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16 Kinda Meh

About ReekRhymesWithFleek

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  1. Devin Funchess is officially the Panthers' #1 receiver

    Ahhhhhh, you're right. Huge brainfart on my end. In the 3 non-Saints games: Kelvin Benjamin -- 17 targets Devin Funchess -- 17 targets So I stand corrected
  2. It's fitting that Devin Funchess established himself as Carolina's #1 receiver in a victory where he scored two touchdowns. With 9 targets against the Patriots, Funchess now has been targeted 27 times this season. This puts him on pace for 108 targets, which would put him in line with Steve Smith in 2013 (109 targets). Funchess had been targeted 59 and 64 times in his first two seasons respectively so needless to say, this is a big leap for him. (Side note: I think it's notable Cam looked for Funchess on a key 3rd down on the GW drive when they needed it most.) Conversely, Kelvin Benjamin, who was targeted an obscene 146 times his rookie season and 118 times last year, is on pace for just 76 targets in 2017. It seems likely that Benjamin will get more looks than he has as the season goes on, but this trend to start the season is difficult to ignore. Obvious point, but one still worth noting: when I say Funchess is Carolina's #1 receiver, I strictly mean wide receiver. Christian McCaffrey, who's on pace for 116 targets this year, and (when he returns) Greg Olsen, who has averaged 117 targets per season the last five years, are obviously the primary receiving threats in this offense.
  3. Jesus Christ dude. Learn to read. Nobody ever said these issues were going to change the offense from being bad to being good. Nobody ever said the offense being bad isn't a severe problem. Nobody ever said the offense was going to become amazing in the end zone. In fact, I proved to you how it could be the second worst in the league (decidedly not amazing) and perform almost twice as efficiently as they are currently. "...crack the whip and make an already great defense all of a sudden force more turnovers is just willful dumbassery." It's "just willful dumbassery" to expect a great defense (by most estimations a Top 5-10 defense in the league) to not be the worst in the NFL at forcing turnovers? It's "just willful dumbassery" to expect a great defense to not consistently go consecutive games without forcing a turnover (first time it had happened in 3 years)?
  4. I bet you thought this was a brilliant analogy when you typed it out. Sad!
  5. Even if they remain the second least efficient red zone offense in the NFL, there's no way they only convert 25% of red zone trips into touchdowns. The second least efficient red zone offense in the NFL in 2016 was Houston, which turned 44% of red zone trips into touchdowns, almost twice as good as Carolina's current rate. "It's ridiculous to blame our scoring woes on the defense not forcing enough turnovers." Turnovers are a part of the game. To act like they aren't is to be willfully ignorant.
  6. It's a misleading thread if you choose to not read the points the original post made. Or if you didn't even read the title and realize the post wasn't about the OFFENSE, it's about SCORING POINTS. Btw, you know what's a great way to get to the red zone? The defense forcing turnovers and creating a short field for the offense.
  7. You're right, I *did* cherry pick the stats. I cherry picked the stats that directly correlate to scoring points. (Would you have preferred I made my point by picking stats out of a bag?). If you noticed, the title of the post was "Why the Panthers' scoring struggles aren't as bad as they appear," not "Why the Panthers' offensive struggles aren't as bad as they appear." I'm strictly talking about points here. I never implied the Panthers need to "force a ton of turnovers" or "be super efficient in the red zone." I said the Panthers probably wouldn't finish last in forcing turnovers this year and they probably won't have the worst red zone efficiency of all-time. Hell, even converting 50% of red zone trips into touchdowns would've ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league last year. If only I understood statistics.
  8. I cited lots of "actual data" bud. That "actual data" shows that it's extremely unlikely Carolina continues to struggle in the red zone at the current rate and extremely unlikely Carolina continues to force turnovers at the low rate they currently are. The Panthers have played 3 games so far, too small of a sample size to base too many conclusions on. That's why it's illuminating to cite "actual data" from years past. Or do you think the Panthers will set a record for red zone futility and be the worst team in the league at forcing turnovers?
  9. Nobody has said that the offense has been great, or even average. Just saying that it's not time to act like the sky is falling and there are reasons beyond Cam's hopefully improving health to be positive that Carolina can score enough points to win games. And it's not a coincidence that the Panthers' best scoring game came against San Francisco when the defense forced two turnovers and created short fields for the offense. They were 1/3 in the red zone that game so, like the original post said, more than just red zone performance to point to.
  10. No team last year finished with 25% TD conversion rate in the red zone. As bad as Carolina's been this year, there's no way it doesn't improve at least a little bit.
  11. "Give actual data." Lol half the post is data!
  12. Lol did you actually read the post? The defense forcing more turnovers has nothing to do with the predictability of the playcalling
  13. There is no doubt that there are fundamental issues with the Carolina offense that need to be improved, including chemistry with new pieces, consistency from Cam Newton coming off surgery, and health. However, things aren't quite as bad as they seem. Red zone woes and a failure to create turnovers have exaggerated the offensive struggles. Between minor anamolies in those departments, Carolina has left 7 PPG per game on the table. Here's how I got that number. The Panthers are a combined 2-8 at converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns this season. That means that out of a possible 56 points in the red zone, Carolina has only scored 32, leaving 24 points on the board. Or, averaged out over 3 games, 8 points per game. If the Panthers had converted even half of those lost opportunities (5-8 would be 62.5%, right in line [with league average]. (https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct), they would average 4 PPG a game more. That would take them from 15 PPG, 29th in the league to 19 PPG, 18th in the league. Remember, red zone statistics are [somewhat random].(http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/BarnwellNFLPreview160729/nfl-best-worst-red-zone-means-2016-season) Despite demonstrating traits of a dominant unit (1st in yards allowed/2nd in points allowed), the Panthers defense has only forced 2 turnovers in the team's first 3 games. They're currently on pace to force 11 turnovers this year, which would've been the fewest in the NFL last year. That seems unlikely to continue. Even if we assume the Panthers simply force turnovers at an average rate this year (and Carolina has been 7th, 1st, and 10th in turnovers forced the past 3 seasons respectively so there's reason to think they'll be above average again), we'd expect Carolina to have created twice as many turnovers as they have as of now. How does that translate to points? If we operate under the premise that turnovers are worth 4 points (this is a bit loose, but this works in a general sense [as explained here], (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2003/how-many-points-turnover-worth), the Panthers have created an average of 2.5 PPG via turnovers in 2017. Creating turnovers at an average rate (the Falcons were the median last year with 22 turnovers) would translate to an average of 5.5 PPG via turnovers -- that's an average of 3 PPG left on the table b/c of turnovers not being forced. Add that 3 PPG from the turnovers to the 4 PPG from the red zone woes and you have 7 points missed out on per game. That's the difference between scoring the 4th fewest points in the NFL (15 PPG) and being exactly league average (22 PPG). Again, there's plenty of reason for concern, but hopefully these numbers help you realize that it's not quite time to panic yet.