Comparing Carolina & Seattle - Pre-game Stats & Analysis

[KB_fan]

Nice article at C-S-R on Panthers & Seahawks matchups

http://www.catscratchreader.com/2016/1/15/10761990/carolina-panthers-seattle-seahawks-key-matchups-cam-newton-greg-olsen-luke-kuechly-josh-norman

Two excerpts:

first a review of the week 6 game:

 

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Greg Olsen vs. Kam Chancellor/Earl Thomas

Greg Olsen managed to get open for Cam Newton all game, logging 7 receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown, including the game winner that came down to a miscommunication between Chancellor and Richard Sherman. Olsen's been held down the last couple of games, so Seattle will likely try to follow that game plan to keep Olsen under wraps.

Cam Newton vs. Seattle LB's

Despite an outstanding game winning drive and two drives where the run game came back to life, Cam was sacked by Bruce Irvin twice and struggled with pressure. Cam also ran 7 times for 30 yards and a score. I'd call this one a push, though Cam was able to get yards and make passes when the Panthers really needed them.

 

expectations for playoff key matchups:

 

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Josh Norman vs. Doug Baldwin

Last time around Jimmy Graham was still on the field, and while Luke Willson will still be a factor, Baldwin has been the security blanket for Russel Wilson, putting up unbelievable numbers to cap off the season. He was one of the league leaders in receiving touchdowns and put up the only TD in Seattle's game with Minnesota last week. Even with the presence of Tyler* Lockett, Jermaine Kearse, and others, Baldwin has been a huge part of Seattle's late push. Josh Norman's been balling out all year but has struggled in recent weeks. I expect the Panthers to have Norman shadow Baldwin in an effort to take away Wilson's number one option. This could be a huge, and fun one, to watch.

Greg Olsen vs. Kam Chancellor/Earl Thomas

I'm going to preface this by saying that I believe Devin Funchess will be involved early and often this week. The Panthers strategy in the divisional round last year was to get Kelvin Benjamin involved early, and that's because Seattle brings a lot of great players in the secondary. Ted Ginn and Philly Brown will be involved in the passing game, but Funchess brings a physical matchup that neither of them bring and he can make the contested catches.

That being said, Olsen needs to be involved in this game. Seattle is going to make a concerted effort to take him out, but Olsen is the most consistent guy for Cam. He needs to be involved to move the chains against a defense that's playing it's best ball. Chancellor allowed Olsen to score the game winner last time around, and he's not going to let that happen again. I don't expect another 100+ yard stat line from Olsen, but for the Panthers to succeed he needs to make those crucial conversions.

 

 

[KB_fan]

19 hours ago, Raskle said:

I didn't see, in a quick glance of all the previous posts, but I'm curious as to how each QBs yards are gained: either through the air in a long pass, or a dump off with a lot of yards gained by the WR running.

 

KBF, if you haven't done so already, would you mind gathering the stats on that one please? I'd like to see if their yards should be attributed to touch passing or the agility of their WR to make defenders miss / out-hustle DBs. I think  it would make for interesting conversation at a minimum.

Thanks for all of your hard work, it's truly appreciated!!

Sorry I didn't get back to this thread last night.  My cooking & baking took longer than expected.

I tend to look more at team stats than player stats, so I may not know the best sites to use for QB stats, but Sporting Charts has a bunch of good info.

QB Air Yards:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2015/

Among starting QBs, Cam ranked 4th with Avg Air Yards.attempt of 4.79 yards

Wilson was 8th with 4.57 yards

61.8% of Cam's passing yards were air yards./ 38.2% Yards after catch.

54.8% of Russell Wilson's passing yards were air yards / 45.2% Yards after catch

 

Panthers Yards After Catch are among the lowest in the league, but interestingly Carson Palmer & Big Ben's YAC % stats are even lower.

 

Russell leads in terns of adjusted net yards/attempt 7.7 vs 7.2 for Cam

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/player-adjusted-net-yards-per-attempt-statistics/2015/

 

Cam  & Russ are nearly tied in terms of touchdown percentage  7.1% / 7.0%

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/player-passing-touchdown-percentage/2015/

And also nearly tied in passing big plays: 32 Russell / 31 Cam

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/player-passing-big-plays/2015/

 

I also like the detailed data on QB incompletions:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-incompletions-by-type/2015/

However to accurately compare the QBs, one would need percentages of bad throws, drops, etc., not just absolute numbers.

 

Cam had 4.65% dropped passes vs. 2.48% by Wilson

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/dropped-passes-by-quarterback/2015/

 

 

[Raskle]

Thank you very much KBF. This lends credence to what I've suspected for a while now, in that Wilson is good, but his receivers definitely help make him look better. Now, it can be made that each team's philosophy determines that more than anything, as we're more likely to take long shots down field versus their intermediate passes with their receivers turning on the jets after the catch. But, this does help elucidate and dispel the widely-held misbelief that total passing yards should count towards how we rate QBs:

 

Total passing yards is a good measuring stick of the team's ability to gain ground through the air.

Total passing yards is an absolute poo way to determine a QB's ability to gain ground through the air.

 

Hypothetical example: The 1990 Detroit Lions had Rodney Peete as QB, with the greatest of all time Barry Sanders as RB. Peete dumps it off to Sanders for a three yard sweep, which Sanders manages to take 95 yards and a TD. Who should really get the credit for that, Peete or Sanders? Would anyone (as much as I like the guy) call Peete a great QB, especially from that play? I would certainly think not, yet we continue with this fallacy that yards and completions are a good way to measure how a QB does in a game. They should count towards a certain amount in identifying and tracking, but they should by no means be the only stats that matter. Past the obvious W-L record, there's more than just a few items to consider is all that I'm saying.

 

Btw, I feel bad for Bradford after seeing those stats - 33?? Cripes!!

[KB_fan]

Max Henson a Panthers.com - Five things to watch

http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/Five-Things-To-Watch-Panthers-vs-Seahawks/9867bcb1-3f6e-4e26-9ef6-43346e0d7e26

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1. MARQUEE QUARTERBACK DUEL: Cam Newton and Russell Wilson are two of the brightest young stars in the NFL, and they entered the postseason at the top of their respective games.

In the last seven games of the regular season, Newton – the frontrunner for league MVP – compiled 24 total touchdowns and just one interception. In that same span, Wilson produced 25 total touchdowns and one interception.

In recent meetings between these teams, the end result has essentially boiled down to these multidimensional playmaking quarterbacks. Which one can make that special play late in the game to push their team to victory?

As Newton said, this Divisional Playoff is simply must-see TV.

2. CAN DEFENSES KEEP THEM CONTAINED? Newton and Wilson present so many unique challenges because of their ability to extend plays.

Newton is a powerful force with designed runs, and he can shrug off defenders in the pocket to keep plays alive. Wilson is quick and agile, and he’s always shown a knack for slipping out of trouble (see the fumbled snap that turned into 35-yard completion last week at Minnesota).

"He makes magic out of nothing," said cornerback Josh Norman , whose words could describe both Wilson and Newton.

They’re tough to contain, but that’s the goal for both defenses.

Linebacker Bruce Irvin has helped Seattle’s cause in that respect, recording seven sacks in four games against the Panthers.

Carolina’s Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kawann Short sacked Wilson twice when the teams met in Week 6, and that interior rush will be critical.

"We have to contain the rush lanes, and we know Wilson is a spin backwards kind of guy," Short said. "We have to stay disciplined, stay on the ground, and everybody needs to rush to the ball.

"It’s tough. You want to keep him in the pocket and collapse the pocket. He’s a guy that finds a way, but as a defense we have to stop him. We have to rush together."

Because once Wilson escapes pressure, he and his receivers look for big plays down the field.

"It’s very difficult. You have to plaster," Norman said. "These plays can be like three seconds but when that guy gets out, he extends that sucker to like 10. You just have to be on your guys as much as you can just knowing where everybody is. Scan the field knowing that he is going to get out of the pocket and make guys move. The wide receivers are taught and trained that once the play breaks down, stick and go high. We just have to stick and go high with them."