-man defensive lines that Denver played against your three-wide sets, nose tackle Sylvester Williams beat you on a handful of pass rushes. That’s not supposed to happen. By allowing the Broncos to get pressure from this unusual look, you removed their cost for employing it.

 

 

There are longer sections on Cam & Mike Shula....

[Panther53521]

On 2/9/2016 at 8:00 PM, KB_fan said:

Maybe this explains Cam's seeming tenseness / displeasure so early in the game long before it was out of reach and before he'd been hit too many times? 

Maybe he was frustrated with the coaching / game plan?  But who knows, it could have just been the Super Bowl nerves showing up as tightness.  But normally no game seems too big for Cam in terms of nerves, so maybe I lean toward the former.

Everyone knows, just like early in his career, When Cam is hyped up this throws are high. Shula should have known this and should have game planned for this with more screens and more runs for Cam early and with more easy throws to get him in a rhythm.

screens to slow the pass rush instead of trick plays. What happen to the slants to Ginn and Funchess that worked so great all year long and also worked the once to twice we did them in the SB. 

[KB_fan]

Really nice short film analysis of Kony Ealy's outstanding play in the Super Bowl
http://www.panthers.com/media-vault/videos/Ealy-Primed-For-Breakout-2016-Season-/bc0d130d-ee63-4f10-bf68-d4c4872cfa35

[KB_fan]

Greg Cosell breaks down the game film.  He focused a lot on Denver's interior pass rush as being key, more than even Miller and Ware...  VERY WORTH a listen.

 

 

 

[pstall]

If Carolina holds the ball and doesnt have half the flags they when by 10.

Execution was the deciding factor.  That's it.