Icege

Finally got to finish listening to Mina and Dan talk about the resurgence of the importance of the run in today's game. A lot of what they discussed lines up with what the Panthers seem to be attempting to build under Canales + Evero. Teams are running the football more than they have in nearly a decade. The best offenses in the league last year (BAL, BUF, DET, GB) were also the top rushing teams. The old assumption that you could pass your way to being a top-5 offense without a consistent ground game isn't holding up anymore. Offenses are getting under center more and leaning into physicality and time of possession. That shift is happening in direct response to defenses going lighter in personnel to stop spread and RPO-heavy attacks. 12 personnel usage is at its highest since 2007. If you have TEs who can block and catch, defenses can't easily match personnel. Baltimore's Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely were used as examples, and the Bengals (who have mostly used 11 personnel with Burrow at the helm) are also leaning into the model with the as pass catching TE (Gesicki) and a blocking TE (Sample). Condensed formations (tight splits, bunch alignments, etc) are now used more than ever. These sets create traffic, allow WRs to block more effectively, and force DBs to tackle. The goal isn't spacing; it's leverage, angles, and chaos. Defenses are trying to respond with more blitzes from the secondary and by rotating coverages post-snap. The big nickel is ever increasing in their importance on the field. Linemen and linebackers are trading in size and strength for speed and athleticism. This makes them more susceptible to the run. They're also taking greater risks on earlier downs. Fourth-down aggressiveness hit 20% league-wide last year, the highest on record. It's more than just going for it though, it's a shift in offensive philosophy. Teams now call second and third down differently when they know they'll use all four downs. That makes checkdowns, 3yd gains, etc meaningful building blocks instead of perceived failures. Hearing all of that and looking at the Panthers, it's difficult to not do a double take. The Panthers have an RB room built for the grind. Chuba is the workhorse, Dowdle is a more than capable back-up that can also start, and Etienne provides further depth. If JB's year off puts him in place to come back and contribute to the roster after Dowdle's deal expires, look out! The emphasis on time of possession and intelligent decision making fits Bryce's playstyle as well as the returning OL. With defenses getting lighter, having a mauling offensive line is going to make life even easier for the RBs which in turn will make the QBs job simpler. On the defensive side of things, the team got bigger in the trenches and brought in one of the best tackling run-stopping DBs in the league in Tre'von Moehrig. That's a wise investment when looking at the division and realizing that they're going to have to defend against Alvin Kamara, Bucky Irvin, Bijan Robinson, and Tyler Allegeier twice a year. Regarding 12 personnel, Tremble is more of a blocker but is a capable pass catcher. Sanders is more of a pass catcher but might be more effective in the run game with his improved physique. Mitchell Evans is another TE that can both block and catch. While they might not have an elite guy in the room yet, having versatile tight ends has been the shift vs. just having an elite pass-catching TE. The team didn't run as much 12 sets as the rest of the league, but when considering the injuries that took place it (and that TE2 was a rookie) it makes sense. It'll be interesting to see if they lean more into 12 this season. Condensed formations focus on creating match ups on the perimeter rather than working the space inside created via spread offenses. This plays into Bryce's game as well as the receiving corps that the team is working with. TMac and XL provide shot plays on the perimeter which, if successful, will lead to more space inside for Bryce to work with. While he's shown that he's willing to go over the middle despite his size, there is also the reality of congestion over the middle being more difficult for him to deal with unless he buys time with his legs to let things clear up. With Evero's love of the safety position and the addition of Moehrig, expect him to rotate down as the big nickel and occasional three safety looks. Evero wants DBs that can tackle and sent Jaycee on some well-timed corner blitzes last season. With the DL being retooled, he might be able to leverage Wallace/Jewell to provide pressure from the LB position as well by blitzing them on early downs. I don't think I will ever recover from Jimmy Clausen's checkdowns, but it's good to hear that those are no longer the drive killers that they used to be. Taking the checkdown on 2nd & 7 to get to 3rd & 5 to get to 4th & 2 is becoming increasingly viable (though not exactly dependable).

Seeing as how big brother Bryce hater immediately slid in to wax poetic about "waiting and seeing" (after spending the entire offseason doing the opposite), I've got a feeling we’ll be hearing the same old gospel soon: Tampa is the clear division favorite Bryce has size limitations And of course: "They gave up too much for him, so he must throw for 300+ every game or it wasn’t worth it" I've developed a bit more of an exotic palate than some, though--so while some might fear the taste of crow, I've grown rather fond of it over the years. Hopefully I'll be having a nibble after listening, but I've got a feeling they'll have more salt in their diet than I will crow...

Considering how you and a few others were saying that the team needs to move on from Bryce in 2025, that he isn't good throwing deep, and has no chance of being a quality NFL QB... I'd say inevitably incorrect.

Funny how some of the loudest voices now "cautioning optimism" were the same ones spending all last offseason trying to smother any hope or support...

The offseason is when we're allowed to hope and dream! Though I can understand fans lacking in emotional resiliency wanting to be hesitant to hope instead of mope.

Finally getting a chance today to sit down and watch this and per the usual... That Franchise Guy continues to be one of the few content creators out there that isn't Panthers-centric but is still clearly pays attention to the team. About to wrap up the coaching & scheme section, and I appreciate how he points out that Evero was legitimately having to trot out practice squad guys as starters. I knew it had been tough on the defense last season after Derrick Brown and Shaq Thompson went down, but man... it took seeing the total snap percentages at the end of the season to realize just what the team was working with... 2024 DL: A'Shawn Robinson, Shy Tuttle, LaBryan Ray, Charles Harris, DeShawn Williams, Nick Thurman vs. 2025 DL: Derrick Brown, Bobby Brown III, Tershawn Wharton, A'Shawn Robinson, Cam Jackson, LaBryan Ray/Jaden Crumedy/Shy Tuttle (pick one)

While it's fair to question how impactful a player's relationship with a coach is (especially if someone has questions regarding said coach), it's important to also evaluate the difference between the players here. Jordan Fuller was pick #199 in the 6th round while Justin Simmons was #98 in the 3rd round. Jordan Fuller might have gotten a Super Bowl ring while he was with the Rams, but he got it while on the IR. Justin Simmons, on the other hand, is a x2 Pro-Bowler (2020, 2023), x4 second-team All-Pro (2019, 2021 - 2023), and was the NFL co-leader in INTs (2022). Simmons has also fallen off in the last couple of seasons though, grade-wise. He very well might not be that same player, which could be why the Falcons have elected to replace him with Fuller. As far as getting the best out of what he has, asking him to produce with a starting DL of A'Shawn Robinson (63.56% of the defense's snaps), LaBryan Ray (51.48%), and Shy Tuttle (50.08%) isn't reasonable. Wonnum only played in 8 games, but had the second most % of snaps (37.27%) at EDGE behind Clowney (53.53%). The second-string DL based on snap % was... and don't read this if you just ate... Charles Harris (34.48%), DeShawn Williams (27.67%), and Nick Thurman (19.7%). The second-string EDGEs based on snap count would be DJ Johnson (32.27%) and Cam Gill (18.14%). With the investments made in the run defense this season though, especially on the defensive line, it's more than fair to demand a complete turn around from last season.

Couldn't be happier for Shaq. Gets to go to a familiar system with familiar faces in McDermott + Rasul Douglas after a tough injury late in his career. Wish that the team could've brought him back for one more season, but Wallace's emergence made that a lot harder.

Curious to see how Evero adjusts his scheme given the shallow CB room. Does he stick with rotating from two-high to single-high looks more than any DC in the league again, leaning heavily on Cover-3? Or does he shift back toward more Cover-4 with the occasional LB blitz mixed in? Only three months until we find out…

Highlights start @ 0:43 Fun seeing TMac and XL joking around. Excited to see how the young WR room (and AT) develop this upcoming season.

Oh, ok. Carry on.

Woo boy... Them hit dogs started a-HOLLERIN'

Ppl that were butthurt over a week of Netflix are going through it this week. Bryce in GQ and XL in a music video? Ooh wee mayne.

Was really interesting hearing him talk about how the Chiefs spent 3yrs building around Pat as if he were the guy. That was something we really saw the team lean into last offseason as well as this one.

Looking back on the 2023 QB class and the Panthers absolutely made the right choice jumping up to #1. Only Bryce and CJ have showed any promise. Whether or not they chose the right one of the two, we'll have to "wait and see."

It's beautiful. Hoping that whoever the team ends up starting at RT + C in the 2026 season are monsters on rookie deals.

I cannot wait to use this as a react for the next 6 months

This is incredibly dishonest, and you know it. We didn't cherry-pick a "small amount of deep throws late in the year." We reviewed every one of Bryce's deep throws using the NFL's own film and data via NFL Pro. The analysis was thorough, transparent, and contextualized with game film. Dismissing that as cherry-picking is not only incredibly disingenuous, it is textbook gaslighting as well. Let's walk through the actual data: Top-10 in deep ball accuracy Top-5 in short-range accuracy Bottom-10 in intermediate accuracy (not ideal, but not "league worst" either) If you're going to lean on the "no pressure" qualifier again, his deep passing under pressure was covered. So no... it wasn't cherry-picked. Look, you don't have to believe in Bryce. That's your right... but misrepresenting clear, consistent evidence crosses the line from skepticism into willful intellectual dishonesty.

Oh damn, my bad. Could've sworn it was a 3yr deal last offseason. Looking at the details now and it might effectively be just 1yr looking at the numbers for 2026. Team saves $6M and just accrues a little over $2M dead cap. Costs less than $4M going into this season. Got a feeling that we are gonna see a lot of Sanders/Evans when they put 2 TEs out there to see if they can move on from Tremble.

Glad to see them playing it cautious. I wonder if this was due to the hit he took against the Bears that knocked him out. He was out for two games in the concussion protocol, came back for the Broncos but was listed questionable due to back, then missed two more games before returning to finish the season. He was also extended before last season started, so well before the injury ever occurred let alone when surgery needed to be discussed.

DM sent

I think, like with BTT%, you might be interpreting this a bit narrowly. Bryce is in Tier 4: Young players with a wide range of potential outcomes, and within that group the only QB "above" him is Bo Nix. That tier explicitly frames Bryce as a developing player still on a trajectory... not someone who's reached a plateau. It aligns with how many Panthers fans framed the season leading into 2024: that it would be a redo of Bryce's rookie season after the 2023 dysfunction. By contrast, Tier 3b, where guys like CJ and Baker are slotted, is labeled Solid starters, but they need more help and spans rankings #12 - #18. For context, Tier 3a includes Goff, Geno, and Purdy. Personally, I'm not sure I'd take those three over CJ... would you? Which brings me back around to this recurring conversation around the expectation that Bryce must be a top-10 QB to justify his draft status. I'm not pushing back on that idea at all. Year 3 is a big year... we can all agree on that. What I'm asking is: how are we defining top-10? Are we talking PFF grades? EPA/play? BTT%? 3rd down conversion rate? Redzone efficiency? You've mentioned total passing yards and win-loss record a few times... Are those your primary criteria? I'm genuinely asking, because it's tough to have a grounded conversation when advanced metrics are dismissed as irrelevant while volume stats (which are often more dependent on supporting cast and play calling) are treated as as definitive. If the bar is top-10 QB, then let's define that in consistent, measurable terms... preferably something a little more substantial than just height and weight.

Couple of things to consider with the recent love from PFF: Eric Eager, the current Panthers' VP of Football Analytics, is a former writer and data scientist for PFF. The team has had seven consecutive losing seasons, so the fanbase is eager for any uplifting news. It's the offseason, so football writers are going to be diving into the numbers from last season to create speculative pieces to drive engagement during the offseason. Being hesitant to trust stats like BTT% but not TWP% might be less an issue with PFF and more of an issue with something else.

I can't get behind a purely subjective re-draft as a method of defining "top-10 QB" status. That invites bias based on vibes/hypotheticals and can ignore actual on-field performance. You and others have said that Bryce has to be a top-10 QB to justify the pick. That's a high bar, which I'm not against, but we need a clear, consistent way to measure it. When I bring up metrics that Bryce has registered in the top-10 in like BTT%, P2S ratio, catchable deep ball rate, etc... they're waved off as either irrelevant or the expected baseline performance. Meanwhile, volume stats like passing yards or win-loss records, both of which depend heavily on roster talent, health, and coaching, are treated as definitive. That's where the inconsistency kicks in. If no performance metric ever counts in his favor and the answer is always going to be "he should be doing that," then we're not evaluating him... we're just holding him to a curve he can't win against. If this is really about performance standards, then let's define them. But if it's just about confirming prior takes based on height and weight, then let's call it what is it and stop pretending that this is a football analysis discussion.

Just to be clear: I'm not "downplaying" the talent around Bryce... I'm qualifying it. There's a big difference between saying, "we finally have building blocks that we're actually developing" and "we've done enough to say this is a finished product, NO EXCUSES!" It's possible to believe that the 2023 situation was bad and to believe that the current state, while improved, is still incomplete. That's not inconsistency; that's nuance. As for the footwork stuff, again, I've seen the same clips as others. The claim that Bryce is hopping to see over the line just isn't one I've seen corroborated by analysts or tape breakdown. "Both feet off of the ground to throw" happens a ton for QBs (ex: Mahomes, Rodgers, Purdy, etc.), especially when improvising. You're right that there were some encouraging flashes from Bryce last season, and it's nice to finally hear that after so much time was spent pretending otherwise. I'm not arguing that Bryce is elite, I'm just asking that we evaluate him using consistent, measurable criteria to determine his status as a top-10 QB... whether it's via 3rd down %, red zone efficiency, turnover-worthy plays, or yes, big-time throws (which, by the way, has been a valid part of QB evaluation across the league for years even if it wasn't used here during Kyle Allen or Teddy Bridgewater's years. For reference: Allen had 20 BTT at a 3.9% rate. Teddy had 17 BTT at 3.3%). Like you, I'm hoping to see a competent, entertaining offense this season. That's a baseline we can all root for, even if we don't have the same baseline for what makes a QB top-10 (which, to be fair, is what this conversation has been about... though I respect the attempt to reframe it).