Week 3 - Panthers Loss to Minnesota - misc stats & analysis

[KB_fan]

If you can stomach it...

A review of all 8 Vikings sacks of Cam

http://vikingsjournal.com/_/minnesota-vikings-news/defensive-dominance-a-film-breakdown-of-the-vikings-eight-sacks-against-cam-newton-r1333

I thought sack 3 was one of the real game changers.   Panthers were driving quite deep looking to add to lead before the half, then sack... and then interception. 

Here's their write up:

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Sack 3

The Vikings had returned a punt for a TD with time winding down in the 2nd Quarter. After a missed extra point, the Panthers looked to drive down the field and extend their lead before halftime. They started off the drive well, and got into Vikings' territory, nearing FG range. The Vikings were going to get the ball back after the half, and it was important to keep the game close. This brings up 2nd and 3 on the Vikings' 36-yard line:



The Vikings use a Double A gap look on defense and send all six players on a blitz. The Panthers keep six in to protect (and Olsen chips), which means that each blocker has one blocker needs to win for long enough to Cam to get a pass off. This doesn't happen, because Tom Johnson beats Andrew Norwell with a swim move and Brian Robison comes around Barr and Kendricks on a stunt, leading to a jailbreak of pressure up the middle:



Cam reacts to this by trying to spin out of the pocket to his left. He probably trusts LT Oher more in pass protection than he trusts Fozzy Whitaker, so this may have been his best option, but it turns out that Griffen has beaten Oher, and Everson makes a great move by extending one arm out and just dragging Cam to the ground. The play after this sack, Cam took a deep shot that was intercepted by Trae Waynes.

 

[KB_fan]

Reddit's post-game report has a very good breakdown of the good and the bad from the game:

https://www.reddit.com/r/panthers/comments/54rbj3/week_3_minnesota_at_carolina_postgame_report/

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The Good

Linebackers

Eventually I'm going to start leaving our linebackers out of the Good section simply to give other members of the team chances for recognition. Unfortunately, this game is forcing me to discuss them, since there wasn't too much good in the game. At 23 tackles, 2 QB hits, 1 sack, 3 TFLs, and a pass deflection, Kuechly and TD played like the hearts of the defense that they are. One thing you'll notice is when the rest of the team is looking and playing down and deflated, the Panthers duo never quits. It's amazing to see our linebackers continue with the tradition of another great Panthers linebacker, Sam Mills. They Kept Pounding.

Receivers Not Named Kelvin or Devin

With KB and Funchess completely shut out of the game, Cam was forced back into his 2015 gameplan of spreading the ball around to all his weapons. And that he did, among 7 players getting the ball, nobody was an overwhelming favorite. Olsen continues to show why he's one of the only maybe 2 elite tight ends in the league. Catching 6 for 64 today, Olsen is firmly in 1st place among tight ends for yards (259). Philly Brown got to show off the heart he had in the Super Bowl, catching 4 of his 5 targets. Ginn surprisingly caught all his balls, save for one in which he was tripped up on (which was a touchdown had he kept running). Even all our RBs got in on the fun, splitting between 7 receptions and 60 yards. It was one of the rare games where everybody was catching most, if not all, of the passes thrown at them. This will always prove beneficial when facing teams who've managed to delete our top 2 receivers from the game.

Run Defense

Another week, another <3 ypc game allowed. After a very rough start in Denver in which the Panthers allowed Anderson and Janovich have their way with them, the run stopping prowess of our team has heated up. It's almost a given that the Panthers will be at least top 10, maybe even top 5, in rush yards allowed by the end of the season, which should help apply pressure on opponents trying to throw on us.

1st Quarter Cam

5 for 5 at 83 yards and 2 rushes for 4 yards and a TD. Cam was looking his MVP self as he drove the Panthers twice down the field for 10 points in the first quarter. Unfortunately a safety and a rolled ankle brought Cam back to the ground, and he stopped looking as sharp. But he's still proving that he's gotten better as a passer, and running smarter only to extend drives. Given consistent protection, Cam has the capabilities to put together another MVP season, and for 3 straight quarters (49ers second half, Vikings 1st quarter) he looked to do so. Hopefully we can see the line step up this season and allow 1st quarter Cam become all game every game Cam.

 

The Bad and The Ugly

The Slop (again)

Slop was the first topic in last week's "The Bad" section and it's still here. Through three games the Panthers have committed 33 penalties (26 accepted) which is 5th highest in the NFL. It's inexcusable for 20 veteran starters and coaches that have been together this long to be executing so poorly.

Most of it falls on the offense with three delay of games, three false starts, five holding calls,and two OPI. Sure, things will likely get better when they aren't facing a top tier defense but they didn't play much cleaner against the 49ers.

The hold on Dickson erased a really nice 20 yard run by CAP and ultimately led to the safety and the illegal block by Benjamin that erased Fozzy's TD. These are massive mistakes that are counting on the scoreboard.

Cam Newton

It's becoming concerning how he plays against top defenses. Every throw feels like a desperate heave while holding the ball too long and not moving in the pocket.

While it's hard to blame a QB for getting sacked eight times but a few of them were situations where Newton could've stepped up or taken off sooner. It's partially the long routes being called but Cam has to make decisions faster even if it's throw away.

One thing that shouldn't matter against any defense is getting to the line with time to work with. Newton has to pick up the pace with the huddle and lining up. It's been an issue since last season and it's totally unacceptable for any 6th year QB to lack control of the clock this many times a game. Maybe it's the hits he's taking, either way it needs to be figured out.

Ron Rivera

Rivera gets his own section here because his team hasn't looked like the veteran squad they are all year. Sure they have the talent to blow a team like the 49ers out but they still turned the ball over four times and let a double digit lead get chipped to 7 before finally pulling away.

Two losses to two playoff teams with elite defenses isn't horrible but the inconsistent play has been visible since preseason. Preseason is always hard to gauge but compared to such a tight operation like the Patriots the Panthers simply didn't look good. Penalties put the offense in third and long and Cam held the ball for too long. What has changed?

Also, it's been a recurring theme for Rivera to whine about something every week. First he got in a tiff about media calling the opener a rematch, then on more than one occasion he complained about opening on the road, and last week he stormed off in a press conference. Regardless if he has a point in any of the situations, nobody wants to listen to these complaints when the veteran players are committing rookie penalties and the coordinators are getting totally out-coached. He obviously knows how to be a great coach but the complaining is getting old.

Mike Shula

Out-coached in the Super Bowl, out-coached after halftime in the rematch, out-coached for 3/4 quarters in the last game.

How many times does Newton have to be battered before they figure out some sort of quick passing game instead of long developing routes and no check downs? Credit the work he's done with Cam as a QB but typically a great OC shows his worth when they come up with game plans to counter aggressive defenses. It was debated whether last year's explosion of offense was due to Cam Newton making more audibles and that seems to be the case more and more.

McDermott's 2nd Half Defense

McDermott's defense played lights out in the first half giving up 34 net yards and they were never on the field for more than two and half minutes at a time. We should've seen a fresh defense play all out but like the script we are far too familiar with, the Vikings suddenly started looking like the team that was a full step ahead and dictating by establishing a decent run threat and then working the ball to Kyle Rudolph on play-action.

Not to take anything away from Norv Turner but we've seen a different defense come out after halftime since last season. The Vikings ended with 211 yards but it seemed like they went conservative with a 9 point lead and could've pressed for more if they needed. Can you imagine feeling good about sitting on a nine point lead?

Offensive Line

Defenses have figured out the max protect that worked last year and turned it into a green light to send the house at Cam. It's not just pressure off the edge, the Vikings continuously pushed the pocket back five yards off the line of scrimmage. Dealing with third and long is even harder when your QB has to drop an extra five yards from shotgun.

What's been most disappointing is that they look like a unit that was just put together rather than a unit that has been together for 20+ games. Oher had multiple plays that were arguably his worst as a Panther. This criticism isn't coming from expectations that he is a franchise LT but he needs to be at least decent against good DEs.

Running the ball hasn't been a whole lot better. If not for Cam's influence it's very questionable how good this line is and it starts on the edges. Even though the Panthers haven't been blown out since 2014, all of their losses were games in which they struggled to run the ball and they gave up. More so than pass protection, it's this weakness that makes the offense one dimensional which then forces the offense into third and long situations and sets up Remmers and Oher for failure. Just like in college, the deceptive offensive scheme can cover up weaknesses and run around weaker competition but fast and physical defenses will tear right through it.

Pass Rush

This was a measuring stick game for a defensive end unit that hadn't done much but still had the excuse of facing quick passing attacks. The Vikings still threw the ball short quite a bit but Bradford had days to throw in the second half. Bradford was constantly hit against the Packers but the Panthers DEs barely got a push. Truly frustrating to watch while the opponent rolls out three prototype DEs that can stop the run and chase down QBs like Cam and Russell Wilson. Short had five tackles but he definitely hasn't played like the DT he was asking to be paid like.

Wide Receivers

Kelvin had more penalties than targets. Funchess' drop inside the 25 led to the missed FG and then trying to one hand a deep ball instead of laying out really broke the Funchess hype train down until he does anything on the field.

Special Teams

A new year and a new found way for special teams to hijack games. Gano gets a pass because it wasn't his decision to kick outside his range which flipped field position and led to Lee punting from the back of the endzone. Mayo being hurt before that return may have scrambled the coverage unit but still, seeing the Vikings score a special teams TD is beyond annoying at this point. Ted Ginn also had a few questionable decisions to let punts go and not even block the gunner from downing it.

 

Honorable Mentions

Cameron Artis Payne

After an amazing show by Fozzy last week, I was certain he'd get the start again this week. But we decided to let CAP have his run, despite facing a defense that is shutting down the likes of DeMarco Murray and Eddie Lacy. But CAP balled out today. Racking up 47 yards rushing (not including a beautiful 30 yarder that was called back on one of many bone headed penalties) and a reception for 11 yards, CAP ran hard and fought for every yard he can get. Next week we face a horrible Falcons defense with JStew possibly out another week. It's easily within the realm of possibility that the lesser Cam, based on his play today, could hit his first triple digit yardage game.

Secondary

If I had told you, before the season had started, that our secondary consisting of 2 rookie corners and a backup safety would be bailing out our pass rush 3 games in, would you believe me? Or would I be checked in into the Glendale Hospital for the Criminally Insane? Well, it's happening. Stefon Diggs, a guy who just came off of two 100+ yard, multiple touchdown games was held to a measly 40 yards on 4 catches. The rest of the Vikings offense faired even worse, the lone offensive touchdown coming off of Rudolph beating Shaq down the field. This secondary held the normally long-bombing Sam Bradford to a pitiful 178 yards. Bradberry continues to impress by locking down Diggs and nearly walking away with another interception, while Worley brought the Peanut Punch back to the field for his second broken pass in 2 games. Gettlemagic continues to dominate this team as we pull together starting quality performance from yet another secondary setup. With all our starting corner 25 and younger, we really have a bright future at the position.

Andy Lee

I'm going to beat this horse till it's a pile of mush, but there is no greater feeling than having a good punter. I'm not going to fault Lee on the touchdown return simply because our return coverage has been, and is still, raw ass. I can't see how anybody in the FO will be content with a Special Team that ranks in the bottom year after year after year after year. Bringing in Lee was a good start.

 

 

[KB_fan]

I don't usually put the following words together in a sentence, but...

MUST READ ARTICLE by David Newton at ESPN.   (REALLY!)

http://www.espn.com/blog/carolina-panthers/post/_/id/22535/teams-frustrating-cam-newton-with-pressure-third-and-long-situations

He has a fantastic analysis of Panthers' 3rd & long situations.  It really is worth the time to check it out.  It explains a lot about Panthers current struggles.  This is an analysis that I was wanting to do myself, but just don't have time this week, and what David Newton & ESPN folks have written provides a very good starting point on this question.

 

Here's an excerpt:
 

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For the season, Newton has been hit an NFL-high 37 times. He has been sacked 12 times, a pace that would eclipse the 43 times he went down during the 2013 season.

Teams are blitzing Newton 35.5 percent of the time, the fifth-highest percentage in the NFL.

When under duress, according to ESPN Stats & Information, Newton is 8-for-22 (36.4 percent) passing this season with an average of 3.6 yards per attempt. If the pace continues, that would be his lowest completion percentage under pressure since 2012 (36.3) and his fewest yards per attempt since he entered the league.

To be fair, Newton has faced two of the NFL's best defenses in Minnesota and the Denver Broncos. They rank first and second in sacks with 15 and 12, respectively.

[.... discussion of Denver's blitzing against CAR in the Superbowl...]

But offensive coordinator Mike Shula isn't as concerned with the blitz as he is third-and-long.

The Panthers have faced third-and-6 or longer an NFL-high 31 times this season. That's already five more than they had at this time last season.

They had 12 situations of third-and-6 or longer against Minnesota, including eight of third-and-10 or longer.

By the way, they had 12 third-and-6 or longer situation in the Super Bowl, leading to a season-low 10 points.

 

 

[greghardy'sAK-47]

Here's one stat.  Seats 80% empty at 2nd half kickoff.  Us fans gotta do better than that.  Just a pathetic look for a fanbase, but it also makes the energy super low for 2nd half kickoffs.  That low energy in the stands can seep onto the field and from my objective perspective that's exactly what I witnessed on that first Vikings drive of the 2nd half.  Panthers had a chance to stop them on 3rd down a time or two and the place was just deadddd.  Literally like they were playing in an empty stadium. 

[KB_fan]

MUST READING at C-S-R.  

Jaxon has taken the time to do a very thorough analysis / break down of all the Panthers penalties in 2016 weeks 1 - 3.

Not only the easy stats of numbers of penalties and penalty yards; but also declined penalties and NULLIFIED YARDS (i.e. things like the lost Fozzy 53 yard Touchdown).

There's also a detailed table with penalty stats per player.

OUCH.  It's painful, but very illuminating and helpful reading to dig deeper into the issues surrounding the penalties so far this season.

Here's the link:

http://tinyurl.com/hefa6b2

Here's an excerpt:

For me its seems we have had a ton of penalties, some that were very costly. In the game book post I pointed out the Panthers are 5th in most penalties in the NFL and 6th in yards lost (215). The most recent example was the nullified 56 yard catch and run by Fozzy Whitaker against the Vikings.

Stats courtesy of NFL GSIS:

Panthers vs Opponents Penalty Yard Differential

Date	Opp	Result	CAR Penalties	Yards	Nullified Yards	1st Downs	OPP Penalties	Yards	Nullified Yards	1st Downs	Game	Season
9/8	DEN	L	8	85	22	1	4	22	0	1	-63	-63
9/18	SF	W	8	65	41	0	6	50	41	3	-15	-78
9/25	MIN	L	10	65	68	0	6	42	68	2	-23	-101
Total	--	1-2	36	215	130	1	16	114	109	6	--	-101

The total of 36 doesn't include another 7 that were declined. So that's 8.7 accepted penalties per game or 11 per game called. This is compared to 7.1 accepted penalties in 2015 (7.9 including declined). When you include the declined penalties it paints a starker picture. That's 3 additional penalties per game which may not sound like much but it's almost 4 per quarter penalties called. Result is 10 stalled drives over 3 games all because of typically stupid penalties.

It's also not just about the penalty yards which is 215 yards lost in 3 games. It also cost another 130 yards lost in the plays nullified. In addition to the 56 yard TD nullified last week we also lost a 28 yard gain versus the 49ers and a 22 yard gain versus the Broncos due to penalties.

 

So who are the culprits? Some surprises for sure:  (At the article you'll find the full table.... here are the top 6 players only)

Player	Count	Declined	Declined Yds	Nullified Yds	1st Down	Stalled Drive
Ryan Kalil	4	1	30	24	0	1
Kelvin Benjamin	3	0	30	46	0	2
Cam Newton	3	1	10	0	0	1
Trai Turner	2	0	25	28	0	1
Devin Funchess	2	0	20	0	0	1
Andrew Norwell	2	0	20	0	0	1

 

So that is the leader of the OL with the most penalties though I will say we have 9 players with at least two. The overall total is pretty spread out which is even more discouraging because so many players are making mistakes. Seems this is just the kind of thing Rivera was warning the team about during training camp.

So what was the most common penalty? It's not even close in this regard:  (At the article you'll find the full table with all the called penalties)

Penalty	Count	Declined	Yards	Nullified Yards	First Downs	Stalled Drive
Offensive Holding	10 (30)	2	64 (28)	60	0	3 (20)

 

 

[KB_fan]

Been digging more deeply into the NFL GSIS stats page, and have discovered a VERY VERY helpful page where you can compare any team's current basic offensive & defensive stats to the current league averages.

It's pretty revealing for the Panthers as of weeks 1-3.  Our weakness is on Offense & Special Teams MUCH MUCH more than on defense.

Have a look:  (click on the table to see a larger view / to zoom)

On offense, we're doing well in rushing, doing ok (better than average) in 3rd down conversion.  Doing VERY well in Red Zone scoring.  (Our trouble has been getting in the Red Zone).

Our offensive weakness is in the passing game:  notably sacks & interceptions.

We're also weak in punt returns.  Better in K/O returns.

On defense and defensive ST, we're above average across the board other than in punt return coverage.  Obviously we're slightly below average in points allowed, but given that our offense and ST have turned the ball over 8 times, that level of points allowed is much better than it could be....

[KB_fan]

Greg Cosell's film analysis of the game.  Very worth reading.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/greg-cosells-film-study-whats-different-with-panthers-and-cam-newton-223537181.html