MHS831

Perhaps the best measure of a coaching staff is their ability to prepare the bottom of the roster to challenge for a role as soon as possible. I really liked the approach on day 3 last year--get the best athletes or the player with the most versatility. Smith, Barno, and Mays were awesome choices.

I get the feeling that Barno and Brandon Smith will benefit from the coaching as much as the new defensive alignment. Good point. I also like McCall, but I would not play him more than 25 snaps or so per game. I have never been a fan of Roy--but I am biased against anyone who is here because Rhule coached him. Do I see Tuttle stepping in as a NT? Not really. Brown would make more sense, especially in goal line situations.

We can talk about physics and science and it makes sense, but what applies to Young applies to all. Most NFL injuries are to joints, and the primary injury to QBs is a shoulder injury. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5825334/ While Bryce Young in a head on collusion with Aaron Donald is likely to lose miserably, the padding and protection is likely to prevent a long-term injury. Worst case scenario? A concussion. Best case? Wind knocked out. Most injuries occur when the player is going through a range of motion, such as a RB cutting back (knee) or a QB getting hit while throwing (shoulder). So in that situation, does the size of the person applying the impact matter? You are all right--Bryce vs. Donald = a Donald victory and possible KO for the QB--maybe a few rib issues. But in the performance of QB duties and the motion it takes to play the position, is he more vulnerable than anyone else?

I think of Bryce this way---remember Luke Kuechly. He was a very good athlete (surprising people at the combine) but others were similar to him. He was 6-3, 235---not huge for a 4-3 MLB by any means. Other great athletes of similar size were drafted in 2012 but he and Bobby Wagner became the best. They were/are both very intelligent players, and MLB is the QB of the defense--that is how important Luke was to us--Bobby was/is to Seattle. My Point? While Bryce Young is very small for an NFL QB, the thing that sets him apart is his ability to process and see the field better than the rest. That makes him more capable of making everyone around him better. Is that worth the risk of taking a 5-10, 200 lb QB? That is the decision that must be made, but I want my leaders--on offense and defense--to be very smart. Nothing against Stroud or Richardson or Levis or Herndon--but the special QBs in NFL history, for the most part, were the smartest players on the field. Manning, Brady, Montana, Mahomes, etc.

Good question OP---I think Burns, Shaq, Brown, Chinn, Barno, Roy/McCall and Luvu. Here is how I see each benefiting: Those of you who think that Luvu is going to play OLB, insert the other ILB of your choice instead of Luvu. ILB--Luvu and Shaq: ILBs have pretty simple reads, allowing them to play faster. "If you have a 3 technique called to your side, you line up in a 30 and have A gap responsibility. If you have a 5 or a 7 technique called to your side, you line up in a 30 and have B gap.That’s it. Pretty simple." ILBs read through the G, basically telling them where the play is going. Base/Zone block Reach block Pull Play side Pull back side Down block Scoop block Veer (type) Block (I am not sure I have seen this in the NFL) The ILBs will win or lose in the film room. Some NFL teams use their Guards as "decoys" at times, especially in the RPO systems. Nonetheless, I see both LBs benefiting from the 3-4 because it requires less range and less thinking--make your read and go. I never liked Shaq as an OLB or ILB in a 4-3--always seemed like a tweener to me. NT--Roy and McCall: In the world of DTs, you are asking a lot from 340 lb former college NTs to play a 3 technique because they often lack the assets needed to succeed there. Instead, the NT is basically a beast who occupies the center and stuffs both A gaps. I am not sure if Roy and McCall can do this on the NFL level, but the likelihood for them to improve in this setting compared to what they were asked to do last year is there. A good NT can draw a double team, something the ILBs will love. OLB--Burns and Barno: I could add Haynes to this list, but I want to focus on the 2 who will benefit the most. Barno had to be celebrating the most, because he was a misfit in the 4-3 alignments. If he can learn to bend like Burns, I could see him as a powerful third (rotational) Edge at some point this year. At times, these players need to run with slots or TEs, so his speed will be much more of an asset. Burns, on the other hand, just got more difficult to block, imo, because the DEs are solid and will require attention (imagine Brown and Burns on the same side). I expect Burns to have a 12-14 sack season if he is not used in coverage a lot. DE--Brown: Brown has the athleticism to dominate as a 3-4 DE because he can beat both a G and an OT with equal levels of success. He will require double teams or RB attention in the passing game, freeing people like Burns to face 1-1 situations. He can rush the passer if and when needed, and he can draw a double team and anchor. At 330 lbs he is huge for a DE, but he carries it well. ???--Chinn: When Shaq renegotiated his contract and remained a Panther, nobody celebrated more than Chinn. I think Evero will be very creative with Chinn, and we will see the most improvement out of him vs 2022 than any other player. I think they will play him at "big nickel" SS, and at either LB spot, depending on situation. He will have autonomy. His intelligence and physical gifts will be maximized, unlike 2022. Chinn will dominate in 2023 but I have no idea where--just don't put him on the DL. I would also like to add this: I have thought YGM was the odd man out, but do not forget, the Panthers can use him to convert to a 4-3, making his fairly valuable in some situations. So maybe he will have a role--just not as a starter.

I think this article (or another article) stated that the number one injury to QBs is shoulder, fwiw.

Supposedly a high character guy--somewhat of a sleeper in a deep edge class--I really like him. Long arms, 4.55 40 time, 6-3, 255--good size.

Hypothetically, you have been sentenced to prison....

I want an edge and a WR---If we get QB, edge and WR---Happy camper.

Here is the pressure chart I referenced:

I can literally say that I think either would be great--and I would understand the decision when made. I think we can win with either qb--and I do not pretend to know enough about both to have my mind made up. If we take Young, you bet your arse I am going to make sure my OL is elite and that he processes more quickly in a spread offense that features getting rid of the ball. I recently posted a stat from his college playing career that said he gets rid of the ball 0.2 seconds faster than the average. The average QB in the NFL gets rid of the ball about 2.5-2.7 seconds. (Ironically, Mahommes, Mayfield, Jones, Allen, and Jackson took the longest time to throw--around 3 seconds). The report basically said that a QB who throws the ball at 2.5 seconds has about a 15% chance of being pressured. If the QB takes 3 seconds, the likelihood for pressure increases to nearly 40%. (in 2019 according to PFF, Newton was holding the ball 2.9 seconds and his average time to throw before pressure was at 2.56 seconds--0.3 tenths less than Josh Allen in Buffalo.) If the QB takes 4 seconds and has not thrown the ball, pressure is likely 55% of the time. On average, the article says that QBs face pressure 35% of the time. So here is the rub. Bryce is better throwing under pressure than Stroud. He is smaller, so there is more incentive to get the ball out more quickly, something he naturally does. Stroud has a quick release and is accurate, so there is no reason to think that his success throwing from a clean pocket is not related to his decision-making. So do you risk injury (as some think) with the smaller qb who is better under pressure, or do you go with the bigger QB who is not as effective under pressure?

Make it happen, Fitterer.

It is closer than before--nice idea, OP. We need one of these each week for the next few weeks. Who the hell voted for Levis? I want a name. We need to expose this person. No reason, just to chat about our differences of opinion.

According to the chart, you are looking at one of the least injured positions in football. Take a smallish QB with a quick processor (to me) is less dangerous than a big QB who processes more slowly and dances around in the pocket trying to extend plays or running out of the pocket. I used to cringe when I saw Cam take his drop, plant his back foot, and then hold the ball. That, and running the ball like Bronco Nagurski ended Cam's career, and he was 6-5, 245. Found a pic of Bronco so people not named Scot will understand the humor.

You mean the NFL executives who have a 56% success rate drafting the first overall pick? I think everyone wants that 6-4 QB who can scan the field, but in relation to injury, they could be basing a decision on a myth. Maybe they have not looked at data? Maybe they simply assumed and based their opinions on a false assumption. There will be people who criticize the data without supportive data for their opinions, basing an opinion on "common sense." Like people who refuse to look at the overwhelming psychological and emotional data on the long term impacts of spanking-dismissing it as nonsense without any evidence that demonstrates it is effective without potential long-term cognitive and behavioral consequences. People are close-minded in general, and that is a form of ignorance. Just an example of human nature.

If nothing else, this article should cause people to second-guess their theories based on Young's size when the variables that matter are related to how he will be used/play. Cam Newton, according to that thinking, should never have been injured and should have had a long career--enter Ron Rivera and Marty Hurney....

Right--but if the size is not as significant at the football intelligence, processing, release time, etc, then why would size be a factor when it can be so easily overcome with other variables? One article claimed that the tissue around the joints for larger athletes is under more stress ans subject to injury as a result. If the NFL rules protecting QBs are upheld and Bryce understands that he must make plays without attempting to extend them, he could be effective as a "point guard" as the team has often said. There could be data supporting the opposite, but until I see it, I will consider this--I was actually shocked when I read these results.

Are smaller players more injury-prone? There are many ideas about what makes a player more injury prone, and many people point to size as a possible culprit. Namely, some people claim that smaller players are more likely to get injured playing football because their bodies are less suited to handle NFL collisions. This is at least a fairly straightforward question to study, as originally done here. However, we should separate this by position group, as we saw in Part 1 of this series that different position groups have different rates of injury, and more mobile positions (RB, WR, DB, LB) tend to have the highest rate of injury, while less mobile positions (OL, QB) tend to have the lowest rate of injury. The overall injury rate by position is summarized in the table below. Remember than an Athlete Exposure (AE) is defined as a game played or a practice session in which a player was listed as a full participant. Injury Rate By Position Position Injury Rate per 1000 AEs (Standard Error) RB 20.7 (0.5) DB 17.4 (0.3) WR 17.1 (0.4) LB 17.1 (0.3) TE 16.9 (0.5) DL 15.1 (0.3) OL 12.8 (0.3) QB 8.6 (0.4) ST 4.4 (0.3) Total 15.1 (0.1) Clearly, if we just looked at injury rate vs weight, it would appear that smaller players are more likely to be injured, but that is only because the most injured position groups happen to have smaller, more mobile players. Having established this baseline, we can then plot the injury rate vs weight for each of these position groups. For the most part, it actually looks like smaller players are less likely to be injured, not more likely. However, each graph has a slightly different pattern that is worth describing. DB is perhaps the easiest plot to interpret, and shows a clear increasing risk of injury based on size. DL shows a similar pattern, but the effect is not as large and it is overall a much flatter plot, indicating size is not strongly correlated to injury for DL. The up-down-up shape of the curve may be due to conflation of DEs and DTs. LB actually shows a slightly decreased risk of injury for larger LBs up until the heaviest weight category, which has significantly increased risk. OL shows a clearly increasing risk of injury based on size, except for the highest weight category, which has greatly decreased risk of injury (this may be the threshold at which OL can simply win with size). QB also shows a clearly increasing injury rate based on size. RB shows an increasing injury rate based on size up to a point, then a decreasing injury rate. This pattern may again be because two slightly different position groups (HBs and FBs) are being lumped in the same category together. TE also shows an increasing injury rate up to a point, then a decrease. It may be due to larger TEs being used primarily as blockers rather than pass catchers. WR shows a strong correlation between increased size and increased rate of injury, although the very smallest weight category of WR also had an increased rate of injury. Overall, these data seem to indicate that smaller players are actually a bit less prone to injury within a given position group, although usage seems to play a much bigger role than size in determining injury rate. My big takeaway from this is not that teams should target smaller or larger players, but rather just that teams should not assume that smaller players are more prone to injury, as injury history is a much better predictor of future injury than size. https://www.hogshaven.com/2019/6/22/18658887/understanding-injuries-in-the-nfl-part-3

I can say that my needle bounces back and forth between Young and Stroud--I simply think that you do not refuse to draft the best overall talent because you are afraid he might get hurt. Analyzing an injury history is one thing, but predicting the future will get you in trouble. It will come down to this: Which is the best fit and which is the most coachable. I think we are considering variables that will not ultimately determine the outcome. For example, who won that pickup basketball game between Stroud and McCown? Why is that not news? I think I veered off topic.

Here is one way of looking at one example of how athleticism is not that big of a factor-processing is. 2 QBs were taken in the 2022 draft. Their 2021 NCAA stats: 1. The athletic QB, one of the top 4 QBs, was furious when he was not drafted in round 1. In college, he had a 62% completion rate (nine percentage points above AR 15), throwing 27 TDs vs. 12 Interceptions against lesser competition. He had 878 yards rushing. Fun to watch. Had a great combine/pro day. He fell to the third round, but went to a playoff team with a chance to develop into an NFL QB. 2. The cerebral, experienced QB with limited athletic ability (compared to the likes of the first QB) had a 71.7 completion percentage (nearly 10% better than the athletic QB and nearly 19% better than AR15), threw for over 3000 yards, throwing 19 TDs vs. 8 Interceptions against better competition. He ran for zero yards. He had a 3.8 GPA and scored very high on the S2 Cognition score. This QB was not upset that he was not drafted in round 1, but was elated when he was drafted in round 7 by a playoff team, with the last pick of the draft. 2022 Pro Comparisons: The Athlete: 0 TDs, 3 Ints. Per game-34 yards passing, 15.4 rushing yards per game. Mr. Irrelevant: 13 TDs, 4 Ints. Per game-152.7 yards passing, 1.4 rushing yards per game. The point? Go to combines and pro days and be amazed at the athleticism if you want, but be warned that processing is more important. This also relates to LBs and DBs with great 40 times but it takes them longer to diagnose the play. A lot of people are saying that AR15 has the biggest upside. Does he though? What about his statistics tell you that? Someone will take him thinking Lamar Jackson or Cam Newton, but they battled injuries and were not accurate passers, for the most part. The most upside is a QB who is going to make himself better in the film room, not the weight room. A player who knows where everyone is supposed to be and can process a WR being open before the break--a player who can change the play at the LOS without freaking out the coach. Yes, athletic QBs are great on fourth and goal, and they often use their legs to atone for their indecision in the pocket--and they make the highlight reels. Bryce Young, apparently, blew away the S2 Cognition test. I think I read Stroud was up there too. But look at these QBs--who has the best body to be successful? AR15, followed by Levis. Who has the best mind to be successful? Young, followed by Stroud. Who had the better stats in college--the stud athletes or the cerebral pocket passers? Now go and pick AR15 with the number 1 pick and see how long you remain employed.

1. The combine rationale: The timing of the trade---That is when Fitterer and Poles had the opportunity to meet. 2. NFL teams are not in the business of selling Jerseys. Winning brings in the fans, not the best athlete playing QB. I am fairly certain that Stroud or Young, if successful (and they are most likely to be successful earlier than the boom or bust Richardson) will sell a ton of Jerseys and Tepper will not care. 3. If the coaching staff thinks they can make any of these QBs work, they do not trade up to #1-they trade up to #3. 4. Assuming the Josh McCown video theory were accurate, wouldn't NOT discussing AR15 be an obvious giveaway wherein showing his video tape with the others would hide the fact that they like him? The consensus around the league is that Carolina is a good landing spot for a young QB. The OL is in tact, they did not want to trade Moore, but they have done all they can to address WR with veterans; our TE is a veteran. All signs indicate a Day 1 starter, not some super athlete who has one season of starting in college under his belt with a 54% completion percentage. That makes no sense. Do not let the flashing lights, bells, and whistles fool you--he is a great athlete, but not a great QB.

You deserve your right to your opinion, and unlike some Huddlers, you provide your reasons for your thinking. I am sorry you were called an idiot for thinking this--our moderators should not tolerate that, according to what they have said in the past. Having said that, I think this is a stretch.

Writers get paid to write. And if you put something like this out there 3 weeks before the draft, people will forget about it. However, if for some reason we draft AR, this writer gets immediate street cred. Would a new coach who is building a roster to compete right now want a project? If he likes the skill set, and we have a ton of cap room, why not pursue L.Jackson? No--I doubt a new coach would join a franchise and go out on a limb like this--

Pulled this from Walter today--he is usually missing a few: Anthony Bradford^, Offensive Tackle, LSU (COM, PRI) (Probably projects to G in the NFL---I would like this pick in round 4 or after--not sure he will be there) Julius Brents, Cornerback, Kansas State (COM) (most teams like this CB) Charlie Jones, Wide Receiver, Purdue (PRI) (I see this as a solid signing if we do it) Will Levis^, Quarterback, Kentucky (PRI, PRO) (Why waste time on Levis?) Jonathan Mingo, Wide Receiver, Ole Miss (PRI) (Strong WR candidate that could be a better pro than college player) B.J. Ojulari, Defensive End, LSU (PRI) I see this as a strong possibilty--also watch Felix from Kansas State) Bumper Pool, Linebacker, Arkansas (PRI) (Panthers will sign this guy--maybe as an undrafted free agent) Joey Porter Jr., Cornerback, Penn State (PRI) (unless we wheel and deal, this ain't happening) Anthony Richardson^, Quarterback, Florida (COM, PRI, PRO) (3 contacts---doing our homework on AR15) Drew Sanders, Linebacker, Arkansas (COM) (Possibly at 39 if Luvu goes to Edge) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Wide Receiver, Ohio State (PRI) (only if we trade up a lot) C.J. Stroud^, Quarterback, Ohio State (PRI, PRO) Bryce Young^, Quarterback, Alabama (PRI, PRO) Chandler Zavala, Offensive Guard, N.C. State (PRI)(I have seen him as early as round 3--80" wingspan at 322 lbs--nice)