Comparing Carolina & Seattle - Pre-game Stats & Analysis

[KB_fan]

Also at BBR - "The tale of the tape"

Reviewing the stats from Panthers v Seattle matchups since 2012

http://blackandbluereview.com/tale-of-the-tape-panthers-seahawks-since-2012/

Here's an excerpt. 

	SEA	CAR
Wins	4	1
Points	95	72
Total Yds	1,672	1,454
Rush Yds	512	697
Pass Yds	1,170	917
Turnovers	6	11

 

Score by Qtr	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
SEA	13	23	23	36
CAR	3	30	14	25

 

 

Our running game, limiting turnovers (giveaways), and getting off to a quick start I believe are keys to a win.

[KB_fan]

PFF Game Preview:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/01/11/pro-everything-you-need-to-know-for-seahawks-panthers/

Excerpts:

Re: Seattle:
 

Quote

 

The Seahawks have had a strong defense with very few weaknesses all season, and that was very evident against the Vikings. One thing Minnesota did try and exploit was safety Kam Chancellor (73.9) in coverage. Chancellor isn’t particularly known as a coverage stalwart, and he struggled on Sunday, allowing some big catches and missing some key tackles, as well as earning a very poorly-timed penalty.

Key player

DE Michael Bennett (90.7): Bennett has a freedom like few other defensive players in football, able to move freely and make plays based on his instinct, which is frequently right. He was Seattle’s best player on Sunday, just as he was all season. His pass rush productivity of 13.4 was second-best at his position this season, and his 8.0 run stop percentage ranked third.

 

 

Re Panthers: (I'm not very impressed with this analysis.  Seems like they mailed it in....)  I mean DUH, Luke is a great player, but WHY will he be key against Seattle?  How does his play impact THIS game?  This is pretty vanilla stuff.  And I think their grades of Olsen's run blocking are silly.  He's not as bad as they make out.  We DID lead the league in rushing much of this season (finishing 2nd), but you'd never know it from this analysis.
 

Quote

 

The bad

The Panthers’ offense is very good all-around, but one thing they have struggled with is run blocking on the edge. This is in part because of tight ends Greg Olsen (82.5) and Ed Dickson (51.7). While good receivers, they rank 115th and 116th out of 117 tight ends in terms of run blocking grade. On the line itself, left tackle Michael Oher (73.8) has a 26.2 run block grade, the worst among all tackles this season.

Pass rush is something the Panthers have struggled at, minus second-team All-Pro defensive tackle Kawann Short (90.3). He alone makes up roughly 20 percent of all their pressures this season. Defensive linemen Jared Allen (70.1) and Dwan Edwards (46.8) have struggled as pass rush specialists, generating just 47 total pressures combined all season. Defensive tackle Star Lotulelei (65.9) has rushed the passer 323 times and has registered just 13 total pressures.

Key player

Luke Kuechly (99.9): Kuechly was the best linebacker this season, so good that he almost broke our new grading scale. He finished with a 99.9 coverage grade, and a 98.4 run defense grade, both tops in the league. His 14.0 percent run stop percentage ranked second among inside linebackers, and he was the most efficient tackler, missing just one of every 24 tackle attempts.

 

 

[KB_fan]

Also from PFF, how Avril & Bennett could impact the game for the Seahawks

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/01/11/pro-michael-bennett-cliff-avril-could-determine-outcome-of-seattle-carolina/Here

Here's an excerpt.  I do agree that our Oline play will be a really huge factor in this game - actually the Oline play by both teams.
 

Quote

 

The Seattle  defensive line was a major factor against the Vikings and will need to be again this Sunday if they are to take down the mighty Carolina Panthers.

Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril combined for 11 total pressures against the Vikings on 47 pass-rushing snaps, while Bennett also chipped in a batted pass. The pair also made major contributions in the run game, bottling up Adrian Peterson (-2.2) and giving the Vikings offense nowhere to go with the ball and no time to throw it, either.

Cam Newton and the Carolina offense pose tougher questions than the Vikings did, and they will do so in better weather conditions and with a better pass-protection group. But this extremely high level of play from Bennett and Avril is not a new revelation. How this matchup goes upfront will go a long way in determining the victor in the game.

As much as people like to make the argument that Newton has nothing around him in Carolina, that simply isn’t true in terms of the offensive line he has played with this season. The group is made up of some relatively unknown players, but they have blocked well as a unit. Only right tackle Mike Remmers has a negative pass-blocking grade for the season (six sacks allowed, 46 total pressures surrendered and 11 penalties).

Even Michael Oher, who has been little short of disastrous in the run game, has been adequate as a pass-blocker, surrendering 31 total pressures in his 1,111 snaps of action. Oher is actually the only Panther with a negative run blocking grade, and a large part of Carolina’s success this season has to do with the way they successfully run the football behind their offensive line.

What is interesting, though, is that the weaker spots to target on the Panthers’ O-line are around the fringes, where both Bennett and Avril prowl, routinely making significant noise.

 

 

[pstall]

Great thread.

I think the hidden stat is the Seahawks playing their 3rd consecutive road game coming of one with extreme temperatures. 

Carolina should jump on them in the first and just ground and pound the entire 2nd half.

I also think 4th quarter 3 and outs on both sides of the ball. The Panthers on offense need to avoid back to back 3 and outs on offense and the def needs to have some 3 and outs in the 4th. This is the whole key to winning it all.

[KB_fan]

A great post by the Huddle's own @beastson definitely deserves linking here.  A matchup of the Carolina D vs. Seattle O, with GIFs of our week 6 game:

 

Don't miss this!

[KB_fan]

Also here at the Huddle, @lightsout has a nice post:  How We Measure Up

here's an interesting part of his analysis:

Quote

Seattle on the road

Wilson has thrown 8 INTs on the year. 6 of them have come when he is away. So, he hasn't fared well in hostile territory....and the Vault is hostile. However, he has only thrown 2 INTs overall since week 9. Also on the road, Wilson completes a higher percentage of his throws, but for less yards per attempt. Could be nothing, could be a look at Seattle's gameplan on the road. Quick, shorter throws to take care of the ball. Could also be indicative of his struggles in the first half of the season on the road with the interceptions.

Seattle has played only a few times on a grass surface, but their numbers aren't as impressive on grass. Also, on the season, we gave up the fewest rushing first downs (4) of all their opponents throughout the regular season. Our defense needs to be sure to repeat that.

Seattle's defense has 14 INTs. Half of those came on the sidelines. Cam is great at sideline throws and we utilize them often. Will be interesting to see how that plays into things. Most of their interceptions have come on 3rd & 6+ yards to go. Stay out of third and long.

 

[KB_fan]

The Washington Post calls Seattle a "nightmare" matchup for the Panthers:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2016/01/12/the-seahawks-are-a-nightmare-matchup-for-the-panthers-heres-why/

Here's the 1st of 3 reasons they give to explain why they believe this:

Here are three reasons why the Seahawks pose a serious threat to the Panthers’ Super Bowl hopes, even after Carolina already bested Seattle once in Week 6:

Quote

 

1. When under pressure, Cam Newton is a below-average passer. And the Seahawks have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL.

Carolina was a complete team this season, excelling on both sides of the ball. But one of its most notable areas of improvement was in the passing game.

[Looking ahead to second-round knockouts in Denver, Carolina]

Newton has been one of the most physically impressive QBs, and arguably the best running QB, since being drafted at No. 1 overall in the 2011 draft. But he made a huge leap forward this season as a passer. Just take a look at how his numbers compare this season versus last season:

Stat	2015	2014
QB rating	99.2 (8th in NFL)	82.2 (22nd)
Deep accuracy	48.6 percent (4th)	31.5 (22nd)

In other words, he’s gone from a below-average passer to one of the league’s best.

However, there is a catch: When the opposing team’s pass rush gets to him, he goes from one of the league’s best passers to a below-average one. Just take a look:

Stat	Newton	NFL Average
QB rating from a clean pocket	112.8	98.2
QB rating when under pressure	66.9	71.5

This hasn’t been much of an issue this season, in part because of how good Newton has been throwing the ball overall, and in part because of how effective he is as a scrambler and on designed runs – but most of all because the Panthers have been very good in pass protection.

That was the case in Carolina’s Week 6 win over the Seahawks, during which only one offensive line starter earned a negative pass-protection grade: right tackle Mike Remmers. But the Seahawks’ pass rush has been very disruptive as of late, with defensive ends Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril both ranking in the top five of quarterback pressures at the position this season, and rookie Frank Clark emerging as an effective third option. And not only could they again find success coming off the edge against Remmers, but Carolina left tackle Michael Oher has earned poor pass-blocking grades in two of his last three games.

 

 

[KB_fan]

By the way, I'm curious about that stat above re: Cam's QB rating when under pressure.  They don't specify whether it's his career stat or 2015 only.

Elsewhere this year I've seen stats that Cam has been excellent recently against the blitz and pressure.  Does anyone have 2015 stats about Cam's accuracy & success when pressured?

I agree with the Wash Post that our Oline play is key, but I'm not sure the stats they quote re: Cam against pressure are so relevant right now...

[KB_fan]

CBS Sports has an article comparing Cam & Russell.

http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2016/01/12/wilson-and-newton-different-approaches-to-winning/

Much of it is pretty silly - focusing on the QBs personalities - Cam's dancing, etc. etc.  But one stat caught my eye.

Don't settle for the "but Russell Wilson has been on fire at the end of the season" nonsense.  Cam has too:
 

Quote

 

Between week 11 and week 15, Russell Wilson completed 75 percent of his passes for 1,420 yards, with 19 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Oddly enough, Wilson’s counterpart this weekend, Cam Newton, joined Wilson in production, making them the only pair of quarterbacks to toss at least 18 TDs over a five-week period.

 

 

[PeaceHawk]

This thread has been amazing. Thanks for the time KBFan you took to put it together. 

The stats don't lie, both teams are really good. The past few posts speak about pass rush and my observations would be that the Seahawks improvement on Defense over the end of the season is all related to Michael Bennet, #72. He has all the freedom to line up where he wants and is flat out disruptive. Sure, he will get at least one offsides, maybe even 2, but it is all part of what makes him so good.

If Carolina's o-line can control Bennett and Avril then I give Seattle almost no chance of winning. .

[KB_fan]

In a preview of key questions ahead of the Divisional playoffs, NFL.com thinks the biggest question for our game is the secondary, with Bene & Peanut out:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000621125/article/six-biggest-mysteries-of-the-divisional-round?campaign=Twitter_atn

5. Can the Panthers' secondary be exploited?

 

 

[Sorry, I can't seem to delete the black box related to a video at the NFL.com site]

Ron Rivera and Sean McDermott have shown an impressive ability to coach up their secondary regardless of the talent level. They have their work cut out for them after losing Charles Tillman and Bene' Benwikere late in the regular season. It will be interesting to see if a streaking Russell Wilson can pick on stand-ins Robert McClain and Cortland Finnegan. Throw out the game tape from last week's disappointing showing for Seattle's offense on the third-coldest day the NFL has ever experienced. Wilson is playing the best ball of his impressive career.

[KB_fan]

At MMQB:  Andy Benoit has an article outlining why the Seahawks are extremely dangerous, playing their best football.

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/01/11/seattle-seahawks-russell-wilson-darrell-bevell-offense-nfl-playoffs

Some of the points are the growth of Russell Wilson & also their offensive coordinator (sounds familiar).  The article also makes a point about their improved stability at corner late in the season.  This of course is exactly the opposite for us.,  It's an interesting point to consider:
 

Quote

 

Perhaps some of Richard’s schematic scale-backs had to do with newfound stability at the cornerback position, which is Exhibit D. Plagued by the capriciousness of an undisciplined Cary Williams outside, and a turnstile of underwhelming options in the slot, Richard may have felt he didn’t have the personnel to simply line up in basic coverages and out-execute opponents. But in Week 12 against the Steelers, DeShawn Shead stepped in at Williams’ right corner spot. Also, Jeremy Lane returned from the torn ACL and broken wrist suffered on his interception runback in Super Bowl 49. Williams was deactivated and, eight days later, released.

Shead proved to have the size and physicality to play on the perimeter, though Lane, the more experienced and athletic of the two, eventually captured the starting job. Lane had always been a standout slot defender and nothing more, but in Week 16 he completed a gradual transition to right corner. Shead has now assumed the slot duties. However the responsibilities are sliced up, the Seahawks are stable at corner again, allowing Richard Sherman to exclusively play his usual left outside position. And that stability allows Kris Richard to call the mix of basic Cover 3 and select man-to-man concepts that have a loaded lineup playing with optimum speed and awareness.

 

 

[KB_fan]

NFL Network previews the game:

http://www.panthers.com/media-vault/videos/Previewing-the-Seahawks-Panthers-showdown/460cc590-e994-4615-bf6c-01e851820852

focus: containing Wilson, Carolina'a run game (especially Cam's role)

[KB_fan]

Panthers.com has a short entry highlighting the personnel changes that have been made on both teams since the week 6 game:

http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/How-personnel-changed-since-Week-6/0b02d5a8-ce2b-4434-9aee-4f0e6f535154

Excerpt:

Quote

 

Below is a look at some notable differences for the two teams.

CHANGES FOR CAROLINA: Offensively, the Panthers’ starting personnel is identical to what it was in Week 6. One area of noticeable growth, however, has been the emergence of rookie wide receiver Devin Funchess, who became more reliable and caught five touchdown passes in the second half of the season.

Defensively, Carolina looks different up front and in the back end. Defensive ends Charles Johnson (short term IR) and Jared Allen did not play in Week 6 (Kony Ealy and Wes Horton were the starters), but both are slated to start Sunday. Cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere are on injured reserve, so mid-season signings Robert McClain and Cortland Finnegan have taken their place.

CHANGES FOR SEATTLE: In Week 6, tight end Jimmy Graham posted a game-high eight catches for 140 yards and wide receiver Ricardo Lockette recorded a highlight-reel 40-yard touchdown catch, but both suffered season-ending injuries since.

Running back Marshawn Lynch, who rushed for 54 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers in October, somewhat surprisingly missed the Wild Card Playoff against Minnesota with an abdomen injury, and his status is uncertain. His backup, rookie Thomas Rawls, suffered a season-ending injury. Thus, Christine Michael, who was traded to Dallas in September and later brought back to Seattle in December, could be the first option once again.

On defense, cornerback Cary Williams, who started back in Week 6, is no longer on the team. Jeremy Lane, who was on the physically unable to perform list at the time, has taken over that spot.

Pro Bowl linebacker Bobby Wagner did not play in the first meeting due to injury, but he will be directing the defense on Sunday.