Week 1: Panthers Loss to Denver - Post-game stats & analysis

[KB_fan]

Prior to the game, I did an analysis of prior week 1 contests since 2011.

Now that we've got the stats from the Denver game, I'll be posting a few thoughts about how this loss compares to prior season openers - what is encouraging, what is worrisome.

But before I get into specific game stats, I want to post a table that perhaps puts the loss to Denver in perspective. 

• Opponent record prior season means the season prior to the contest.  So Arizona 2010, Seattle 2012, Denver 2015 etc.  Final record in relevant season means the opponent's end of season record in the year we played them.  So, Arizona 2011, Seattle 2013, etc.  These two stats give a sense of strength of schedule - was the opponent a strong team when we played them, or not?
•  Panthers prior historical record vs. opponent is our career W-L record up until the game in question.
• Panthers current actual record vs opponent since 2011 is just what is says.  It is how we've played this team since 2011 (i.e. even including and following the game in question).  This is just an attempt to show how we currently match up with this opponent. 

Look at our 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015 Season Openers.   All against teams that were VERY bad the prior season, and which continued to be bad to average - none had a winning record in the season we opened against them.   We had winning historical records against 2 of these 3 teams.  And yet we went 2 -2 in these games.

I think this table shows that a very very good comparison to our loss to Denver on Thursday night would be our loss to Seattle in 2013. 

Heartbreaking.  A game we could have (should have?!) won against a very strong team. (Seattle was the eventual SB champ that season, Denver of course the current champ.  Sigh.) and both are teams we've historically struggled against and basically among our toughest current nemeses.

Well, what happened in 2013?  We lost a heartbreaker, in the season opener, yet we went on to a 12-4 season...

Hopefully we'll see a similar or better record in 2016, with an even better ending... winning it all.  I think this loss can make us stronger. 

Later today I'll be posting a little more about the comparisons of the Denver game to the Seattle game and also comparing to other week 1 results and averages.

[KB_fan]

Don't miss Jeremy's closer look at and analysis of three of Denver's big run plays. 

http://www.carolinahuddle.com/2016/09/11/carolina-panthers-run-defense/

It's helpful in terms of putting some of the big gashes against us in perspective.

[KB_fan]

In the discussion thread re: Jeremy's article about Denver's 3 big run plays, I just posted this.  It gives details of Denver's 6 "big plays" (10+ yards) rushing.  This should help those of you who want to look more closely at the drives in question..

 

By my count, Denver had 6 rushing plays of 10 yards or more.  (Carolina had 3).

Here's the list:

1.  Denver drive 1.  Quarter 1, 13:01 remaining.  2nd and 5 on CAR 47.  C.J. Anderson middle for 13 yards (tackle by James Bradberry)

2. Denver drive 3.  Quarter 2, 14:14 remaining.  1st & 10 on DEN 35.  C.J. Anderson left tackle for 28 yards (tackle by Tre Boston)

[The next play was an 8 yard gain:  Trevor Siemian right tackle for 8 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly), then 2 plays later, the 3rd big play]

3.  Denver drive 3. Q2 12:23 remaining,  3rd & 1 on CAR 28:  Andy Janovich right guard for 28 yards, touchdown

4. Denver drive 6:  Q3 10:05 remaining, 1st & 10 on CAR 40.   C.J. Anderson right guard for 10 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly)

5. Denver drive 8:  Q3 3:19 remaining, 2nd & 4 on DEN 28.   Trevor Siemian right end for 11 yards (tackle by Kurt Coleman)

6. Same drive, Denver drive 8, 3 plays later.   Q3 1:38 remaining, 1st & 10 at the 50 Yd line.  C.J. Anderson right tackle for 10 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly)

 

Generally the run defense was better in the 4th quarter, with only one largish rush - a 9 yard gain very early in the 4th.

[KB_fan]

In case it's helpful, here's a quick table I put together comparing our rushing yards allowed and YPC allowed for the 2011 - 2015 seasons, versus the week 1 game totals of our opponents.

Even last year when we had an excellent defense against the run in terms of our season totals, we allowed JAX a pretty high YPC on their rushes (21 attempts).  So, it's not unprecedented for our run defense to be a bit out of sync in the beginning of the season and improve.

[KB_fan]

One stat that was a disappointment to me in Thursday's game was our "big play" stats and a pretty negative big play differential.

Big plays (10+ yards rushing / 25+ yards passing) were a big part of our success last year, and we did a good job of limiting our opponents big plays.

Via Sporting Charts, here's a custom chart I created showing our total big plays (rushing & passing) and our opponents big plays, and the year big play differential over the Panthers' history:

The green line is the Panthers big plays per season.  The blue line is our opponents' total big plays.

The red line is the big play differential. 

I added in the thick black line to more clearly show were the 0 axis was.

In 2015 we had our best ever big play differential at 34  (95 Panthers big plays vs 61 opponents big plays)

 Note that in all 5 seasons under Cam & Rom the big play differential has been positive, the first time we've had a 5 year streak in that stat.

Here's what the Rushing Big Plays for & against looked like:

Obviously, the 2015 stats are awesome, and it would be fantastic to see us continue to dominate our opponents in rushing.

But, perhaps not surprisingly, given that we just played one of the league's toughest defenses, we did NOT have a positive rushing big play differential on Thursday.

I'll post stats for the Denver game below, also showing what 2015 looked like in terms of big plays game by game.

[KB_fan]

Here are what the Big Play stats looked like for the Denver game.

First Rushing:

Denver had 3 more rushes of 10 yards+ than we did... 

 

Here are the passing stats - the Panthers had 0 big passing plays to Denver's 1.  So, again, a negative differential:

 

So here's the big play differential summary:

A big play differential of -4 matches our worst total of the 2015 regular season.

For those who might be interested, I'll post the game by game big play stats for the 2015 season below.

 

[KB_fan]

The 2015 Rushing Big Play stats:

Only in two games of the regular season did we have a negative big play differential.  Against Seattle, probably the toughest opponent we played in the regular season, and, surprise, against Jacksonville in week 1.  Hmmm.  Maybe we struggle to make big plays in week 1?

Look what happened in week 2 vs. Houston and their vaunted defense... our highest rushing big play total of the season.  Let's hope we can repeat this against San Francisco!

 

Now for the Passing Big Plays:

Five weeks we blanked our opponents in passing big plays.  Obviously our ability to do this again in 2016 could because of our young secondary....

 

Here's the overall Big Play totals and Big Play differential for all the 2015 regular season games:

Only in 3 games did we have a negative big play differential.  Week 1 v. Jax;  Week 6 vs SEA (the same total we just had against Denver, though obviously we eeked out the win in Seattle), and our loss to Atlanta in week 16.

Again, look how we came back from a shaky start against JAX to dominate Houston in terms of big plays...

I'm hoping we can also rebound strongly against San Francisco, and that we've got our worst game behind us now for the season.

[KB_fan]

You can click on those tables above and zoom in to see them more clearly.   Here's maybe a clearer summary of all 2015 regular season Big Play data game by game.

[KB_fan]

I imagine someone will ask about this, so I probably should answer.   There's a reason that my 2015 data above is only for the regular season.  I never finished charting the post-season because I lost heart after the SB loss, and also was in a very busy work season...

So prior to tonight, I couldn't have told you off-hand what our big play results were in the Super Bowl.   I expected them to be pretty similar to Thursday night's game.

I finally broke down and just reviewed the Super Bowl gamebook. Imagine my surprise when I discovered the big play situation was very different:

Rushing Big Plays:    CAR 5  / DEN 2  = +3 CAR

Passing Big Plays:  CAR 2 / DEN 1 = +1 CAR

Overall Big Play Differential:   CAR 7 / DEN 3 = +4 CAR  or the inverse of Thursday's result.

Just goes to show you can't focus on one stat and expect it to explain every game.  It does go to prove that we really did have some opportunities in Santa Clara against Denver in the SB....,

 

In any case, big plays have been an increasing important and exciting part of our offense the past few seasons, and if we are to see success in 2016 I'm thinking we'll need to see figures similar to those in 2015.

Apologies for this somewhat tangential analysis of big plays in 2015...  I'll get back to more detailed Week 1 CAR v DEN game analysis tomorrow.

[KB_fan]

I was just browsing online to see if I could find any other interesting game analysis articles...

There's a short article at C-S-R with 3 plays to love and 3 plays to hate:

http://www.derp/2016/9/9/12863730/3-plays-to-love-3-plays-to-hate-panthers-at-broncos-week-1

One of the comments on the article got my attention about what may have been a crucial turning point in the game.  I think this point has merit.  What do you all think:

 

Quote

 

I believe that a huge momentum swinging play came on the 5th play of the third quarter.
We ended Q2 with a 19 play TD drive that had the Denver D gassed. We started Q3 with the ball. We got 10 yards for a 1st down in the first two plays. We had 3rd and 1 past the 40 yard line. Another long scoring drive would have given us a 13 or 17 point lead. Would have drained their defense. And all we needed was one more yard. We ran cam to the left and it was well defended. However Cam could have dove forward to the inside of the block and gotten that yard. Instead he tried to go around and outside. He did not get around. Did not get the yard. That was our opportunity to step on their throat. But we tried for a bigger play and the rest of the half was history. Sad history.
That is my turning point play of the game.

Posted by Superman89 on September 10, 2016 | 2:21 AM

 

 

[TapRackCap]

Many people mentioned that moment and it stick our to me as well. A simple Brady style Qb sneak would have been sufficient.

I would be interested in play calling 1st half or first 3qt vs the last. My impression was deeper routes were being called in the 4th.

[KB_fan]

18 minutes ago, TapRackCap said:

I would be interested in play calling 1st half or first 3qt vs the last. My impression was deeper routes were being called in the 4th.

Good question, unfortunately this isn't my forte.  I'm still quite a newbie in terms of understanding play calls and routes...

I can find trends and anomalies in looking at data and stats on paper, but I'm not the expert in terms of film study, I'm afraid.

[TapRackCap]

12 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Good question, unfortunately this isn't my forte.  I'm still quite a newbie in terms of understanding play calls and routes...

I can find trends and anomalies in looking at data and stats on paper, but I'm not the expert in terms of film study, I'm afraid.

It wouldn't be perfect but what about avg reception minus YAC by quarter?

[KB_fan]

1 minute ago, TapRackCap said:

It wouldn't be perfect but what about avg reception minus YAC by quarter?

Sure, I can maybe play around with that.  Got to get some sleep now... it's nearing 2 a.m. here.  I'm still on East Coast time after nearly a week back in Africa.  Dang jetlag.

One resource might be Pro Football Reference.  They have a pass charting feature:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201609080den.htm#targets_directions::none

It doesn't list the quarter of the pass, but combining that with the play by play account, you might be able to get a sense of various routes being called.