MHS831

The 2021 2022 Hindsight Draft I went with Fields Gardner because I like Fields better than Willis--only reason

I think it is a lot easier to guess where a QB will be drafted than it is to predict which will be successful by year 3 or not. I think the Joe Montanas, Russell Wilsons, Tom Bradys, etc. (not drafted until round 3 or later) are out there, and I think this draft will produce some good QB talent. I literally see the top 5 as being about equal in terms of their likelihood to be a successful pro---I am not a good evaluator of QB talent, so maybe its me. But I read somewhere that the #1 overall QB picked has something like a 60% chance of success but a QB picked 2-5 of round 1 has a 25% chance of success----later round 1? 25% chance of success. (sorry, I would provide the link if I could remember where I saw it---I read it about 3 times to make sure I interpreted it correctly). So why reach? To me, the question is not, Pickett > Howell? It is Pickett> Howell + an olineman.?

We all want to overpay for a player after his best--as if a great year is an indication of the future. Howell had a great year in 2020 and he suffered in 2021. His stock is DOWN, but what is the difference between Howell and Pickett? In 2020, nobody knew who Pickett was--Howell was the lock first round draft pick. If Howell had a bad year because he was asked to do so much more (running, playing from behind, etc) how would he do with a great OL and Moore and Anderson and CMC and Marshall (who will be good in 2022)? If you asked me if I would rather have Mac Jones over Howell, I would disagree. Would I rather have Willis? Long term--probably, but Howell has 2 things that I really love that stand out--he is smart and he is cool under pressure. He does not get rattled. The NFL has more close games than college, and a leader who is cool in the huddle is a very calming reassuring presence. If I can trade back, get a solid G or T and get Howell, I think I would. And if Howell busts, you still have the G/T. Howell will be a great backup, at worst.

True or false: Howell will be drafted before Ridder. Howell will be drafted by the Lions at 32.

Icky is, in my opinion, the person we should target. Maybe if he is gone, they will go QB, but there is not a lot of interest in other LT candidates? Penning, Cross, Neal? So are they really using 2 of the 30 visits on CBs?

According to the Listed Players on WalterFootball, the Panthers have scheduled 7 of 30 possible private workouts. The list is a bit QB heavy, with 6 QBs being mentioned (no Strong, curiously) and only 1 other player—a Tackle. Since the Tackle is likely a 4th rounder or later, this is an early indicator that the Panthers are going QB and do not seem extremely interested in hiding that fact. They are working out all 5 top QB options and then Zappe, while the OT they seem to be kicking the tires on has been slipping down most mock draft boards into the fourth round in many cases (Penn State). Now, there are 23 more visits that can follow, and it could be that they will have the QB talent evaluators in first and then the OL coaches and scouts later---but it sure seems like QB is the lean. Potentially noteworthy: Willis is showing multiple Panther contacts and had a large list of visits with other teams—more than the others. However, Walter is but a bulletin board to collect hearsay and news tidbits-not an exhaustive process by any means. This may be nothing, but news is slow right now-so thank me for sharing this…You are welcome, Huddle. QB Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati Malik Willis, QB, Liberty Bailey Zappe Western Kentucky OL Rasheed Walker, OT, Penn State https://walterfootball.com/prospectMeetings/byprospect

Yeah, but last year, the Panthers had visions of Darnold reforming and becoming good in a new environment. This year, lets hope they are not developing visions of Darnold reforming and becoming good behind 2 new OL.

The Saints are foolish to give up 2 firsts for a QB that will not beat out Dalton and Crablegs--a #3. However, the Saints aggression could mean that the Panthers get offers-even if (for example) Willis goes at #5. If they do not want Pickett, they could gamble and trade with a team like the Seahawks and move back, still possibly landing Pickett and undoubtedly landing Corral if they like him instead. So it depends on who they like and how many they like.

The problem I have with that--if you suck this year and the QB does not work out, you have no first rounder in a good QB draft.

I had the same thought--I see Pickett as a Saint more than I can see Willis as one--

If it was certain that we could get a better QB next year, or that this year's QBs will suck, and if it were certain that the Bozemans and Burns and other potential free agents would re-sign here after a tank year, then do it.

If the Giants don't deal or the Panthers offer a better deal, they could to leapfrog not only Carolina, but Atlanta and Seattle as well.

And if you do the math--what it cost to get the additional first rounder--then what it will cost to move up---that is a hefty price for Willis or Pickett.

PantherOnTheProwl1523 is your mom?

I am not reading this entire thread but I felt that my voice needs to be heard--even if it is repetitive. Here is what we know: The Giants have announced they want to trade #5. The Saints went after Watson and still want a QB, even though they added Dalton to play behind Crablegs. The Saints and Giants have probably worked out a deal to trade on draft day if a certain player is available. The Saints know that the Panthers (6), Falcons (8), and Seahawks (9) are in the market.

Of course. I was being sarcastic. Is he not the person who coined the iconic phrase, "Who dat bear?"

That pun was not lost on me. Bravo.

This is like translating the Dead Sea Scrolls.

Who knows. But one must admire the sentence structure during what appears to be a trying time for him.

IF they go with Cross or any non QB, then the Panthers will probably make a play for Jimmy G, Baker M, or Gardner M. I doubt they do this. Their positioning before the draft screams QB, but who knows?

Panthers

Seriously--at this time, I do not see this QB class as weak. So, I will put myself in the center of another expert analysis--something I like to call: Anal-MHS-ysis. The top 5 QBs in 2020 (a great class) vs. the top 5 QBs in the 2021 class) 2020 Lawrence: Had a great supporting cast in Clemson and was very good. Had a weak supporting cast in Jax and was not very good. Wilson: The teams he played against in college were not very good, but his team was pretty good. The team he played on in NY was not very good. He was not very good. Lance: His college team was good vs. lesser competition and he was very good. His pro team was very good. Lance played and was not very good, but good enough to win the job. Fields: His college team was very good and he was very good. All QBs that come from very good Ohio State are not very good in the pros. In Chicago, Fields was not very good. Jones: His college team was very good and his OL was very good. In New England, his coach was very good and protected him. He was pretty good. So it seems to me that the college team has everything to do with our estimation of the QBs---all five of the 2020 QBs played on very good teams that dominated the competition most all of the time. However, when these QBs went to bad NFL teams, they were not very good as rookies. Lance and Jones went to the best situations and they are poised to be the best QBs entering 2021 because they will be in the best situations. The Jags, the Jets, and the Bears have work to do before their QBs are feared. Willis: This year, the seemingly top-rated QB played at Liberty. I compare him to Lance because they both played at FCS Div I AA schools and were very good on very good, lower level teams. Lance had to sit a year in SF, and Willis is likely to sit a year wherever he goes. Both offer nice upside. Corral: Wilson was good at BYU, but sucked in NY. I see Corral being his equal, maybe to a lesser degree, but Corral is likely to end up on a better NFL team. Miss was good with Corral, and he was the reason for it. I think Corral has a chance to be better as a pro than the #2 overall pick in the 2021 draft. Pickett: I think the closest comparison to Pickett is Jones, in terms of passing only. Jones can't run, Pickett can, but the hand size (fumbling) could be the equalizer. Both make good decisions with the football, and both have limited upsides. On the right team, Pickett can be better than Jones in my opinion because he is a better athlete. Howell is probably best compared with Fields. Fields is the better athlete, but Howell rushed for 1000 yards as a rookie. Fields went to Ohio State, where the system often produces NFL draft busts at a stunning rate, where UNC's much smaller sample size of NFL QBs is not any better. The reason I put Howell and Fields on the same page? They can both scamper, throw a clean ball, and they both have cool temperaments. Grace under pressure is an underappreciated characteristic. I give Fields the advantage here, but he did not exactly instill confidence in Chicago that they have found their QB--and considering that Ohio State let burrow slip away for lesser pro QBs tells me that the NFL skill set might not be a good fit in Columbus. Howell is smart, has shown he can adjust his game as needed (running). He simply needs an OL and receivers. So these 2 are closer to even than one might think. Ridder's size and leadership skills are similar to Trevor's, but this is where the two groups differ. Ridder has upside, but it is not fair comparing him to the #1 overall pick in 2021. So the difference between the two classes: Willis = Lance Corral > Wilson Howell < Fields Pickett > Jones Ridder < Lawrence So these groups of QBs are not as different as we think. The 2020 QBs played on awesome teams with awesome supporting casts, but Howell, Pickett, Willis, Ridder, and Corral were on teams a notch below 2020s Clemson, Alabama, ND State, and Ohio State. They were more akin to BYU. Put Lawrence on the Bearcats in 2021, do they do better? Put Howell under center at Ohio State in 2021. Does he struggle like he did at UNC? Put Pickett in as Alabama's signal caller--they still win the National Championship. Could Willis have led Lance's ND State team? I think so. Could Corral have beaten Coastal Carolina as the BYU QB? Probably. Thanks for reading

Read some tea leaves people. We have signed 2 starting offensive lineman and we have a sophomore (BC) waiting to start. We re-signed Moton last year. They seem to like Elf at C. In other words, we upgraded (in our minds) 60% of the offensive line. OT is a luxury at this point (based on Brady's play there last year), not a necessity. We have 2 QBs on the roster, and one is a bust and the other is a USXFLArenaWorldLeague MVP. He (Our backup QB) has a 54.5% completion rating with 1 TD and 3 Ints. Darnold is in the last year of his contract and is set to earn about a half million per interception in 2022. We went in hard after a sure fire franchise qb and came away in fourth place, but have done nothing else at QB. We sent everyone we had to the top QB pro days. We have the sixth overall pick. Do you REALLY think we are taking a Tackle? Really? The Saints know this--and they (in my opinion) want Willis or Pickett. I have been thinking the #5 pick is going to be traded for a QB (Possibly Seattle, Atlanta, Pittsburgh,and now New Orleans), so I sorta expected this. Seattle, however, could decide to trade with the Jets, or the Lions could take Willis at #2---if so, that would suck if we want Pickett. I say sit tight and trade back. Grab a developmental QB--Ridder, Howell, or even Corral--later in the round and draft a player on day 2.

I think they are looking 2 years ahead and they like the talent vs. their contract situations then. They may want a QB next year if Hurt does not play well, for example, and this gives them the capital to move up--my guess.

I keep coming back to this pick...I even think they take him if all QBs are on the board.