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Drafting a Guard in the first round


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#91 Growl

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 02:22 PM


lol since when was the draft about taking a "sure thing"

It's about making your team as good as possible. Not "zomg we can't risk drafting a bust! I'm so scared of busts! I cry every night over the Thought of drafting a bust!!"

It's fairly simple really, when you run a Marty Hurney drafting approach that is designed to take the SPA (Safest Player Available) you build an organization that is going to constantly hit 7-9.

When you draft to make your team as good as possible, you take your lumps, but the bang you get from selecting good players at valuable positions equals perennial success.



You take the best player available... Warmack will be a 12 yr starter in this league. The only position I would consider taking over Warmack would be a Future LT (Johnson) he isn't going to fall past San Diego. There are no other players that are a sure thing, ill take a stud over a bust any day.



#92 Mr. Scot

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:01 PM

I'm not a fan of the whole "you don't draft this position at this level" mindset. There are exceptiopns (taking a kicker at #1 overall, for example) but generally speaking, I say if you think Player X is the best guy to take at your spot, then take him.

#93 rayzor

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:09 PM

I agree too. However, the first round this year really sucks compared to previous years. Maybe I am wrong here, but i look at it this way:

If I can draft a top CB, DE, LOT, or QB in the first, then that is five years I am not having to pay a player on a second contract at that position. Some DEs make $15 million, for example. No Guards do. A solid G runs you about $5-7 million on a second contract.

We can have 2 starting veteran guards for the same price one DE is paid.

So basically, I am suggesting that you have one DE, DT,and CB on a rookie contract at all times. If not, you run the risk of having 20% of your salary cap at one position that is NOT QB.

Next year, we could be sitting at the negotiating table with Greg Hardy's agent, who will be throwing Charles Johnson's contract at Gettlemen. If he comes close to getting CJ $$, we are talking about $22 million for defensive ends.

By playing one DE on a rookie deal at all times, your DE expense is about $8 million cheaper. hypothetically, the DE plays out the 5 year rookie contract while his counterpart enters a 5-year second contract. The savings, $8 million or so, is enough to pay for 2 veteran guards on second contracts.

I realize that it is not that easy, but the concept is solid.

Do the same thing at CB. One second contract, one rookie deal. When the CB hits 30, re-sign your player on a rookie contract to a second contract and draft a rookie.

Do the same thing at DT.

Do the same thing at WR. Essentially--and extremely hypothetically--you draft one of these key positions most years. Marty did not do this--he neglected CB, WR, DT, and even QB. Instead, he drafted safe, easy-to-find positions like RB (2), OL, LB most recently.

So, essentially, your first rounders are loosely restricted to a few, expensive positions, unless a player is overwhelmingly better than the rest.

Chance Warmack could be that exception. However, I KNOW some starting-quality rookie Guards will drop to the fourth round.

SOLID post and totally agreed. great concept.

and solid guards always drop because it's just not a premium position. if you scout well, you find those guys.

#94 kman72

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:13 PM

lol since when was the draft about taking a "sure thing"

It's about making your team as good as possible. Not "zomg we can't risk drafting a bust! I'm so scared of busts! I cry every night over the Thought of drafting a bust!!"

It's fairly simple really, when you run a Marty Hurney drafting approach that is designed to take the SPA (Safest Player Available) you build an organization that is going to constantly hit 7-9.

When you draft to make your team as good as possible, you take your lumps, but the bang you get from selecting good players at valuable positions equals perennial success.



There have always been such thing as a sure thing. It gets complicated when you look at a prospect and attempt to place a trouble word on it. That word is called "Potential"

There is a time and place to take risk with a boom or bust player, Cam Newton for example was a risk/reward pick that we needed at the time. We were in serious trouble as a franchise without a QB and he was the player with most POTENTIAL to change the franchise.

This year if Warmack is there he fits a huge need and would be the BPA. You cant look at where a player should go, look at if he helps your team and go with it.

#95 rayzor

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:21 PM

I'm not a fan of the whole "you don't draft this position at this level" mindset. There are exceptiopns (taking a kicker at #1 overall, for example) but generally speaking, I say if you think Player X is the best guy to take at your spot, then take him.

it can never and should never be as simple as just that.

need must be accounted for in that decision...like if the BPA is a MLB or a QB or an RB...do we really take one over DT, CB, WR, FS, etc.?

also, what is my board looking like for that position later? can i find someone of nearly equal value later? is there a thinner grouping for this position than others?

is this position as crucial for the team as others, esp. crucial enough to warrant this early selection?

there's just too many factors to take in.

#96 BigSyke

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:22 PM

my list to a good offense

1.qb(cam newton)
2.oline(star left tackle first priority)
3.star deep threat wr1+wr2(harrison/wayne)
4.slot wr(quick+good route runner+sure hands)/te(catch+block+tall mismatch in redzone)
5.rb(good vision+ game speed+ break tackles+catch out of backfield)

#97 The Huddler

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:45 PM

Im tired of seeing our RBs get smacked in the backfield. We need OL. Im cool with Warmack

#98 PrettyKitty

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 04:05 PM

Well, I think this discussion is all for naught; Warmack will be gone before pick 15 comes around....Any other guard available is not worth the 15th pick, IMO...

#99 Happy Panther

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 04:24 PM

Well, I think this discussion is all for naught; Warmack will be gone before pick 15 comes around....Any other guard available is not worth the 15th pick, IMO...


Warmack is apparently that good. Some are saying he is the best talent in the draft.

I wouldn't undervalue the G position. A stud there improves the whole line. Maybe it's a solution to keeping Gross on the left side. Wouldn't be my expected pick but this draft has us taking him.

http://www.cbssports...ftscout-RobRang

#100 NCstoner420

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 04:36 PM

I was on the Warmack train before the combine but he seemed like he wasn't all there when doing all the drills. I hope he shows up for his pro day on the 13th.


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