MHS831

Today's headlines have caused me to rethink things, and that is difficult when I rarely think things. Apparently Dan Orlovsky and others feel that Jaxon Dart is one of the best QBs in this draft. He knows QBs pretty well, so I am not going to pretend to know more--I really have no clue about evaluating QB talent in college in relation to the NFL. "(Career) Dart passed for 10,617 yards and 72 touchdowns over his three seasons with the Rebels. He also rushed for 1,498 yards and 12 touchdowns with Ole Miss." Had a good week at SR Bowl. Some talent evaluators in attendance were so impressed, they rate him QB 2. So this is where it gets interesting. (I get Matt Corral vibes about Kiffin QBs, but this aint coming from me) Based on pieces of conjecture and rumor I have heard recently, here is my take on the top 10 which would lay the tracks for 4 QBs going in round 1: Tennessee will not take a QB first overall, according the Mina Kimes. They could entertain trade offers because their needs are QB (but not at #1), OL, WR, and defensive front 7. I predict a trade with the Jets. I would say Giants, but I GM Schoen is on the hotseat--a trade up with a bad pick could get you Fitterered. Trade: Jets take Cam Ward. Cleveland also needs a QB since Watson can't get his Achilles massaged regularly. I think they might take Ward if he is there, but many are projecting Sanders to the Browns, probably because they think Ward is going #1. (talk on the street). Sanders fits Kevin Stepanski's system, however, so does Will Howard. Drafting the best player in the draft vs. a QB with a few ??? behind his name at #2? However, rumors from my brother-in-law who is a chiropractor in Columbus, they could wait and take Ohio State QB Will Howard at 33 if they feel they could get Hunter at pick 2 and Howard at pick 33--both probable. I am not certain that Sanders will be the better pro than Howard, but I am certain that anyone drafted at 33 will not be better than Hunter. WR/CB Travis Hunter will be the pick. (note: Cleveland needs a RB too--I could see them taking Sanders and moving back up into round 1 from 33 to draft Ashton Jeanty, RB, as well. I can see Johnson approving of this to support a young QB behind a solid OL--but I am still going with Hunter/Howard.) The Giants will take a QB if one is there at #3, and I do not think Joe Schoen has the balls to take Dart. Although I am having trouble picturing this, I think Sanders will be a Giant. New England: Most of the Patriot beat writers are suggesting that the Patriots MAYE take Will Campbell, OT LSU. This is a bit surprising to me, but those who cover the Pats hear stuff. Out of 8 experts, half selected Campbell. Jacksonville could go many ways. However, secondary is a HUGE need behind OL, and there are no elite OL at #5. Will Johnson, CB, Michigan would be worth the #5 overall selection and fill that need. Vegas Raiders is a good fit for Darnold because the OL is in place. He could use a WR and they could use an edge on the other side of Mad Maxx Crosby. I think that is what they do, knowing they can add WRs later. Pick: Abdul Carter, Edge. Tennessee (from Jets): If I am the GM, I know the Titans need a WR and OL help in addition to QB. I also have the capital (from the Jets trade) to move back up into round 1. Unless addressed in free agency, grabbing the best WR here is the way to go. Titans take T. McMillan, WR, Arizona. Carolina: Gotta be Mason Graham, DL, Michigan. (Other options: Mykel Williams, edge--lotta people salivating over him; Jalon Walker LB; James Pearce, edge (local boys) So what about Dart? If enthusiasm for Dart continues, I could see him going to the Colts at 14. If Tennessee wants him, I could see them trading up with Miami to get him at 13. I know this sounds crazy, but if high-level officials are saying he is QB 2. How in the world is Will Howard a first rounder? That is crazy talk!!! Is it Possible, assuming the draft goes down as described here, that the Browns want the fifth-year option on their future QB, so they do like the Panthers did with XL--they trade up 1 spot with KC or Philly? It may cost them a future third rounder, but the payoff in terms of cap savings could be huge. So the Browns draft the best player in the draft, Travis Hunter, and they get their future QB (hopefully) at 32, securing inexpensive qb play for 5 years. Do not underestimate Howard's play in the Playoffs. He was awesome and demonstrated mobility. There are QB-needy teams paying attention. Enough knowledge from me. Good News for Panther Fans: If you break down needs as you go through the draft, it is possible Carter falls to us--it is also as unlikely. The key seems to be the New England pick. If Hunter is gone, they MUST have an OT for Maye. Watch them in free agency. If they draft OT at #4, it opens things up for us. If (by April) Jaxon Dart seeps into the top 10, great. I can't believe I am saying that--Dart? Yeah, from what I am reading today, Dart.

Not sure where he will end up, but I see him going as high as third round.

It would be great to add Bech or Restrepo in the draft to work in a rotation with AT and pick his brain for a year.

I agree with this--a WR in the slot who can get you 800-1000 yards is worth 6. I would like to see us add a slot to rotate with him, and I would like to see XL, Coker, and a draft pick or free agent play outside. Thank God AT is coming back and Coker is stepping up. Imagine if AT retired and Coker never happened?

GOOD post. I see your position, and I worry about your points about XL--he is dim--but I watched him in the offense, run routes, go in motion, etc. and he seems like he gets it--but getting position and bringing the ball in--feet in bounds--he seems very raw.

As for drafting project players or players who are injured, it is all about risk/reward. The Eagles drafted project players because they got good value and they developed them--three years of this has put them in the Super Bowl (Dan Orlovsky). If you want established, healthy players, you are paying retail. The Panthers have shown signs they are developing players, perhaps for the first time in years. Examples: Bryce, and hats off to the OL coaches--Mays, Ekwonu, and Zavala; Then I look at Coker, Smith-Wade, Wallace, M. Jackson, etc. I think we have the staff to develop players. I would evaluate them by their film, workout, interview (to determine coachability and motivation to improve). Players with athletic ability that we drafted to develop and did not (before Canales): DJ Johnson, Barno, Chinn, Mingo and TMJ, etc. This is why I expect XL to be better in 2025. However, if your mindset is: "Draft only good players, not projects." then you need to know that ALL players are projects. Cam was a project. Steve Smith was a project.

Just a hunch/guess, but I liked what I saw from Bartholomew and Evans (CBs from the PS) at the end of the season...limited action, but they held their own. Probably nothing, but I wonder.

I see both sides. It is a bit self-centered, but athletes are self-centered by nature. You have to be. When you are in high school, you are promoting yourself to get a scholarship, not the team. When you are in the gym, you are making yourself better, even though you know there are teammates not working a hard as you. In college--the competition on the team is intense; I was seventh on the TE depth chart in college as an incoming freshman; my thoughts were: "I have six guys I have to beat." They were not my friends; it was easier that way. Remmers and the refs (people wondered if Peyton Manning's swan song was rigged) kept Cam from winning both. Funny, but most people don't think about the athlete's rise to prominence--all the people he had to beat, all the humiliation he caused others to get where he is. Then they don't think about the end of an athlete's career. All athletes come from different places and have different stories. You enter the arena alone and you leave it alone. Very few go out on good terms. All athletes die young.

It sure seems that way at this moment, but I think XL will improve--mentally, I am not sure he grasped the situation last year. Let's hope a few months off will allow for him to reflect aboard Dollar Bill...Drafting a RB on day 2 is stupid when you are investing in the OL. Drafting a RB recovering from a severe knee injury is stupid with bonus stupid. I look at the first year of my career and cringe. I would do nearly everything differently. Maybe Morgan will reflect like XL. As for the rest of the draft, Wallace, Smith-Wade, Sanders--you can't overlook the success he had rounds 3-7. To me, that is a good sign. It means the scouts were out. With Hurney, I felt they researched the first round, drafted the safest player, and then considered the rest a crap shoot. I mean, the only draft he had without coach input? Jimmy Clausen, Brandon Lafell, Armanti Edwards, Eric Norwood. Not stellar.

I realize that it has been about 2 weeks since the last post; these things evolve. I n April we will laugh at our January comments. OK, I obtained some intelligence watching ESPN, I think. Mina said (and I was not paying attention to the reasons they were talking about this because a squirrel ran by the window) that she does not think Tennessee is interested in taking a QB at #1. To me, that means it will be Hunter. Then Dan (i think) chimed in that the Browns may not take a QB at #2. Oh my!! I would guess they would trade back, but with Watson being out in 2025, what are they going to do? I understand that they might move back, pick up an OT, and then pick someone like local hero Will Howard in the early second round. Lotta tea leaf reading there, but the point is, the teams at the top may not be in love with Ward and Sanders....

do these inquiries into CBs (I like both, by the way) suggest that we are not expected to re-sign Mike Jackson?

He could help us.

I have heard of Player/coaches before. Player/GM? I think this is a need area, but with the DL play last season, it is hard to gauge. Wallace is decent to good, Jewell is old and was never elite. I like Stutsman (??) from Oklahoma. He is third round on the sites I reference. I met Shaq when he was a rookie and he was small--not thick. I think his body has to be telling him it is time to leave. He won't be worth the money he will want to return, I assume.

Morgan is going to trade, if last year is any indication, and if you listen to his comments. I will be watching the draft with my Tylenol in hand and my Depends secured properly.

Personally, I think this is a weird draft. I think the top is overrated and there are some gems that are not highly rated right now. Finding them is the challenge, and if you trade back, you better know where they are. But, yeah, we have no definitive idea until they lace them up. Who would you select if Carter, Hunter, Graham, T-Mac, and Johnson were gone?

The TE from Miami was turning heads as well. And there is the Hback type TE from Ga Tech (Jackson Hawes) who is a "dawg" and will be a stud in the NFL.

I used that example because it describes a pretty even trade--using the Johnson Trade Chart--just for hypothetical discussion. I probably, however, would not do it--if they need a T that bad, they can bid high.

I like to look at the draft in plateaus. Where does the talent level in your areas of need drop? Aside from QBs who are not really top 10 talents if you take the position and need away, I think Hunter, Graham, Carter, Jeanty and Johnson are on that top level. Then there is a drop that goes through 20 or so. 29, in my mind, would be on the third level. Gettlemen said, "2 dimes is worth less than a quarter." So that is how I look at it--but if you have needs for 3 players.... Taking Graham with the first pick is probably the most sensible pick. However, if he is not there, and you have Jeanty, Johnson, and TMac--do you take Johnson? I think I would-but if you trade back and get a player like Kenneth Grant, Mike Green, or Shemar Stewart, is the difference between one of these players and Graham, for example, worth more than a second rounder this season and next season?

I have not researched them because I have focused on Defense and WR, but what I have seen when I peeked (I would like a swing T) is not overwhelming.

I do not think I said there would be 8 OTs taken--but there will be 11 teams picking in the first round that have OT as a prioritized need. I think there are 3 OTs with solid first round grades and maybe 4 are taken. My point was supply and demand, in relation to your point that you need a reason to move up in the draft. There will not be many if any starting-caliber OTs in free agency, and if there is one, he will be $25m or more. Some of these teams that need an OT have no cap room; they HAVE to find an OT to protect their QB and maximize his efficiency. Daniels, Mahommes, Jackson all need OTs. My point was--if they want a T, and free agency is not an option due to cap restrictions, they HAVE to find a starting T in the draft. If the Jets take one at #7, the have to know teams will start calling. The Bears, for example, at #10 need an OT badly for their QB. But if I implied that 8 OTs would be taken, it is not what I meant. 8 teams will be pushing to move up, however.

My bad. I have been using NFL Draft Buzz to mock and they do not show us with a second rounder.

I bet he goes to Dallas.

I think, at 8, there will be a player someone covets. These top teams have few needs, so they might package a first and second and maybe a future pick to move up to take a player they covet. Gonna think out loud here for a second-- Offensive tackle--I went to a site (randomly) that lists team needs in prioritized order. ELEVEN teams list OT as a priority. (Ravens, Browns, Bears, Jets, Niners, Seahawks, Bucs, Chiefs, Packers, Commanders, Patriots, Rams). IMO there are 2 elite OT prospects and probably 4 to 5 with first round grades. I see Sanders and Ward (QB), Hunter (CB), Carter (Edge) and Johnson (CB) going in the top 7--Graham or TMac are probably likely to go next. The Jets pick 7 and will not be picking a QB. They will probably take OT Will Campbell. At that time, there is one elite OT left and ELEVEN teams that need an OT. Granted, some will address this need in free agency, but how many starting OTs are available? Now, consider you are the Chiefs, Seahawks, Packers, Bucs, or Ravens. They have little to no cap space, so grabbing a stud OT in free agency is unlikely and there are not any. You also realize that 10 or so picking before you need an OT. Once the Jets take an OT---the Panther phones will be ringing--teams will target Kelvin Banks, OT Texas. If they wait, they could hope that Josh Simmons (Ohio State) falls to them, but they are unlikely to wait for the unlikely. So the Panthers will have to ask themselves, "Would I take the Commanders' first and second and the 2026 second rounder for our first rounder?" We do not have a second rounder in 2026. We'd pick 29th and 61st in 2025. That would give the Panthers 3 picks in the first 61 picks. So who might be there? Let's say that Graham (DE Michigan) is available at #8. Most say "No brainer." But the Phone rings offering you two second rounders to move back 21 spots in round 1. You have a lot of needs. What could you get? Estimates, based on Player Rankings: 27. Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon 57. (from Rams--not part of trade) Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Boston College 61. Maxwell Hairston, CB Kentucky (assuming Mike Jackson leaves--Hairston has been eye opening at the SR Bowl practices) So basically, to give up on Graham, you get a good CB and a good DT and a future second rounder in a draft in which you had no second round.

Yeah, they seemed to quit up front--going through the motions. I think A. Robinson could have been impacted by poor Tuttle/Ray play as well--they def. need to go. But saving 5.5m and losing a DE with his experience and ability is a bit stupid. We are likely to draft a NT/DT and a DE, so rookies will need help. I also think A Rob will be better with Brown in the rotation.

The more I mock, the more I can confirm your sentiment here. Of course, we have free agency in about 6 weeks, but until we know what we have, drafting TMac early causes us to bypass the talent we need at edge and DL, especially if you are hoping to grab a starter. I think Morgan has a list of about 2-3 players he would take at 8, but if they are not there, he will trade back--he has to fee as if he needs numbers. Again, that could and will change to some degree. Carter Graham (maybe) Johnson CB (maybe) Mykel Williams (long shot maybe)