CPantherKing

High ceiling means 3 coaching staffs and 12+ years to be a championship contending QB. Same trajectory for Justin Fields. He may need 4 coaching staffs.

Skewing? That was raw data from the last 15 seasons. I'll throw you the opportunities for the SB era if you want it. Also, players drafted does not equate to opportunities. There are far more players drafted than there are opportunities and there were fewer opportunities in the 60s and 70s. Do you know why?

There have been 169 franchise QB opportunities in the past 15 seasons since the 2008 draft. 120 QBs have been awarded these opportunities, and 57 of them have been 1st round QBs. 50 of these QBs (88%) have gone to the playoffs (26 have been 1st round picks). 31 have won a playoff game. 19 have been to a conference championship. 12 have been to a SB. 5 have won the SB. With the teams that drafted them, 10 1st rounders went to a championship game, 5 (50%) won their conference, and 2 (20%) won the SB. All other QBs who did this for their first team/drafted team, 5 went to a championship game, 4 (80%) won their conference championship, and 2 (40%) won the SB. If you stick with a QB regardless of round, you will get to the playoffs. 1st round QBs will do well at winning playoff games and getting to a championship game. When it comes to winning conference championships and SB championships, good non-1st round QBs out perform their good 1st round QB counterparts at the highest level. You are better off with a QB that does not come from the 1st round if the goal is a championship. This has held since the 1960s. Dynasty QBs with longevity are consistently non-1st rounders. A team can move through 3 non-1st round QBs at the same rate teams move on from a 1st round QB who struggles to get to a conference championship game. Do you want 3 shots at a more successful championship/dynasty QB, or do you want 1 shot at a QB that will win more playoff games while seeing the same amount of championship success if not less? Make what you want from the data, but this is what it tells me. You can hang on to that #1 pick and win playoff games, but you'd have a better shot at being a championship team with a non-1st rounder. Good 1st rounders will take 6 to 7 years on average to win a championship. Good non-1st rounders will take 3 to 4 years to win a championship. Keep in mind that SB champion coaches have a 3 to 5 year window to win a SB.

I expect to see that the results with Beathard, Hoyer, Lance, and Mullens is the result of Shannahan. Garappolo and Purdy were just better QBs. Darnold will prove that to be true as he struggle with Shannahan like many other QBs.

A 35 stack defense with Chinn, Shaq, and Luvu on the inside is what I hope they do. Drop Chinn out to S for a traditional 34 with 3+ WR formations.

The coaching staff change was a correct championship move, but the roster building strategy for a team without any foundation/culture (if trading up for the #1 pick and taking a QB) has never proven to be successful in the NFL over 6 decades. Glad they have a couple 28+ proven receiving options to pair with any QB they choose. Going to need a top 10 defense for a few seasons at the least to cover for a young QB to even have a shot at the playoffs. Someone always has to be first though for the fans who hang their hat on hope. Said the same thing for Gettleman, Rhule, and now Fitt. I like Reich, but with the roster building if it goes the way most people are cheering for, odds are a #1 pick QB will be the end for Reich and a second coaching staff will have to take the developed QB (if good) the rest of the way.

That's typical of QBs who go on to win the SB for the first time. He won a playoff game and he is 14th of all active QB in playoff pass attempts in the playoffs. Flacco, Foles, and Dalton are on that list and they no longer start with 2 of them winning SBs. So, 10 QBs with more playoff experience, and you are expecting what QB to start of the Panthers? The QBs you think are good must be QBs who have gone on to win SBs? Well, those QBs don't win for other teams unless they are 40 year old GOAT QBs. I will not be surprised if Lamar is the Panthers target after they leverage the draft and offset the expensive cost to acquire Lamar.

I'm good with Thielen as a 32 year old receiver. Same as I would with Travis Kelce, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Anquan Boldin in their early 30s (4 of the 6 leading playoff receivers since 2012). I do not expect him to be the physical workhorse receiver that will be the primary target. That receiver I would want to be 26 to 28 with a few years of proven potential under their belt. The prime age for any QB or receiver to be an NFL champion is 29 years or older. 2022 Chiefs top 4 targets were 28 years or older (2 over 30;#1 33). Over the past 10 NFL Champions, there have been 40 players with 50 or more targets on the season. 9 have been 30 years or older, 22 have been 28 years or older. 7 of the 10 teams #1 targeted WR/TE have been 28 or older (4 of the 7 have been 30 years or older). 2 of the other 3 were 27. This has held up over history too with the Packers of the 60s, the Steelers of the 70s, the 49ers/Washington of the 80s with the passing offense emerging as a championship formula, the Cowboys/Broncos of the 90s, and the Patriots of the 2000s, It's rare to find a championship team with QB and receivers 25 and under. Those teams lose more often and are 1 and done in the playoffs. You can even go back to the aerial show in the 1992 playoffs with Frank Reich 31 and Warren Moon 36 at QB in the playoffs and see that Andre Reed 28, James Lofton 36, Don Beebe 28 Pete Metzelaars 32, Haywood Jeffries 28, Webster Slaughter 28, Curtis Duncan 27, and Ernest Givins 28 were the receivers. I want receivers in the age range of 28 to 34 with proven success. I want a QB 29 to 32 who has been to playoffs a few times (winning is not needed). For a championship team, the only positions I want to start young and hold onto them as long as they produce are RB, OL, EDGE, and LB. The other positions are only good young if you have an established team or vet championship players to carry them.

XYZ is not a role. It is a physical location on the field necessary for the rules of the game - Split End, Tight End, Slot, and Flanker. These locations differ in your "role characteristics" based on the type of offense and offensive coaches system. Gronk played slot. Y is a TE, but the Y differs in systems and sets while always referring to the location of the receiver. Gronk would also line up as the X. Jimmy Graham too. Then you have small receivers that play the Z and move to the Y is some sets. They are still the 1 and will run a 1 route from the Y. Thielen and Randy Moss would run a 2 from the X or Z. I'm not the one who came up with 1 up is 1, 2 up is 2, or 2 up is 1 to refer to WR coaching. Anyone who thinks Flanker, Split End, Tight End, and Slot are static roles that have defined characteristics wouldn't be very good at breaking down the receivers in a Run and Shoot, WCO, Air, Spread, Pistol, Power, and Pro. The XYZ (Split, Tight/Slot, and Flanker) are not the same across all these systems. Roles would be possession, deep threat, route runner, big/shift slot. Open a book by an actual championship coach and see what they wrote. Stop watching your YT videos of people who don't even play or coach and just want your views. Tell the SB offensive coaching minds they are wrong in their philosophy of a 1, 2, and 3 receiver. Tell them they have been talking in fantasy terms for decades. Bill Walsh disagreed with you and your sources.

I know about Cousins. I'm not saying he is not better than the others. I am saying Thielen has performed at a high level with all QBs, and Cousins is not the reason Thielen has been able to produce. If anything, Thielen has been the reason the Vikings passing game has been one of the most productive since 2016. The one down year for the passing game was 2019 with Thielen out for almost half the season. Cousins was the QB that year.

xyz are locations of receivers and not types of receiver. 123 are types of receivers and will follow with the 1 getting more targets than 2 and 2 getting more targets than 3. Bill Walsh's 1 was a receiver over 6' with great hands and the ability to compete for balls and run precise routes. Frank Reich's 1 is a 6-4 225+ WR with decent speed that has good hands and will body up defenders to physically wear them down. Reid's 1 is extremely fast with good hands and great quickness out of their breaks to get separation with little contact. Every coach has a different type and will make them their 1 to receive the most targets. Their 1s can typically play the X and Z locations with the possibility of the Y location (usually a TE or SE position). 1s will work the sidelines to extend the secondary, and they can be moved to a 2 inside with a route designed to cross to the sideline which makes them the 1. Have you ever heard '2 up is 1'? Receivers/Coaching 101. Read Bill Walsh's book which is considered the Bible of football for NFL coaches.

Not disappointed. You just failed to look at Thielen's overall value which goes beyond Cousins and Jefferson. Hate to wake you up, but Bridgewater, Bradford, Keenum, and Cousins have been throwing to Thielen. He has been productive with all of them and Cousins is superior to none of them when you look at Thielen with his 70% catch. Thielen as a #2 is more important to the success of Jefferson and Cousins than Jefferson and Cousins are to Thielen. The data is clear on this. If I thought DJ Chark was Justin Jefferson, I'd say the #1 spot would be filled. I did not. Chark is not going to be a #1 in Reich's system. Thielen as a #2 will make it easier on the #1 WR, the TE, and the QB.

Lamar Jackson, some Colts players and a pool of 2nd/3rd round picks are the target (~10 total draft picks for 2023). Just need 2 1st round picks to get Jackson. Texans will easily give up 1 for Bryce Young. Colts will easily give up 1 for for CJ Stroud. Lions may trade up to 4 to jump the Seahawks for Anthony Richardson to give the Panthers another 1st round pick. There would be other picks that come with the compensation packages to convince the Panthers to give up these QBs to the Texans, Colts, and Seahawks. After giving the Texans and Colts what they want, the Panthers have 2 2024 1st round picks and the #6 pick this year. That is more than enough to get Lamar Jackson. So, the Panthers are choosing from 3 QBs here. Young, Stroud, and Jackson. If the Panthers can deal Richardson to the Seahawks and Levis to the Raiders, that is a bonus. After the draft, all the Panthers need as capital to get Lamar Jackson is two of the highest value 1st round picks from the 2024/2025 season from the Texans, Colts, Raiders, and Panthers. Compensation for Young and Stroud will likely be their 1st round pick this year, 2024 1st round pick, and 2 second round picks. For Richardson and Levis, I would say 1st round picks this year and next, 3rd round pick, and 5th round pick. I think Reich would want to try to get a player or two from the Colts in a trade. At the least, Panthers end up with Lamar Jackson, Colts player(s), #4 pick, 3 2nd round picks, a 2024 1st round pick, and a 2024 2nd round pick (If the Texans and Colts want Young and Stroud). If the Lions and Raiders want Richardson and Levis, the Panthers could add to those 2nd and 3rd round picks this year and 1st round picks next year. That is the value of the QB driver seat in 2023 with overrated QBs - especially when you have coaches connected to the Colts and Lions. Panthers focus on the maneuvering of draft picks to eliminate the draft capital expense for acquiring Lamar Jackson. If they can't get the Texans and Colts to pay the picks to get Lamar Jackson while at least breaking even on what they gave up to move up into the driver seat, then they have their fall back with Stroud or Young if they do waste all that draft capital on an unproven rookie QB. Lamar Jackson is still an option. Fitt called him a great but expensive option, and they want to focus on draft picks now. A Lamar Jackson offer sheet would happen after the draft if the Panthers get everything they want while dictating who gets each of the 4 QBs. Tepper loves leverage and deals, and he will continue to take the Carolina fan base on this wild ride. Dealing Young and Stroud to the Texans and Colts is a very good possibility if the Panthers get their asking price.

Replacing DJ Moore's production? You can reach into a hat and pick out any WR. 9 targets per game; 59.1% catch; 8.4 ypt; 41.1% 1st; 3.4% TD. Ashton Dulin 63.5% catch; 8.7 ypt; 44.2% 1st; 5.8% TD In case you don't know the name, he is from Malone University and went undrafted. He has been the #4 WR for the Colts under Reich the last 2 seasons and Reich has had him on the Colts roster all 4 seasons he has been there. Toss him 9 targets a game and he outperforms DJ Moore. No need for money ball here. You can throw darts at a board and not worry about losing production. Not hard to find 4 WRs who can produce better than DJ Moore. You can draft 4 rookies in mid to late rounds in this draft and get better production from all of them with Cam Newton and his bum shoulder throwing to them. Moore has had 5 seasons to show he can be a playmaker, and Reich did not see it just like the entire fan base that kept hoping he was a legit #1. Moore will be a good #2 somewhere, but Thielen is a better and more reliable #2.

There aren't many WRs in the draft that fit what Reich would want in his #1. Quentin Johnston (1st), Bryce Ford-Wheaton (late 2nd), Dontay Demus Jr (3rd/4th), and Elijah Higgins (4th/5th). Reich will push to reach for a receiver he believes fits his system. Only TE in the draft that fits what Reich wants in a TE is Zach Kuntz. I'm sure Reich will be working/asking on getting Jelani Woods and Nick Foles from the Colts in a trade package with the Colts. I could see Reich placing all these rookie WRs as the #1 target in his offense and having Thielen over or under the rookie as the #2 reliable option. These are not my top WRs of choice from the draft to build an offense, but I get what Reich is doing with his offense and wanting a WR that will physically wear down a secondary over the course of a game.

Don't deflate them all now with reality. They want to believe this is how championship teams are built before the new coaches can even get reps with their new team that needs a new culture and a foundation that has yet to be put in place. Chark wanted a longer contract at more money. Reich wanted Chark as depth for his 3 WR offensive fit. So, rent him for a year and take care of that depth spot next season. Reich needs to find his big work horse/playmaker #1 WR now. Thielen is the #2 and Chark is the #3. Still a big void for Reich's play calling at that WR position. I believe he'll target a WR in the draft for that spot.

You are better off avoiding a 1st round QB unless they are a consensus pedigree 5 star QB who has had consistent success in college over 4 years. You will miss a lot more than you hit and waste the draft capital needed to build a championship roster. My standard for a top 10 pick QB is instant starter, playoff winner, consistent SB contender, and min 10 year career. Otherwise, you are just as well off drafting the 1st round QB who falls out of the 1st round. 85% of QBs who are given a franchise QB opportunity make it to the playoffs. Doesn't matter what round. 1st round picks actually get to the playoffs 80% of the time. 6th round to undrafted QBs who are given the franchise QB opportunity get to the playoffs 90% of the time. The top 10 QBs you listed who are given a franchise QB opportunity get to the playoffs 70% of the time. My standard of success for QBs related to their draft position is not who gets drafted or who gets a franchise QB opportunity. I want to know what QBs successfully lead their draft team for multiple years. Level 1 success is getting the team to the playoffs. Level 2 success is winning with their team in the playoffs. Level 3 success is getting their team to a championship. Level 4 success is winning a championship and getting to the SB with their drafted team. Level 5 success is winning the SB with their team. Break each level of success down by round. You will be surprised how overrated 1st round QBs have been and continue to be. 1st round QBs who have failed their draft position and redeemed themselves with another team at the SB level happen every decade. Jim Plunkett/Doug Williams from the 70s. Steve Young from the 80s. Trent Dilfer from the 90s. Matthew Stafford from the 2000s. There will be one of the many failed 1st round QBs from the 2010s that will add themselves to this list (Panthers fans have been hoping to find this rare failure through their lineup of Bridgewater, Darnold, and Mayfield). My money is on Lamar Jackson achieving this once in a decade feat.

No. It's in the CBA if you want to read the legalese details on how it works. It's 'no first refusal' is separated throughout the document.

This tells me that Houston knows they are getting Bryce Young at #1. Carolina agrees to trade the #1 pick to the Texans as long as the Texans do what they want. They have agreed to compensation and that the Texans will not pursue Stroud. Now, the Panthers set their targets on convincing the Colts to trade up for Stroud. So, an army shows up for the Panthers and no one shows up for the Texans. What does this tell the Colts? It tells them that they are not getting Young and if they want Stroud, they need to agree to a deal with the Panthers. I expect the Colts and Texans to not be showing up at all to Levis and Richardson pro days. The Panthers meant it when they said they wanted to control the draft, and they are doing it one pro day at a time. I expect the Panthers to get the #2, #12, #33, and 2024 2nd round pick from the Texans in exchange for Young. Before Levis' pro day, I expect the Panthers to have an agreement made with the Colts for the #4, #35, TE Jelani Woods, and 2024 1st round pick from the Colts in exchange for position for Stroud. Also, the Colts will agree to not show up to the pro days for Levis and Richardson. At this point, the Panthers line up the Seahawks, Lions, and Raiders for the position to get their QB. One of them will give up picks to jump to the #4 spot for their pick of QB. I believe it will be the Lions wanting to jump the Seahawks for Richardson. Lions give up their #6, #18, 2024 2nd round pick, and 2024 5th round pick. The Panthers arrange a deal with Raiders to move up to 6 and take Will Levis contingent on the Seahawks passing on Levis. Raiders give up #7, #38, 2024 1st round and 2024 4th round. Panthers trade #18 and a 2024 1st round pick for Lamar Jackson. Panthers turn #9, #61, 2024 1st round, 2025 2nd round, and DJ Moore into... Panthers have #7, #12, #33, #35, #38, #39, QB Lamar Jackson, TE Jelani Woods, 2024 1st round pick, 2x 2024 2nd round pick, 2024 4th round pick, and 2024 5th round pick. Panthers draft DT/DE Jalen Carter, WR Quentin Johnston, EDGE Nolan Smith, NT/DT Siaki Ika, NT/DT Mazi Smith, RB Israel Abanikanda, TE Zach Kuntz, RB Chase Brown, WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton, and DB Cory Trice Jr with their 10 draft picks. QB-Lamar Jackson/Andy Dalton RB-Miles Sanders/Israel Abanikanda/Chase Brown TE-Hayden Hurst/Jelani Woods/Zach Kuntz/Tommy Tremble WR-Quentin Johnston/Adam Thielen/(DJ Chark)/Terrace Marshall Jr/Bryce Ford-Wheaton/Laviska Shenault OL-Bradley Bozeman/Taylor Moton/Austin Corbett/Ikem Ekwonu/Brady Christensen DL-Derrick Brown/Siaki Ika/Mazi Smith/Jalen Carter EDGE-Brian Burns/Nolan Smith ILB-Jeremy Chinn/Shaq Thompson/Frankie Luvu CB-Jaycee Horn/CJ Henderson/Cory Trice Jr/Donte Jackson S-Vonn Bell/Xavier Woods Not exactly what I would want, believe are the best players in the draft, or believe will be the best in the NFL. This is what I believe Reich/Fitterer/Tepper will want to achieve going in to the 2023 season. Let's see it play out. Tepper is going to take the entire NFL for a wild ride in the draft just like he has with this coaching staff. It doesn't stop with trading up for the #1 pick and simply drafting a QB.

So, defense is more important than offense to this Reich led coaching staff to set the foundation of the team. A coach who likes to load up on 2nd round picks to set up his roster in the first 2 years, loads up on defensive picks in the early rounds of the first 2 drafts (6 defensive and 1 offensive skill position in rounds 1 to 3) and skill position players on day 3 of the draft. Yet, the thinking is they want a QB with the #1 pick who is not a consensus #1 franchise QB from day 1. No chance they stockpile 2nd round picks by baiting QB hungry teams and go after their top defensive player in the 2023 draft. Right?

In a Reich offense, he builds the passing game around 8 receivers - 3 WRs, 3 TEs, and 2 RBs. They need to be strong and tough. He wants tall TEs. WRs and TEs need have 4.5 speed and RBs need to be sub 4.5. Appears to me Reich wants 1 vet leader at RB and TE that fits his system. I expect he will want to draft 2 TEs. Zach Kuntz is the only TE that fits what Reich wants. Jelani Woods was that TE build last year. He wants excellent TE speed, height, and great hands in his TE. If QB is not the target with the #1, I could see the Panthers switching spots with the Texans so they can have Bryce Young, and then swapping with the Colts so they can have CJ Stroud. The Panthers could pick up 3 2nd round picks and Jelani Woods by moving down to #4. The Panthers could have Hayden Hurst, Jelani Woods, and Zach Kuntz for their TE packages. Panthers would also add the #33, 35, and 65 picks to go along with the #4 and 39 pick. This would add immediate impact players at several positions to pair with the vets that have been signed.

Be sure to inform Evero and Capers about this since they messed up and went with 6-3 240 OLBs in Denver. Browning and Cooper were the OLBs that got the starts for the Broncos. Chubb is the unusual 34 OLB at his size. The average for their OLBs was 6-3 252. Evero goes with long and fast OLBs. Will Anderson is exactly what Evero looks for in a 34 OLB while being a half inch taller and 1 pound heavier. You should also know the DE is over the OT in a 34 defense. You do not know about a 34 defense and position responsibilities/matchups. Clearly it is common in 2022 and Evero will go with smaller OLBs than Will Anderson. I used Capers 34 defense in Carolina as an example, but I guess you don't know much about that era for the Panthers. As for Ekwonu, you can stop the lies in hopes people will believe you. I have never said he is a bust. You all keep that going. I said he is an ALL PRO Guard playing/struggling with his pass blocking at LT. You keep an eye on Glass. He is still around, and the NFL QB position has a long history of successful franchise QBs coming from other professional leagues.

Tell me you don't know what an edge/spur/dog does in a 34/35 defense without telling me you don't know. I'll let Kevin Greene and Lamar Lathon know they can't be 34 OLBs in a defense that can win because they are some of the worst tackling and coverage LBs in NFL history.

Watch as the Panthers target Will Anderson to complete the best 34 LB combo to keep their promise to Evero/Capers. Will Anderson - Shaq Thompson - Jeremy Chinn - Brian Burns. Rotate to a 35 with Luvu coming in at LB for Xavier Woods. This will be fun to see and give the Panthers the best chance at winning under Reich while they pick up extra picks to stock up on receiving talent at TE, RB, and WR. Breer and Keyshawn are on point. Panthers make the Texans and Colts pay up for Bryce Young and CJ Stroud.

Amazing? How many championships has been part of in his illustrious career? Who has he been replaced by at every stop? The weight on any #1 pick is enormous and crushing. They will need much more around them and be among the best in NFL history than a QB who has never been able to make success happen. There is a reason top 5 QBs continually struggle and fail at a predictable rate and in a predictable fashion.